979 resultados para "Future as Nightmare" Scenarios
Resumo:
Cardiovascular diseases (CVD) are the main causes of death in the Western world. Among the risk factors that are modifiable by diet, for reducing cardiovascular disease risks, the total plasma concentrations of cholesterol, triglycerides, LDL-C, and HDL-C are the most important. Dietary measures can balance these components of the lipid profile thus reducing the risk of cardiovascular diseases. The main food components that affect the lipid profile and can be modified by diet are the saturated and trans fats, unsaturated fats, cholesterol, phytosterols, plant protein, and soluble fiber. A wealth of evidence suggests that saturated and trans fats and cholesterol in the diet raise the total plasma cholesterol and LDL-C. Trans fats also reduce HDL-C, an important lipoprotein for mediating the reverse cholesterol transport. On the other hand, phytosterols, plant proteins, isoflavones, and soluble fiber are protective diet factors against cardiovascular diseases by modulating plasma lipoprotein levels. These food components at certain concentrations are able to reduce the total cholesterol, TG, and LDL-C and raise the plasma levels of HDL-C. Therefore, diet is an important tool for the prevention and control of cardiovascular diseases, and should be taken into account as a whole, i.e., not only the food components that modulate plasma concentrations of lipoproteins, but also the diet content of macro nutrients and micronutrients should be considered.
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Background: The Atlantic rainforest ecosystem, where bromeliads are abundant, provides an excellent environment for Kerteszia species, because these anophelines use the axils of those plants as larval habitat. Anopheles (K.) cruzii and Anopheles (K.) bellator are considered the primary vectors of malaria in the Atlantic forest. Although the incidence of malaria has declined in some areas of the Atlantic forest, autochthonous cases are still registered every year, with Anopheles cruzii being considered to be a primary vector of both human and simian Plasmodium. Methods: Recent publications that addressed ecological aspects that are important for understanding the involvement of Kerteszia species in the epidemiology of malaria in the Atlantic rainforest in the Neotropical Region were analysed. Conclusion: The current state of knowledge about Kerteszia species in relation to the Atlantic rainforest ecosystem was discussed. Emphasis was placed on ecological characteristics related to epidemiological aspects of this group of mosquitoes. The main objective was to investigate biological aspects of the species that should be given priority in future studies
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The topic of environmental sustainability is generating increased concern among business executives, governments, consumers, and management scholars. As these stakeholders struggle with the challenges and opportunities presented by an array of environmental issues, HRM scholars and practitioners alike have been relatively slow to engage in the ongoing discussions and debates. Through this special issue on Green FIRM, we seek to stimulate the field of HRM to expand its role in the pursuit of environmentally sustainable business. In this introduction to the special issue, we first provide an overview of the articles that appear in the special issue. Next we present a detailed discussion of research questions that arise from a consideration of several functional HRM practices, including performance management; training, development, and learning; compensation and rewards; and organizational culture. We conclude by describing opportunities for research at the intersection of strategic HRM and environmental management. If pursued with vigor, research addressing this extensive agenda could begin to establish a healthy field of Green FIRM scholarship.
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The mass function of cluster-size halos and their redshift distribution are computed for 12 distinct accelerating cosmological scenarios and confronted to the predictions of the conventional flat Lambda CDM model. The comparison with Lambda CDM is performed by a two-step process. First, we determine the free parameters of all models through a joint analysis involving the latest cosmological data, using supernovae type Ia, the cosmic microwave background shift parameter, and baryon acoustic oscillations. Apart from a braneworld inspired cosmology, it is found that the derived Hubble relation of the remaining models reproduces the Lambda CDM results approximately with the same degree of statistical confidence. Second, in order to attempt to distinguish the different dark energy models from the expectations of Lambda CDM, we analyze the predicted cluster-size halo redshift distribution on the basis of two future cluster surveys: (i) an X-ray survey based on the eROSITA satellite, and (ii) a Sunayev-Zeldovich survey based on the South Pole Telescope. As a result, we find that the predictions of 8 out of 12 dark energy models can be clearly distinguished from the Lambda CDM cosmology, while the predictions of 4 models are statistically equivalent to those of the Lambda CDM model, as far as the expected cluster mass function and redshift distribution are concerned. The present analysis suggests that such a technique appears to be very competitive to independent tests probing the late time evolution of the Universe and the associated dark energy effects.
Resumo:
Aims. We calculate the theoretical event rate of gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) from the collapse of massive first-generation (Population III; Pop III) stars. The Pop III GRBs could be super-energetic with the isotropic energy up to E(iso) greater than or similar to 10(55-57) erg, providing a unique probe of the high-redshift Universe. Methods. We consider both the so-called Pop III.1 stars (primordial) and Pop III.2 stars (primordial but affected by radiation from other stars). We employ a semi-analytical approach that considers inhomogeneous hydrogen reionization and chemical evolution of the intergalactic medium. Results. We show that Pop III.2 GRBs occur more than 100 times more frequently than Pop III.1 GRBs, and thus should be suitable targets for future GRB missions. Interestingly, our optimistic model predicts an event rate that is already constrained by the current radio transient searches. We expect similar to 10-10(4) radio afterglows above similar to 0.3 mJy on the sky with similar to 1 year variability and mostly without GRBs (orphans), which are detectable by ALMA, EVLA, LOFAR, and SKA, while we expect to observe maximum of N < 20 GRBs per year integrated over at z > 6 for Pop III.2 and N < 0.08 per year integrated over at z > 10 for Pop III.1 with EXIST, and N < 0.2 for Pop III.2 GRBs per year integrated over at z > 6 with Swift.
Resumo:
Background: Discussion surrounding the settlement of the New World has recently gained momentum with advances in molecular biology, archaeology and bioanthropology. Recent evidence from these diverse fields is found to support different colonization scenarios. The currently available genetic evidence suggests a ""single migration'' model, in which both early and later Native American groups derive from one expansion event into the continent. In contrast, the pronounced anatomical differences between early and late Native American populations have led others to propose more complex scenarios, involving separate colonization events of the New World and a distinct origin for these groups. Methodology/Principal Findings: Using large samples of Early American crania, we: 1) calculated the rate of morphological differentiation between Early and Late American samples under three different time divergence assumptions, and compared our findings to the predicted morphological differentiation under neutral conditions in each case; and 2) further tested three dispersal scenarios for the colonization of the New World by comparing the morphological distances among early and late Amerindians, East Asians, Australo-Melanesians and early modern humans from Asia to geographical distances associated with each dispersion model. Results indicate that the assumption of a last shared common ancestor outside the continent better explains the observed morphological differences between early and late American groups. This result is corroborated by our finding that a model comprising two Asian waves of migration coming through Bering into the Americas fits the cranial anatomical evidence best, especially when the effects of diversifying selection to climate are taken into account. Conclusions: We conclude that the morphological diversity documented through time in the New World is best accounted for by a model postulating two waves of human expansion into the continent originating in East Asia and entering through Beringia.
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The abundance and distribution of collapsed objects such as galaxy clusters will become an important tool to investigate the nature of dark energy and dark matter. Number counts of very massive objects are sensitive not only to the equation of state of dark energy, which parametrizes the smooth component of its pressure, but also to the sound speed of dark energy, which determines the amount of pressure in inhomogeneous and collapsed structures. Since the evolution of these structures must be followed well into the nonlinear regime, and a fully relativistic framework for this regime does not exist yet, we compare two approximate schemes: the widely used spherical collapse model and the pseudo-Newtonian approach. We show that both approximation schemes convey identical equations for the density contrast, when the pressure perturbation of dark energy is parametrized in terms of an effective sound speed. We also make a comparison of these approximate approaches to general relativity in the linearized regime, which lends some support to the approximations.
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Dictated by the string theory and various higher dimensional scenarios, black holes in D > 4-dimensional space-times must have higher curvature corrections. The first and dominant term is quadratic in curvature, and called the Gauss-Bonnet (GB) term. We shall show that although the Gauss-Bonnet correction changes black hole's geometry only softly, the emission of gravitons is suppressed by many orders even at quite small values of the GB coupling. The huge suppression of the graviton emission is due to the multiplication of the two effects: the quick cooling of the black hole when one turns on the GB coupling and the exponential decreasing of the gray-body factor of the tensor type of gravitons at small and moderate energies. At higher D the tensor gravitons emission is dominant, so that the overall lifetime of black holes with Gauss-Bonnet corrections is many orders larger than was expected. This effect should be relevant for the future experiments at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC).
Resumo:
The Brazilian Amazon is one of the most rapidly developing agricultural areas in the world and represents a potentially large future source of greenhouse gases from land clearing and subsequent agricultural management. In an integrated approach, we estimate the greenhouse gas dynamics of natural ecosystems and agricultural ecosystems after clearing in the context of a future climate. We examine scenarios of deforestation and postclearing land use to estimate the future (2006-2050) impacts on carbon dioxide (CO(2)), methane (CH(4)), and nitrous oxide (N(2)O) emissions from the agricultural frontier state of Mato Grosso, using a process-based biogeochemistry model, the Terrestrial Ecosystems Model (TEM). We estimate a net emission of greenhouse gases from Mato Grosso, ranging from 2.8 to 15.9 Pg CO(2)-equivalents (CO(2)-e) from 2006 to 2050. Deforestation is the largest source of greenhouse gas emissions over this period, but land uses following clearing account for a substantial portion (24-49%) of the net greenhouse gas budget. Due to land-cover and land-use change, there is a small foregone carbon sequestration of 0.2-0.4 Pg CO(2)-e by natural forests and cerrado between 2006 and 2050. Both deforestation and future land-use management play important roles in the net greenhouse gas emissions of this frontier, suggesting that both should be considered in emissions policies. We find that avoided deforestation remains the best strategy for minimizing future greenhouse gas emissions from Mato Grosso.
Resumo:
Air transport has become a vital component of the global economy. However, greenhouse-gas emissions from this sector have a significant impact on global climate, being responsible for over 3.5% of all anthropogenic radiative forcing. Also, the accrued visibility of aircraft emissions greatly affects the public image of the industry. In this context, incentive-based regulations, in the form of price or quantity controls, can be envisaged as alternatives to mitigate these emissions. The use of environmental charges in air transport, and the inclusion of the sector in the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS), are considered under a range of scenarios. The impacts of these measures on demand are estimated, and results suggest that they are likely to be minimal-mainly due to the high willingness to pay for air transport. In particular, in the EU ETS scenario currently favoured by the EU, demand reductions are less than 2%. This may not be true in the longer run, for short trips, or if future caps become more stringent. Furthermore, given current estimates of the social Cost Of CO2 as well as typical EU ETS prices, supply-side abatement would be too costly to be encouraged by these policies in the short term. The magnitude of aviation CO2 emissions in the EU is estimated, both in physical and monetary terms; the results are consistent with Eurocontrol estimates and, for the EU-25, the total social cost of these emissions represents only 0.03% of the region`s GDP. It is concluded that the use of multisector policies, such as the EU ETS, is unsuitable for curbing emissions from air transport, and that stringent emission charges or an isolated ETS would be better instruments. However, the inclusion of aviation in the EU ETS has advantages under target-oriented post-2012 scenarios, such as policy-costs dilution, certainty in reductions, and flexibility in abatement allocation. This solution is also attractive to airlines, as it would improve their public image but require virtually no reduction of their own emissions, as they would be fully capable of passing on policy costs to their customers.
Resumo:
The representation of sustainability concerns in industrial forests management plans, in relation to environmental, social and economic aspects, involve a great amount of details when analyzing and understanding the interaction among these aspects to reduce possible future impacts. At the tactical and operational planning levels, methods based on generic assumptions usually provide non-realistic solutions, impairing the decision making process. This study is aimed at improving current operational harvesting planning techniques, through the development of a mixed integer goal programming model. This allows the evaluation of different scenarios, subject to environmental and supply constraints, increase of operational capacity, and the spatial consequences of dispatching harvest crews to certain distances over the evaluation period. As a result, a set of performance indicators was selected to evaluate all optimal solutions provided to different possible scenarios and combinations of these scenarios, and to compare these outcomes with the real results observed by the mill in the study case area. Results showed that it is possible to elaborate a linear programming model that adequately represents harvesting limitations, production aspects and environmental and supply constraints. The comparison involving the evaluated scenarios and the real observed results showed the advantage of using more holistic approaches and that it is possible to improve the quality of the planning recommendations using linear programming techniques.
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A dynamic systems simulation model of water resources was developed as a tool to help analyze alternatives to water resources management for the Piracicaba, Capivari and Jundiai River Water Basins (RB-PCJ), and used to run six 50-year simulations from 2004 to 2054. The model estimates water supply and demand, as well as contamination load by several consumers. Six runs were performed using a constant mean precipitation value, changing water supply and demand and different volumes diverted from RB-PCJ to RB-Alto Tiet. For the Business as Usual scenario, the Sustainability Index went from 0.44 in 2004 to 0.20 by 2054. The Water Sustainability Index changed from 74% in 2004 to 131% by 2054. The Falkenmark Index changed from 1,403 m(3) person (-aEuro parts per thousand 1) year (-aEuro parts per thousand 1) in 2004 to 734 m(3) person (-aEuro parts per thousand 1) year (-aEuro parts per thousand 1) by 2054. We concluded that sanitation is one of the major problems for the PCJ River Basins.
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Brazilian agriculture covers about one-third of the land area and is expected to expand further We assessed the compliance of present Brazilian agriculture with environmental legislation and identified challenges for agricultural development connected to this legislation We found (i) minor illegal land use in protected areas under public administration, (ii) a large deficit in legal reserves and protected riparian zones on private farmland, and large areas of unprotected natural vegetation in regions experiencing agriculture expansion Achieving full compliance with the environmental laws as they presently stand would require drastic changes in agricultural land use, where large agricultural areas are taken out of production and converted back to natural vegetation The outcome of a full compliance with environmental legislation might not be satisfactory due to leakage, where pristine unprotected areas become converted to compensate for lost production as current agricultural areas are reconverted to protected natural vegetation. Realizing the desired protection of biodiversity and natural vegetation, while expanding agriculture to meet food and biofuel demand, may require a new approach to environmental protection New legal and regulatory instruments and the establishment of alternative development models should be considered
Resumo:
The paper disputes two influential claims in the Romance Linguistics literature. The first is that the synthetic future tenses in spoken Western Romance are now rivalled, if not supplanted, as temporal functors by the more recently developed GO futures. The second is that these synthetic futures now have modal rather than temporal meanings in spoken Romance. These claims are seen as reflecting a universal cycle of diachronic change, in which verb forms originally expressing modal (or aspectual) values take on future temporal reference, becoming tenses. The new modal meanings supplant the temporal, which are then taken up by new forms. Challenges to this theory for French are raised on the basis of empirical evidence of two sorts. Positively, future tenses in spoken Romance continue to be used with temporal meaning. Negatively, evidence of modal meaning for these forms is lacking. The evidence comes froma corpora of spoken French, native speaker judgements and verb data from a daily broadsheet. Cumulatively, it points to the reverse of the claims noted above: the synthetic future in spoken French has temporal but little modal meaning.
Resumo:
The National Health and Medical Research Council has funded Professor Wayne Hall (University of Queensland) and Professor Simon Chapman (University of Sydney) for three years 2006-2008, to research aspects of the future of tobacco control, particularly in nations with advanced tobacco control programs like Australia. Dr Coral Gartner (UQ) and Ms Becky Freeman (USyd) are also working on the project. The University of Queensland's eSpace site provides links to papers and data appendices produced by the University of Queensland team on the project. Materials relevant to this project produced by the University of Sydney group are available at the link provided.