Stochastic evolution of rules for playing normal form games

The evolution of boundedly rational rules for playing normal form games is studied within stationary environments ofstochastically changing games. Rules are viewed as algorithms prescribing strategies for the different normal formgames that arise. It is shown that many of the folk results of evolutionary game theory typically obtained witha fixed game and fixed strategies carry over to the present case. The results are also related to recent experimentson rules and games.

Almost sure testability of classes of densities

Let a class $\F$ of densities be given. We draw an i.i.d.\ sample from a density $f$ which may or may not be in $\F$. After every $n$, one must make a guess whether $f \in \F$ or not. A class is almost surely testable if there exists such a testing sequence such that for any $f$, we make finitely many errors almost surely. In this paper, several results are given that allowone to decide whether a class is almost surely testable. For example, continuity and square integrability are not testable, but unimodality, log-concavity, and boundedness by a given constant are.

Risk dominance selects the leader. An experimental analysis

Coordination games arise very often in studies of industrial organization and international trade. This type of games has multiple strict equilibria, and therefore the identification of testable predictions isvery difficult. We study a vertical product differentiation model with two asymmetric players choosing first qualities and then prices. This game has two equilibria for some parameter values. However, we apply the risk dominance criterion suggested by Harsanyi and Selten and show that it always selects the equilibrium where the leader is the firm having some initial advantage. We then perform an experimental analysis totest whether the risk dominance prediction is supported by the behaviour oflaboratory agents. We show that the probability that the risk dominance prediction is right depends crucially on the degree of asymmetry of the game. The stronger the asymmetries the higher the predictive power of the risk dominance criterion.

A note on the dual scaling of dominance data and its relationship to correspondence analysis

Dual scaling of a subjects-by-objects table of dominance data (preferences,paired comparisons and successive categories data) has been contrasted with correspondence analysis, as if the two techniques were somehow different. In this note we show that dual scaling of dominance data is equivalent to the correspondence analysis of a table which is doubled with respect to subjects. We also show that the results of both methods can be recovered from a principal components analysis of the undoubled dominance table which is centred with respect to subject means.

When rare is just a matter of sampling: unexpected dominance of clubtail dragonflies (Odonata, Gomphidae) through different collecting methods at Parque Nacional da Serra do Cipó, Minas Gerais State, Brazil

When rare is just a matter of sampling: Unexpected dominance of clubtail dragonflies (Odonata, Gomphidae) through different collecting methods at Parque Nacional da Serra do Cipó, Minas Gerais State, Brazil. Capture of dragonfly adults during two short expeditions to Parque Nacional da Serra do Cipó, Minas Gerais State, using three distinct collecting methodsaerial nets, Malaise and light sheet trapsis reported. The results are outstanding due the high number of species of Gomphidae (7 out of 26 Odonata species), including a new species of Cyanogomphus Selys, 1873, obtained by two non-traditional collecting methods. Because active collecting with aerial nets is the standard approach for dragonfly inventories, we discuss some aspects of the use of traps, comparing our results with those in the literature, suggesting they should be used as complementary methods in faunistic studies. Furthermore, Zonophora campanulata annulata Belle, 1983 is recorded for the first time from Minas Gerais State and taxonomic notes about Phyllogomphoides regularis (Selys, 1873) and Progomphus complicatus Selys, 1854 are also given.

Almost routine prophylactic cholecystectomy during laparoscopic gastric bypass is safe

RAPPORT DE SYNTHESE : Introduction : les patients obèses morbides présentent un risque majeur de développer des calculs biliaires en raison d'une sécrétion accrue de cholestérol dans la bile. Ce risque, davantage élevé dans la phase de perte pondérale rapide consécutive à la chirurgie bariatrique ou lors de régimes amaigrissants, est souvent la cause de nombreux symptômes, voire de complications biliaires. Aussi l'association d'une cholécystectomie à la chirurgie bariatrique, notamment le bypass gastrique laparoscopique a-t-elle été proposée afin d'éviter ces complications parfois redoutables dans cette population fragile. Ce concept a cependant fait l'objet de démentis dans de récentes études où ce risque apparaîtrait moins élevé, et la cholécystectomie durant le by- pris gastrique laparoscopique pourrait être grevée de difficultés et présenter des risques opératoires non négligeables pour le patient. Patients et méthodes : notre série comporte 772 patients opérés entre 2000 et 2007 par by-pass gastrique laparoscopique, avec montage d'une anse en Y selon Roux. Ces patients obèses morbides avaient été sélectionnés sur la base d'une anamnèse concluante, d'un examen anthropométrique, d'un bilan sanguin et d'un ultrason abdominal. Une analyse rétrospective des résultats d'ultrason abdominal préopératoire et des rapports histopathologiques des vésicules biliaires en postopératoire a été réalisée chez les patients opérés avant 2004. Résultats : 58 patients (7,5 %) avaient déjà eu une cholécystectomie. L'US abdominal a révélé des calculs ou de la boue biliaire chez 81 patients (11,3 %), un polype chez un patient et une vésicule biliaire normale chez les patients restants. La cholécystectomie a été réalisée concomitamment au by-pass gastrique chez 66S patients (91,7 %) et des calculs biliaires retrouvés à l'examen per-opératoire des vésicules biliaires chez 25 patients (3,9 %), rapportant alors la prévalence de la cholélithiase à 21,2 % dans cette population. L'âge des patients porteurs de calculs biliaires était significativement plus élevé que celui des patients sans calculs biliares (43,5 contre 38,7 ans, P < 0,0001). A l'examen histopathologique, des anomalies ont été décrites dans 81,8 % des vésicules biliaires, consistant pour la plupart en cholécystite chronique et cholestérolose. Aucune complication post-opératoire n'a été associée à la cholécystectomie et le prolongement du temps opératoire était en moyenne de 19 minutes (4 - 45 minutes) sans aucun impact sur le séjour hospitalier. La cholécystectomie n'a pas été réalisée chez 59 patients (8,3 %) en raison de conditions opératoires défavorables, notamment une exposition insuffisante. Un traitement d'acide ursodésoxycholique a été prescrit sur une période de 6 mois et aucun de ces patients n'a manifesté de symptômes biliaires. Conclusion : la cholécystectomie peut être réalisée à titre prophylactique et en toute sécurité au cours du by-pass gastrique laparoscopique. Cet acte opératoire supplémentaire sans conséquence sur le séjour hospitalier, constitue selon la présente étude une forme de prophylaxie recommandable dans la prévention de la formation des calculs biliaires dans la phase de perte pondérale post-opératoire. Sa supériorité ou non par rapport à la prophylaxie médicamenteuse à l'acide ursodésoxycholique n'a pas encore été établie. Des études prospectives randomisées seraient nécessaires afin de confirmer l'avantage de l'une ou l'autre de ces deux alternatives.

The effects of dominance, regular inbreeding and sampling design on Q(ST), an estimator of population differentiation for quantitative traits.

To test whether quantitative traits are under directional or homogenizing selection, it is common practice to compare population differentiation estimates at molecular markers (F(ST)) and quantitative traits (Q(ST)). If the trait is neutral and its determinism is additive, then theory predicts that Q(ST) = F(ST), while Q(ST) > F(ST) is predicted under directional selection for different local optima, and Q(ST) < F(ST) is predicted under homogenizing selection. However, nonadditive effects can alter these predictions. Here, we investigate the influence of dominance on the relation between Q(ST) and F(ST) for neutral traits. Using analytical results and computer simulations, we show that dominance generally deflates Q(ST) relative to F(ST). Under inbreeding, the effect of dominance vanishes, and we show that for selfing species, a better estimate of Q(ST) is obtained from selfed families than from half-sib families. We also compare several sampling designs and find that it is always best to sample many populations (>20) with few families (five) rather than few populations with many families. Provided that estimates of Q(ST) are derived from individuals originating from many populations, we conclude that the pattern Q(ST) > F(ST), and hence the inference of directional selection for different local optima, is robust to the effect of nonadditive gene actions.

Stochastic resonance in noisy nondynamical systems

We have analyzed the effects of the addition of external noise to nondynamical systems displaying intrinsic noise, and established general conditions under which stochastic resonance appears. The criterion we have found may be applied to a wide class of nondynamical systems, covering situations of different nature. Some particular examples are discussed in detail.

Stochastic Population Projection for Germany - based on the Quadratic Spline approach to modelling age specific fertility rates

This contribution builds upon a former paper by the authors (Lipps and Betz 2004), in which a stochastic population projection for East- and West Germany is performed. Aim was to forecast relevant population parameters and their distribution in a consistent way. We now present some modifications, which have been modelled since. First, population parameters for the entire German population are modelled. In order to overcome the modelling problem of the structural break in the East during reunification, we show that the adaptation process of the relevant figures by the East can be considered to be completed by now. As a consequence, German parameters can be modelled just by using the West German historic patterns, with the start-off population of entire Germany. Second, a new model to simulate age specific fertility rates is presented, based on a quadratic spline approach. This offers a higher flexibility to model various age specific fertility curves. The simulation results are compared with the scenario based official forecasts for Germany in 2050. Exemplary for some population parameters (e.g. dependency ratio), it can be shown that the range spanned by the medium and extreme variants correspond to the s-intervals in the stochastic framework. It seems therefore more appropriate to treat this range as a s-interval covering about two thirds of the true distribution.

Male body size and breeding tubercles are both linked to intra-sexual dominance and reproductive success in the minnow

Male dominance hierarchies are usually linked to relative body size and to weapon size, that is, to determinants of fighting ability. Secondary sexual characters that are not directly used as weapons could still be linked to dominance if they reveal determination or overall health and vigour and hence, indirectly, fighting ability. We studied the mating behaviour of the minnow, Phoxinus phoxinus, a cyprinid fish in which males develop breeding tubercles during the spawning season. The function of these breeding tubercles is still not clear. Using microsatellite markers, we determined male reproductive success under controlled conditions. The minnows were territorial and quickly established a dominance hierarchy at the beginning of the spawning season. Dominance was strongly and positively linked to fertilization success. Although body size and number of breeding tubercles were not significantly correlated in our sample, both large males and males with many breeding tubercles were more dominant and achieved higher fertilization success than small males or males with few tubercles. We found multimale fertilization in most clutches, suggesting that sperm competition is important in this species. Females showed behaviour that may be linked to spawning decision, that is, male dominance might not be the only determinant of male reproductive success in minnows

The fossil record and evolution of freshwater plants: A review

Palaeobotany applied to freshwater plants is an emerging field of palaeontology. Hydrophytic plants reveal evolutionary trends of their own, clearly distinct from those of the terrestrial and marine flora. During the Precambrian, two groups stand out in the fossil record of freshwater plants: the Cyanobacteria (stromatolites) in benthic environments and the prasinophytes (leiosphaeridian acritarchs) in transitional planktonic environments. During the Palaeozoic, green algae (Chlorococcales, Zygnematales, charophytes and some extinct groups) radiated and developed the widest range of morphostructural patterns known for these groups. Between the Permian and Early Cretaceous, charophytes dominated macrophytic associations, with the consequence that over tens of millions of years, freshwater flora bypassed the dominance of vascular plants on land. During the Early Cretaceous, global extension of the freshwater environments is associated with diversification of the flora, including new charophyte families and the appearance of aquatic angiosperms and ferns for the first time. Mesozoic planktonic assemblages retained their ancestral composition that was dominated by coenobial Chlorococcales, until the appearance of freshwater dinoflagellates in the Early Cretaceous. In the Late Cretaceous, freshwater angiosperms dominated almost all macrophytic communities worldwide. The Tertiary was characterised by the diversification of additional angiosperm and aquatic fern lineages, which resulted in the first differentiation of aquatic plant biogeoprovinces. Phytoplankton also diversified during the Eocene with the development of freshwater diatoms and chrysophytes. Diatoms, which were exclusively marine during tens of millions of years, were dominant over the Chlorococcales during Neogene and in later assemblages. During the Quaternary, aquatic plant communities suffered from the effects of eutrophication, paludification and acidification, which were the result of the combined impact of glaciation and anthropogenic disturbance.

Kinematic reduction of reaction-diffusion fronts with multiplicative noise. Derivation of stochastic sharp-interface equations

We study the dynamics of generic reaction-diffusion fronts, including pulses and chemical waves, in the presence of multiplicative noise. We discuss the connection between the reaction-diffusion Langevin-like field equations and the kinematic (eikonal) description in terms of a stochastic moving-boundary or sharp-interface approximation. We find that the effective noise is additive and we relate its strength to the noise parameters in the original field equations, to first order in noise strength, but including a partial resummation to all orders which captures the singular dependence on the microscopic cutoff associated with the spatial correlation of the noise. This dependence is essential for a quantitative and qualitative understanding of fluctuating fronts, affecting both scaling properties and nonuniversal quantities. Our results predict phenomena such as the shift of the transition point between the pushed and pulled regimes of front propagation, in terms of the noise parameters, and the corresponding transition to a non-Kardar-Parisi-Zhang universality class. We assess the quantitative validity of the results in several examples including equilibrium fluctuations and kinetic roughening. We also predict and observe a noise-induced pushed-pulled transition. The analytical predictions are successfully tested against rigorous results and show excellent agreement with numerical simulations of reaction-diffusion field equations with multiplicative noise.

Stochastic generation of homogeneous isotropic turbulence with well-defined-spectra

A precise and simple computational model to generate well-behaved two-dimensional turbulent flows is presented. The whole approach rests on the use of stochastic differential equations and is general enough to reproduce a variety of energy spectra and spatiotemporal correlation functions. Analytical expressions for both the continuous and the discrete versions, together with simulation algorithms, are derived. Results for two relevant spectra, covering distinct ranges of wave numbers, are given.