Asymptotic theory of time varying networks with memory and heterogeneous activation pattern

In this thesis work we develop a new generative model of social networks belonging to the family of Time Varying Networks. The importance of correctly modelling the mechanisms shaping the growth of a network and the dynamics of the edges activation and inactivation are of central importance in network science. Indeed, by means of generative models that mimic the real-world dynamics of contacts in social networks it is possible to forecast the outcome of an epidemic process, optimize the immunization campaign or optimally spread an information among individuals. This task can now be tackled taking advantage of the recent availability of large-scale, high-quality and time-resolved datasets. This wealth of digital data has allowed to deepen our understanding of the structure and properties of many real-world networks. Moreover, the empirical evidence of a temporal dimension in networks prompted the switch of paradigm from a static representation of graphs to a time varying one. In this work we exploit the Activity-Driven paradigm (a modeling tool belonging to the family of Time-Varying-Networks) to develop a general dynamical model that encodes fundamental mechanism shaping the social networks' topology and its temporal structure: social capital allocation and burstiness. The former accounts for the fact that individuals does not randomly invest their time and social interactions but they rather allocate it toward already known nodes of the network. The latter accounts for the heavy-tailed distributions of the inter-event time in social networks. We then empirically measure the properties of these two mechanisms from seven real-world datasets and develop a data-driven model, analytically solving it. We then check the results against numerical simulations and test our predictions with real-world datasets, finding a good agreement between the two. Moreover, we find and characterize a non-trivial interplay between burstiness and social capital allocation in the parameters phase space. Finally, we present a novel approach to the development of a complete generative model of Time-Varying-Networks. This model is inspired by the Kaufman's adjacent possible theory and is based on a generalized version of the Polya's urn. Remarkably, most of the complex and heterogeneous feature of real-world social networks are naturally reproduced by this dynamical model, together with many high-order topological properties (clustering coefficient, community structure etc.).

Approximate Bayesian techniques for inference in stochastic dynamical systems

This thesis is concerned with approximate inference in dynamical systems, from a variational Bayesian perspective. When modelling real world dynamical systems, stochastic differential equations appear as a natural choice, mainly because of their ability to model the noise of the system by adding a variant of some stochastic process to the deterministic dynamics. Hence, inference in such processes has drawn much attention. Here two new extended frameworks are derived and presented that are based on basis function expansions and local polynomial approximations of a recently proposed variational Bayesian algorithm. It is shown that the new extensions converge to the original variational algorithm and can be used for state estimation (smoothing). However, the main focus is on estimating the (hyper-) parameters of these systems (i.e. drift parameters and diffusion coefficients). The new methods are numerically validated on a range of different systems which vary in dimensionality and non-linearity. These are the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, for which the exact likelihood can be computed analytically, the univariate and highly non-linear, stochastic double well and the multivariate chaotic stochastic Lorenz '63 (3-dimensional model). The algorithms are also applied to the 40 dimensional stochastic Lorenz '96 system. In this investigation these new approaches are compared with a variety of other well known methods such as the ensemble Kalman filter / smoother, a hybrid Monte Carlo sampler, the dual unscented Kalman filter (for jointly estimating the systems states and model parameters) and full weak-constraint 4D-Var. Empirical analysis of their asymptotic behaviour as a function of observation density or length of time window increases is provided.

Asymptotic theory of wall-attached convection in a horizontal fluid layer with a vertical magnetic field

A horizontal fluid layer heated from below in the presence of a vertical magnetic field is considered. A simple asymptotic analysis is presented which demonstrates that a convection mode attached to the side walls of the layer sets in at Rayleigh numbers much below those required for the onset of convection in the bulk of the layer. The analysis complements an earlier analysis by Houchens [J. Fluid Mech. 469, 189 (2002)] which derived expressions for the critical Rayleigh number for the onset of convection in a vertical cylinder with an axial magnetic field in the cases of two aspect ratios. © 2008 American Institute of Physics.

On the Asymptotic Behavior of the Ratio between the Numbers of Binary Primitive and Irreducible Polynomials

This work was presented in part at the 8th International Conference on Finite Fields and Applications Fq^8 , Melbourne, Australia, 9-13 July, 2007.

Asymptotic Behaviour of Colength of Varieties of Lie Algebras

This project was partially supported by RFBR, grants 99-01-00233, 98-01-01020 and 00-15-96128.

Asymptotic Property of Eigenvalues and Eigenfunctions of the Laplace Operator in Domain with a Perturbed Boundary

2000 Mathematics Subject Classification: 35J05, 35C15, 44P05

Polynomial Expansions for Solutions of Higher-Order Bessel Heat Equation in Quantum Calculus

Mathematics Subject Class.: 33C10,33D60,26D15,33D05,33D15,33D90

Existence and Asymptotic Stability of Solutions of a Perturbed Quadratic Fractional Integral Equation

Mathematics Subject Classification: 45G10, 45M99, 47H09

On the Transformations of Symplectic Expansions and the Respective Bäcklund Transformation for the KDV Equation

2000 Mathematics Subject Classification: Primary: 34B40; secondary: 35Q51, 35Q53

A Note on the Asymptotic Behaviour of a Periodic Multitype Galton-Watson Branching Process

2000 Mathematics Subject Classification: 60J80.

Asymptotic Expansion of Solution for Almost Regular and Weakly Perturbed Systems of Ordinary Differential Equations

Л. И. Каранджулов, Н. Д. Сиракова - В работата се прилага методът на Поанкаре за решаване на почти регулярни нелинейни гранични задачи при общи гранични условия. Предполага се, че диференциалната система съдържа сингулярна функция по отношение на малкия параметър. При определени условия се доказва асимптотичност на решението на поставената задача.

Asymptotic Behaviour of a Supercritical Galton-Watson Process with Controlled Binomial Migration

AMS subject classification: 60J80, 62F12, 62P10.

Robust Estimation in Multitype Branching Processes Based on their Asymptotic Properties

2000 Mathematics Subject Classification: 60J80.