An adaptive neural-wavelet model for short term load forecasting

This paper proposed a novel model for short term load forecast in the competitive electricity market. The prior electricity demand data are treated as time series. The forecast model is based on wavelet multi-resolution decomposition by autocorrelation shell representation and neural networks (multilayer perceptrons, or MLPs) modeling of wavelet coefficients. To minimize the influence of noisy low level coefficients, we applied the practical Bayesian method Automatic Relevance Determination (ARD) model to choose the size of MLPs, which are then trained to provide forecasts. The individual wavelet domain forecasts are recombined to form the accurate overall forecast. The proposed method is tested using Queensland electricity demand data from the Australian National Electricity Market. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Phylogenetic analysis of the Monocotylidae (Monogenea) inferred from 28S rDNA sequences

The current classification of the Monocotylidae (Monogenea) is based on a phylogeny generated from morphological characters. The present study tests the morphological phylogenetic hypothesis using molecular methods. Sequences from domains C2 and D1 and the partial domains C1 and D2 from the 28S rDNA gene for 26 species of monocotylids from six of the seven subfamilies were used. Trees were generated using maximum parsimony, neighbour joining and maximum likelihood algorithms. The maximum parsimony tree, with branches showing less than 70% bootstrap support collapsed, had a topology identical to that obtained using the maximum likelihood analysis. The neighbour joining tree, with branches showing less than 70% support collapsed. differed only in its placement of Heterocotyle capricornensis as the sister group to the Decacotylinae clade. The molecular tree largely supports the subfamilies established using morphological characters. Differences are primarily how the subfamilies are related to each other. The monophyly of the Calicotylinae and Merizocotylinae and their sister group relationship is supported by high bootstrap values in all three methods, but relationships within the Merizocotylinae are unclear. Merizocotyle is paraphyletic and our data suggest that Mycteronastes and Thaumatocotyle, which were synonymized with Merizocotyle after the morphological cladistic analysis, should perhaps be resurrected as valid genera. The monophyly of the Monocotylinae and Decacotylinae is also supported by high bootstrap values. The Decacotylinae, which was considered previously to be the sister group to the Calicotylinae plus Merizocotylinae, is grouped in an unresolved polychotomy with the Monocotylinae and members of the Heterocotylinae. According to our molecular data, the Heterocotylinae is paraphyletic. Molecular data support a sister group relationship between Troglocephalus rhinobatidis and Neoheterocotyle rhinobatidis to the exclusion of the other species of Neoheterocotyle and recognition of Troglocephalus renders Neoheterocotyle,le paraphyletic. We propose Troglocephalus incertae sedis. An updated classification and full species list of the Monocotylidae is provided. (C) 2001 Australian Society for Parasitology Inc. Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Calicotyle conundrum: do molecules reveal more than morphology?

Partial large subunit 28S rDNA sequences were obtained for specimens of Calicotyle (Monogenea: Monocotylidae) from eight different host species distributed worldwide to test the validity of some species and to address the question of host-specificity in others. Sequences obtained for Calicotyle specimens identified as C. kroyeri based on morphological methods from the type-host Raja radiata (Rajidae) and an additional host R. clavata, both from the North Sea, were identical. However, 'C. kroyeri' from the cloaca of R. naevus from Tunisia, Raja sp. A from Tasmania and R. radula from Tunisia differed from C. kroyeri from R. radiata by five (0.51%), 21 (2.13%) and 39 (3.96%) base pairs, respectively, over 984 sites. Therefore, it is likely that the specimens from Raja sp. A, R. radula and perhaps even from R. naevus are not C. kroyeri. Molecular results determined that the calicotylines from the cloaca of Urolophus cruciatus and U. paucimaculatus (Urolophidae) from southern Tasmania identified previously as C. urolophi are indeed identical. Large subunit 28S rDNA sequences of C. palombi and C. stossichi collected from the cloaca and rectal gland, respectively of Mustelus mustelus (Triakidae) from the coast of Tunisia differ sufficiently for these calicotylines to be considered separate and valid species. Our results indicate that some species of Calicotyle are not strictly host-specific, but that C. kroyeri may not be as widely distributed in rajids as was believed previously. Calicotyle specimens from rajids must be re-examined critically to determine whether there are morphological differences indicative of specific differences that may have been overlooked previously.

Identical digeneans in coral reef fishes from French Polynesia and the Great Barrier Reef (Australia) demonstrated by morphology and molecules

Three coral reef fish species, Zanclus cornutus, Chaetodon vagabundus and Naso lituratus, were collected in French Polynesia and on the Great Barrier Reef, Queensland. These fish species were each infected by one morphologically similar digenean species in both localities; Schistorchis Zancli Hanson, 1953 was found in Zanclus cornutus. Preptetos laguncula Bray and Cribb, 1996 in Naso lituratus and Neohypocreadium dorsoporum Machida and Uchida, 1987 in Chaetodon vagabundus. In addition, on the Great Barrier Reef P. laguncula was also found in Naso unicornis and N. dorsoporum in Chaetodon ephippium and Chaetodon flavirostris. Morphometric differences between the species from the two sites were only slight. Sequences from the second internal transcribed spacer of the ribosomal DNA of each worm revealed total homology or negligible divergence between samples from hosts caught in French Polynesia and on the Great Barrier Reef. These results show that across more than 6000 km these digeneans are similar in morphology and genotype. Some species of fishes and molluscs a-re considered to have distributions that encompass the entire tropical Indo-West Pacific. These findings suggest that at least some of their parasites have similarly broad distributions. (C) 2001 Australian Society for Parasitology Inc. Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Neonatal hepatic drug elimination

After the transition from in utero to newborn life, the neonate becomes solely reliant upon its own drug clearance processes to metabolise xenobiotics. Whilst most studies of neonatal hepatic drug elimination have focussed upon in vitro expression and activities of drug-metabolising enzymes, the rapid physiological changes in the early neonatal period of life also need to be considered. There are dramatic changes in neonatal liver blood how and hepatic oxygenation due to the loss of the umbilical blood supply, the increasing portal vein blood flow, and the gradual closure of the ductus venosus shunt during the first week of life. These changes which may well affect the capacity of neonatal hepatic drug metabolism. The hepatic expression of cytochromes P450 1A2, 2C, 2D6, 2E1 and 3A4 develop at different rates in the postnatal period, whilst 3A7 expression diminishes. Hepatic glucuronidation in the human neonate is relatively immature at birth, which contrasts with the considerably more mature neonatal hepatic sulfation activity. Limited in vivo studies show that the human neonate can significantly metabolise xenobiotics but clearance is considerably less compared with the older infant and adult. The neonatal population included in pharmacological studies is highly heterogeneous with respect to age, body weight, ductus venosus closure and disease processes, making it difficult to interpret data arising from human neonatal studies. Studies in the perfused foetal and neonatal sheep liver have demonstrated how the oxidative and conjugative hepatic elimination of drugs by the intact organ is significantly increased during the first week of life, highlighting that future studies will need to consider the profound physiological changes that may influence neonatal hepatic drug elimination shortly after birth.

The measurement of Pitot pressure in high enthalpy expansion tubes

Expansion tubes operating at total flow enthalpies of 100 MJ kg(-1) or more have characteristical test times of 30-50 mus. Under these conditions, the response time of the Pitot pressure measuring device is critical when performing flow calibration studies. The conventional technique of using a commercial pressure transducer protected by shielding has not always proven to be effective, due to the relatively large (and variable) response time caused by the shielding. A device called the stress wave bar gauge has been designed and calibrated and shown to be an effective way to measure the Pitot pressure with a response time of only 2-3 mus.

Monitoring tissue oxygenation during resuscitation of major burns

BACKGROUND: Because subcutaneous and splanchnic oxygenation indices are sensitive indicators of evolving hemorrhagic shock and adequacy of resuscitation, we postulated that these indices might have an equivalent role in the monitoring of severely burned patients. This observational study was undertaken to examine changes in tissue oxygenation indices during burn resuscitation. METHODS: Seven patients with major burns (54 +/- 21% total body surface area) were studied during the first 36 hours of fluid resuscitation. Silastic tubing was placed in the subcutaneous tissue just beneath both normal skin and deep partial thickness burn. Fiberoptic sensors inserted into the tubing measured subcutaneous oxygen and carbon dioxide tensions in the burnt skin (PO2scb and PCO2scb) and normal skin (PO2scn and PCO2scn) continuously. Gastric intramucosal pH (pHi) and the mucosal CO2 (PCO2m) gap were calculated using gastric tonometers. Mean arterial pressure, arterial pH, lactate, and pHi measurements were obtained for 36 hours. RESULTS: There were no significant differences in mean arterial pressure, arterial pH, or lactate concentrations throughout the study period, whereas indices of tissue oxygenation showed deterioration: pHi decreased from 7.2 +/- 0.1 to 6.7 +/- 0.3 (p = 0.06), the PCO2m gap increased from 12 +/- 17 to 108 +/- 123 mm Hg (p < 0.01), PO2scn decreased from 112 +/- 18 to 50 +/- 11 mm Hg (p < 0.01), PO2scb decreased from 62 +/- 23 to 29 +/- 16 mm Hg (p < 0.01), PCO2scn increased from 42 +/- 4 to 46 +/- 10 mm Hg (p = 0.2), and PCO2scb increased from 42 +/- 10 to 52 +/- 5 mm Hg (p = 0.05). CONCLUSION: Despite adequate global indices of tissue perfusion after 36 hours of resuscitation, tissue monitoring indicated significant deterioration in the splanchnic circulation and in the normal and burnt skin.

Transient mesenteric ischaemic episodes tracked by continuous jejunal PCO2 monitoring during liquid feeding

Objective: To test the effect of liquid feeds on the responses to splanchnic ischaemia of a continuous rapid response PCO2 sensor inserted in the jejunum. Design: Prospective experimental animal study in a university research laboratory. Subjects: Adult male Wistar rats. Interventions: Adult male Wistar rats (285-425 g) were anaethetised with sodium pentobarbitone 60 mg/ kg i.p. and ventilated with 100 % oxygen and isoflurane via tracheostomy to a PaCO2 of 30-40 mmHg. A sensor was inserted into the mid-jejunum to record PCO2 every second. Distal aortic pressure was transduced. Four control rats received no feeds whilst in another four rats liquid feed was infused into the proximal jejunum at 3 ml/h. In each rat five episodes of splanchnic ischaemia were induced by 2-min elevations of an aortic sling to a mean distal aortic pressure of 30 mmHg. Measurements and main results: PCO2 elevations were always detectable, usually less than a minute from the onset of splanchnic ischaemia in both fed and unfed rats, with no difference in mean times to detectable response. In the fed rats there was a small but significant increase in the time to peak sensor response (196 +/- 16 vs. 180 +/- 12 s) and a trend towards an elevated mean baseline luminal PCO2 (67 +/- 9 vs. 55 +/- 4 mmHg). Conclusions: Brief episodes of splanchnic ischaemia were tracked successfully by a rapid response jejunal continuous PCO2 sensor during the infusion of a proprietary liquid feed preparation despite minor changes in PCO2 response characteristics and a possible elevation in baseline luminal PCO2.

Reduced Red Cell 2,3-Diphosphoglycerate Concentrations in Critical Illness without Decreased In Vivo P50

We investigated whether red cell 2,3-diphosphoglycerate (2,3-DPG) concentrations are reduced in critical illness, whether acidaemia, hypophosphataemia or anaemia influence 2,3-DPG, and whether there is any net effect on in vivo P50. Twenty healthy, non-smoking, male volunteers were compared with 20 male intensive care patients with APACHE 2 scores > 20 on the preceding day. Those transfused in this time were excluded. Venous red cell 2,3-DPG concentrations were measured in both groups. In the patient group, routine multichannel biochemical profile and arterial blood gas analysis were also performed and in vivo P50 calculated. The mean 2,3-DPG concentration was significantly lower in the patient group than in the controls (4.2 +/-1.3 mmoll/l vs 4.9 +/-0.5 mmol/l, P=0.016). The patients were well oxygenated (lowest arterial PO2=75 mm Hg) and showed a tendency to acidaemia (median pH 7.37, range 7.06 to 7.48) and anaemia (median haemoglobin concentration 113 g/l, range 89 to 154 g/l). By linear regression of patient data, pH had a significant effect on 2,3-DPG concentrations (r=0.6, P=0.011). Haemoglobin and phosphate concentrations did not, but there were few abnormal phosphate values. There was no correlation between 2,3-DPG concentrations and in vivo P50 (r(2) less than or equal to 0.08). We conclude that 2,3-DPG concentrations were reduced in a broad group of critically ill patients. Although this would normally reduce the P50, the reduction was primarily linked with acidaemia, which increases the P50. Overall, there was no net effect on the P50 and thus no affinity-related decrease in tissue oxygenation.

Simulations of thermal Bose fields in the classical limit

We demonstrate that the time-dependent projected Gross-Pitaevskii equation (GPE) derived earlier [M. J. Davis, R. J. Ballagh, and K. Burnett, J. Phys. B 34, 4487 (2001)] can represent the highly occupied modes of a homogeneous, partially-condensed Bose gas. Contrary to the often held belief that the GPE is valid only at zero temperature, we find that this equation will evolve randomized initial wave functions to a state describing thermal equilibrium. In the case of small interaction strengths or low temperatures, our numerical results can be compared to the predictions of Bogoliubov theory and its perturbative extensions. This demonstrates the validity of the GPE in these limits and allows us to assign a temperature to the simulations unambiguously. However, the GPE method is nonperturbative, and we believe it can be used to describe the thermal properties of a Bose gas even when Bogoliubov theory fails. We suggest a different technique to measure the temperature of our simulations in these circumstances. Using this approach we determine the dependence of the condensate fraction and specific heat on temperature for several interaction strengths, and observe the appearance of vortex networks. Interesting behavior near the critical point is observed and discussed.

Acute characteristics of pediatric dysphagia subsequent to traumatic brain injury: Videofluoroscopic assessment

Objective: To document the acute characteristics of swallowing impairment in a group of children post moderate/severe traumatic brain injury (TBI) by means of videofluoroscopy. Participants: Eighteen children with moderate/severe TBI. Main Outcome Measure: Videofluoroscopy at an average of 27.7 days post-injury. Results: Subjects demonstrated a range of dysphagia severity levels: mild-moderate (n = 8), moderate (n = 6), moderate-severe (n = 3), and severe (n = 1) and had a combination of oral and pharyngeal phase characteristics. More specifically; observable features or physiological impairments that were identified included reduced lingual control, hesitancy of tongue movement, repetitive tongue pumping, the presence of aspiration (including silent aspiration), delayed swallow reflex trigger, reduced laryngeal elevation and closure, and reduced peristalsis. Conclusions: These data highlight the diversity of swallowing deficits and dysphagia severity levels in children following TBI and suggest that the former are consistent with a pattern of oropharyngeal impairments.

Novel application of biological glue in the management of a complicated pneumothorax in cystic fibrosis

Spontaneous pneumothorax is a frequent complication in advanced lung disease of cystic fibrosis. We describe a case of a complicated pneumothorax in a 21-year old-woman with cystic fibrosis who was effectively treated with the application of biological glue via a minithoracotomy. (C) 2002 Wiley-Liss, Inc.