Climate change and dengue: a critical and systematic review of quantitative modelling approaches

Background Many studies have found associations between climatic conditions and dengue transmission. However, there is a debate about the future impacts of climate change on dengue transmission. This paper reviewed epidemiological evidence on the relationship between climate and dengue with a focus on quantitative methods for assessing the potential impacts of climate change on global dengue transmission. Methods A literature search was conducted in October 2012, using the electronic databases PubMed, Scopus, ScienceDirect, ProQuest, and Web of Science. The search focused on peer-reviewed journal articles published in English from January 1991 through October 2012. Results Sixteen studies met the inclusion criteria and most studies showed that the transmission of dengue is highly sensitive to climatic conditions, especially temperature, rainfall and relative humidity. Studies on the potential impacts of climate change on dengue indicate increased climatic suitability for transmission and an expansion of the geographic regions at risk during this century. A variety of quantitative modelling approaches were used in the studies. Several key methodological issues and current knowledge gaps were identified through this review. Conclusions It is important to assemble spatio-temporal patterns of dengue transmission compatible with long-term data on climate and other socio-ecological changes and this would advance projections of dengue risks associated with climate change. Keywords: Climate; Dengue; Models; Projection; Scenarios

Why 'down under' is a cut above: a comparison of rates of and reasons for caesarean section in England and Australia

Background Most studies examining determinants of rising rates of caesarean section have examined patterns in documented reasons for caesarean over time in a single location. Further insights could be gleaned from cross-cultural research that examines practice patterns in locations with disparate rates of caesarean section at a single time point. Methods We compared both rates of and main reason for pre-labour and intrapartum caesarean between England and Queensland, Australia, using data from retrospective cross-sectional surveys of women who had recently given birth in England (n = 5,250) and Queensland (n = 3,467). Results Women in Queensland were more likely to have had a caesarean birth (36.2%) than women in England (25.1% of births; OR = 1.44, 95% CI = 1.28-1.61), after adjustment for obstetric characteristics. Between-country differences were found for rates of pre-labour caesarean (21.2% vs. 12.2%) but not for intrapartum caesarean or assisted vaginal birth. Compared to women in England, women in Queensland with a history of caesarean were more likely to have had a pre-labour caesarean and more likely to have had an intrapartum caesarean, due only to a previous caesarean. Among women with no previous caesarean, Queensland women were more likely than women in England to have had a caesarean due to suspected disproportion and failure to progress in labour. Conclusions The higher rates of caesarean birth in Queensland are largely attributable to higher rates of caesarean for women with a previous caesarean, and for the main reason of having had a previous caesarean. Variation between countries may be accounted for by the absence of a single, comprehensive clinical guideline for caesarean section in Queensland. Keywords: Caesarean section; Childbirth; Pregnancy; Cross-cultural comparison; Vaginal birth after caesarean; Previous caesarean section; Patient-reported data; Quality improvement

Teaching pharmacy students how to manage effectively in a highly competitive environment

Aims To evaluate if a revamped business management course for 4th year undergraduate pharmacy students had achieved the course aims of not only improving pharmacy students’ perceived understanding of pharmacy business management topics but also increasing their confidence in their business management knowledge and skills. Background Student feedback from previous years had indicated that the cohort had struggled to translate theoretical business management concepts learned in the classroom into practice in the workplace. To address this problem the course has been changed to a ‘flipped classroom’ format with face-to-face time focusing on case-based scenarios and interactive classroom discussion with some role plays. Method Both course assessment throughout the semester and a student survey informed the evaluation process. Results After completing the course, students felt they had increased their knowledge of business management concepts but many indicated that they lacked the confidence to undertake basic management functions. Conclusions Further course restructuring is required with a greater focus on skills development.

Genetic technologies and the regulation of reproductive decision-making in Australia

This article provides a critical analysis of the current Australian regulatory landscape at the interface between genetics and reproductive decision- making. The authors argue that a comparative analysis with other countries and international law and a contextual examination of the way law regulates concepts such as disease and health, abnormality and normality is necessary before we can develop appropriate policy and legislative responses in this area. Specific genetic testing technologies are considered including prenatal genetic testing, preimplantation genetic diagnosis and inheritable genetic modification. An increasing number of members of the Australian community are using genetic testing technologies when they decide to have a baby. The authors argue that as concepts of disease and health vary among members of the community and the potential to test for traits other than illness increases, a new tension arises between an ethic of individual choice and a role for government in regulating reproductive decision-making.

Student physical activity levels during a season of sport education

The purpose of this study was to determine the extent to which sport education can provide students with sufficient opportunities for developing moderate- to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA). Nineteen seventh-grade boys (average age = 12.9 yrs.) participated in a 22-lesson season of floor hockey. For all students (both higher and lower skilled), students averaged a total of 31.6 min of MVPA during the season, or 63.2% of lesson time. Further, there was no significant difference according to skill level (33.4 min [Higher] vs. 30.4 min [Lower]), nor were there any significant differences in MVPA levels across the phases of the season.

Physical activity correlates in adolescent girls who differ by weight status

Objective This study compared correlates of physical activity (PA) among African-American and white girls of different weight groups to guide future interventions. Research Methods and Procedures Participants were 1015 girls (mean age, 14.6 years; 45% African-American) from 12 high schools in South Carolina who served as control subjects for a school-based intervention. Post-intervention measures obtained at the end of ninth grade were used. PA was measured using the Three-Day PA Recall, and a questionnaire measured social-cognitive and environmental variables thought to mediate PA. Height and weight were measured, and BMI was calculated. Girls were stratified by race and categorized into three groups, based on BMI percentiles for girls from CDC growth charts: normal (BMI < 85th percentile), at risk (BMI, 85th to 94th percentile), and overweight (BMI ≥ 95th percentile). Girls were further divided into active and low-active groups, based on a vigorous PA standard (average of one or more 30-minute blocks per day per 3-day period). Mixed-model ANOVA was used to compare factors among groups, treating school as a random effect Results None of the social-cognitive or environmental variables differed by weight status for African-American or white girls. Perceived behavioral control and sports team participation were significantly higher in girls who were more active, regardless of weight or race group. In general, social-cognitive variables seem to be more related to activity in white girls, whereas environmental factors seem more related to activity in African-American girls. Discussion PA interventions should be tailored to the unique needs of girls based on PA levels and race, rather than on weight status alone.

Calculate excess mortality during heatwaves using Hilbert-Huang transform algorithm

Background Heatwaves could cause the population excess death numbers to be ranged from tens to thousands within a couple of weeks in a local area. An excess mortality due to a special event (e.g., a heatwave or an epidemic outbreak) is estimated by subtracting the mortality figure under ‘normal’ conditions from the historical daily mortality records. The calculation of the excess mortality is a scientific challenge because of the stochastic temporal pattern of the daily mortality data which is characterised by (a) the long-term changing mean levels (i.e., non-stationarity); (b) the non-linear temperature-mortality association. The Hilbert-Huang Transform (HHT) algorithm is a novel method originally developed for analysing the non-linear and non-stationary time series data in the field of signal processing, however, it has not been applied in public health research. This paper aimed to demonstrate the applicability and strength of the HHT algorithm in analysing health data. Methods Special R functions were developed to implement the HHT algorithm to decompose the daily mortality time series into trend and non-trend components in terms of the underlying physical mechanism. The excess mortality is calculated directly from the resulting non-trend component series. Results The Brisbane (Queensland, Australia) and the Chicago (United States) daily mortality time series data were utilized for calculating the excess mortality associated with heatwaves. The HHT algorithm estimated 62 excess deaths related to the February 2004 Brisbane heatwave. To calculate the excess mortality associated with the July 1995 Chicago heatwave, the HHT algorithm needed to handle the mode mixing issue. The HHT algorithm estimated 510 excess deaths for the 1995 Chicago heatwave event. To exemplify potential applications, the HHT decomposition results were used as the input data for a subsequent regression analysis, using the Brisbane data, to investigate the association between excess mortality and different risk factors. Conclusions The HHT algorithm is a novel and powerful analytical tool in time series data analysis. It has a real potential to have a wide range of applications in public health research because of its ability to decompose a nonlinear and non-stationary time series into trend and non-trend components consistently and efficiently.

Computational strategies for surface fitting using thin plate spline finite element methods

Thin plate spline finite element methods are used to fit a surface to an irregularly scattered dataset [S. Roberts, M. Hegland, and I. Altas. Approximation of a Thin Plate Spline Smoother using Continuous Piecewise Polynomial Functions. SIAM, 1:208--234, 2003]. The computational bottleneck for this algorithm is the solution of large, ill-conditioned systems of linear equations at each step of a generalised cross validation algorithm. Preconditioning techniques are investigated to accelerate the convergence of the solution of these systems using Krylov subspace methods. The preconditioners under consideration are block diagonal, block triangular and constraint preconditioners [M. Benzi, G. H. Golub, and J. Liesen. Numerical solution of saddle point problems. Acta Numer., 14:1--137, 2005]. The effectiveness of each of these preconditioners is examined on a sample dataset taken from a known surface. From our numerical investigation, constraint preconditioners appear to provide improved convergence for this surface fitting problem compared to block preconditioners.

4DCT radiotherapy for NSCLC: A review of planning methods

Purpose To establish whether the use of a passive or active technique of planning target volume (PTV) definition and treatment methods for non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) deliver the most effective results. This literature review assesses the advantages and disadvantages in recent studies of each, while assessing the validity of the two approaches for planning and treatment. Methods A systematic review of literature focusing on the planning and treatment of radiation therapy to NSCLC tumours. Different approaches which have been published in recent articles are subjected to critical appraisal in order to determine their relative efficacy. Results Free-breathing (FB) is the optimal method to perform planning scans for patients and departments, as it involves no significant increase in cost, workload or education. Maximum intensity projection (MIP) is the fastest form of delineation, however it is noted to be less accurate than the ten-phase overlap approach for computed tomography (CT). Although gating has proven to reduce margins and facilitate sparing of organs at risk, treatment times can be longer and planning time can be as much as 15 times higher for intensity modulated radiation therapy (IMRT). This raises issues with patient comfort and stabilisation, impacting on the chance of geometric miss. Stereotactic treatments can take up to 3 hours to treat, along with increases in planning and treatment, as well as the additional hardware, software and training required. Conclusion Four-dimensional computed tomography (4DCT) is superior to 3DCT, with the passive FB approach for PTV delineation and treatment optimal. Departments should use a combination of MIP with visual confirmation ensuring coverage for stage 1 disease. Stages 2-3 should be delineated using ten-phases overlaid. Stereotactic and gated treatments for early stage disease should be used accordingly; FB-IMRT is optimal for latter stage disease.

Nanomorphology influence on the light conversion mechanisms in highly efficient diketopyrrolopyrrole based organic solar cells

In this work, diketopyrrolopyrrole-based polymer bulk heterojunction solar cells with inverted and regular architecture have been investigated. The influence of the polymer:fullerene ratio on the photoactive film nanomorphology has been studied in detail. Transmission Electron Microscopy and Atomic Force Microscopy reveal that the resulting film morphology strongly depends on the fullerene ratio. This fact determines the photocurrent generation and governs the transport of free charge carriers. Slight variations on the PCBM ratio respect to the polymer show great differences on the electrical behavior of the solar cell. Once the polymer:fullerene ratio is accurately adjusted, power conversion efficiencies of 4.7% and 4.9% are obtained for inverted and regular architectures respectively. Furthermore, by correlating the optical and morphological characterization of the polymer:fullerene films and the electrical behavior of solar cells, an ad hoc interpretation is proposed to explain the photovoltaic performance as a function of this polymer:blend composition.

Book Reviews : "Off Limits: a parent’s guide to keeping kids safe from sexual abuse" and "Smart Parenting for Safer Kids"

Two important books on the topic of child sexual abuse prevention were recently published: Off Limits: A Parent’s Guide to Keeping Kids Safe from Sexual Abuse (Wurtele & Berkower, 2010) and Smart Parenting for Safer Kids (Briggs, 2010). The authors of both books are highly credentialed with long experience researching and writing about child sexual abuse prevention. Sandy Wurtele, PhD, is author of landmark child- and parent-focused sexual abuse prevention programs conducted in the USA over the past 30 years. She has published over 80 journal articles and book chapters on this topic. Her co-author, Feather Berkower, MSW, has been conducting workshops for adults on this topic for 25 years. Freda Briggs, PhD, has over 40 years’ experience in child protection in Australia and has also published numerous scholarly works on the topic. She was the inaugural recipient of the Australian Humanitarian Award in 1998, was Senior Australian of the Year in 2000, and was awarded an Order of Australia in 2005.

Exploring Retinal Markers of Diabetic Neuropathy

Purpose : To investigate the application of retinal nerve fibre layer (RNFL) thickness as a marker for severity of diabetic peripheral neuropathy (DPN) in people with Type 2 diabetes. Methods : This was a cross-sectional study whereby 61 participants (mean age 61 [41-75 years], mean duration of diabetes 14 [1-40 years], 70% male) with Type 2 diabetes and DPN underwent optical coherence tomography (OCT) scans. Global and 4 quadrant (TSNI) RNFL thicknesses were measured at 3.45mm around the optic nerve head of one eye. Neuropathy disability score (NDS) was used to assess the severity of DPN on a 0 to 10 scale. Participants were divided into three age-matched groups representing mild (NDS=3-5), moderate (NDS=6-8) and severe (NDS=9-10) neuropathy. Two regression models were fitted for statistical analysis: 1) NDS scores as co-variate for global and quadrant RNFL thicknesses, 2) NDS groups as a factor for global RNFL thickness only. Results : Mean (SD) RNFL thickness (µm) was 103(9) for mild neuropathy (n=34), 101(10) for moderate neuropathy (n=16) and 95(13) in the group with severe neuropathy (n=11). Global RNFL thickness and NDS scores were statistically significantly related (b=-1.20, p=0.048). When neuropathy was assessed across groups, a trend of thinner mean RNFL thickness was observed with increasing severity of neuropathy; however, this result was not statistically significant (F=2.86, p=0.065). TSNI quadrant analysis showed that mean RNFL thickness reduction in the inferior quadrant was 2.55 µm per 1 unit increase in NDS score (p=0.005). However, the regression coefficients were not statistically significant for RNFL thickness in the superior (b=-1.0, p=0.271), temporal (b=-0.90, p=0.238) and nasal (b=-0.99, p=0.205) quadrants. Conclusions : RNFL thickness was reduced with increasing severity of DPN and the effect was most evident in the inferior quadrant. Measuring RNFL thickness using OCT may prove to be a useful, non-invasive technique for identifying severity of DPN and may also provide additional insight into common mechanisms for peripheral neuropathy and RNFL damage.

Breathe easier online : evaluation of a randomized controlled pilot trial of an internet-based intervention to improve well-being in children and adolescents with a chronic respiratory condition

Background Chronic respiratory illnesses are the most common group of childhood chronic health conditions and are overrepresented in socially isolated groups. Objective To conduct a randomized controlled pilot trial to evaluate the efficacy of Breathe Easier Online (BEO), an Internet-based problem-solving program with minimal facilitator involvement to improve psychosocial well-being in children and adolescents with a chronic respiratory condition. Methods We randomly assigned 42 socially isolated children and adolescents (18 males), aged between 10 and 17 years to either a BEO (final n = 19) or a wait-list control (final n = 20) condition. In total, 3 participants (2 from BEO and 1 from control) did not complete the intervention. Psychosocial well-being was operationalized through self-reported scores on depression symptoms and social problem solving. Secondary outcome measures included self-reported attitudes toward their illness and spirometry results. Paper-and-pencil questionnaires were completed at the hospital when participants attended a briefing session at baseline (time 1) and in their homes after the intervention for the BEO group or a matched 9-week time period for the wait-list group (time 2). Results The two groups were comparable at baseline across all demographic measures (all F < 1). For the primary outcome measures, there were no significant group differences on depression (P = .17) or social problem solving (P = .61). However, following the online intervention, those in the BEO group reported significantly lower depression (P = .04), less impulsive/careless problem solving (P = .01), and an improvement in positive attitude toward their illness (P = .04) compared with baseline. The wait-list group did not show these differences. Children in the BEO group and their parents rated the online modules very favorably. Conclusions Although there were no significant group differences on primary outcome measures, our pilot data provide tentative support for the feasibility (acceptability and user satisfaction) and initial efficacy of an Internet-based intervention for improving well-being in children and adolescents with a chronic respiratory condition. Trial registration Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry number: ACTRN12610000214033;

Purposeful program theory: Effective use of theories of change and logic models [Book Review]

The purpose of this book by two Australian authors is to: introduce the audience to the full complement of contextual elements found within program theory; offer practical suggestions to engage with theories of change, theories of action and logic models; and provide substantial evidence for this approach through scholarly literature, practice case studies together with the authors' combined experience of 60 years.