963 resultados para Bayes Formula
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In diesem Artikel möchten wir anhand eigener Untersuchungen und der Präsentation bereits vorhandener Studien einerseits einen Einblick in die Welt der 50+ Sprachkurse geben und andererseits mögliche Lösungen für eine an das Zielpublikum angepasste Didaktik vorstellen. Bei den erforschten Sprachkursen handelt es sich um drei unterschiedliche Kurstypen mit den dazugehörigen Kursteilnehmertypologien. Das erste Forschungsfeld umfasst Sprachkurse, die von der Berner Volkshochschule angeboten und teilweise von Personen im Alter von 50 und älter besucht werden. Zum zweiten Kurstyp gehören solche Kurse, die im Ausland besucht werden. Im vorliegenden Fall ein Italienischkurs in Sizilien mit einem expliziten Freizeitprogramm für Personen ab 50. Das dritte Untersuchungsfeld betrifft einen etwas anderen Typ von Kursteilnehmern, da es sich um einen Deutschkurs für pensionierte italienische MigrantInnen in Bern handelt. Die abschliessenden Vorschläge für eine an die älteren Kursteilnehmer angepasste Didaktik sollen dabei nicht als allgemeingültige Rezepte betrachtet werden, sondern als erste Anregungspunkte.
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hrsg. von Friedrich Wilhelm Christoph Tauffenburg
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hrsg. von Friedrich Wilhelm Christoph Tauffenberg
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hrsg. von Friedrich Wilhelm Christoph Tauffenberg
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In this work we propose the adoption of a statistical framework used in the evaluation of forensic evidence as a tool for evaluating and presenting circumstantial "evidence" of a disease outbreak from syndromic surveillance. The basic idea is to exploit the predicted distributions of reported cases to calculate the ratio of the likelihood of observing n cases given an ongoing outbreak over the likelihood of observing n cases given no outbreak. The likelihood ratio defines the Value of Evidence (V). Using Bayes' rule, the prior odds for an ongoing outbreak are multiplied by V to obtain the posterior odds. This approach was applied to time series on the number of horses showing clinical respiratory symptoms or neurological symptoms. The separation between prior beliefs about the probability of an outbreak and the strength of evidence from syndromic surveillance offers a transparent reasoning process suitable for supporting decision makers. The value of evidence can be translated into a verbal statement, as often done in forensics or used for the production of risk maps. Furthermore, a Bayesian approach offers seamless integration of data from syndromic surveillance with results from predictive modeling and with information from other sources such as disease introduction risk assessments.
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Neonatal energy metabolism in calves has to adapt to extrauterine life and depends on colostrum feeding. The adrenergic and glucocorticoid systems are involved in postnatal maturation of pathways related to energy metabolism and calves show elevated plasma concentrations of cortisol and catecholamines during perinatal life. We tested the hypothesis that hepatic glucocorticoid receptors (GR) and α₁- and β₂-adrenergic receptors (AR) in neonatal calves are involved in adaptation of postnatal energy metabolism and that respective binding capacities depend on colostrum feeding. Calves were fed colostrum (CF; n=7) or a milk-based formula (FF; n=7) with similar nutrient content up to d 4 of life. Blood samples were taken daily before feeding and 2h after feeding on d 4 of life to measure metabolites and hormones related to energy metabolism in blood plasma. Liver tissue was obtained 2 h after feeding on d 4 to measure hepatic fat content and binding capacity of AR and GR. Maximal binding capacity and binding affinity were calculated by saturation binding assays using [(3)H]-prazosin and [(3)H]-CGP-12177 for determination of α₁- and β₂-AR and [(3)H]-dexamethasone for determination of GR in liver. Additional liver samples were taken to measure mRNA abundance of AR and GR, and of key enzymes related to hepatic glucose and lipid metabolism. Plasma concentrations of albumin, triacylglycerides, insulin-like growth factor I, leptin, and thyroid hormones changed until d 4 and all these variables except leptin and thyroid hormones responded to feed intake on d 4. Diet effects were determined for albumin, insulin-like growth factor I, leptin, and thyroid hormones. Binding capacity for GR was greater and for α₁-AR tended to be greater in CF than in FF calves. Binding affinities were in the same range for each receptor type. Gene expression of α₁-AR (ADRA1) tended to be lower in CF than FF calves. Binding capacity of GR was related to parameters of glucose and lipid metabolism, whereas β₂-AR binding capacity was negatively associated with glucose metabolism. In conclusion, our results indicate a dependence of GR and α₁-AR on milk feeding immediately after birth and point to an involvement of hepatic GR and AR in postnatal adaptation of glucose and lipid metabolism in calves.
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We consider the problem of twenty questions with noisy answers, in which we seek to find a target by repeatedly choosing a set, asking an oracle whether the target lies in this set, and obtaining an answer corrupted by noise. Starting with a prior distribution on the target's location, we seek to minimize the expected entropy of the posterior distribution. We formulate this problem as a dynamic program and show that any policy optimizing the one-step expected reduction in entropy is also optimal over the full horizon. Two such Bayes optimal policies are presented: one generalizes the probabilistic bisection policy due to Horstein and the other asks a deterministic set of questions. We study the structural properties of the latter, and illustrate its use in a computer vision application.
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Steiner’s tube formula states that the volume of an ϵ-neighborhood of a smooth regular domain in Rn is a polynomial of degree n in the variable ϵ whose coefficients are curvature integrals (also called quermassintegrals). We prove a similar result in the sub-Riemannian setting of the first Heisenberg group. In contrast to the Euclidean setting, we find that the volume of an ϵ-neighborhood with respect to the Heisenberg metric is an analytic function of ϵ that is generally not a polynomial. The coefficients of the series expansion can be explicitly written in terms of integrals of iteratively defined canonical polynomials of just five curvature terms.
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The Frobenius solution to Legendre/s equation is developed in detail as is Rodrigue's formula, which is employed to normalize Legendre polynomials.
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A single formula assigns a continuous utility function to every representable preference relation.
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Vorbesitzer: Dominikanerkloster Frankfurt am Main