Growth response to climate and drought change along an aridity gradient in the southernmost Pinus nigra relict forests

Tree populations at the rear edge of species distribution are sensitive to climate stress and drought. However, growth responses of these tree populations to those stressors may vary along climatic gradients. To analyze growth responses to climate and drought using dendrochronology in rear-edge Pinus nigra populations located along an aridity gradient. Tree-ring width chronologies were built for the twentieth century and related to monthly climatic variables, a drought index (Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index), and two atmospheric circulation patterns (North Atlantic and Western Mediterranean Oscillations). Growth was enhanced by wet and cold previous autumns and warm late winters before tree-ring formation. The influence of the previous year conditions on growth increased during the past century. Growth was significantly related to North Atlantic and Western Mediterranean Oscillations in two out of five sites. The strongest responses of growth to the drought index were observed in the most xeric sites. Dry conditions before tree-ring formation constrain growth in rear-edge P. nigra populations. The comparisons of climate-growth responses along aridity gradients allow characterizing the sensitivity of relict stands to climate warming.

Current and future variations of nutrient depositions and influences on tree growth

Current nutrient deposition shows episodic variations which likely may impact the local nutrient cycle at the RBSF. Comparing analyses of deposition data during present-day atmospheric circulation and phases of high biomass burning in the Amazon, characteristic relationships between remote emissions and local deposition are determined. By using projections drawn from the special report on emission scenarios (SRES) in combination with a trajectory modeling tool, future nutrient deposition conditions of the mountain ecosystem are assessed. Observations of relations between climatic variables, current time series of nutrient deposition, and tree growth point to an impact of the remote fertilization effect of atmospheric matters, emitted primarily by human activities like biomass burning and agricultural and industrial sources. The increasing emissions in the future may have adverse effects on the ecosystem in the long run.

Middle and Late Pleistocene humid periods recorded in palaeolake deposits of the Nafud desert, Saudi Arabia

Present climate in the Nafud desert of northern Saudi Arabia is hyper-arid and moisture brought by north-westerly winds scarcely reaches the region. The existence of abundant palaeolake sediments provides evidence for a considerably wetter climate in the past. However, the existing chronological framework of these deposits is solely based on radiocarbon dating of questionable reliability, due to potential post-depositional contamination with younger 14C. By using luminescence dating, we show that the lake deposits were not formed between 40 and 20 ka as suggested previously, but approximately ca 410 ka, 320 ka, 200 ka, 125 ka, and 100 ka ago. All of these humid phases are in good agreement with those recorded in lake sediments and speleothems from southern Arabia. Surprisingly, no Holocene lake deposits were identified. Geological characteristics of the deposits and diatom analysis suggest that a single, perennial lake covered the entire south-western Nafud ca 320 ka ago. In contrast, lakes of the 200 ka, 125 ka, and 100 ka humid intervals were smaller and restricted to interdune depressions of a pre-existing dune relief. The concurrent occurrence of humid phases in the Nafud, southern Arabia and the eastern Mediterranean suggests that moisture in northern Arabia originated either from the Mediterranean due to more frequent frontal depression systems or from stronger Indian monsoon circulation, respectively. However, based on previously published climate model simulations and palaecolimate evidence from central Arabia and the Negev desert, we argue that humid climate conditions in the Nafud were probably caused by a stronger African monsoon and a distinct change in zonal atmospheric circulation.

Solar forcing of North Atlantic surface temperature and salinity over the past millennium

There were several centennial-scale fluctuations in the climate and oceanography of the North Atlantic region over the past 1,000 years, including a period of relative cooling from about AD 1450 to 1850 known as the Little Ice Age1. These variations may be linked to changes in solar irradiance, amplified through feedbacks including the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation2. Changes in the return limb of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation are reflected in water properties at the base of the mixed layer south of Iceland. Here we reconstruct thermocline temperature and salinity in this region from AD 818 to 1780 using paired δ18O and Mg/Ca ratio measurements of foraminifer shells from a subdecadally resolved marine sediment core. The reconstructed centennial-scale variations in hydrography correlate with variability in total solar irradiance. We find a similar correlation in a simulation of climate over the past 1,000 years. We infer that the hydrographic changes probably reflect variability in the strength of the subpolar gyre associated with changes in atmospheric circulation. Specifically, in the simulation, low solar irradiance promotes the development of frequent and persistent atmospheric blocking events, in which a quasi-stationary high-pressure system in the eastern North Atlantic modifies the flow of the westerly winds. We conclude that this process could have contributed to the consecutive cold winters documented in Europe during the Little Ice Age.

West Antarctic Ice Streams

Solar heat is the acknowledged driving force for climatic change. However, ice sheets are also capable of causing climatic change. This property of ice sheets derives from the facts that ice and rock are crystalline whereas the oceans and atmosphere are fluids and that ice sheets are massive enough to depress the earth's crust well below sea level. These features allow time constants for glacial flow and isostatic compensation to be much larger than those for ocean and atmospheric circulation and therefore somewhat independent of the solar variations that control this circulation. This review examines the nature of dynamic processes in ice streams that give ice sheets their degree of independent behavior and emphasizes the consequences of viscoplastic instability inherent in anisotropic polycrystalline solids such as glacial ice. Viscoplastic instability and subglacial topography are responsible for the formation of ice streams near ice sheet margins grounded below sea level. As a result the West Antarctic marine ice sheet is inherently unstable and can be rapidly carved away by calving bays which migrate up surging ice streams. Analyses of tidal flexure along floating ice stream margins, stress and velocity fields in ice streams, and ice stream boundary conditions are presented and used to interpret ERTS 1 photomosaics for West Antarctica in terms of characteristic ice sheet crevasse patterns that can be used to monitor ice stream surges and to study calving bay dynamics.

El Nino Suppresses Aantarctic Warming

Here we present new isotope records derived from snow samples from the McMurdo Dry Valleys, Antarctica and re-analysis data of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ERA-40) to explain the connection between the warming of the Pacific sector of the Southern Ocean [Jacka and Budd, 1998; Jacobs et al., 2002] and the current cooling of the terrestrial Ross Sea region [Doran et al., 2002a]. Our analysis confirms previous findings that the warming is linked to the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) [Kwok and Comiso, 2002a, 2002b; Carleton, 2003; Ribera and Mann, 2003; Turner, 2004], and provides new evidence that the terrestrial cooling is caused by a simultaneous ENSO driven change in atmospheric circulation, sourced in the Amundsen Sea and West Antarctica.

An Ice-Core Proxy for Antarctic Circumpolar Zonal Wind Intensity

Using US National Centers for Environmental Prediction/US National Center for Atmospheric Research re-analysis data, we investigate the relationships between crustal ion (nssCa(2+)) concentrations from three West Antarctic ice cores, namely, Siple Dome (SD), ITASE00-1 (IT001) and ITASE01-5 (IT015), and primary components of the climate system, namely, air pressure/geopotential height, zonal (u) and meridional (v) wind strength. Linear correlation analyses between nssCa(2+) concentrations and both air-pressure and wind fields for the period of overlap between records indicate that the SD nssCa(2+) variation is positively correlated with spring circumpolar zonal wind, while IT001 nssCa(2+) has a positive correlation with circumpolar zonal wind throughout the year (r > 0.3, p < 0.01). Intensified Southern Westerlies circulation is conducive to transport of more crustal aerosols to both sites. Further correlation analyses between nssCa(2+) concentrations from SD and IT001 and atmospheric circulation suggest that the high inland plateau (represented by core IT001) is largely influenced by transport from the upper troposphere. IT015 nssCa(2+) is negatively correlated with westerly wind in October and November, suggesting that stronger westerly circulation may weaken the transport of crustal species to IT015. Correlations of nssCa(2+) from the three ice cores with the Antarctic Oscillation index are consistent with results developed from the wind-field investigation. In addition, calibration between nssCa(2+) concentration and the multivariate El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) index shows that crustal species transport to IT001 is enhanced during strong ENSO events.

Solar Forcing of the Polar Atmosphere

We present highly resolved, annually dated, calibrated proxies for atmospheric circulation from several Antarctic ice cores (ITASE (International Trans-Antarctic Scientific Expedition), Siple Dome, Law Dome) that reveal decadal-scale associations with a South Pole ice-core Be-10 proxy for solar variability over the last 600 years and annual-scale associations with solar variability since AD 1720. We show that increased (decreased) solar irradiance is associated with increased (decreased) zonal wind strength near the edge of the Antarctic polar vortex. The association is particularly strong in the Indian and Pacific Oceans and as such may contribute to understanding climate forcing that controls drought in Australia and other Southern Hemisphere climate events. We also include evidence suggestive of solar forcing of atmospheric circulation near the edge of the Arctic polar vortex based on ice-core records from Mount Logan, Yukon Territory, Canada, and both central and south Greenland as enticement for future investigations. Our identification of solar forcing of the polar atmosphere and its impact on lower latitudes offers a mechanism for better understanding modern climate variability and potentially the initiation of abrupt climate-change events that operate on decadal and faster scales.

State of the Antarctic and Southern Ocean Climate System

This paper reviews developments in our understanding of the state of the Antarctic and Southern Ocean climate and its relation to the global climate system over the last few millennia. Climate over this and earlier periods has not been stable, as evidenced by the occurrence of abrupt changes in atmospheric circulation and temperature recorded in Antarctic ice core proxies for past climate. Two of the most prominent abrupt climate change events are characterized by intensification of the circumpolar westerlies (also known as the Southern Annular Mode) between similar to 6000 and 5000 years ago and since 1200-1000 years ago. Following the last of these is a period of major trans-Antarctic reorganization of atmospheric circulation and temperature between A. D. 1700 and 1850. The two earlier Antarctic abrupt climate change events appear linked to but predate by several centuries even more abrupt climate change in the North Atlantic, and the end of the more recent event is coincident with reorganization of atmospheric circulation in the North Pacific. Improved understanding of such events and of the associations between abrupt climate change events recorded in both hemispheres is critical to predicting the impact and timing of future abrupt climate change events potentially forced by anthropogenic changes in greenhouse gases and aerosols. Special attention is given to the climate of the past 200 years, which was recorded by a network of recently available shallow firn cores, and to that of the past 50 years, which was monitored by the continuous instrumental record. Significant regional climate changes have taken place in the Antarctic during the past 50 years. Atmospheric temperatures have increased markedly over the Antarctic Peninsula, linked to nearby ocean warming and intensification of the circumpolar westerlies. Glaciers are retreating on the peninsula, in Patagonia, on the sub-Antarctic islands, and in West Antarctica adjacent to the peninsula. The penetration of marine air masses has become more pronounced over parts of West Antarctica. Above the surface, the Antarctic troposphere has warmed during winter while the stratosphere has cooled year-round. The upper kilometer of the circumpolar Southern Ocean has warmed, Antarctic Bottom Water across a wide sector off East Antarctica has freshened, and the densest bottom water in the Weddell Sea has warmed. In contrast to these regional climate changes, over most of Antarctica, near-surface temperature and snowfall have not increased significantly during at least the past 50 years, and proxy data suggest that the atmospheric circulation over the interior has remained in a similar state for at least the past 200 years. Furthermore, the total sea ice cover around Antarctica has exhibited no significant overall change since reliable satellite monitoring began in the late 1970s, despite large but compensating regional changes. The inhomogeneity of Antarctic climate in space and time implies that recent Antarctic climate changes are due on the one hand to a combination of strong multidecadal variability and anthropogenic effects and, as demonstrated by the paleoclimate record, on the other hand to multidecadal to millennial scale and longer natural variability forced through changes in orbital insolation, greenhouse gases, solar variability, ice dynamics, and aerosols. Model projections suggest that over the 21st century the Antarctic interior will warm by 3.4 degrees +/- 1 degrees C, and sea ice extent will decrease by similar to 30%. Ice sheet models are not yet adequate enough to answer pressing questins about the effect of projected warming on mass balance and sea level. Considering the potentially major impacts of a warming climate on Antarctica, vigorous efforts are needed to better understand all aspects of the highly coupled Antarctic climate system as well as its influence on the Earth's climate and oceans.

A 700 Year Record of Southern Hemisphere Extratropical Climate Variability

Annually dated ice cores from West and East Antarctica provide proxies for past changes in atmospheric circulation over Antarctica and portions of the Southern Ocean, temperature in coastal West and East Antarctica, and the frequency of South Polar penetration of El Nino events. During the period (AD) 1700-1850, atmospheric circulation over the Antarctic and at least portions of the Southern Hemisphere underwent a mode switch departing from the out-of-phase alternation of multi-decadal long phases of EOF1 and EOF2 modes of the 850 hPa field over the Southern Hemisphere (as defined in the recent record by Thompson and Wallace, 2000; Thompson and Solomon, 2002) that characterizes the remainder of the 700 year long record. From (AD) 1700 to 1850, lower-tropospheric circulation was replaced by in-phase behavior of the Amundsen Sea Low component of EOF2 and the East Antarctic High component of EOF1. During the first phase of the mode switch, both West and East Antarctic temperatures declined, potentially in response to the increased extent of sea ice surrounding both regions. At the end of the mode switch, West Antarctic coastal temperatures rose and East Antarctic coastal temperatures fell, respectively, to their second highest and lowest of the record. Polar penetration of El Nino events increased during the mode switch. The onset of the AD 1700-1850 mode switch coincides with the extreme state of the Maunder Minimum in solar variability. Late 20th-century West Antarctic coastal temperatures are the highest in the record period, and East Antarctic coastal temperatures close to the lowest. Since AD 1700, extratropical regions of the Southern Hemisphere have experienced significant climate variability coincident with changes in both solar variability and greenhouse gases.

Antarctic Temperatures Over the Past Two Centuries from Ice Cores

We present a reconstruction of Antarctic mean surface temperatures over the past two centuries based on water stable isotope records from high-resolution, precisely dated ice cores. Both instrumental and reconstructed temperatures indicate large interannual to decadal scale variability, with the dominant pattern being anti-phase anomalies between the main Antarctic continent and the Antarctic Peninsula region. Comparative analysis of the instrumental Southern Hemisphere (SH) mean temperature record and the reconstruction suggests that at longer timescales, temperatures over the Antarctic continent vary in phase with the SH mean. Our reconstruction suggests that Antarctic temperatures have increased by about 0.2 degrees C since the late nineteenth century. The variability and the long-term trends are strongly modulated by the SH Annular Mode in the atmospheric circulation.

Volcanic Influence on European Summer Precipitation through Monsoons: Possible Cause for “Years without Summer”*

Strong tropical volcanic eruptions have significant effects on global and regional temperatures. Their effects on precipitation, however, are less well understood. Analyzing hydroclimatic anomalies after 14 strong eruptions during the last 400 years in climate reconstructions and model simulations, a reduction of the Asian and African summer monsoons and an increase of south-central European summer precipitation in the year following the eruption was found. The simulations provide evidence for a dynamical link between these phenomena. The weaker monsoon circulations weaken the northern branch of the Hadley circulation, alter the atmospheric circulation over the Atlantic–European sector, and increase precipitation over Europe. This mechanism is able to explain, for instance, the wet summer in parts of Europe during the “year without a summer” of 1816, which up to now has not been explained. This study underlines the importance of atmospheric teleconnections between the tropics and midlatitudes to better understand the regional climate response to stratospheric volcanic aerosols.

Polar MM5 Simulations of the Winter Climate of the Laurentide Ice Sheet at the LGM

Optimized regional climate simulations are conducted using the Polar MM5, a version of the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University-NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5), with a 60-km horizontal resolution domain over North America during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 21 000 calendar years ago), when much of the continent was covered by the Laurentide Ice Sheet (LIS). The objective is to describe the LGM annual cycle at high spatial resolution with an emphasis on the winter atmospheric circulation. Output from a tailored NCAR Community Climate Model version 3 (CCM3) simulation of the LGM climate is used to provide the initial and lateral boundary conditions for Polar MM5. LGM boundary conditions include continental ice sheets, appropriate orbital forcing, reduced CO2 concentration, paleovegetation, modified sea surface temperatures, and lowered sea level. Polar MM5 produces a substantially different atmospheric response to the LGM boundary conditions than CCM3 and other recent GCM simulations. In particular, from November to April the upper-level flow is split around a blocking anticyclone over the LIS, with a northern branch over the Canadian Arctic and a southern branch impacting southern North America. The split flow pattern is most pronounced in January and transitions into a single, consolidated jet stream that migrates northward over the LIS during summer. Sensitivity experiments indicate that the winter split flow in Polar MM5 is primarily due to mechanical forcing by LIS, although model physics and resolution also contribute to the simulated flow configuration. Polar MM5 LGM results are generally consistent with proxy climate estimates in the western United States, Alaska, and the Canadian Arctic and may help resolve some long-standing discrepancies between proxy data and previous simulations of the LGM climate.

Air-Sea Interactions During the Passage of a Winter Storm Over the Gulf Stream: A Three-Dimensional Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean Model Study

A three-dimensional, regional coupled atmosphere-ocean model with full physics is developed to study air-sea interactions during winter storms off the U. S. east coast. Because of the scarcity of open ocean observations, models such as this offer valuable opportunities to investigate how oceanic forcing drives atmospheric circulation and vice versa. The study presented here considers conditions of strong atmospheric forcing (high wind speeds) and strong oceanic forcing (significant sea surface temperature (SST) gradients). A simulated atmospheric cyclone evolves in a manner consistent with Eta reanalysis, and the simulated air-sea heat and momentum exchanges strongly affect the circulations in both the atmosphere and the ocean. For the simulated cyclone of 19-20 January 1998, maximum ocean-to-atmosphere heat fluxes first appear over the Gulf Stream in the South Atlantic Bight, and this results in rapid deepening of the cyclone off the Carolina coast. As the cyclone moves eastward, the heat flux maximum shifts into the region near Cape Hatteras and later northeast of Hatteras, where it enhances the wind locally. The oceanic response to the atmospheric forcing is closely related to the wind direction. Southerly and southwesterly winds tend to strengthen surface currents in the Gulf Stream, whereas northeasterly winds weaken the surface currents in the Gulf Stream and generate southwestward flows on the shelf. The oceanic feedback to the atmosphere moderates the cyclone strength. Compared with a simulation in which the oceanic model always passes the initial SST to the atmospheric model, the coupled simulation in which the oceanic model passes the evolving SST to the atmospheric model produces higher ocean-to-atmosphere heat flux near Gulf Stream meander troughs. This is due to wind-driven lateral shifts of the stream, which in turn enhance the local northeasterly winds. Away from the Gulf Stream the coupled simulation produces surface winds that are 5 similar to 10% weaker. Differences in the surface ocean currents between these two experiments are significant on the shelf and in the open ocean.

UNDERSTANDING TRENDS ASSOCIATED WITH CLOUDS IN IRRADIATED EXOPLANETS

Unlike previously explored relationships between the properties of hot Jovian atmospheres, the geometric albedo and the incident stellar flux do not exhibit a clear correlation, as revealed by our re-analysis of Q0-Q14 Kepler data. If the albedo is primarily associated with the presence of clouds in these irradiated atmospheres, a holistic modeling approach needs to relate the following properties: the strength of stellar irradiation (and hence the strength and depth of atmospheric circulation), the geometric albedo (which controls both the fraction of starlight absorbed and the pressure level at which it is predominantly absorbed), and the properties of the embedded cloud particles (which determine the albedo). The anticipated diversity in cloud properties renders any correlation between the geometric albedo and the stellar flux weak and characterized by considerable scatter. In the limit of vertically uniform populations of scatterers and absorbers, we use an analytical model and scaling relations to relate the temperature-pressure profile of an irradiated atmosphere and the photon deposition layer and to estimate whether a cloud particle will be lofted by atmospheric circulation. We derive an analytical formula for computing the albedo spectrum in terms of the cloud properties, which we compare to the measured albedo spectrum of HD 189733b by Evans et al. Furthermore, we show that whether an optical phase curve is flat or sinusoidal depends on whether the particles are small or large as defined by the Knudsen number. This may be an explanation for why Kepler-7b exhibits evidence for the longitudinal variation in abundance of condensates, while Kepler-12b shows no evidence for the presence of condensates despite the incident stellar flux being similar for both exoplanets. We include an "observer's cookbook" for deciphering various scenarios associated with the optical phase curve, the peak offset of the infrared phase curve, and the geometric albedo.