Speculative bubbles and contagion: analysis of volatility’s clusters during the DotCom bubble based on the dynamic conditional correlation model

Revendo a definição e determinação de bolhas especulativas no contexto de contágio, este estudo analisa a bolha do DotCom nos mercados acionistas americanos e europeus usando o modelo de correlação condicional dinâmica (DCC) proposto por Engle e Sheppard (2001) como uma explicação econométrica e, por outro lado, as finanças comportamentais como uma explicação psicológica. Contágio é definido, neste contexto, como a quebra estatística nos DCC’s estimados, medidos através das alterações das suas médias e medianas. Surpreendentemente, o contágio é menor durante bolhas de preços, sendo que o resultado principal indica a presença de contágio entre os diferentes índices dos dois continentes e demonstra a presença de alterações estruturais durante a crise financeira.

Speculative bubbles and contagion: analysis of volatility's clusters during the DotCom bubble based on the dynamic conditional correlation model

Reviewing the de nition and measurement of speculative bubbles in context of contagion, this paper analyses the DotCom bubble in American and European equity markets using the dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) model proposed by (Engle and Sheppard 2001) as on one hand as an econometrics explanation and on the other hand the behavioral nance as an psychological explanation. Contagion is de ned in this context as the statistical break in the computed DCCs as measured by the shifts in their means and medians. Even it is astonishing, that the contagion is lower during price bubbles, the main nding indicates the presence of contagion in the di¤erent indices among those two continents and proves the presence of structural changes during nancial crisis

Towards coherent optical control of a single hole spin: Rabi rotation of a trion conditional on the spin state of the hole

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Aging reduces complexity of heart rate variability assessed by conditional entropy and symbolic analysis

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Conditional reasoning: A key to assessing computer-based knowledge-building communication processes

This article describes a methodological approach to conditional reasoning in online asynchronous learning environments such as Virtual-U VGroups, developed by SFU, BC, Canada, consistent with the notion of meaning implication: If part of a meaning C is embedded in B and a part of a meaning B is embedded in A, then A implies C in terms of meaning [Piaget 91]. A new transcript analysis technique was developed to assess the flows of conditional meaning implications and to identify the occurrence of hypotheses and connections among them in two human science graduate mixed-mode online courses offered in the summer/spring session of 1997 by SFU. Flows of conditional meaning implications were confronted with Virtual-U VGroups threads and results of the two courses were compared. Findings suggest that Virtual-U VGroups is a knowledge-building environment although the tree-like Virtual-U VGroups threads should be transformed into neuronal-like threads. Findings also suggest that formulating hypotheses together triggers a collaboratively problem-solving process that scaffolds knowledge-building in asynchronous learning environments: A pedagogical technique and an built-in tool for formulating hypotheses together are proposed. © Springer Pub. Co.

Meeting the millennium poverty reduction targets in Latin America and the Caribbean

Includes bibliography

Conditional cash transfer programmes: experiences from Latin America

Includes bibliography

Provisional customs tariff for the East Caribbean Common Market with list of conditional duty exemptions and reductions

Includes bibliography

Conditional cash transfer programmes: the recent experience in Latin America and the Caribbean

Includes Bibliography

Seasonal variability of a conditional stability constant and the characterization of sedimentary humic substances from typical agricultural and urban areas

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Reactive power planning under conditional-value-at-risk assessment using chance-constrained optimisation

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

EMERGENT CONDITIONAL RELATIONS IN A GO/NO-GO PROCEDURE: FIGURE-GROUND AND STIMULUS-POSITION COMPOUND RELATIONS

Past research has demonstrated emergent conditional relations using a go/no-go procedure with pairs of figures displayed side-by-side on a computer screen. The present Study sought to extend applications Of this procedure. In Experiment, 1, we evaluated whether emergent conditional relations Could be demonstrated when two-component stimuli were displayed in figure-ground relationships-abstract figures displayed on backgrounds of different colors. Five normal)), capable adults participated. During training, each two-component stimulus Was presented successively. Responses emitted in the presence of some Stimulus pairs (A1B1, A2B2, A3B3, B1C1, B2C2 and B3C3) were reinforced, whereas responses emitted in the presence of other pairs (A1B2, A1B3, A2B1, A2B3, A3B1, A3B2, B1C2, B1C3, B2C1, B2C3, B3C1 and B3C2) were not. During tests, new configurations (AC and CA) were presented, thus emulating structurally the matching-to-sample tests employed in typical equivalence Studies. All participants showed emergent relations consistent with stimulus equivalence during testing. In Experiment 2, we systematically replicated the procedures with Stimulus compounds consisting Of four figures (A1, A2, C1 and C2) and two locations (left - B1 and right - 132). A,11 6 normally capable adults exhibited emergent stimulus-stimulus relations. Together, these experiments show that the go/no-go procedure is a potentially useful alternative for Studying emergent. conditional relations when matching-to-sample is procedurally cumbersome or impossible to use.

The impact of the Bolsa Escola/Familia conditional cash transfer program on enrollment, dropout rates and grade promotion in Brazil

We examine the impact of Brazil's Bolsa Escola/Familia program on Brazilian children's education outcomes. Bolsa provides cash payments to poor households if their children (ages 6 to 15) are enrolled in school. Using school census data to compare changes in enrollment, dropping out and grade promotion across schools that adopted Bolsa at different times, we estimate that the program has: increased enrollment by about 5.5% (6.5%) in grades 1-4 (grades 5-8); lowered dropout rates by 0.5 (0.4) percentage points in grades 1-4 (grades 5-8); and raised grade promotion rates by 0.9 (0.3) percentage points in grades 1-4 (grades 5-8). About one third of Brazil's children participate in Bolsa, so assuming no spillover effects onto non-participants implies that Bolsa's impacts are three times higher than these estimates. However, simple calculations using enrollment impacts suggest that Bolsa's benefits in terms of increased wages may not exceed its costs. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Aging reduces complexity of heart rate variability assessed by conditional entropy and symbolic analysis

Increasing age is associated with a reduction in overall heart rate variability as well as changes in complexity of physiologic dynamics. The aim of this study was to verify if the alterations in autonomic modulation of heart rate caused by the aging process could be detected by Shannon entropy (SE), conditional entropy (CE) and symbolic analysis (SA). Complexity analysis was carried out in 44 healthy subjects divided into two groups: old (n = 23, 63 +/- A 3 years) and young group (n = 21, 23 +/- A 2). It was analyzed SE, CE [complexity index (CI) and normalized CI (NCI)] and SA (0V, 1V, 2LV and 2ULV patterns) during short heart period series (200 cardiac beats) derived from ECG recordings during 15 min of rest in a supine position. The sequences characterized by three heart periods with no significant variations (0V), and that with two significant unlike variations (2ULV) reflect changes in sympathetic and vagal modulation, respectively. The unpaired t test (or Mann-Whitney rank sum test when appropriate) was used in the statistical analysis. In the aging process, the distributions of patterns (SE) remain similar to young subjects. However, the regularity is significantly different; the patterns are more repetitive in the old group (a decrease of CI and NCI). The amounts of pattern types are different: 0V is increased and 2LV and 2ULV are reduced in the old group. These differences indicate marked change of autonomic regulation. The CE and SA are feasible techniques to detect alteration in autonomic control of heart rate in the old group.