794 resultados para Estimations


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Analysis of gamma-H2AX foci in blood lymphocytes is a promising approach for rapid dose estimation to support patient triage after a radiation accident but has one major drawback: the rapid decline of foci levels post-exposure cause major uncertainties in situations where the exact timing between exposure and blood sampling is unknown. To address this issue, radiation-induced apoptosis (RIA) in lymphocytes was investigated using fluorogenic inhibitors of caspases (FLICA) as an independent biomarker for radiation exposure, which may complement the gamma-H2AX assay. Ex vivo X-irradiated peripheral blood lymphocytes from 17 volunteers showed dose-and time-dependent increases in radiation-induced apoptosis over the first 3 days after exposure, albeit with considerable interindividual variation. Comparison with gamma-H2AX and 53BP1 foci counts suggested an inverse correlation between numbers of residual foci and radiation-induced apoptosis in lymphocytes at 24 h postirradiation (P = 0.007). In T-helper (CD4), T-cytotoxic (CD8) and B-cells (CD19), some significant differences in radiation induced DSBs or apoptosis were observed, however no correlation between foci and apoptosis in lymphocyte subsets was observed at 24 h postirradiation. While gamma-H2AX and 53BP1 foci were rapidly induced and then repaired after exposure, radiation-induced apoptosis did not become apparent until 24 h after exposure. Data from six volunteers with different ex vivo doses and post-exposure times were used to test the capability of the combined assay. Results show that simultaneous analysis of gamma-H2AX and radiation-induced apoptosis may provide a rapid and more accurate triage tool in situations where the delay between exposure and blood sampling is unknown compared to gamma-H2AX alone. This combined approach may improve the accuracy of dose estimations in cases where blood sampling is performed days after the radiation exposure. 

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A technique for optimizing the efficiency of the sub-map method for large-scale simultaneous localization and mapping (SLAM) is proposed. It optimizes the benefits of the sub-map technique to improve the accuracy and consistency of an extended Kalman filter (EKF)-based SLAM. Error models were developed and engaged to investigate some of the outstanding issues in employing the sub-map technique in SLAM. Such issues include the size (distance) of an optimal sub-map, the acceptable error effect caused by the process noise covariance on the predictions and estimations made within a sub-map, when to terminate an existing sub-map and start a new one and the magnitude of the process noise covariance that could produce such an effect. Numerical results obtained from the study and an error-correcting process were engaged to optimize the accuracy and convergence of the Invariant Information Local Sub-map Filter previously proposed. Applying this technique to the EKF-based SLAM algorithm (a) reduces the computational burden of maintaining the global map estimates and (b) simplifies transformation complexities and data association ambiguities usually experienced in fusing sub-maps together. A Monte Carlo analysis of the system is presented as a means of demonstrating the consistency and efficacy of the proposed technique.

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Prevalence estimations for Autism Spectrum Disorder have been increasing over the past few years with rates now reported to be at 1:68. Interventions that are based on Applied Behaviour Analysis are significantly related to best outcomes and are widely considered ‘treatment as usual’ in North America. In Europe, this is not the case, instead a rather ill-defined ‘eclectic’ approach is widely promoted and in this paper we discuss some of the roots of this gulf between Europe and North America and correct some of the misconceptions that prevail about Applied Behaviour Analysis in Europe.

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Objective: Molecular pathology relies on identifying anomalies using PCR or analysis of DNA/RNA. This is important in solid tumours where molecular stratification of patients define targeted treatment. These molecular biomarkers rely on examination of tumour, annotation for possible macro dissection/tumour cell enrichment and the estimation of % tumour. Manually marking up tumour is error prone. Method: We have developed a method for automated tumour mark-up and % cell calculations using image analysis called TissueMark® based on texture analysis for lung, colorectal and breast (cases=245, 100, 100 respectively). Pathologists marked slides for tumour and reviewed the automated analysis. A subset of slides was manually counted for tumour cells to provide a benchmark for automated image analysis. Results: There was a strong concordance between pathological and automated mark-up (100 % acceptance rate for macro-dissection). We also showed a strong concordance between manually/automatic drawn boundaries (median exclusion/inclusion error of 91.70 %/89 %). EGFR mutation analysis was precisely the same for manual and automated annotation-based macrodissection. The annotation accuracy rates in breast and colorectal cancer were 83 and 80 % respectively. Finally, region-based estimations of tumour percentage using image analysis showed significant correlation with actual cell counts. Conclusion: Image analysis can be used for macro-dissection to (i) annotate tissue for tumour and (ii) estimate the % tumour cells and represents an approach to standardising/improving molecular diagnostics.

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Milling of plant and soil material in plastic tubes, such as microcentrifuge tubes, over-estimates carbon (C) and under-estimates nitrogen (N) concentrations due to the introduction of polypropylene into milled samples, as identified using Fourier-transform infra-red spectroscopy.

This study compares C and N concentrations of roots and soil milled in microcentrifuge tubes versus stainless steel containers, demonstrating that a longer milling time, greater milling intensity, smaller sample size and inclusion of abrasive sample material all increase polypropylene contamination from plastic tubes leading to overestimation of C concentrations by up to 8 % (0.08 g g(-1)).

Erroneous estimations of C and N, and other analytes, must be assumed after milling in plastic tubes and milling methods should be adapted to minimise such error.

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Sunspots on the surface of the Sun are the observational signatures of intense manifestations of tightly packed magnetic field lines, with near-vertical field strengths exceeding 6,000 G in extreme cases1. It is well accepted that both the plasma density and the magnitude of the magnetic field strength decrease rapidly away from the solar surface, making high-cadence coronal measurements through traditional Zeeman and Hanle effects difficult as the observational signatures are fraught with low-amplitude signals that can become swamped with instrumental noise2, 3. Magneto-hydrodynamic (MHD) techniques have previously been applied to coronal structures, with single and spatially isolated magnetic field strengths estimated as 9–55 G (refs 4,5,6,7). A drawback with previous MHD approaches is that they rely on particular wave modes alongside the detectability of harmonic overtones. Here we show, for the first time, how omnipresent magneto-acoustic waves, originating from within the underlying sunspot and propagating radially outwards, allow the spatial variation of the local coronal magnetic field to be mapped with high precision. We find coronal magnetic field strengths of 32 ± 5 G above the sunspot, which decrease rapidly to values of approximately 1 G over a lateral distance of 7,000 km, consistent with previous isolated and unresolved estimations. Our results demonstrate a new, powerful technique that harnesses the omnipresent nature of sunspot oscillations to provide magnetic field mapping capabilities close to a magnetic source in the solar corona.

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Time-domain modelling of single-reed woodwind instruments usually involves a lumped model of the excitation mechanism. The parameters of this lumped model have to be estimated for use in numerical simulations. Several attempts have been made to estimate these parameters, including observations of the mechanics of isolated reeds, measurements under artificial or real playing conditions and estimations based on numerical simulations. In this study an optimisation routine is presented, that can estimate reed-model parameters, given the pressure and flow signals in the mouthpiece. The method is validated, tested on a series of numerically synthesised data. In order to incorporate the actions of the player in the parameter estimation process, the optimisation routine has to be applied to signals obtained under real playing conditions. The estimated parameters can then be used to resynthesise the pressure and flow signals in the mouthpiece. In the case of measured data, as opposed to numerically synthesised data, special care needs to be taken while modelling the bore of the instrument. In fact, a careful study of various experimental datasets revealed that for resynthesis to work, the bore termination impedance should be known very precisely from theory. An example is given, where the above requirement is satisfied, and the resynthesised signals closely match the original signals generated by the player.

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Due to its complex and dynamic fine-scale structure, the chromosphere is a particularly challenging region of the Sun's atmosphere to understand. It is now widely accepted that to model chromospheric dynamics, even on a magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) scale, while also calculating spectral line emission, one must realistically include the effects of partial ionization and radiative transfer in a multi-fluid plasma under non-LTE conditions. Accurate quantification of MHD wave energetics must befounded on a precise identification of the actual wave mode being observed. This chapter focuses on MHD kink-mode identification, MHD sausage mode identification, and MHD torsional Alfvén wave identification. It then reviews progress in determining more accurate energy flux estimations of specific MHD wave modes observed in the chromosphere. The chapter finally examines how the discovery of these MHD wave modes has helped us advance the field of chromosphericmagnetoseismology.

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For reasons of unequal distribution of more than one nematode species in wood, and limited availability of wood samples required for the PCR-based method for detecting pinewood nematodes in wood tissue of Pinus massoniana, a rapid staining-assisted wood sampling method aiding PCR-based detection of the pine wood nematode Bursaphelenchus xylophilus (Bx) in small wood samples of P. massoniana was developed in this study. This comprised a series of new techniques: sampling, mass estimations of nematodes using staining techniques, and lowest limit Bx nematode mass determination for PCR detection. The procedure was undertaken on three adjoining 5-mg wood cross-sections, of 0.5 · 0.5 · 0.015 cm dimension, that were cut from a wood sample of 0.5 · 0.5 · 0.5 cm initially, then the larger wood sample was stained by acid fuchsin, from which two 5-mg wood cross-sections (that adjoined the three 5-mg wood cross-sections, mentioned above) were cut. Nematode-staining-spots (NSSs) in each of the two stained sections were counted under a microscope at 100· magnification. If there were eight or more NSSs present, the adjoining three sections were used for PCR assays. The B. xylophilus – specific amplicon of 403 bp (DQ855275) was generated by PCR assay from 100.00% of 5-mg wood cross-sections that contained more than eight Bx NSSs by the PCR assay. The entire sampling procedure took only 10 min indicating that it is suitable for the fast estimation of nematode numbers in the wood of P. massonina as the prelimary sample selections for other more expensive Bx-detection methods such as PCR assay.

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Nesta tese, consideram-se operadores integrais singulares com a acção extra de um operador de deslocacamento de Carleman e com coeficientes em diferentes classes de funções essencialmente limitadas. Nomeadamente, funções contínuas por troços, funções quase-periódicas e funções possuíndo factorização generalizada. Nos casos dos operadores integrais singulares com deslocamento dado pelo operador de reflexão ou pelo operador de salto no círculo unitário complexo, obtêm-se critérios para a propriedade de Fredholm. Para os coeficientes contínuos, uma fórmula do índice de Fredholm é apresentada. Estes resultados são consequência das relações de equivalência explícitas entre aqueles operadores e alguns operadores adicionais, tais como o operador integral singular, operadores de Toeplitz e operadores de Toeplitz mais Hankel. Além disso, as relações de equivalência permitem-nos obter um critério de invertibilidade e fórmulas para os inversos laterais dos operadores iniciais com coeficientes factorizáveis. Adicionalmente, aplicamos técnicas de análise numérica, tais como métodos de colocação de polinómios, para o estudo da dimensão do núcleo dos dois tipos de operadores integrais singulares com coeficientes contínuos por troços. Esta abordagem permite também a computação do inverso no sentido Moore-Penrose dos operadores principais. Para operadores integrais singulares com operadores de deslocamento do tipo Carleman preservando a orientação e com funções contínuas como coeficientes, são obtidos limites superiores da dimensão do núcleo. Tal é implementado utilizando algumas estimativas e com a ajuda de relações (explícitas) de equivalência entre operadores. Focamos ainda a nossa atenção na resolução e nas soluções de uma classe de equações integrais singulares com deslocamento que não pode ser reduzida a um problema de valor de fronteira binomial. De forma a atingir os objectivos propostos, foram utilizadas projecções complementares e identidades entre operadores. Desta forma, as equações em estudo são associadas a sistemas de equações integrais singulares. Estes sistemas são depois analisados utilizando um problema de valor de fronteira de Riemann. Este procedimento tem como consequência a construção das soluções das equações iniciais a partir das soluções de problemas de valor de fronteira de Riemann. Motivados por uma grande diversidade de aplicações, estendemos a definição de operador integral de Cauchy para espaços de Lebesgue sobre grupos topológicos. Assim, são investigadas as condições de invertibilidade dos operadores integrais neste contexto.

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This thesis consists of an introductory chapter (essay I) and five more empirical essays on electricity markets and CO2 spot price behaviour, derivatives pricing analysis and hedging. Essay I presents the structure of the thesis and electricity markets functioning and characteristics, as well as the type of products traded, to be analyzed on the following essays. In the second essay we conduct an empirical study on co-movements in electricity markets resorting to wavelet analysis, discussing long-term dynamics and markets integration. Essay three is about hedging performance and multiscale relationships in the German electricity spot and futures markets, also using wavelet analysis. We concentrate the investigation on the relationship between coherence evolution and hedge ratio analysis, on a time-frequency-scale approach, between spot and futures which conditions the effectiveness of the hedging strategy. Essays four, five and six are interrelated between them and with the other two previous essays given the nature of the commodity analyzed, CO2 emission allowances, traded in electricity markets. Relationships between electricity prices, primary energy fuel prices and carbon dioxide permits are analyzed on essay four. The efficiency of the European market for allowances is examined taking into account markets heterogeneity. Essay five analyzes stylized statistical properties of the recent traded asset CO2 emission allowances, for spot and futures returns, examining also the relation linking convenience yield and risk premium, for the German European Energy Exchange (EEX) between October 2005 and October 2009. The study was conducted through empirical estimations of CO2 allowances risk premium, convenience yield, and their relation. Future prices from an ex-post perspective are examined to show evidence for significant negative risk premium, or else a positive forward premium. Finally, essay six analyzes emission allowances futures hedging effectiveness, providing evidence for utility gains increases with investor’s preference over risk. Deregulation of electricity markets has led to higher uncertainty in electricity prices and by presenting these essays we try to shed new lights about structuring, pricing and hedging in this type of markets.

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Forest fires implications in overland flow and soil erosion have been researched for several years. Therefore, is widely known that fires enhance hydrological and geomorphological activity worldwide as also in Mediterranean areas. Soil burn severity has been widely used to describe the impacts of fire on soils, and has being recognized as a decisive factor controlling post-fire erosion rates. However, there is no unique definition of the term and the relationship between soil burn severity and post-fire hydrological and erosion response has not yet been fully established. Few studies have assessed post-fire erosion over multiple years, and the authors are aware of none which assess runoff. Small amount of studies concerning pre-fire management practices were also found. In the case of soil erosion models, the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) and the revised Morgan–Morgan–Finney (MMF) are well-known models, but not much information is available as regards their suitability in predicting post-fire soil erosion in forest soils. The lack of information is even more pronounced as regards post-fire rehabilitation treatments. The aim of the thesis was to perform an extensive research under the post fire hydrologic and erosive response subject. By understanding the effect of burn severity in ecosystems and its implications regarding post fire hydrological and erosive responses worldwide. Test the effect of different pre-fire land management practices (unplowed, downslope plowed and contour plowed) and time-since-fire, in the post fire hydrological and erosive response, between the two most common land uses in Portugal (pine and eucalypt). Assess the performance of two widely-known erosion models (RUSLE and Revised MMF), to predict soil erosion rates during first year following two wildfires of distinctive burn severity. Furthermore, to apply these two models considering different post-fire rehabilitation treatments in an area severely affected by fire. Improve model estimations of post-fire runoff and erosion rates in two different land uses (pine and eucalypt) using the revised MMF. To assess these improvements by comparing estimations and measurements of runoff and erosion, in two recently burned sites, as also with their post fire rehabilitation treatments. Model modifications involved: (1) focusing on intra-annual changes in parameters to incorporate seasonal differences in runoff and erosion; and (2) inclusion of soil water repellency in runoff predictions. Additionally, validate these improvements with the application of the model to other pine and eucalypt sites in Central Portugal. The review and meta-analysis showed that fire occurrence had a significant effect on the hydrological and erosive response. However, this effect was only significantly higher with increasing soil burn severity for inter-rill erosion, and not for runoff. This study furthermore highlighted the incoherencies between existing burn severity classifications, and proposed an unambiguous classification. In the case of the erosion plots with natural rainfall, land use factor affected annual runoff while land management affected both annual runoff and erosion amounts significantly. Time-since-fire had an important effect in erosion amounts among unplowed sites, while for eucalypt sites time affected both annual runoff and erosion amounts. At all studied sites runoff coefficients increase over the four years of monitoring. In the other hand, sediment concentration in the runoff, recorded a decrease during the same period. Reasons for divergence from the classic post-fire recovery model were also explored. Short fire recurrence intervals and forest management practices are viewed as the main reasons for the observed severe and continuing soil degradation. The revised MMF model presented reasonable accuracy in the predictions while the RUSLE clearly overestimated the observed erosion rates. After improvements: the revised model was able to predict first-year post-fire plot-scale runoff and erosion rates for both forest types, these predictions were improved both by the seasonal changes in the model parameters; and by considering the effect of soil water repellency on the runoff, individual seasonal predictions were considered accurate, and the inclusion of the soil water repellency in the model also improved the model at this base. The revised MMF model proved capable of providing a simple set of criteria for management decisions about runoff and erosion mitigation measures in burned areas. The erosion predictions at the validation sites attested both to the robustness of the model and of the calibration parameters, suggesting a potential wider application.

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O presente projeto de investigação em Engenharia Civil é construído em torno das necessidades atuais expressas pelos setores da construção e obras públicas em fundações. Em colaboração com a empresa GEO este trabalho pretende dar resposta em tempo útil aos empreiteiros, pondo o conhecimento científico ao serviço da indústria, colmatando a escassez de investigação académica que se verifica neste domínio. Esta investigação, à qual se associou a empresa BRASFOND, recorre ao estudo de ensaios de carga estática à compressão realizados no Brasil, segundo a NBR 12131 (2005) e NBR 12131 (2006). Assim, para estudar o desempenho de polímeros aplicados na estabilização de solos em fundações, foram analisados 6 ensaios de carga realizados em obras de intervenção da empresa GEO, disponibilizados pela empresa BRASFOND. Os ensaios de carga verticais estáticos de compressão axial foram realizados em estacas de 3 obras, nomeadamente a construção de uma central termoelétrica, em 2009, e de dois edifícios, em 2010. O projeto de fundações da central termoelétrica assentou na execução de estacas com polímeros, com 1270 estacas moldadas “in loco” com 1 000 mm de diâmetro e profundidade variável de 10 m a 18 m, em solos moles e pouco compactos de 8 m a 9 m de espessura, encastradas até 3 m sobre um maciço Gnaisse medianamente alterado (W3). Dos ensaios de carga realizados nesta obra, foram alvo deste estudo a análise dos primeiros 4 disponibilizados pela empresa. Os valores estimados por métodos semi-empíricos da capacidade resistente das estacas, considerando a recuperação da rocha nos trechos encastrados, foram comparados com a carga resistente última à compressão obtida através do ensaio de carga. O projeto de fundações de dois edifícios de elevado número de andares (cerca de 30) no litoral do Estado de São Paulo, em Santos, assentou na execução de fundações indiretas em solos moles a muito moles, com estacas de grandes dimensões moldadas com recurso a polímeros. Para atestar a qualidade das estacas, de forma a avaliar o comportamento carga versus assentamento e estimar as características da capacidade de carga, procedeu-se à execução de dois ensaios de carga estática à compressão, um dos quais instrumentado em profundidade. Os valores estimados por métodos semi-empíricos da capacidade resistente das estacas foram comparados com a carga resistente última à compressão obtida através do ensaio de carga. Para além deste estudo se revestir de interesse académico e empresarial, o contexto inerente à aplicação de polímeros em fundações é relevante para a prática pedagógica. Assim, este projeto envolve também uma componente educacional, esta última implementada numa escola do ensino básico e secundário da região centro do país.

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The Portuguese National Statistical Institute intends to produce estimations for the mean price of the habitation transation.

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Tese de dout., Ciências do Mar, da Terra e do Ambiente (Ciências do Mar-Oceanografia Física), Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia, Univ. do Algarve, 2011