Predicting Market Crashes: An Examination of the Performance of Macroeconomic Indicators and Technical Analysis

The purpose of this study is to examine macroeconomic indicators‟ and technical analysis‟ ability to signal market crashes. Indicators examined were Yield Spread, The Purchasing Managers Index and the Consumer Confidence Index. Technical Analysis indicators were moving average, Moving Average Convergence-Divergence and Relative Strength Index. We studied if commonly used macroeconomic indicators can be used as a warning system for a stock market crashes as well. The hypothesis is that the signals of recession can be used as signals of stock market crash and that way a basis for a hedging strategy. The data is collected from the U.S. markets from the years 1983-2010. Empirical studies show that macroeconomic indicators have been able to explain the future GDP development in the U.S. in research period and they were statistically significant. A hedging strategy that combined the signals of yield spread and Consumer Confidence Index gave most useful results as a basis of a hedging strategy in selected time period. It was able to outperform buy-and-hold strategy as well as all of the technical indicator based hedging strategies.

On Innovative Search: the use of internal and external sources of innovation among Finnish innovators

This dissertation explores the use of internal and external sources of knowledge in modern innovation processes. It builds on a framework that combines theories such as a behavioural theory of the firm, the evolutionary theory of economic change, and modern approaches to strategic management. It follows the recent increase in innovation research focusing on the firm-level examination of innovative activities instead of traditional industry-level determinants. The innovation process is seen as a problem- and slack- driven search process, which can take several directions in terms of organizational boundaries in the pursuit of new knowledge and other resources. It thus draws on recent models of technological change, according to which firms nowadays should build their innovative activities on both internal and external sources of innovation rather than relying solely on internal resources. Four different research questions are addressed, all of which are empirically investigated via a rich dataset covering Finnish innovators collected by Statistics Finland. Firstly, the study examines how the nature of problems shapes the direction of any search for new knowledge. In general it demonstrates that the nature of the problem does affect the direction of the search, although under resource constraints firms tend to use external rather than internal sources of knowledge. At the same time, it shows that those firms that are constrained in terms of finance seem to search both internally and externally. Secondly, the dissertation investigates the relationships between different kinds of internal and external sources of knowledge in an attempt to find out where firms should direct their search in order to exploit the potential of a distributed innovation process. The concept of complementarities is applied in this context. The third research question concerns how the use of external knowledge sources – openness to external knowledge – influences the financial performance of firms. Given the many advantages of openness presented in the current literature, the focus is on how it shapes profitability. The results reveal a curvilinear relationship between profitability and openness (taking an inverted U-shape), the implication being that it pays to be open up to a certain point, but being too open to external sources may be detrimental to financial performance. Finally, the dissertation addresses some challenges in CISbased innovation research that have received relatively little attention in prior studies. The general aim is to underline the fact that comprehensive understanding of the complex process of technological change requires the constant development of methodological approaches (in terms of data and measures, for example). All the empirical analyses included in the dissertation are based on the Finnish CIS (Finnish Innovation Survey 1998-2000).

System-level characterization of Th2 cell development and immune cell responses to ZnO and TiO2 nanoparticles

Asthma and allergy are common diseases and their prevalence is increasing. One of the hypotheses that explains this trend is exposure to inhalable chemicals such as traffi c-related air pollution. Epidemiological research supports this theory, as a correlation between environmental chemicals and allergic respiratory diseases has been found. In addition to ambient airborne particles, one may be exposed to engineered nanosized materials that are actively produced due to their favorable physico-chemical properties compared to their bulk size counterparts. On the cellular level, improper activity of T helper (Th) cells has been connected to allergic reactions. Th cells can differentiate into functionally different effector subsets, which are identifi ed according to their characteristic cytokine profi les resulting in specifi c ability to communicate with other cells. Th2 cells activate humoral immunity and stimulate eradication of extracellular pathogens. However, persistent predominance of Th2 cells is involved in a development of number of allergic diseases. The cytokine environment at the time of antigen recognition is the major factor determining the polarization of a naïve Th cell. Th2 cell differentiation is initiated by IL4, which signals via transcription factor STAT6. Although the importance of this pathway has been evaluated in the mouse studies, the signaling components involved have been largely unknown. The aim of this thesis was to identify molecules, which are under the control of IL4 and STAT6 in Th cells. This was done by using system-level analysis of STAT6 target genes at genome, mRNA and protein level resulting in identifi cation of various genes previously not connected to Th2 cell phenotype acquisition. In the study, STAT6-mediated primary and secondary target genes were dissection from each other and a detailed transcriptional kinetics of Th2 cell polarization of naïve human CD4+ T cells was collected. Integration of these data revealed the hierarchy of molecular events that mediates the differentiation towards Th2 cell phenotype. In addition, the results highlighted the importance of exploiting proteomics tools to complement the studies on STAT6 target genes identifi ed through transcriptional profi ling. In the last subproject, the effects of the exposure with ZnO and TiO2 nanoparticles was analyzed in Jurkat T cell line and in primary human monocyte-derived macrophages and dendritic cells to evaluate their toxicity and potential to cause infl ammation. Identifi cation of ZnO-derived gene expression showed that the same nanoparticles may elicit markedly distinctive responses in different cell types, thus underscoring the need for unbiased profi ling of target genes and pathways affected. The results gave additional proof that the cellular response to nanosized ZnO is due to leached Zn2+ ions. The approach used in ZnO and TiO2 nanoparticle study demonstrated the value of assessing nanoparticle responses through a toxicogenomics approach. The increased knowledge of Th2 cell signaling will hopefully reveal new therapeutic nodes and eventually improve our possibilities to prevent and tackle allergic infl ammatory diseases.

The good and the successful - Examination of informal learning mechanisms

This thesis strived to find out which informal learning (IL) mechanisms are used the most by the respondents. Additionally, the goal was to know more about the respondents as informal learners and what could explain possible differences. The target was to resolve whether informal learning explains differences in individual performance or, do some other explanations for success exist. Informal learning was to be made more visible, since many are unaware of it. Relevant IL mechanisms that the interviewees could explain were selected for this thesis. The theory on informal learning was presented and some additional informal learning mechanisms were included: Underlying learning theories, internal and external learning resources, as well as some sport related informal learning mechanisms. Various scholars have explained these terms. The final results of this thesis relate to business context, but sport is at the scope of my research. The target group consisted of nine individuals in team sports that were considered as high performers (good/successful). Hence, also the concept of high performance was clarified with competence, expertise and talent literature. The study is qualitative and face-to-face interviews were chosen. The data was analyzed with Grounded Theory principles and theory elaboration. This thesis pointed out similarities and differences between the respondents´ answers (good/successful, inexperienced/experienced). Thus, the analysis clarified that there are different attitudes to learning and different learner profiles in sports context. Also, it became clear that some informal learning mechanisms are more used than others. Secondly, based on the most crucial differences, Typology of Talentum was formulated based on Le Deist & Winteron´s (2005, 39) Typology of holistic competence. Some variables of informal learning seemed to constitute the Meta-competence of Typology that ultimately causes the differences in individual performance and success. The results can be transferred to business context because meta-competence is transferable by nature.

A multimethod examination of contributors to successful on-the-job learning for vocational students

Rapid changes in working life and competence requirements of different professions have increased interest in workplace learning. It is considered an effective way to learn and update professional skills by performing daily tasks in an authentic environment. Especially, ensuring a supply of skilled future workers is a crucial issue for firms facing tight competition and a shortage of competent employees due to the retirement of current professionals. In order to develop and make the most of workplace learning, it is important to focus on workplace learning environments and the individual characteristics of those participating in workplace learning. The literature has suggested various factors that influence adults' and professionals’ workplace learning of profession-related skills, but lacks empirical studies on contextual and individual-related factors that positively affect students' workplace learning. Workers with vocational education form a large group in modern firms. Therefore, elements of vocational students’ successful workplace learning during their studies, before starting their career paths, need to be examined. To fill this gap in the literature, this dissertation examines contributors to vocational students’ workplace learning in Finland, where students’ workplace learning is included in the vocational education and training system. The study is divided into two parts: the introduction, comprised of the overview of the relevant literature and the conclusion of the entire study, and five separate articles. Three of the articles utilize quantitative methods and two use qualitative methods to examine factors that contribute to vocational students’ workplace learning. The results show that, from the students’ perspective, attitudinal, motivational, and organizationrelated factors enhance the student’s development of professionalism during the on-the-job learning period. Specifically, the organization-related factors such as innovative climate, guidance, and interactions with seniors have a strong positive impact on the students’ perceived development of professional skills because, for example, the seniors’ guidance and provision of new viewpoints for the tasks helps the vocational students to gain autonomy at work performance. A multilevel analysis shows that of those factors enhancing workplace learning from the student perspective, innovative climate, knowledge transfer accuracy, and the students’ performance orientation were significantly related to the workplace instructors’ assessment regarding the students’ professional performance. Furthermore, support from senior colleagues and the students’ self-efficacy were both significantly associated with the formal grades measuring how well the students managed to learn necessary professional skills. In addition, the results suggest that the students’ on-the-job learning can be divided into three main phases, of which two require efforts from both the student and the on-the-job learning organization. The first phase includes the student’s application of basic professional skills, demonstration of potential in performing daily tasks, and orientation provided by the organization at the beginning of the on-the-job learning period. In the second phase, the student actively develops profession-related skills by performing daily tasks, thus learning a fluent working style while observing the seniors’ performance. The organization offers relevant tasks and follows the student’s development. The third level indicates a student who has reached the professional level described as a full occupation. The results suggest that constructing the vocational students’ successful on-the-job learning period requires feedback from seniors, opportunities to learn to manage entire work processes, self-efficacy on the part of the students, proactive behavior, and initiative in learning. The study contributes to research on workplace learning in three ways: firstly, it identifies the key individual- and organization-based factors that influence the vocational students’ successful on-the-job learning from their perspective and examines mutual relationships between these factors. Second, the study provides knowledge of how the factors related to the students’ view of successful workplace learning are associated with the workplace instructors’ perspective and the formal grades. Third, the present study finds elements needed to construct a successful on-the-job learning for the students.

An examination of factors influencing ERP key-user satisfaction: A qualitative case study

Several companies are trying to improve their operation efficiency by implementing an enterprise resource planning (ERP) system that makes it possible to control the resources of the company in real time. However, the success of the implementation project is not a foregone conclusion; a significant part of these projects end in a failure, one way or another. Therefore it is important to investigate ERP system implementation more closely in order to increase understanding about factors influencing ERP system success and to improve the probability of a successful ERP implementation project. Consequently, this study was initiated because a manufacturing case company wanted to review the success of their ERP implementation project. To be exact, the case company hoped to gain both information about the success of the project and insight for future implementation improvement. This study investigated ERP success specifically by examining factors that influence ERP key-user satisfaction. User satisfaction is one of the most commonly applied indicators of information system success. The research data was mainly collected by conducting theme interviews. The subjects of the interviews were six key-users of the newly implemented ERP system. The interviewees were closely involved in the implementation project. Furthermore, they act as representative users that utilize the new system in everyday business processes. The collected data was analyzed by thematizing. Both data collection and analysis were guided by a theoretical frame of reference. This frame was based on previous research on the subject. The results of the study aligned with the theoretical framework to large extent. The four principal factors influencing key-user satisfaction were change management, contractor service, key-user’s system knowledge and characteristics of the ERP product itself. One of the most significant contributions of the research is that it confirmed the existence of a connection between change management and ERP key-user satisfaction. Furthermore, it discovered two new sub-factors influencing contractor service related key-user satisfaction. In addition, the research findings indicated that in order to improve the current level of key-user satisfaction, the case company should pay special attention to system functionality improvement and enhancement of the key-users’ knowledge. During similar implementation projects in the future, it would be important to assure the success of change management and contractor service related processes.

Our future in geriatrics : an examination of the knowledge, attitudes and career choices of physical therapy students in Ontario : a pretest-posttest study /

There continues to be a shortage of health professionals interested in providing care for the older adult. Part of the problem seems to stem from the negative perceptions of geriatrics as a clinical speciality. This study examines the knowledge, attitudes and career decisions of physical therapy students in Ontario before and after an educational intervention. Surveys were conducted with 144 physical therapy students from five universities before and after their geriatrics course in order to measure their knowledge, attitudes and interest in working with older adults. The incoming class of physical therapy students (n = 1 86) acted as control subjects for the study. The Revised Palmore Facts On Aging Quiz measured the students' knowledge of aging (Miller & Dodder, 1980). The Revised Tuckman-Lorge (Axelrod & Eisdorfer, 1961) and the Kogan Old People Scales (Kogan, 1961) were used to examine attitude. An environmental scale was developed based on the work of Snape (1986) to measure the impact of the working conditions on the students' career choices. A 10-point Likert-type scale based on the work of Michlelutte & Diseker (1985) was modified and used to measure career interest in working with the elderly. On independent sample t-tests, positive attitudes were related to the demographic characteristic of gender; ethnicity was negatively related; and marital status was found to be unrelated to attitude (fi<.05). Having a relationship with an older adult and taking courses in gerontology were also found to be positively related to attitude (fi<.05). Results on a betweensubjects design which compared students before and after the course found that knowledge scores improved from pretest to posttest (fi<.05). In general, attitude scores improved from T1 to T2 on both measurement tools (b<.05). The environmental and vocational interest scales yielded statistically significant differences between the control and experimental groups during the intervention period (p<.05). The results of this research indicated that knowledge and attitudes improve after an educational intervention; however, there was little impact on the students' overall career decisions. Further research is indicated to examine the complex relationship between attitude and behaviour and its impact on students' career choices. In addition, the impact of geriatric clinical environment on students' attitudes and career decisions needs to be further explored.

The examination of predictors of success in two programmes requiring self-direction /

The new Physiotherapy and Occupational Therapy programmes, based in the Faculty of Health Sciences, McMaster University (Hamilton, Ontario) are unique. The teaching and learning philosophies utilized are based on learner-centred and selfdirected learning theories. The 1991 admissions process of these programmes attempted to select individuals who would make highly qualified professionals and who would have the necessary skills to complete such unique programmes. In order to: 1 . learn more about the concept of self-directed learning and its related characteristics in health care professionals; 2. examine the relationship between various student characteristics - personal, learner and those assessed during the admissions process - and final course grades, and 3. determine which, if any, smdent characteristics could be considered predictors for success in learner-centred programmes requiring self-directed learning skills, a correlational research design was developed and carried out. Thirty Occupational Therapy and thirty Physiotherapy smdents were asked to complete 2 instruments - a questionnaire developed by the author and the Oddi Continuing Learning Inventory (Oddi, 1986). Course grades and ratings of students during the admissions process were also obtained. Both questionnaires were examined for reliability, and factor analyses were conducted to determine construct validity. Data obtained from the questionnaires, course grades and student ratings (from the admissions process) were analyzed and compared using the Contingency Co-efficient, the Pearson's product-moment correlation co-efficient, and the multiple regression analysis model. The research findings demonstrated a positive relationship (as identified by Contingency Coefficient or Pearson r values) between various course grades and the following personal and learner characteristics: field of smdy of highest level of education achieved, level of education achieved, sex, marital stams, motivation for completing the programmes, reasons for eru-oling in the programmes, decision to enrol in the programmes, employment history, preferred learning style, strong selfconcept and the identification of various components of the concept of self-directed learning. In most cases, the relationships were significant to the 0.01 or 0.(X)1 levels. Results of the multiple regression analyses demonstrated that several learner and admissions characteristic variables had R^ values that accounted for the largest proportion of the variance in several dependent variables. Thus, these variables could be considered predictors for success. The learner characteristics included: level of education and strong self-concept. The admissions characteristics included: ability to evaluate strengths, ability to give feedback, curiosity and creativity, and communication skills. It is recommended that research continue to be conducted to substantiate the relationships found between course grades and characteristic variables in more diverse populations. "Success in self-directed programmes" from the learner's perspective should also be investigated. The Oddi Continuing Learning Inventory should continue to be researched. Further research may lead to refinement or further development of the instrument, and may provide further insight into self-directed learner attributes. The concept of self-directed learning continues to be incorporated into educational programmes, and thus should continue to be explored.

An electrophysiological examination of intentional and inadvertent sleep onset : the effect of intention on the sleep onset process

The main purpose ofthis study was to examine the effect ofintention on the sleep onset process from an electrophysiological point ofview. To test this, two nap conditions, the Multiple Sleep Latency Test (MSLT) and the Repeated Test of Sustained Wakefulness (RTSW) were used to compare intentional and inadvertent sleep onset. Sixteen female participants (aged 19-25) spent two non-consecutive nights in the sleep lab; however, due to physical and technical difficulties only 8 participants produced compete sets of data for analysis. Each night participants were given six nap opportunities. For three ofthese naps they were instructed to fall asleep (MSLT), for the remaining three naps they were to attempt to remain awake (RTSW). These two types of nap opportunities represented the conditions ofintentional (MSLT) and inadvertent (RTSW) sleep onset. Several other sleepiness, performance, arousal and questionnaire measures were obtained to evaluate and/or control for demand characteristics, subjective effort and mental activity during the nap tests. The nap opportunities were scored using a new 9 stage scoring system developed by Hori et al. (1994). Power spectral analyses (FFT) were also performed on the sleep onset data provided by the two nap conditions. Longer sleep onset latencies (approximately 1.25 minutes) were obseIVed in the RTSW than the MSLT. A higher incidence of structured mental activity was reported in the RTSW and may have been reflected in higher Beta power during the RTSW. The decent into sleep was more ragged in the RTSW as evidenced by an increased number shifts towards higher arousal as measured using the Hori 9 stage sleep scoring method. 1ll The sleep onset process also appears to be altered by the intention to remain awake, at least until the point ofinitial Stage 2 sleep (i.e. the first appearance of spindle activity). When only examining the final 4.3 minutes ofthe sleep onset process (ending with spindle activity), there were significant interactions between the type ofnap and the time until sleep onset for Theta, Alpha and Beta power. That is to say, the pattern of spectral power measurements in these bands differed across time as a function ofthe type ofnap. The effect ofintention however, was quite small (,,2 < .04) when compared to the variance which could be accounted for by the passage oftime (,,2 == .10 to .59). These data indicate that intention alone cannot greatly extend voluntary wakefulness if a person is sleepy. This has serious implications for people who may be required to perform dangerous tasks while sleepy, particularly for people who are in a situation that does not allow them the opportunity to engage in behavioural strategies in order to maintain their arousal.

An examination of grade three mathematics textbooks for problem solving strategies

Three grade three mathematics textbooks were selected arbitrarily (every other) from a total of six currently used in the schools of Ontario. These textbooks were examined through content analysis in order to determine the extent (i. e., the frequency of occurrence) to which problem solving strategies appear in the problems and exercises of grade three mathematics textbooks, and how well they carry through the Ministry's educational goals set out in The Formative Years. Based on Polya's heuristic model, a checklist was developed by the researcher. The checklist had two main categories, textbook problems and process problems and a finer classification according to the difficulty level of a textbook problem; also six commonly used problem solving strategies for the analysis of a process problem. Topics to be analyzed were selected from the subject guideline The Formative Years, and the same topics were selected from each textbook. Frequencies of analyzed problems and exercises were compiled and tabulated textbook by textbook and topic by topic. In making comparisons, simple frequency count and percentage were used in the absence of any known criteria available for judging highor low frequency. Each textbook was coded by three coders trained to use the checklist. The results of analysis showed that while there were large numbers of exercises in each textbook, not very many were framed as problems according to Polya' s model and that process problems form a small fraction of the number of analyzed problems and exercises. There was no pattern observed as to the systematic placement of problems in the textbooks.

An examination of the effects of locus of control on perceptions of core job dimensions and job satisfaction

This study examined the moderating effects of locus of control on core job dimensions (skill variety, task identity, task significance, autonomy, feedback) and job satisfaction. Survey data were collected from 1995 educators in Southern Ontario. When core job dimensions were perceived to be high, job satisfaction scores were high. The converse relationship was also true; when core job dimensions were perceived to be low, job satisfaction scores were also low. As well, the investigation explored the effect of educators' locus of control of reinforcement on the relationship between core job dimensions and job satisfaction. Internals (N = 483-486) perceived more skill variety, more task identity, more task significance, more autonomy, more feedback and greater job satisfaction than externals (N = 626-629). However, contrary to expectation, the correlations between specific core job dimensions namely autonomy and feedback, were not systematically greater for internals compared to externals. In addition the findings reported here suggest some appropriate directions and strategies for measuring and increasing job satisfaction among teachers.

Interdependence in Southern Africa: an examination of the relations between Zimbabwe and South Africa

Most research on southern Africa focuses on the total dependency of the region's states--Angola, Botswana, Lesotho, Malawi, Mozambique, Swaziland, zambia and Zimbabwe--upon the dominant power, South Africa. This thesis examines the relationship between South Africa and Zimbabwe and argues that these two states are more interdependent than dependency scholars would acknowledge. Although a study of the historical period reveals that dependency theory, as defined by Raul Prebisch, Andre Gunder Frank and A. Valenzuela, is helpful for understanding the development of relations between the two states, it is unable to account for many of the characteristics of the relationship which are found in the contemporary context, especially since 1980. An examination of various economic areas of interaction, including investment, trade and transportation, as well as the political realm, indicates that each state exhibits a degree of dependence upon the other. Thus, it is possible to characterize the relationship as one of "mutual dependence," or interdependence as defined by Robert Keohane and Joseph S. Nye. Interdependence is further examined through the concepts of sensitivity and vulnerability. Sensitivity signifies the ability of a state to respond effectively to policy changes made by another state wi thin a given area of interaction without incurring large costs, while vulnerability denotes that an actor is unable to respond, or only at great cost. By applying these concepts to the relationship between Zimbabwe and South Africa, it is determined that although South Africa tends to be sensitive while Zimbabwe is generally vulnerable, the degrees to which these two states are sensi ti ve and vulnerable varies over time and issue area. As the changes wi thin South Africa start to affect relations wi th the rest of southern Africa, it wi 11 be necessary to understand the interaction between the states from an interdependency perspective if cooperation within the region wi 11 be successful. By appl ying an interdependence framework, this study aims at contributing to the understanding of relations among the countries of southern Africa in general, and between South Africa and Zimbabwe in particular.

The examination of assumptions in clinical nursing practice

This was a study designed to identify and explore the assumptions that Registered Nurses have about their current nursing role and practice. A qualitative case study approach was used to gather descriptive data. Thirteen study participants completed the indicators of critical thinking exercise and participated in a group session in which they identified positive and negative critical incidents in their clinical practice. The analysis of the anecdotes that were generated from the critical incident exercises revealed ten assumptions held by the Registered Nurses about their nursing practice. The ten assumptions were reflected back to the study participants to determine their level of agreement with each assumption. The ten assumptions were supported by the majority of the respondents. The Registered Nurses in this study appraised themselves affirmatively on eight out of nine indicators of critical thinking.

An appeal to the people ; being a review of the late correspondence and documents, relating to the rejection of the British Minister : including an examination of the "arrangement" of April last /

Introduction "To the people of the United States" signed Wm. Coleman.

An examination of transcriptional and translational regulation of the 70kDa heat shock proteins following amputation of the tail and forelimb in the newt Notophthalmus viridescens

Several stresses to tissues including hyperthermia, ischemia, mechanical trauma and heavy metals have been demonstrated to affect the regulation of a subset of the family of heat shock proteins of70kOa (hsp70). In several organisms following some of these traumas, the levels of hsp70 mRNA and proteins are dramatically upregulated. However, the effects of the stress on limb and tail amputation in the newt Notophthalmus viridescens, involving mechanical tissue damage, have not adequately been examined. In the present study, three techniques were utilized to quantitate the levels of hsp70 mRNA and protein in the tissues of the forelimbs and tails of newts during the early post-traumatic events following surgical resection of these:: appendages. These included quantitative Western blotting of proteins separated by both one and twodimensional SDS-polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis and quantitative Northern blot analysis of total RNA. In tissues of both the limb and tail one hour after amputation, there were no significant differences in the levels of hsp70 protein measured by one-dimensional SOSPAGE followed by Western blotting, when compared to the levels measured in the unamputated limb. A 30 minute heat shock at 35°C failed to elicit an increase in the levels of hsp70 protein in these tissues. Further analysis using the more sensitive 20 PAGE separation of stump tissue proteins revealed that at least some of the five hsp70 isoforms of the newt may be differentially regulated in limbs and tails in response to trauma. It appears also that amputation of the tail and limb tissues leads to slight 3 elevation in the levels of HSP70 mRNA when compared to those of their respective unstressed tissues.