801 resultados para Electricity market prices forecast


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Seasonal and day-to-day variations in travel behaviour and performance of private passenger vehicles can be partially explained by changes in weather conditions. Likewise, in the electricity sector, weather affects energy demand. The impact of weather conditions on private passenger vehicle performance, usership statistics and travel behaviour has been studied for conventional, internal combustion engine, vehicles. Similarly, weather-driven variability in electricity demand and generation has been investigated widely. The aim of these analyses in both sectors is to improve energy efficiency, reduce consumption in peak hours and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. However, the potential effects of seasonal weather variations on electric vehicle usage have not yet been investigated. In Ireland the government has set a target requiring 10% of all vehicles in the transport fleet to be powered by electricity by 2020 to meet part of its European Union obligations to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and increase energy efficiency. This paper fills this knowledge gap by compiling some of the published information available for internal combustion engine vehicles and applying the lessons learned and results to electric vehicles with an analysis of historical weather data in Ireland and electricity market data in a number of what-if scenarios. Areas particularly impacted by weather conditions are battery performance, energy consumption and choice of transportation mode by private individuals.

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Dwindling fossil fuel resources and pressures to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions will result in a more diverse range of generation portfolios for future electricity systems. Irrespective of the portfolio mix the overarching requirement for all electricity suppliers and system operators is that supply instantaneously meets demand and that robust operating standards are maintained to ensure a consistent supply of high quality electricity to end-users. Therefore all electricity market participants will ultimately need to use a variety of tools to balance the power system. Thus the role of demand side management (DSM) with energy storage will be paramount to integrate future diverse generation portfolios. Electric water heating (EWH) has been studied previously, particularly at the domestic level to provide load control, peak shave and to benefit end-users financially with lower bills, particularly in vertically integrated monopolies. In this paper, a continuous Direct Load Control (DLC) EWH algorithm is applied in a liberalized market environment using actual historical electricity system and market data to examine the potential energy savings, cost reductions and electricity system operational improvements.

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Dwindling fossil fuel resources and pressures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions will result in a more diverse range of generation portfolios for future electricity systems. Irrespective of the portfolio mix the overarching requirement for all electricity suppliers and system operators is to instantaneously meet demand, to operate to standards and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Therefore all electricity market participants will ultimately need to use a variety of tools to balance the power system. Thus the role of demand side management with energy storage will be paramount to integrate future diverse generation portfolios. Electric water heating has been studied previously, particularly at the domestic level to provide load control, peak shave and to bene?t end-users ?nancially with lower bills, particularly in vertically integrated monopolies. In this paper a number of continuous direct load control demand response based electric water heating algorithms are modelled to test the effectiveness of wholesale electricity market signals to study the system bene?ts. The results are compared and contrasted to determine which control algorithm showed the best potential for energy savings, system marginal price savings and wind integration.

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Installed wind capacity in the European Union is expected to continue to increase due to renewable energy targets and obligations to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Renewable energy sources such as wind power are variable sources of power. Energy storage technologies are useful to manage the issues associated with variable renewable energy sources and align non-dispatchable renewable energy generation with load demands. Energy storage technologies can play different roles in electric power systems and can be used in each of the steps of the electric power supply chain. Moreover, large scale energy storage systems can act as renewable energy integrators by smoothening the variability of large penetrations of wind power. Compress Air Energy Storage is one such technology. The aim of this paper is to examine the technical and economic feasibility of a combined gas storage and compressed air energy storage facility in the all-island Single Electricity Market of Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland in order to optimise power generation and wind power integration. This analysis is undertaken using the electricity market software PLEXOS ® for power systems by developing a model of a combined facility in 2020.

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In the United Kingdom wind power is recognised as the main source of renewable energy to achieve the European Union 2020 renewable energy targets. Currently over 50% of renewable power is generated from onshore wind with a large number of offshore wind projects in development. Recently the government has re-iterated its commitment to offshore wind power and has announced that offshore wind subsidies are to increase from £135/MWh to £140/MWh until 2019. This paper provides a detailed overview of the offshore wind power industry in the United Kingdom in terms of market growth, policy development and offshore wind farm costs. The paper clearly shows that the United Kingdom is the world leader for installed offshore wind power capacity as pro-active policies and procedures have made it the most attractive location to develop offshore wind farm arrays. The key finding is that the United Kingdom has the potential to continue to lead the world in offshore wind power as it has over 48 GW of offshore wind power projects at different stages of operation and development. The growth of offshore wind power in the United Kingdom has seen offshore wind farm costs rise and level off at approximately £3 million/MW, which are higher than onshore wind costs at £1.5–2 million/MW. Considering the recent increase in offshore wind power subsidies and plans for 48 GW of offshore wind power could see more offshore wind power becoming increasingly financially competitive with onshore wind power. Therefore offshore wind power is likely to become a significant source of electricity in the United Kingdom beyond 2020.

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After the outbreak of war in 1914 and the subsequent blockade implemented by British navy, the German economy faced serious food shortages leading to famine-like conditions, especially towards the end of the war. As a response to these shortages, the German authorities introduced and implemented socialist policies such as price ceilings and food rations. This study focuses on the inefficient use of high-quality foodstuffs by members of lower social strata by discussing consumer decisions during the First World War from a microeconomic perspective. The German rationing system provided small, but valuable – measured by black market prices – quantities of superior foodstuffs. Especially meat could have been traded on flourishing black markets for greater quantities of inferior staple foods such as bread and potatoes. In this paper I argue that a more efficient use of rations by the poor could have improved their nutritional situation.

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This paper describes a fridge-freezer smart load model, which responds to external signals from the wholesale electricity market to support grid operations while switching the fridge-freezer on and off to maintain optimum operations for the owner. The key parameters of the model are the appliance dimensions, thermal mass, the fridge and freezer thermal time constants and the compressor power consumption. The model demonstrates that control strategies help to minimise load at times when the grid is under stress from high demand, and shift some load to a lower wholesale price or when there is excess renewable power. Three control strategies are proposed, based on peak shaving and valley filling, price signals and wind availability.

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Electric vehicles (EVs) offer great potential to move from fossil fuel dependency in transport once some of the technical barriers related to battery reliability and grid integration are resolved. The European Union has set a target to achieve a 10% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2020 relative to 2005 levels. This target is binding in all the European Union member states. If electric vehicle issues are overcome then the challenge is to use as much renewable energy as possible to achieve this target. In this paper, the impacts of electric vehicle charged in the all-Ireland single wholesale electricity market after the 2020 deadline passes is investigated using a power system dispatch model. For the purpose of this work it is assumed that a 10% electric vehicle target in the Republic of Ireland is not achieved, but instead 8% is reached by 2025 considering the slow market uptake of electric vehicles. Our experimental study shows that the increasing penetration of EVs could contribute to approach the target of the EU and Ireland government on emissions reduction, regardless of different charging scenarios. Furthermore, among various charging scenarios, the off-peak charging is the best approach, contributing 2.07% to the target of 10% reduction of Greenhouse gas emissions by 2025.

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The need for fast response demand side participation (DSP) has never been greater due to increased wind power penetration. White domestic goods suppliers are currently developing a `smart' chip for a range of domestic appliances (e.g. refrigeration units, tumble dryers and storage heaters) to support the home as a DSP unit in future power systems. This paper presents an aggregated population-based model of a single compressor fridge-freezer. Two scenarios (i.e. energy efficiency class and size) for valley filling and peak shaving are examined to quantify and value DSP savings in 2020. The analysis shows potential peak reductions of 40 MW to 55 MW are achievable in the Single wholesale Electricity Market of Ireland (i.e. the test system), and valley demand increases of up to 30 MW. The study also shows the importance of the control strategy start time and the staggering of the devices to obtain the desired filling or shaving effect.

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The decoupling of CAP payments leads production decisions and resources allocation to be more dependent on market prices and competitive advantages. The objective of this paper is to assess the effects of CAP trends on the montado/dehesa traditional ecosystem of Mediterranean regions in terms of farm income, land, labour and capital. A positive mathematical supply model disaggregated by the montado agro-forestry production systems of the Alentejo region in southern Portugal is developed. The results show that decoupling payments of CAP have negative economic effects on agricultural activities and resource use. Agricultural income increases with single farm payments but the foreseen increases in prices do not compensate the loss of the Agenda 2000 area payments in terms of competitiveness. These results reinforce the need to promote alternative agricultural and non-agricultural activities and policies in Mediterranean rural European areas and regions. (C) 2011 Society for Policy Modeling. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

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Dissertação de mestrado, Aquacultura, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia, Universidade do Algarve, 2011

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In this paper, the development of bidding strategies is investigated for a wind farm owner. The optimization model is characterized by making the analysis of scenarios. The proposed approach allows evaluating alternative production strategies in order to submit bids to the electricity market with the goal of maximizing profits. The problem is formulated as a linear programming problem. An application to a case study is presented

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All over the world Distributed Generation is seen as a valuable help to get cleaner and more efficient electricity. Under this context distributed generators, owned by different decentralized players can provide a significant amount of the electricity generation. To get negotiation power and advantages of scale economy, these players can be aggregated giving place to a new concept: the Virtual Power Producer. Virtual Power Producers are multi-technology and multi-site heterogeneous entities. Virtual Power Producers should adopt organization and management methodologies so that they can make Distributed Generation a really profitable activity, able to participate in the market. In this paper we address the integration of Virtual Power Producers into an electricity market simulator –MASCEM – as a coalition of distributed producers.

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The concept of demand response has a growing importance in the context of the future power systems. Demand response can be seen as a resource like distributed generation, storage, electric vehicles, etc. All these resources require the existence of an infrastructure able to give players the means to operate and use them in an efficient way. This infrastructure implements in practice the smart grid concept, and should accommodate a large number of diverse types of players in the context of a competitive business environment. In this paper, demand response is optimally scheduled jointly with other resources such as distributed generation units and the energy provided by the electricity market, minimizing the operation costs from the point of view of a virtual power player, who manages these resources and supplies the aggregated consumers. The optimal schedule is obtained using two approaches based on particle swarm optimization (with and without mutation) which are compared with a deterministic approach that is used as a reference methodology. A case study with two scenarios implemented in DemSi, a demand Response simulator developed by the authors, evidences the advantages of the use of the proposed particle swarm approaches.

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Congestion management of transmission power systems has achieve high relevance in competitive environments, which require an adequate approach both in technical and economic terms. This paper proposes a new methodology for congestion management and transmission tariff determination in deregulated electricity markets. The congestion management methodology is based on a reformulated optimal power flow, whose main goal is to obtain a feasible solution for the re-dispatch minimizing the changes in the transactions resulting from market operation. The proposed transmission tariffs consider the physical impact caused by each market agents in the transmission network. The final tariff considers existing system costs and also costs due to the initial congestion situation and losses. This paper includes a case study for the 118 bus IEEE test case.