Applying machine learning methods to avalanche forecasting

Avalanche forecasting is a complex process involving the assimilation of multiple data sources to make predictions over varying spatial and temporal resolutions. Numerically assisted forecasting often uses nearest neighbour methods (NN), which are known to have limitations when dealing with high dimensional data. We apply Support Vector Machines to a dataset from Lochaber, Scotland to assess their applicability in avalanche forecasting. Support Vector Machines (SVMs) belong to a family of theoretically based techniques from machine learning and are designed to deal with high dimensional data. Initial experiments showed that SVMs gave results which were comparable with NN for categorical and probabilistic forecasts. Experiments utilising the ability of SVMs to deal with high dimensionality in producing a spatial forecast show promise, but require further work.

An active contour-based atlas registration model applied to automatic subthalamic nucleus targeting on MRI: method and validation.

This paper presents a new non parametric atlas registration framework, derived from the optical flow model and the active contour theory, applied to automatic subthalamic nucleus (STN) targeting in deep brain stimulation (DBS) surgery. In a previous work, we demonstrated that the STN position can be predicted based on the position of surrounding visible structures, namely the lateral and third ventricles. A STN targeting process can thus be obtained by registering these structures of interest between a brain atlas and the patient image. Here we aim to improve the results of the state of the art targeting methods and at the same time to reduce the computational time. Our simultaneous segmentation and registration model shows mean STN localization errors statistically similar to the most performing registration algorithms tested so far and to the targeting expert's variability. Moreover, the computational time of our registration method is much lower, which is a worthwhile improvement from a clinical point of view.

Automatic Tracer-Dilution Method Used for Stage-Discharge Ratings and Streamflow Hydrographs on Small Iowa Streams, HR-285, 1990

An automatic system was designed to concurrently measure stage and discharge for the purpose of developing stage-discharge ratings and high flow hydrographs on small streams. Stage, or gage height, is recorded by an analog-to-digital recorder and discharge is determined by the constant-rate tracer-dilution method. The system measures flow above a base stage set by the user. To test the effectiveness of the system and its components, eight systems, with a variety of equipment, were installed at crest-stage gaging stations across Iowa. A fluorescent dye, rhodamine-WT, was used as the tracer. Tracer-dilution discharge measurements were made during 14 flow periods at six stations from 1986 through 1988 water years. Ratings were developed at three stations with the aid of these measurements. A loop rating was identified at one station during rapidly-changing flow conditions. Incomplete mixing and dye loss to sediment apparently were problems at some stations. Stage hydrographs were recorded for 38 flows at seven stations. Limited data on background fluorescence during high flows were also obtained.

Development of an Expert System for Forecasting Frost on Bridges and Roadways in Iowa, HR-305, 1991

An expert system has been developed that provides 24 hour forecasts of roadway and bridge frost for locations in Iowa. The system is based on analysis of frost observations taken by highway maintenance personnel, analysis of conditions leading to frost as obtained from meteorologists with experience in forecasting bridge and roadway frost, and from fundamental physical principles of frost processes. The expert system requires the forecaster to enter information on recent maximum and minimum temperatures and forecasts of maximum and minimum air temperatures, dew point temperatures, precipitation, cloudiness, and wind speed. The system has been used operationally for the last two frost seasons by Freese-Notis Associates, who have been under contract with the Iowa DOT to supply frost forecasts. The operational meteorologists give the system their strong endorsement. They always consult the system before making a frost forecast unless conditions clearly indicate frost is not likely. In operational use, the system is run several times with different input values to test the sensitivity of frost formation on a particular day to various meteorological parameters. The users comment. that the system helps them to consider all the factors relevant to frost formation and is regarded as an office companion for making frost forecasts.

Development and Implementation of an Expert System for Forecasting Fog on US Highway 30 in Cedar Rapids, Iowa, HR-357, 1996

Several accidents, some involving fatalities, have occurred on U.S. Highway 30 near the Archer Daniels Midland Company (ADM) Corn Sweeteners plant in Cedar Rapids, Iowa. A contributing factor to many of these accidents has been the large amounts of water (vapor and liquid) emitted from multiple sources at ADM's facility located along the south side of the highway. Weather and road closure data acquired from IDOT have been used to develop a database of meteorological conditions preceding and accompanying closure of Highway 30 in Cedar Rapids. An expert system and a FORTRAN program were developed as aids in decision making with regard to closure of Highway 30 near the plant. The computer programs were used for testing, evaluation, and final deployment. Reports indicate the decision tools have been successfully implemented and were judged to be helpful in forecasting road closures and in reducing costs and personnel time in monitoring the roadway.

Automatic prostate segmentation in cone-beam computed tomography images using rigid registration.

We propose to evaluate automatic three-dimensional gray-value rigid registration (RR) methods for prostate localization on cone-beam computed tomography (CBCT) scans. In total, 103 CBCT scans of 9 prostate patients have been analyzed. Each one was registered to the planning CT scan using different methods: (a) global RR, (b) pelvis bone structure RR, (c) bone RR refined by local soft-tissue RR using the CT clinical target volume (CTV) expanded with a 1, 3, 5, 8, 10, 12, 15 or 20-mm margin. To evaluate results, a radiation oncologist was asked to manually delineate the CTV on the CBCT scans. The Dice coefficients between each automatic CBCT segmentation - derived from the transformation of the manual CT segmentation - and the manual CBCT segmentation were calculated. Global or bone CT/CBCT RR has been shown to yield insufficient results in average. Local RR with an 8-mm margin around the CTV after bone RR was found to be the best candidate for systematically significantly improving prostate localization.

Pilot Project for a Hybrid Road-Flooding Forecasting System on Squaw Creek, TR-642

A network of 25 sonic stage sensors were deployed in the Squaw Creek basin upstream from Ames Iowa to determine if the state-of-the-art distributed hydrological model CUENCAS can produce reliable information for all road crossings including those that cross small creeks draining basins as small as 1 sq. mile. A hydraulic model was implemented for the major tributaries of the Squaw Creek where IFC sonic instruments were deployed and it was coupled to CUENCAS to validate the predictions made at small tributaries in the basin. This study demonstrates that the predictions made by the hydrological model at internal locations in the basins are as accurate as the predictions made at the outlet of the basin. Final rating curves based on surveyed cross sections were developed for the 22 IFC-bridge sites that are currently operating, and routine forecast is provided at those locations (see IFIS). Rating curves were developed for 60 additional bridge locations in the basin, however, we do not use those rating curves for routine forecast because the lack of accuracy of LiDAR derived cross sections is not optimal. The results of our work form the basis for two papers that have been submitted for publication to the Journal of Hydrological Engineering. Peer review of our work will gives a strong footing to our ability to expand our results from the pilot Squaw Creek basin to all basins in Iowa.

Automatic filtering and substantiation of drug safety signals

Drug safety issues pose serious health threats to the population and constitute a major cause of mortality worldwide. Due to the prominent implications to both public health and the pharmaceutical industry, it is of great importance to unravel the molecular mechanisms by which an adverse drug reaction can be potentially elicited. These mechanisms can be investigated by placing the pharmaco-epidemiologically detected adverse drug reaction in an information-rich context and by exploiting all currently available biomedical knowledge to substantiate it. We present a computational framework for the biological annotation of potential adverse drug reactions. First, the proposed framework investigates previous evidences on the drug-event association in the context of biomedical literature (signal filtering). Then, it seeks to provide a biological explanation (signal substantiation) by exploring mechanistic connections that might explain why a drug produces a specific adverse reaction. The mechanistic connections include the activity of the drug, related compounds and drug metabolites on protein targets, the association of protein targets to clinical events, and the annotation of proteins (both protein targets and proteins associated with clinical events) to biological pathways. Hence, the workflows for signal filtering and substantiation integrate modules for literature and database mining, in silico drug-target profiling, and analyses based on gene-disease networks and biological pathways. Application examples of these workflows carried out on selected cases of drug safety signals are discussed. The methodology and workflows presented offer a novel approach to explore the molecular mechanisms underlying adverse drug reactions

On the Selection of Non-Invasive Methods Based on Speech Analysis Oriented to Automatic Alzheimer Disease Diagnosis

The work presented here is part of a larger study to identify novel technologies and biomarkers for early Alzheimer disease (AD) detection and it focuses on evaluating the suitability of a new approach for early AD diagnosis by non-invasive methods. The purpose is to examine in a pilot study the potential of applying intelligent algorithms to speech features obtained from suspected patients in order to contribute to the improvement of diagnosis of AD and its degree of severity. In this sense, Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) have been used for the automatic classification of the two classes (AD and control subjects). Two human issues have been analyzed for feature selection: Spontaneous Speech and Emotional Response. Not only linear features but also non-linear ones, such as Fractal Dimension, have been explored. The approach is non invasive, low cost and without any side effects. Obtained experimental results were very satisfactory and promising for early diagnosis and classification of AD patients.

On Automatic Diagnosis of Alzheimer's Disease based on Spontaneous Speech Analysis and Emotional Temperature

Alzheimer's disease is the most prevalent form of progressive degenerative dementia; it has a high socio-economic impact in Western countries. Therefore it is one of the most active research areas today. Alzheimer's is sometimes diagnosed by excluding other dementias, and definitive confirmation is only obtained through a post-mortem study of the brain tissue of the patient. The work presented here is part of a larger study that aims to identify novel technologies and biomarkers for early Alzheimer's disease detection, and it focuses on evaluating the suitability of a new approach for early diagnosis of Alzheimer’s disease by non-invasive methods. The purpose is to examine, in a pilot study, the potential of applying Machine Learning algorithms to speech features obtained from suspected Alzheimer sufferers in order help diagnose this disease and determine its degree of severity. Two human capabilities relevant in communication have been analyzed for feature selection: Spontaneous Speech and Emotional Response. The experimental results obtained were very satisfactory and promising for the early diagnosis and classification of Alzheimer’s disease patients.

Improving a leaves automatic recognition process using PCA

In this work we present a simulation of a recognition process with perimeter characterization of a simple plant leaves as a unique discriminating parameter. Data coding allowing for independence of leaves size and orientation may penalize performance recognition for some varieties. Border description sequences are then used, and Principal Component Analysis (PCA) is applied in order to study which is the best number of components for the classification task, implemented by means of a Support Vector Machine (SVM) System. Obtained results are satisfactory, and compared with [4] our system improves the recognition success, diminishing the variance at the same time.

Automatic Recognition of Leaves by Shape Detection Pre-Processing with Ica

In this work we present a simulation of a recognition process with perimeter characterization of a simple plant leaves as a unique discriminating parameter. Data coding allowing for independence of leaves size and orientation may penalize performance recognition for some varieties. Border description sequences are then used to characterize the leaves. Independent Component Analysis (ICA) is then applied in order to study which is the best number of components to be considered for the classification task, implemented by means of an Artificial Neural Network (ANN). Obtained results with ICA as a pre-processing tool are satisfactory, and compared with some references our system improves the recognition success up to 80.8% depending on the number of considered independent components.

Alzheimer disease diagnosis based on automatic spontaneous speech analysis

Alzheimer’s disease (AD) is the most prevalent form of progressive degenerative dementia and it has a high socio-economic impact in Western countries, therefore is one of the most active research areas today. Its diagnosis is sometimes made by excluding other dementias, and definitive confirmation must be done trough a post-mortem study of the brain tissue of the patient. The purpose of this paper is to contribute to im-provement of early diagnosis of AD and its degree of severity, from an automatic analysis performed by non-invasive intelligent methods. The methods selected in this case are Automatic Spontaneous Speech Analysis (ASSA) and Emotional Temperature (ET), that have the great advantage of being non invasive, low cost and without any side effects.

Plagiarism meets paraphrasing: insights for the new generation in automatic plagiarism detection

Although paraphrasing is the linguistic mechanism underlying many plagiarism cases, little attention has been paid to its analysis in the framework of automatic plagiarism detection. Therefore, state-of-the-art plagiarism detectors find it difficult to detect cases of paraphrase plagiarism. In this article, we analyse the relationship between paraphrasing and plagiarism, paying special attention to which paraphrase phenomena underlie acts of plagiarism and which of them are detected by plagiarism detection systems. With this aim in mind, we created the P4P corpus, a new resource which uses a paraphrase typology to annotate a subset of the PAN-PC-10 corpus for automatic plagiarism detection. The results of the Second International Competition on Plagiarism Detection were analysed in the light of this annotation. The presented experiments show that (i) more complex paraphrase phenomena and a high density of paraphrase mechanisms make plagiarism detection more difficult, (ii) lexical substitutions are the paraphrase mechanisms used the most when plagiarising, and (iii) paraphrase mechanisms tend to shorten the plagiarized text. For the first time, the paraphrase mechanisms behind plagiarism have been analysed, providing critical insights for the improvement of automatic plagiarism detection systems.