An evaluation of the effectiveness of Value-at-Risk (VaR) models for Australian banks under Basel III

This study compares Value-at-Risk (VaR) measures for Australian banks over a period that includes the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) to determine whether the methodology and parameter selection are important for capital adequacy holdings that will ultimately support a bank in a crisis period. VaR methodology promoted under Basel II was largely criticised during the GFC for its failure to capture downside risk. However, results from this study indicate that 1-year parametric and historical models produce better measures of VaR than models with longer time frames. VaR estimates produced using Monte Carlo simulations show a high percentage of violations but with lower average magnitude of a violation when they occur. VaR estimates produced by the ARMA GARCH model also show a relatively high percentage of violations, however, the average magnitude of a violation is quite low. Our findings support the design of the revised Basel II VaR methodology which has also been adopted under Basel III.

Incentivizing innovation: A review of the Brazilian federal innovation support programs

Innovation is the transformation of knowledge of any kind into new products or services in the market. Its importance as a production factor is widely acknowledged. In the age of the knowledge-based economy innovation became critical for any company or even country to compete globally. Many countries are encouraging innovation through various mechanisms, and one of the most widely used is the provision of special incentives for innovation. This paper investigates incentive systems for the growth of technology companies as a strategy to promote knowledge-based economic development. As for the case investigations the study focuses on an emerging economy, Brazil. The research is based upon the available literature, best practices, government policy and review of incentive systems. The findings provide insights from the case study in a country context and some lessons learned for other countries using incentive systems to boost the innovation capabilities of their technology companies.

Social media in selected Australian federal and state election campaigns, 2010-15

Campaigning in Australian election campaigns at local, state, and federal levels is fundamentally affected by the fact that voting is compulsory in Australia, with citizens who are found to have failed to cast their vote subject to fines. This means that - contrary to the situation in most other nations – elections are decided not by which candidate or party has managed to encourage the largest number of nominal supporters to make the effort to cast their vote, but by some 10-20% of genuine ‘swinging voters’ who change their party preferences from one election to the next. Political campaigning is thus aimed less at existing party supporters (so-called ‘rusted on’ voters whose continued support for the party is essentially taken for granted) than at this genuinely undecided middle of the electorate. Over the past decades, this has resulted in a comparatively timid, vague campaigning style from both major party blocs (the progressive Australian Labor Party [ALP] and the conservative Coalition of the Liberal and National Parties [L/NP]). Election commitments that run the risk of being seen as too partisan and ideological are avoided as they could scare away swinging voters, and recent elections have been fought as much (or more) on the basis of party leaders’ perceived personas as they have on stated policies, even though Australia uses a parliamentary system in which the Prime Minister and state Premiers are elected by their party room rather than directly by voters. At the same time, this perceived lack of distinctiveness in policies between the major parties has also enabled the emergence of new, smaller parties which (under Australia’s Westminster-derived political system) have no hope of gaining a parliamentary majority but could, in a close election, come to hold the balance of power and thus exert disproportionate influence on a government which relies on their support.

Changing Lived Worlds of Contemporary Amazonian Native Young People : Manchineri Youths in the Reserve and the City, Brazil-Acre

This thesis discusses the contemporary construction of the lived worlds of indigenous Amazonian youths. Today’s native peoples are considerably affected by the processes of globalization and urbanization, which have led to new ways of relating to their cultural traditions. This work presents a case study of Manchineri youngsters aged between 14 and 24 years old living in Acre state in Brazilian Amazonia. The Arawak-speaking Manchineri number some 1,000 people; their legally demarcated reserve is situated next to the River Yaco. The research is based on ethnographic material collected in the Mamoadate reserve and in the state capital, Rio Branco. By comparing the youth in different physical and social environments (the reserve and the city), my attempt has been to search for the most typical elements maintained, altered and created in the current lived worlds of Manchineri youths. Fieldwork methods included interviews, participant observation, photographs, video recordings, and drawings. The material was analyzed within the multidisciplinary framework of the social and cultural construction of knowledge. The study applies the concepts of social field, symbolic capital, and habitus as they have been used by Pierre Bourdieu; perspective as developed recently in Amazonian ethnology; the sacred as a cultural category as understood in the study of religion; and individual and person as concepts central to anthropology and sociology. Additionally, the study can be contextualized within youth studies, Latin American studies, and urban studies. The results of the study show that the everyday lives of young Amazonian native people are formed by a complex mixture of ‘modernity’ and ‘tradition’, fragmentation, and transitions between different conceptual frameworks. Part II discusses the ethnographic material in depth and shows that indigenous adolescents act from a variety of social perspectives: the native youth’s own ethnic group, divided into sub-groups, especially into urban residents and those living in the reserve; ancestors, super-human agents and spirits; other indigenous groups and non-natives. Consequently, besides the traditional initiation ritual, we find various contemporary rites of passage to adulthood: state-education, learning traditional practices, shamanism, matrimony, and transitions between the reserve and urban areas. According to these results, new social roles, political organization, responsibilities, and in general the desire to be respected, require both ‘modern’ and ‘traditional’ abilities. In Part III, the study shows that the current power relations constituted by new social contacts, ethnic recognition, and cooperation with different institutions have resulted in the formation of new social fields: youth cultures, the ethnic group, shamanic practices, the ethnopolitical movement, and indigenous students. The capacity of young Amazonian Indians to act in contemporary social fields produces them as full persons. The study also argues that the elements of the lived worlds can be divided into these social fields. When focusing on these fields, it became evident that these comprise the strategies adopted by young Indians to break through social and cultural barriers.

Dynamics of plant populations in Heteropogon contortus(black speargrass) pastures on a granite landscape in southern Queensland. 2. Seed production and soil seed banks of H. contortus

Seed production and soil seed hanks of H. contortus were studied in a subset of treatments within an extensive grazing study conducted in H. contortus pasture in southern Queensland between 1990 and 1996. Seed production of H. contortus in autumn ranged from 260 to 1800 seeds/m2 with much of this variation due to differences in rainfall between years. Seed production was generally higher in the silver-leaved ironbark than in the narrow-leaved ironbark land class and was also influenced by a consistent stocking rate x pasture type interaction. Inflorescence density was the main factor contributing to the variable seed production and was related to the rainfall received during February. The number of seeds per inflorescence was unaffected by seasonal rainfall, landscape position, stocking rate or legume oversowing. Seed viability was related to the rainfall received during March. Soil seed banks in spring varied from 130 to 520 seeds/m2 between 1990 and 1995 with generally more seed present in the silver-leaved ironbark than in the narrow-leaved ironbark land class. There were poor relationships between viable seed production and the size of the soil seed bank, and between the size of the soil seed bank and seedling recruitment. This study indicates that H. contortus has the potential to produce relatively large amounts of seed and showed that the seasonal pattern of rainfall plays a major role in achieving this potential

Models of reserve manpower

Absenteeism is one of the major problems of Indian industries. It necessitates the employment of more manpower than the jobs require, resulting in the increase of manpower costs, and lowers the efficiency of plant operation through lowered performance and higher rejects. It also causes machine idleness, if extra manpower is not hired, resulting in disrupted work schedules and assignments. Several studies have investigated the causes of absenteeism (Vaid 1967) for example and their remedy and relationship between absenteeism and turnover with a suggested model for diagnosis and treatment (Hawk 1976) However, the production foremen and supervisor will face the operating task of determining how many extra operatives are to be hired in order to stave off the adverse effects of absenteeism on the man-machine system. This paper deals with a class of reserve manpower models based on the reject allowance model familiar in quality control literature. The present study considers, in addition to absenteeism, machine failures and the graded nature of manpower met within production systems and seeks to find optimal reserve manpower through computer simulation.

Herman Sommerfeld (center) with other reserve soldiers in military uniform Portraits Men

Digital Image

Innovative management of herbicide resistant weeds - seed banks and soil biology

The project will evaluate seed bank depletion of key northern herbicide resistant weeds under different environments, cropping systems, crop agronomies and non-chemical control tactics. The project will also evaluate soil biology and seed bank relationships to explain differences in seed bank persistence.

Persistence of bellyache bush (Jatropha gossypifolia L.) soil seed banks

Bellyache bush (Jatropha gossypifolia L.) is an invasive shrub that adversely impacts agricultural and natural systems of northern Australia. While several techniques are available to control bellyache bush, depletion of soil seed banks is central to its management. A 10-year study determined the persistence of intact and ant-discarded bellyache bush seeds buried in shade cloth packets at six depths (ranging from 0 to 40 cm) under both natural rainfall and rainfall-excluded conditions. A second study monitored changes in seedling emergence over time, to provide an indication of the natural rate of seed bank depletion at two sites (rocky and heavy clay) following the physical removal of all bellyache bush plants. Persistence of seed in the burial trial varied depending on seed type, rainfall conditions and burial depth. No viable seeds of bellyache bush remained after 72 months irrespective of seed type under natural rainfall conditions. When rainfall was excluded seeds persisted for much longer, with a small portion (0.4%) of ant-discarded seeds still viable after 120 months. Seed persistence was prolonged (> 96 months to decline to < 1% viability) at all burial depths under rainfall-excluded conditions. In contrast, under natural rainfall, surface located seeds took twice as long (70 months) to decline to 1% viability compared with buried seeds (35 months). No seedling emergence was observed after 58 months and 36 months at the rocky and heavy clay soil sites, respectively. These results suggest that the required duration of control programs on bellyache bush may vary due to the effect of biotic and abiotic factors on persistence of soil seed banks.

How your shopping choices will help Coles and Woolworths take on the banks

The days when Coles and Woolworths only sold groceries are long gone. Both are now established players in a broad range of consumer markets, with interests in liquor and hotels, fuel and convenience, general merchandise and mobile phones. With a network of over 1,600 supermarkets, 1,100 service stations, 2,200 liquor stores and nearly 400 hotels, the supermarket duo are now getting ready for a war with Australia’s big four banks.

Shari'ah supervision, corporate governance and performance: Conventional vs. Islamic banks

The performance and accountability of boards of directors and effectiveness of governance mechanisms continue to be a matter of concern. Focusing on differences between conventional banks and Islamic banks, we examine the effect of (i) Shari-ah supervision boards, (ii) board structure and (iii) CEO-power on performance during the period 2005-2011. We find Shari'ah supervision boards positively impact on Islamic banks' performance when they perform a supervisory role, but the impact is negligible when they have only an advisory role. The effect of board structure (Board size and board independence) and CEO power (CEO-chair duality and internally recruited CEO) on the performance of Islamic banks is overall negative. Our findings provide support for the positive contribution of Shari'ah supervision boards overall negative. Our findings provide support for the positive contribution of Shari'ah supervision boards overall negative. Our findings provide support for the positive contribution of Shari'ah supervision boards but also emphasize the need for enforcement and regulatory mechanism for them to be more effective.

Where and how to conserve: Extending the scope of spatial reserve network design

Ongoing habitat loss and fragmentation threaten much of the biodiversity that we know today. As such, conservation efforts are required if we want to protect biodiversity. Conservation budgets are typically tight, making the cost-effective selection of protected areas difficult. Therefore, reserve design methods have been developed to identify sets of sites, that together represent the species of conservation interest in a cost-effective manner. To be able to select reserve networks, data on species distributions is needed. Such data is often incomplete, but species habitat distribution models (SHDMs) can be used to link the occurrence of the species at the surveyed sites to the environmental conditions at these locations (e.g. climatic, vegetation and soil conditions). The probability of the species occurring at unvisited location is next predicted by the model, based on the environmental conditions of those sites. The spatial configuration of reserve networks is important, because habitat loss around reserves can influence the persistence of species inside the network. Since species differ in their requirements for network configuration, the spatial cohesion of networks needs to be species-specific. A way to account for species-specific requirements is to use spatial variables in SHDMs. Spatial SHDMs allow the evaluation of the effect of reserve network configuration on the probability of occurrence of the species inside the network. Even though reserves are important for conservation, they are not the only option available to conservation planners. To enhance or maintain habitat quality, restoration or maintenance measures are sometimes required. As a result, the number of conservation options per site increases. Currently available reserve selection tools do however not offer the ability to handle multiple, alternative options per site. This thesis extends the existing methodology for reserve design, by offering methods to identify cost-effective conservation planning solutions when multiple, alternative conservation options are available per site. Although restoration and maintenance measures are beneficial to certain species, they can be harmful to other species with different requirements. This introduces trade-offs between species when identifying which conservation action is best applied to which site. The thesis describes how the strength of such trade-offs can be identified, which is useful for assessing consequences of conservation decisions regarding species priorities and budget. Furthermore, the results of the thesis indicate that spatial SHDMs can be successfully used to account for species-specific requirements for spatial cohesion - in the reserve selection (single-option) context as well as in the multi-option context. Accounting for the spatial requirements of multiple species and allowing for several conservation options is however complicated, due to trade-offs in species requirements. It is also shown that spatial SHDMs can be successfully used for gaining information on factors that drive a species spatial distribution. Such information is valuable to conservation planning, as better knowledge on species requirements facilitates the design of networks for species persistence. This methods and results described in this thesis aim to improve species probabilities of persistence, by taking better account of species habitat and spatial requirements. Many real-world conservation planning problems are characterised by a variety of conservation options related to protection, restoration and maintenance of habitat. Planning tools therefore need to be able to incorporate multiple conservation options per site, in order to continue the search for cost-effective conservation planning solutions. Simultaneously, the spatial requirements of species need to be considered. The methods described in this thesis offer a starting point for combining these two relevant aspects of conservation planning.