Statistical-dynamical downscaling for wind energy potentials: evaluation and applications to decadal hindcasts and climate change projections

A statistical–dynamical downscaling (SDD) approach for the regionalization of wind energy output (Eout) over Europe with special focus on Germany is proposed. SDD uses an extended circulation weather type (CWT) analysis on global daily mean sea level pressure fields with the central point being located over Germany. Seventy-seven weather classes based on the associated CWT and the intensity of the geostrophic flow are identified. Representatives of these classes are dynamically downscaled with the regional climate model COSMO-CLM. By using weather class frequencies of different data sets, the simulated representatives are recombined to probability density functions (PDFs) of near-surface wind speed and finally to Eout of a sample wind turbine for present and future climate. This is performed for reanalysis, decadal hindcasts and long-term future projections. For evaluation purposes, results of SDD are compared to wind observations and to simulated Eout of purely dynamical downscaling (DD) methods. For the present climate, SDD is able to simulate realistic PDFs of 10-m wind speed for most stations in Germany. The resulting spatial Eout patterns are similar to DD-simulated Eout. In terms of decadal hindcasts, results of SDD are similar to DD-simulated Eout over Germany, Poland, Czech Republic, and Benelux, for which high correlations between annual Eout time series of SDD and DD are detected for selected hindcasts. Lower correlation is found for other European countries. It is demonstrated that SDD can be used to downscale the full ensemble of the Earth System Model of the Max Planck Institute (MPI-ESM) decadal prediction system. Long-term climate change projections in Special Report on Emission Scenarios of ECHAM5/MPI-OM as obtained by SDD agree well to the results of other studies using DD methods, with increasing Eout over northern Europe and a negative trend over southern Europe. Despite some biases, it is concluded that SDD is an adequate tool to assess regional wind energy changes in large model ensembles.

Climate and carbon cycle changes from 1850 to 2100 in MPI-ESM simulations for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5

The new Max-Planck-Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) is used in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) in a series of climate change experiments for either idealized CO2-only forcing or forcings based on observations and the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. The paper gives an overview of the model configurations, experiments related forcings, and initialization procedures and presents results for the simulated changes in climate and carbon cycle. It is found that the climate feedback depends on the global warming and possibly the forcing history. The global warming from climatological 1850 conditions to 2080–2100 ranges from 1.5°C under the RCP2.6 scenario to 4.4°C under the RCP8.5 scenario. Over this range, the patterns of temperature and precipitation change are nearly independent of the global warming. The model shows a tendency to reduce the ocean heat uptake efficiency toward a warmer climate, and hence acceleration in warming in the later years. The precipitation sensitivity can be as high as 2.5% K−1 if the CO2 concentration is constant, or as small as 1.6% K−1, if the CO2 concentration is increasing. The oceanic uptake of anthropogenic carbon increases over time in all scenarios, being smallest in the experiment forced by RCP2.6 and largest in that for RCP8.5. The land also serves as a net carbon sink in all scenarios, predominantly in boreal regions. The strong tropical carbon sources found in the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 experiments are almost absent in the RCP4.5 experiment, which can be explained by reforestation in the RCP4.5 scenario.

Impact of cyclones on sea ice in the Fram Strait: numerical simulations and observations

The sea ice export from the Arctic is of global importance due to its fresh water which influences the oceanic stratification and, thus, the global thermohaline circulation. This study deals with the effect of cyclones on sea ice and sea ice transport in particular on the basis of observations from two field experiments FRAMZY 1999 and FRAMZY 2002 in April 1999 and March 2002 as well as on the basis of simulations with a numerical sea ice model. The simulations realised by a dynamic-thermodynamic sea ice model are forced with 6-hourly atmospheric ECMWF- analyses (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) and 6-hourly oceanic data of a MPI-OM-simulation (Max-Planck-Institute Ocean Model). Comparing the observed and simulated variability of the sea ice drift and of the position of the ice edge shows that the chosen configuration of the model is appropriate for the performed studies. The seven observed cyclones change the position of the ice edge up to 100 km and cause an extensive decrease of sea ice coverage by 2 % up to more than 10 %. The decrease is only simulated by the model if the ocean current is strongly divergent in the centre of the cyclone. The impact is remarkable of the ocean current on divergence and shear deformation of the ice drift. As shown by sensitivity studies the ocean current at a depth of 6 m – the sea ice model is forced with – is mainly responsible for the ascertained differences between simulation and observation. The simulated sea ice transport shows a strong variability on a time scale from hours to days. Local minima occur in the time series of the ice transport during periods with Fram Strait cyclones. These minima are not caused by the local effect of the cyclone’s wind field, but mainly by the large-scale pattern of surface pressure. A displacement of the areas of strongest cyclone activity in the Nordic Seas would considerably influence the ice transport.

Decadal predictability of regional scale wind speed and wind energy potentials over Central Europe

Decadal predictions on timescales from one year to one decade are gaining importance since this time frame falls within the planning horizon of politics, economy and society. The present study examines the decadal predictability of regional wind speed and wind energy potentials in three generations of the MiKlip (‘Mittelfristige Klimaprognosen’) decadal prediction system. The system is based on the global Max-Planck-Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM), and the three generations differ primarily in the ocean initialisation. Ensembles of uninitialised historical and yearly initialised hindcast experiments are used to assess the forecast skill for 10 m wind speeds and wind energy output (Eout) over Central Europe with lead times from one year to one decade. With this aim, a statistical-dynamical downscaling (SDD) approach is used for the regionalisation. Its added value is evaluated by comparison of skill scores for MPI-ESM large-scale wind speeds and SDD-simulated regional wind speeds. All three MPI-ESM ensemble generations show some forecast skill for annual mean wind speed and Eout over Central Europe on yearly and multi-yearly time scales. This forecast skill is mostly limited to the first years after initialisation. Differences between the three ensemble generations are generally small. The regionalisation preserves and sometimes increases the forecast skills of the global runs but results depend on lead time and ensemble generation. Moreover, regionalisation often improves the ensemble spread. Seasonal Eout skills are generally lower than for annual means. Skill scores are lowest during summer and persist longest in autumn. A large-scale westerly weather type with strong pressure gradients over Central Europe is identified as potential source of the skill for wind energy potentials, showing a similar forecast skill and a high correlation with Eout anomalies. These results are promising towards the establishment of a decadal prediction system for wind energy applications over Central Europe.

Can retired galaxies mimic active galaxies? Clues from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey

The classification of galaxies as star forming or active is generally done in the ([O III]/H beta, [N II]/H alpha) plane. The Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) has revealed that, in this plane, the distribution of galaxies looks like the two wings of a seagull. Galaxies in the right wing are referred to as Seyfert/LINERs, leading to the idea that non-stellar activity in galaxies is a very common phenomenon. Here, we argue that a large fraction of the systems in the right wing could actually be galaxies which stopped forming stars. The ionization in these `retired` galaxies would be produced by hot post-asymptotic giant branch stars and white dwarfs. Our argumentation is based on a stellar population analysis of the galaxies via our STARLIGHT code and on photoionization models using the Lyman continuum radiation predicted for this population. The proportion of LINER galaxies that can be explained in such a way is, however, uncertain. We further show how observational selection effects account for the shape of the right wing. Our study suggests that nuclear activity may not be as common as thought. If retired galaxies do explain a large part of the seagull`s right wing, some of the work concerning nuclear activity in galaxies, as inferred from SDSS data, will have to be revised.

Photometric redshifts and k-corrections for the Sloan Digital Sky Survey Data Release 7

We present a catalogue of galaxy photometric redshifts and k-corrections for the Sloan Digital Sky Survey Data Release 7 (SDSS-DR7), available on the World Wide Web. The photometric redshifts were estimated with an artificial neural network using five ugriz bands, concentration indices and Petrosian radii in the g and r bands. We have explored our redshift estimates with different training sets, thus concluding that the best choice for improving redshift accuracy comprises the main galaxy sample (MGS), the luminous red galaxies and the galaxies of active galactic nuclei covering the redshift range 0 < z < 0.3. For the MGS, the photometric redshift estimates agree with the spectroscopic values within rms = 0.0227. The distribution of photometric redshifts derived in the range 0 < z(phot) < 0.6 agrees well with the model predictions. k-corrections were derived by calibration of the k-correct_v4.2 code results for the MGS with the reference-frame (z = 0.1) (g - r) colours. We adopt a linear dependence of k-corrections on redshift and (g - r) colours that provide suitable distributions of luminosity and colours for galaxies up to redshift z(phot) = 0.6 comparable to the results in the literature. Thus, our k-correction estimate procedure is a powerful, low computational time algorithm capable of reproducing suitable results that can be used for testing galaxy properties at intermediate redshifts using the large SDSS data base.

Alternative diagnostic diagrams and the `forgotten` population of weak line galaxies in the SDSS

A numerous population of weak line galaxies (WLGs) is often left out of statistical studies on emission-line galaxies (ELGs) due to the absence of an adequate classification scheme, since classical diagnostic diagrams, such as [O iii]/H beta versus [N ii]/H alpha (the BPT diagram), require the measurement of at least four emission lines. This paper aims to remedy this situation by transposing the usual divisory lines between star-forming (SF) galaxies and active galactic nuclei (AGN) hosts and between Seyferts and LINERs to diagrams that are more economical in terms of line quality requirements. By doing this, we rescue from the classification limbo a substantial number of sources and modify the global census of ELGs. More specifically, (1) we use the Sloan Digital Sky Survey Data Release 7 to constitute a suitable sample of 280 000 ELGs, one-third of which are WLGs. (2) Galaxies with strong emission lines are classified using the widely applied criteria of Kewley et al., Kauffmann et al. and Stasinska et al. to distinguish SF galaxies and AGN hosts and Kewley et al. to distinguish Seyferts from LINERs. (3) We transpose these classification schemes to alternative diagrams keeping [N ii]/H alpha as a horizontal axis, but replacing H beta by a stronger line (H alpha or [O ii]), or substituting the ionization-level sensitive [O iii]/H beta ratio with the equivalent width of H alpha (W(H alpha)). Optimized equations for the transposed divisory lines are provided. (4) We show that nothing significant is lost in the translation, but that the new diagrams allow one to classify up to 50 per cent more ELGs. (5) Introducing WLGs in the census of galaxies in the local Universe increases the proportion of metal-rich SF galaxies and especially LINERs. In the course of this analysis, we were led to make the following points. (i) The Kewley et al. BPT line for galaxy classification is generally ill-used. (ii) Replacing [O iii]/H beta by W(H alpha) in the classification introduces a change in the philosophy of the distinction between LINERs and Seyferts, but not in its results. Because the W(H alpha) versus [N ii]/H alpha diagram can be applied to the largest sample of ELGs without loss of discriminating power between Seyferts and LINERs, we recommend its use in further studies. (iii) The dichotomy between Seyferts and LINERs is washed out by WLGs in the BPT plane, but it subsists in other diagnostic diagrams. This suggests that the right wing in the BPT diagram is indeed populated by at least two classes, tentatively identified with bona fide AGN and `retired` galaxies that have stopped forming stars and are ionized by their old stellar populations.

ON THE NATURE OF THE PROTOTYPE LUMINOUS BLUE VARIABLE AG CARINAE. II. WITNESSING A MASSIVE STAR EVOLVING CLOSE TO THE EDDINGTON AND BISTABILITY LIMITS

We show that the significantly different effective temperatures (T(eff)) achieved by the luminous blue variable AG Carinae during the consecutive visual minima of 1985-1990 (T(eff) similar or equal to 22,800 K) and 2000-2001 (T(eff) similar or equal to 17,000 K) place the star on different sides of the bistability limit, which occurs in line-driven stellar winds around T(eff) similar to 21,000 K. Decisive evidence is provided by huge changes in the optical depth of the Lyman continuum in the inner wind as T(eff) changes during the S Dor cycle. These changes cause different Fe ionization structures in the inner wind. The bistability mechanism is also related to the different wind parameters during visual minima: the wind terminal velocity was 2-3 times higher and the mass-loss rate roughly two times smaller in 1985-1990 than in 2000-2003. We obtain a projected rotational velocity of 220 +/- 50 km s(-1) during 1985-1990 which, combined with the high luminosity (L(star) = 1.5 x 10(6) L(circle dot)), puts AG Car extremely close to the Eddington limit modified by rotation (Omega Gamma limit): for an inclination angle of 90 degrees, Gamma(Omega) greater than or similar to 1.0 for M(circle dot) less than or similar to 60. Based on evolutionary models and mass budget, we obtain an initial mass of similar to 100 M(circle dot) and a current mass of similar to 60-70 M(circle dot) for AG Car. Therefore, AG Car is close to, if not at, the Omega Gamma limit during visual minimum. Assuming M = 70 M(circle dot), we find that Gamma(Omega) decreases from 0.93 to 0.72 as AG Car expands toward visual maximum, suggesting that the star is not above the Eddington limit during maximum phases.

Coupling Virus-Induced Gene Silencing to Exogenous Green Fluorescence Protein Expression Provides a Highly Efficient System for Functional Genomics in Arabidopsis and across All Stages of Tomato Fruit Development

Since the advent of the postgenomic era, efforts have focused on the development of rapid strategies for annotating plant genes of unknown function. Given its simplicity and rapidity, virus-induced gene silencing (VIGS) has become one of the preeminent approaches for functional analyses. However, several problems remain intrinsic to the use of such a strategy in the study of both metabolic and developmental processes. The most prominent of these is the commonly observed phenomenon of ""sectoring"" the tissue regions that are not effectively targeted by VIGS. To better discriminate these sectors, an effective marker system displaying minimal secondary effects is a prerequisite. Utilizing a VIGS system based on the tobacco rattle virus vector, we here studied the effect of silencing the endogenous phytoene desaturase gene (pds) and the expression and subsequent silencing of the exogenous green fluorescence protein (gfp) on the metabolism of Arabidopsis (Arabidopsis thaliana) leaves and tomato (Solanum lycopersicum) fruits. In leaves, we observed dramatic effects on primary carbon and pigment metabolism associated with the photobleached phenotype following the silencing of the endogenous pds gene. However, relatively few pleiotropic effects on carbon metabolism were observed in tomato fruits when pds expression was inhibited. VIGS coupled to gfp constitutive expression revealed no significant metabolic alterations after triggering of silencing in Arabidopsis leaves and a mild effect in mature green tomato fruits. By contrast, a wider impact on metabolism was observed in ripe fruits. Silencing experiments with an endogenous target gene of interest clearly demonstrated the feasibility of cosilencing in this system; however, carefully constructed control experiments are a prerequisite to prevent erroneous interpretation.

The role of carbohydrates in seed germination and seedling establishment of Himatanthus sucuuba, an Amazonian tree with populations adapted to flooded and non-flooded conditions

Background and Aims In the Amazonian floodplains plants withstand annual periods of flooding which can last 7 months. Under these conditions seedlings remain submerged in the dark for long periods since light penetration in the water is limited. Himatanthus sucuuba is a tree species found in the `varzea` (VZ) floodplains and adjacent non-flooded `terra-firme` (TF) forests. Biochemical traits which enhance flood tolerance and colonization success of H. sucuuba in periodically flooded environments were investigated. Methods Storage carbohydrates of seeds of VZ and TF populations were extracted and analysed by HPAEC/PAD. Starch was analysed by enzyme (glucoamylase) degradation followed by quantification of glucose oxidase. Carbohydrate composition of roots of VZ and TF seedlings was studied after experimental exposure to a 15-d period of submersion in light versus darkness. Key Results The endosperm contains a large proportion of the seed reserves, raffinose being the main nonstructural carbohydrate. Around 93% of the cell wall storage polysaccharides (percentage dry weight basis) in the endosperm of VZ seeds was composed of mannose, while soluble sugars accounted for 2.5%. In contrast, 74% of the endosperm in TF seeds was composed of galactomannans, while 22% of the endosperm was soluble sugars. This suggested a larger carbohydrate allocation to germination in TF populations whereas VZ populations allocate comparatively more to carbohydrates mobilized during seedling development. The concentration of root non-structural carbohydrates in non-flooded seedlings strongly decreased after a 15-d period of darkness, whereas flooded seedlings were less affected. These effects were more pronounced in TF seedlings, which showed significantly lower root non-structural carbohydrate concentrations. Conclusions There seem to be metabolic adjustments in VZ but not TF seedlings that lead to adaptation to the combined stresses of darkness and flooding. This seems to be important for the survival of the species in these contrasting environments, leading these populations to different directions during evolution.

Paleoamerican Morphology in the Context of European and East Asian Late Pleistocene Variation: Implications for Human Dispersion Into the New World

Early American crania show a different morphological pattern from the one shared by late Native Americans. Although the origin of the diachronic morphological diversity seen on the continents is still debated, the distinct morphology of early Americans is well documented and widely dispersed. This morphology has been described extensively for South America, where larger samples are available. Here we test the hypotheses that the morphology of Early Americans results from retention of the morphological pattern of Late Pleistocene modern humans and that the occupation of the New World precedes the morphological differentiation that gave rise to recent Eurasian and American morphology. We compare Early American samples with European Upper Paleolithic skulls, the East Asian Zhoukoudian Upper Cave specimens and a series of 20 modern human reference crania. Canonical Analysis and Minimum Spanning Tree were used to assess the morphological affinities among the series, while Mantel and Dow-Cheverud tests based on Mahalanobis Squared Distances were used to test different evolutionary scenarios. Our results show strong morphological affinities among the early series irrespective of geographical origin, which together with the matrix analyses results favor the scenario of a late morphological differentiation of modern humans. We conclude that the geographic differentiation of modern human morphology is a late phenomenon that occurred after the initial settlement of the Americas. Am J Phys Anthropol 144:442-453, 2011. (c) 2010 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Genetic dissection of vitamin E biosynthesis in tomato

Vegetables are critical for human health as they are a source of multiple vitamins including vitamin E (VTE). In plants, the synthesis of VTE compounds, tocopherol and tocotrienol, derives from precursors of the shikimate and methylerythritol phosphate pathways. Quantitative trait loci (QTL) for alpha-tocopherol content in ripe fruit have previously been determined in an Solanum pennellii tomato introgression line population. In this work, variations of tocopherol isoforms (alpha, beta, gamma, and delta) in ripe fruits of these lines were studied. In parallel all tomato genes structurally associated with VTE biosynthesis were identified and mapped. Previously identified VTE QTL on chromosomes 6 and 9 were confirmed whilst novel ones were identified on chromosomes 7 and 8. Integrated analysis at the metabolic, genetic and genomic levels allowed us to propose 16 candidate loci putatively affecting tocopherol content in tomato. A comparative analysis revealed polymorphisms at nucleotide and amino acid levels between Solanum lycopersicum and S. pennellii candidate alleles. Moreover, evolutionary analyses showed the presence of codons evolving under both neutral and positive selection, which may explain the phenotypic differences between species. These data represent an important step in understanding the genetic determinants of VTE natural variation in tomato fruit and as such in the ability to improve the content of this important nutriceutical.