Os efeitos do financiamento do BNDES sobre o lucro e o crescimento das empresas

A presente dissertação tem por objetivo articular os conceitos de estratégia e políticas públicas, orientadas para o papel do BNDES no contexto brasileiro. A expressividade da atuação do BNDES, a origem de seus recursos e a relevância de seus desembolsos ratificam a importância dos financiamentos da instituição para a economia doméstica.

Essays on the credit channel of monetary policy: a case study for Brazil

The onset of the financial crisis in 2008 and the European sovereign crisis in 2010 renewed the interest of macroeconomists on the role played by credit in business cycle fluctuations. The purpose of the present work is to present empirical evidence on the monetary policy transmission mechanism in Brazil with a special eye on the role played by the credit channel, using different econometric techniques. It is comprised by three articles. The first one presents a review of the literature of financial frictions, with a focus on the overlaps between credit activity and the monetary policy. It highlights how the sharp disruptions in the financial markets spurred central banks in developed and emerging nations to deploy of a broad set of non conventional tools to overcome the damage on financial intermediation. A chapter is dedicated to the challenge face by the policymaking in emerging markets and Brazil in particular in the highly integrated global capital market. This second article investigates the implications of the credit channel of the monetary policy transmission mechanism in the case of Brazil, using a structural FAVAR (SFAVAR) approach. The term “structural” comes from the estimation strategy, which generates factors that have a clear economic interpretation. The results show that unexpected shocks in the proxies for the external finance premium and the credit volume produce large and persistent fluctuations in inflation and economic activity – accounting for more than 30% of the error forecast variance of the latter in a three-year horizon. Counterfactual simulations demonstrate that the credit channel amplified the economic contraction in Brazil during the acute phase of the global financial crisis in the last quarter of 2008, thus gave an important impulse to the recovery period that followed. In the third articles, I make use of Bayesian estimation of a classical neo-Keynesian DSGE model, incorporating the financial accelerator channel developed by Bernanke, Gertler and Gilchrist (1999). The results present evidences in line to those already seen in the previous article: disturbances on the external finance premium – represented here by credit spreads – trigger significant responses on the aggregate demand and inflation and monetary policy shocks are amplified by the financial accelerator mechanism. Keywords: Macroeconomics, Monetary Policy, Credit Channel, Financial Accelerator, FAVAR, DSGE, Bayesian Econometrics

Financiamento público à indústria de exibição cinematográfica: um estudo de caso no Brasil

O objetivo deste trabalho é avaliar o impacto da criação de linhas de financiamento ao parque exibidor cinematográfico brasileiro, uma das formas existentes de incentivo governamental ao setor. Os desembolsos avaliados, realizados pelo BNDES com recursos do Procult e do FSA de 2007 a 2012, consistem em crédito de longo prazo para a criação de salas de cinema, com juros abaixo do mercado e estrutura de garantias flexível. A metodologia econométrica utilizada é o controle sintético, tal como formalizada por Abadie et al. (2010). Sob esse método, não foi possível identificar contribuição positiva da política de crédito quando se confronta o desempenho individual dos exibidores beneficiados versus seus respectivos controles sintéticos, medido pela evolução das variáveis número de salas e público. Ademais, testou-se um possível efeito agregado, considerando a evolução do número de ingressos per capita no Brasil, também não sendo possível identificar contribuição positiva da política sobre tal indicador.

SSM samba: a survey of brazilian approaches to soft systems methodology (1999-2005)

This paper reports the results of a survey intended to discover the manner in which Soft Systems Methodology (SSM) is understood and used in Brazil. The focus is upon SSM papers published in national and international journals, and conferences, incorporating a refereeing procedure. To be included in the survey, publications had to meet at least one of the following criteria: (a) authorship is clearly of Brazilian nationality; or, (b) authorship is affiliated to a Brazilian institution; or (c) application is set in Brazil. Similar surveys reporting on the United Kingdom, Australia and, to a lesser extent, Spain have been published previously in the literature. This paper, therefore, contributes to the growing international understanding and usage of SSM. Ultimately the paper serves as an initial map of the developing context in Brazilian SSM theory and practice.

Avaliação de impacto do Programa de Modernização Tributária e da Gestão dos Setores Sociais Básicos (PMAT) na arrecadação de ISSQN e IPTU dos municípios, no período de 1999 a 2011

O objetivo deste trabalho é avaliar o impacto do Programa de Modernização da Administração Tributária e da Gestão dos Setores Sociais Básicos (PMAT), gerido pelo Banco Nacional de Desenvolvimento Econômico e Social (BNDES), na arrecadação tributária dos Municípios, no período de 1999 a 2011. Para tanto, utilizamos um modelo econométrico de dados em painel com estimador de efeitos fixos. As variáveis dependentes são os logs da arrecadação de ISSQN e IPTU, as variáveis explicativas são os desembolsos do BNDES e o PIB municipal desagregado. Realizamos regressões com dummies de tratamento e com o log dos desembolsos. Além realizar regressões com toda a amostra disponível, delimitamos a amostra do grupo de controle em dois subgrupos para tentar eliminar efeitos de tendências entre entidades. A primeira delimitação foi utilizar a amostra que realizou consultas ao banco de fomento e não obteve sucesso. A segunda delimitação foi a de municípios que possuem proximidade geográfica daqueles comtemplados pelo financiamento. Os resultados encontrados demonstram não haver significância estatística entre desembolsos realizados pelo BNDES e a trajetória da arrecadação dos tributos em análise na maior parte dos modelos utilizados. Apenas nas regressões com dados da amostra que realizou consulta ao BNDES, obteve-se significância estatística, ao nível de 5% para o tributo IPTU, no efeito acumulado ao longo do tempo.

Agricultura de baixa emissão de carbono: uma investigação sobre financiamento e potenciais benefícios

O objetivo geral do presente trabalho é comprovar a hipótese de que é possível proporcionar proteção de renda ao produtor rural e adição de carbono no solo a partir da análise de dados secundários. Além disso, pretende-se investigar a possibilidade de facilitar a concessão de crédito em projetos que aplicam técnicas do Plano ABC sob a ótica de quem atua diretamente no atendimento aos produtores rurais no Banco do Brasil; analisar se está havendo um acompanhamento satisfatório do resultado positivo do crédito rural aplicado através do Programa ABC; e investigar formas de converter as emissões de GEE evitadas e o carbono armazenado no solo em valor agregado para o produtor tomador do crédito do Programa ABC. Para atingir o objetivo geral, foram analisados dados secundários obtidos de SENAR; EMBRAPA; IMEA (2014) e dados fornecidos de um experimento conduzido por pesquisadores da unidade da EMBRAPA. A análise dos resultados de SENAR; EMBRAPA; IMEA (2014) mostrou que apesar de ter ocorrido o efeito da proteção da renda no período de uma safra, 2009/2010, não se pode confirmar a hipótese de que as tecnologias ABC aplicadas na unidade produtiva são capazes de proporcionar proteção de renda ao produtor rural ao longo de vários ciclos produtivos. A partir dos resultados fornecidos pela EMBRAPA, não se pode confirmar a hipótese de que as tecnologias ABC aplicadas nas propriedades estudas são capazes de proporcionar adição de carbono ao solo. No entanto, diversos estudos indicam que há ganhos de estoques de carbono em solos bem manejados. O crédito do Programa ABC merece tratamento diferenciado junto as instituições financeiras, necessita também de acompanhamento, após a liberação do crédito, que vai além da simples fiscalização que verifica o andamento dos empreendimentos, mas mensurar se está havendo redução das emissões e captura de carbono nas áreas financiadas. E por último, o setor financeiro e os demais agentes das cadeias produtivas devem proporcionar valor agregado aos produtores que aplicam as boas práticas agronômicas do Plano ABC.

Plano de Desenvolvimento da Escola (PDE): o processo de implantação de uma nova proposta de descentralização em duas escolas da rede municipal de ensino de Natal de 1999 a 2002

The 1988 Constitution was the legal marc to define changes in Brazilian State with major importance to the layout of public politician. In that moment of redefinitions e openness to new ways the redemocratization, participation and decentralization of public school had as their starter the elementary school. This work focus on the manage of FUNDESCOLA, particularly one of its politics called PDE (Educational Development Plan) wich purpose is guarantee a better quality in teaching and spread out democracy throughout its methodology. It was chosen two public schools: Professor Ulisses de Góis and Antonio Campos. The theoretical and methodological orientation is based on the theory of participative democracy developed by authors such as Putnam and Pateman. They says that a cultural background precedes individual participation in society. The collected data (educational legislation, surveys with all sectors of schools and technicians of Natal educational secretary, and relevant documents of de institutions) showed that PDE. Implementation had opposite runnings in the schools studied. In one, as a consequence of bad preparations of its teachers to absorve its methodology, PDE failed. In another way, PDE achieved its goals, especially helping the structure of action plans of the school and the administrative organization making possible several pedagogic activities planned. The work concludes that the main factor the failure or success of PDE relies on the organizational (both political and pedagogical) structure of each school. This discovery implies three important guidelines when comes to formulation of public politicians: a) Constitution of school; b) the local actors who manages the actions; c) the colletive interest in taking part of decisions

Relações internacionais: o comércio exterior do Brasil e Rio Grande do Norte no período de 1999 a 2008

The period post-war promoted several changes in relations economic, political and social world. Since then, a new division international of labor has delineated, with the great growth of Asian countries. In the field of international relations, the world still appears to transition is not completed because the old institutions were not replaced by new ones and the power of the United States as a major capitalist country remains unshaken, even with the emergence and strengthening of new economic global blocs. With globalization, Brazil emerges with more intensity in the face of new issues global, although its share in transactions trade global hasn‟t changed accordingly. In this sense, the objective of this dissertation is to examine, in a descriptive and critical the development of international relations and trade of Brazil and Rio Grande do Norte with the main blocs in the world from 1999 to 2008. As a secondary objective: to identify the assumptions theoretical that underpinned the decisions governments of the FHC and Lula, in particular, the interference of these terms in international relations and foreign trade. Adopted as the procedure methodological the literature review of the subject, as well as collection and processing of the data of foreign trade. During the Cardoso government has undergone the substantial growth in imports, as part of the economic policy of anti-inflationary, generating large deficits trade. From the first to the second term, with the inflection of exchange rate policy the country has resumed surpluses trade. The choice of government of the autonomy participation increased the relative share of the traditional blocks in total foreign trade and reduced the share of MERCOSUL. In the Lula government, there is the maintenance of some elements of the economic policy of the previous government and the partial shift in the conduct of foreign policy, with the option of autonomy through diversification, raising its stake on the blocks and other emerging countries in total foreign trade Brazilian and reducing the contribution of the traditional blocks such as NAFTA and the European Union. A trend observed in the previous government and deepened in the Lula government was the growth in commodity exports and the decline of manufactured products, confirming the model of conservative insertion of Brazilian exports. The Rio Grande do Norte followed the trend Brazilian in the growth of foreign trade, including in participating conservative, given that the products exported by the state are basically coming from horticulture irrigated and agribusiness. However, in the aspect of destination export, the state followed trajectory distinct from that in the Lula government, with the deepening of trade relations with traditional blocks, especially with the European Union and NAFTA

Uma abordagem institucional da carcinicultura do Rio Grande do Norte de 1999 a 2009

This study analyzes the institucional environment and its changes around the carcinicultora activity in Rio Grande do Norte from the understanding of its trajectory and the macroinstitucional elements micron and that characterizes the activity in the period of 1999 the 2009. In the analysis of the occured institucional changes in the carcinicultura the Guaraíra Estuary is overcome as space reference, located in the eastern coast of the Rio Grande of the North. The analysis proposal has for base the adoption of the conceptual support of the innovative institucionalistas and neoshumpterianas theories, for understanding that these bring complementary and enriching elements that will allow an analysis, not static, but, dynamics of the carcinicultora activity. It was verified that the crisis brought up for the antidumping action, for the problems of the illnesses that had abated the shrimp, for the depreciation of the Real, among others it led to an overturn in the productive conjuncture of market and forced the alteration of the effective institutions. This institucional alteration, goes in the direction to search to take care of the new demands of the carcinicultura that was possible for the solidity of the institucional foundations constructed throughout the thirty previous years and the consequent consolidation of the composed institucional apparatus for rich a mix of organizations, not only for agencies of government, as well as for organizations with social representation

Entre o mercado e a construção social: uma análise da experiência da implantação doPRONAF-infraestrutura e PRONAT nos territórios do Mato Grande-RN e sertão do Apodi-RN (1997 - 2010)

Analyzes the development experience in the Territories of Mato Grande and Sertão do Apodi in the state of Rio Grande do Norte, evaluating the actions of the National Program for Strengthening Family Agriculture, specifically the line of infrastructure (PRONAF-INFRA), and the National Program for Sustainable Development of Rural Territories (PRONAT) in these territories. Summarizes the various rural development approaches and takes the theoretical assumptions of territorial development, the concept of constructed territory and market-plan territory, further the cycle model to analyze public policies selected these experiences. Thus, we propose to test the hypothesis that most of the actions implemented would lead to the formation of market-plan territories, in other words, perceived only as a platform for the presentation of projects. The literature and documents, combined with case studies, interviews and direct observation of the meetings of committees, showed that, despite two boards are under the same laws, rules and formal regulations, have clear differences when considering the theory and concepts that were used as reference. The Apodi s territory is closer to a constructed space thus the search for a broader agenda, more autonomous and more appropriate to the reality experienced by local actors. On other hand the Territory of Mato Grande had the characteristics of a market-plan territory more present. As the result, the territory of Sertão do Apodi accesses not only as part of a greater number of policies and funding sources, ensuring a greater and more diverse investment volume than the territory of Mato Grande. Despite these differences, studies have shown that territorial boards surveyed are still far from becoming the main forum for managing the development from conception planning socially constructed. Showed, finally, that territorial development strategy is relevant, but requires a long walk and a deep and continuous learning process to be successfully implemented in rural areas of Northeast Brazil

Custo social de oportunidade na trajetória de acesso ao ensino superior: o caso dos ingressantes na UFRN nos vestibulares de 2006 a 2010

Access is a problem of higher education in Brazil that has existed since the formalization of this has occurred since the installation of the Portuguese court in Brazil in 1808. Only 10% of young people between 18 and 24 years of age attending this level of education in 2000, arriving in 2010 just 15%, far from that determined the National Education Plan in 2001, triple that percentage by the year 2010. In addition, a majority of seats of public HEIs is populated by students from the private network, especially in high-demand courses. In this context, this study aims to identify the costs related to the trajectories of students who were successful in the vestibular UFRN editions from 2006 to 2010. Presents an overview of higher education in Brazil, a brief history of vestibular, as well as new forms of access, and some of the policies to expand such access, highlighting the argument Inclusion UFRN. Focusing on the theme of the paper presents the concepts of opportunity costs and social. After collecting data through a questionnaire and consultation of databases COMPERVE was developed to search for a descriptive and analytical, with the participation of 3,995 students, of whom 1642 (41.1%) had completed secondary education in schools public, and 2,078 (52%) in private schools. The profile indicates that 90% are single, about 50% are 21 years of age, are white and female. In the course of preparation for college entrance exams, 80% chose the course during or after completion of the last year of high school, and almost 70% said they had started preparing at that time. Findings related to the costs involved with this preparation indicate that, in most cases there were school fees and disbursements and workshops, and the purchase of books and other materials, with parents primarily responsible for this cost, the amount disbursed each month was up $ 300 for 64% of respondents and only 7% of them exceeded $ 1,000, the major non-financial costs were characterized by the following resignations: job opportunities (24%) or temporary work (20%) courses of languages (26%), leisure activities (48%), leisure travel (43%), and parties and / or shows (54%). Of social investments by the government, stand out in the tax waiver scholarships for study in private institutions, grant exemption from the registration fee of vestibular, the preparatory courses UFRN, and seminars by COMPERVE / UFRN with networks of high school. From the junction of the opportunity costs (private costs) and social costs (public costs), a new concept: the social opportunity cost, which measures the combined efforts of families and government to finance the opportunity to access higher education of an individual. This concept can and should be incorporated as a strategic vector for the sake of democratic university, which reflects the social model that is sought

O Fundef e o Fundeb como política de financiamento para a valorização do magistério: efeitos na carreira e na remuneração dos professores da rede pública estadual de ensino do RN

Le présent étude analyse les effets de la politique de financement de l éducation de base, par les Fonds contables, Fundef et Fundeb, et sa proposition de valorisation de l enseignement, en considerant les dimensions de la carrière et de la rémunération des professeurs de l éducation publique de l état du Rio Grande do Norte, entre les années de 1996 et 2000. Pour comprendre les contraintes de l évaluation des politiques publiques, en cherchant aussi les contribution en Marx (1996) selon qui « le concret est concret » et que la dialétique du concret peut appuyer pour la tentative de capter le fenomène étudié. On a utilisé encore le référentiel bibliographique relatif au financement de l éducation et la valorisation de l enseignement à partir de la littérature reférente aux dimensions de l objet (Fundef et Fundeb) et (carrière et rémuneration). Dans la recherche documental, au-delà des législations, directrices nationales et locales pertinentes, se sont utilisés des donnés référents aux ressources, disponibles à la Finbra, Trésor National, SIOPE/RN, INEP/MEC, des informations du résumé de la feuille et feuille de payement du Secrétariat d État, de l Éducation et de la Culture (SEEC) et 289 bulletins de salaire de 21 professeurs. On a réalisé interview semi structurée avec une quantité de 9 professeurs, reférent à la carrière, et un questionaire appliqué à 12 professeurs relatif à la remuneration. On considère que sur les résultats reférents aux indicateurs éducationnel, dans la période Fundef il y a eu une réduction des inscriptions aux écoles de l état comme aussi aux fonctions des professeurs de l Enseignement Fondamental, et cela correspond à 37%. À partir de la vigence du Fondebe (2007 - 2010) ces indicateurs ont équalisé. Pendant toute la période, 1996 et 2010 il y a eu une augmentation des inscriptions de 119,03%, et aussi aux fonctions des professeurs de 77,44%. Par rapport aux informations de financement, on a constaté que, du minimum exigé (60%) sur l aplication des fonds à la rémuneration de l enseignant, on applique pour la période des deux fonds, plus que le minimum exigé, c est-à-dire de 83,29% à 98,89% des fonds. Les effets des fonds sur la carrière des 9 professeurs n ont pas été satisfactoires, si l on considère la promotion et la progression. Au cas de la promotion des 9 de ces professeurs, un seul a évolué son niveau (les titres) mais a, au même temps, rétroagit dans sa progression. Pour la progression des 9 professeurs, 8 d entre eux ont sa progression retardée, ce qui correspond à entre 2 et 5 classes, et ce qui provoque un préjudice qui varie entre 10% à 45% sur sa remunération. La différence d une classe à l autre correspond à 5% de son salaire. On évalue que les avantages financières contribuent pour la remunération avec un pourcentage plus élevé que son salaire, ce qui diminuent pendant lo Fundeb. Par rapport à la remunération un professeur de 24 ans de service avec formation, n arrive même pas à gagner 2 salaires minimums. Le professeur de 30 ans de service, maître, reçoit un salaire, en 2010, qui correspond a moins de 3 salaires minimums, c est-à-dire, une proportion de 2,82 et une remuneration qui correspond à un peu plus que 3 salaires minimums, c est-à-dire, une proportion de 3,66. L enseignement n est pas très favorisé si on le met face à d autres profession qui ont aussi l exigence de formation supérieure, ce qui provoque un effet négatif pour voir l enseignement comme profession. À propos des effets sur la rémuneration, on conclue qu il y a eu une amélioration mais encore insufisante, surtout si l on compare au Salaire Minimum annuel. On évalue que les fonds Fundef et Fundeb n ont pas été capables de promouvoir la valorisation de l enseignement dans le contexte de carrière et rémuneration. On observe quelques résultats négatif dans la politique de fonds, une fois qu il y aurait en avoir avec l incapacité de tel politique en promouvoir la dite valorisation de l enseignement, ce qui est une des causes, le financement avec des restriction budgétaire

Análise das provas objetivas de química dos vestibulares da UFRN de 1997 a 2010: uma caracterização a partir das mudanças

Las pruebas de vestibular, en los últimos años en el Brasil, han sido objeto de diversas investigaciones, considerando que ese proceso selectivo es una de las vias para ingresar en las universidades públicas y termina por influenciar la enseñanza en las escuelas. De esa forma, algunos vestibulares han pasado por cambios, de un simple proceso selectivo clasificatorio a un proceso fundamentado en reflexiones sociológica, pedagógica y crítica, lo que ha promovido cuestionamientos respecto del aprendizaje y de su papel en la escuela. Delante de esa realidad, la Universidad Federal de Rio Grande del Norte (UFRN) ha implementado cambios en sus vestibulares procurando una aproximación a las Orientaciones Curriculares Nacionales, como los PCNEM, los PCN+ y las OCEM. Siendo así, el objetivo de este estudio fue caracterizar el avance cualitativo en las pruebas de preguntas objetivas a partir de los cambios ocurridos en el vestibular de la UFRN en el periodo de 1997 a 2010, definiéndose las siguientes cuestiones de estudio: ¿Cuáles son los tipos de preguntas que caracterizan las pruebas objetivas de Química del vestibular? ¿Cuáles cuestiones presentan las mayores dificultades para los candidatos? ¿Cuáles son los contenidos conceptuales privilegiados? ¿En qué tipo de preguntas los candidatos presentan mayores índices de éxitos? ¿Qué diferencias pueden ser establecidas entre las preguntas antes y después del periodo que establece los cambios en el vestibular de la UFRN? Las discusiones teóricas del estudio están fundamentadas en las siguientes referencias: PCNEM (BRASIL, 1999), PCN+ (BRASIL, 2001), OCEM (BRASIL, 2006), Zabala (1999), Jiménez Aleixandre et al. (2003), Pozo (1999), Álvarez de Zayas (1992), Núñez (2009), Relatorios Comperve/UFRN (1997 a 2010), e en relación a las evaluaciones: Pasquali et al. (2003), Silva y Núñez (2008), Marín y Benarrouch (2009). Para el estudio fueran construidas las siguientes categorías que permitieran el análisis de las cuestiones: contextualización de la cuestión, temas conceptuales, problema, representación semiótica, cálculo matemático, pertinencia de la cuestión e índice de acierto. Los resultados muestran un avance cualitativo de las preguntas de Química, en los cuales se observa un modelo de prueba que prioriza el uso de verdaderos problemas, de situaciones contextualizadas, de pocos cálculos, dándose prioridad al razonamiento que implica la comprensión, la aplicación y la interpretación de los conocimientos conceptuales, todo lo que puede estimular una enseñanza más adecuada en relación a las exigencias actuales de la Educación en Química

Migração e seletividade na região nordeste: um estudo a partir dos dados do censo demográfico de 2010

The aim of this study is to analyze the effect of migration on the income differential between northeastern migrants and nonmigrants and there by verify that the immigrants make up a group or not positively selected. The assumption that will be tested is that the presence of these immigrants affects income inequality in the region receptor, which may explain part of the high-stopping inequality in the Brazilian Northeast. The study is based on the literature selectivity migration introduced by Roy (1951), Borjas (1987) and Chiswick (1999). Does the estimated wage equation Mincer (1974) through the method of OLS, using information from the microdata sample of the 2010 Census, the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). The results which correspond to the comparison of socioeconomic profile, showed that immigrants are more qualified and, on average, better paid than non-migrants. With the estimation of the model, it was found that, keeping all other variables constant, the income that immigrants earn is 14.43% higher than that of non-migrants. Thus, there was existence of positive selectivity in migration directed to the Northeast