Multi index model - uma abordagem para aplicação ao mercado accionista em Portugal

O mercado accionista, de uma forma global, tem-se revelado nos últimos tempos uma das principais fontes de incentivo ao mercado de valores mobiliários. O seu impacto junto do público em geral é enorme e a sua importância para as empresas é vital. Interessa, então, perceber como é que a teoria financeira tem obordado a avaliação e a compreensão do processo de formação de uma cotação. Desde os anos 50 até aos dias de hoje, interessa perceber como é que os diferentes autores têm tratado esta abordagem e quais os resultados deste confronto. Interessa sobretudo perceber o abordogem de Stephen Ross e a teoria do arbitragem. Na sequência desta obordagem e com o aparecimento do Multi Index Model, passou a ser possível extimar com maior precisão a evolução da cotação, na medida em que esta estaria dependente de um vasto conjunto de variavéis, que abragem uma vasta área de influência. O contributo de Ross é por isso decisivo. No final interessa reter a melhor técnica e teoria, que defende os interesses do investidor. Face o isto resta, então, saber qual a melhor técnica estatística para proceder a estes estudos empíricos.

Comorbidity adjustment index for the international classification of diseases, 10

OBJECTIVE: To develop a Charlson-like comorbidity index based on clinical conditions and weights of the original Charlson comorbidity index. METHODS: Clinical conditions and weights were adapted from the International Classification of Diseases, 10th revision and applied to a single hospital admission diagnosis. The study included 3,733 patients over 18 years of age who were admitted to a public general hospital in the city of Rio de Janeiro, southeast Brazil, between Jan 2001 and Jan 2003. The index distribution was analyzed by gender, type of admission, blood transfusion, intensive care unit admission, age and length of hospital stay. Two logistic regression models were developed to predict in-hospital mortality including: a) the aforementioned variables and the risk-adjustment index (full model); and b) the risk-adjustment index and patient's age (reduced model). RESULTS: Of all patients analyzed, 22.3% had risk scores >1, and their mortality rate was 4.5% (66.0% of them had scores >1). Except for gender and type of admission, all variables were retained in the logistic regression. The models including the developed risk index had an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.86 (full model), and 0.76 (reduced model). Each unit increase in the risk score was associated with nearly 50% increase in the odds of in-hospital death. CONCLUSIONS: The risk index developed was able to effectively discriminate the odds of in-hospital death which can be useful when limited information is available from hospital databases.

Body mass index for predicting hyperglycemia and serum lipid changes in Brazilian adolescents

OBJECTIVE: To determine the best cut-offs of body mass index for identifying alterations of blood lipids and glucose in adolescents. METHODS: A probabilistic sample including 577 adolescent students aged 12-19 years in 2003 (210 males and 367 females) from state public schools in the city of Niterói, Southeastern Brazil, was studied. The Receiver Operating Characteristic curve was used to identify the best age-adjusted BMI cut-off for predicting high levels of serum total cholesterol (>150mg/dL), LDL-C (>100mg/dL), serum triglycerides (>100mg/dL), plasma glucose (>100mg/dL) and low levels of HDL-C (< 45mg/dL). Four references were used to calculate sensitivity and specificity of BMI cut-offs: one Brazilian, one international and two American. RESULTS: The most prevalent metabolic alterations (>50%) were: high total cholesterol and low HDL-C. BMI predicted high levels of triglycerides in males, high LDL-C in females, and high total cholesterol and the occurrence of three or more metabolic alterations in both males and females (areas under the curve range: 0.59 to 0.67), with low sensitivity (57%-66%) and low specificity (58%-66%). The best BMI cut-offs for this sample (20.3 kg/m² to 21.0 kg/m²) were lower than those proposed in the references studied. CONCLUSIONS: Although BMI values lower than the International cut-offs were better predictor of some metabolic abnormalities in Brazilian adolescents, overall BMI is not a good predictor of these abnormalities in this population.

Estimate of DMFT index using teeth most affected by dental caries in twelve-year-old children

The objective of the study was to develop regression models to describe the epidemiological profile of dental caries in 12-year-old children in an area of low prevalence of caries. Two distinct random probabilistic samples of schoolchildren (n=1,763) attending public and private schools in Piracicaba, Southeastern Brazil, were studied. Regression models were estimated as a function of the most affected teeth using data collected in 2005 and were validated using a 2001 database. The mean (SD) DMFT index was 1.7 (2.08) in 2001 and the regression equations estimated a DMFT index of 1.67 (1.98), which corresponds to 98.2% of the DMFT index in 2001. The study provided detailed data on the caries profile in 12-year-old children by using an updated analytical approach. Regression models can be an accurate and feasible method that can provide valuable information for the planning and evaluation of oral health services.

Desenvolvimento do método de Índice de Qualidade ("QIM-Quality Index Method") para as lapas (Patella candei e Patella aspera) e estudo das suas condições de transporte

Dissertação de Mestrado, Estudos Integrados dos Oceanos, 15 de Março de 2016, Universidade dos Açores.

O efeito de um programa de fisioterapia na estabilização do prematuro

O número de bebés que nascem prematuros tem vindo a aumentar. É indiscutível a importância dos avanços tecnológicos e da pesquisa nas Unidades de Cuidados Intensivos de Neonatologia (UCIN), sendo essencial o papel desempenhado pelos fisioterapeutas nos cuidados prestados a estes bebés. As suas potencialidades só se desenvolvem na medida em que o bebé encontra estimulação e posicionamento adequado. Realizou‑se um estudo piloto na UCIN do Centro Hospitalar Lisboa Norte (CHLN), no período de julho de 2011 a março de 2012, em que se pretendeu avaliar o efeito de um programa de fisioterapia na estabilização do prematuro. Este programa consistiu em posicionar o prematuro em decúbito dorsal, lateral direito e lateral esquerdo e decúbito ventral, permanecendo em cada posição 5 minutos. O objetivo foi avaliar, durante a permanência do bebé na UCIN, a alteração nos seguintes parâmetros: frequência cardíaca (FC) e saturação de oxigénio (SatO2), antes e depois do tratamento. A amostra por conveniência incluiu no estudo 30 bebés prematuros, sendo 13 do género feminino e 17 do género masculino, que obedeceram a critérios específicos de inclusão. Para verificar as variáveis fisiológicas FC e SatO2 foi utilizado um Oxímetro de Pulso BCI 3401. Verificou‑se que a FC diminui e a SatO2 aumentou entre a primeira avaliação e a segunda avaliação, para a amostra total, assim como para os sujeitos do género feminino e os sujeitos do género masculino, para α = 0,05 e valor p≤0,001. Contudo, a diferença entre as médias dos dois momentos de avaliação da FC e da SatO2, em função do género, não revelaram diferenças estatisticamente significativas. Em conclusão, o estudo sugere que o programa de fisioterapia promove a melhoria da SatO2 e diminuição da FC, promovendo uma melhoria da estabilização do prematuro.

Supporting learning through tagging systems

With the advent of Web 2.0, new kinds of tools became available, which are not seen as novel anymore but are widely used. For instance, according to Eurostat data, in 2010 32% of individuals aged 16 to 74 used the Internet to post messages to social media sites or instant messaging tools, ranging from 17% in Romania to 46% in Sweden (Eurostat, 2012). Web 2.0 applications have been used in technology-enhanced learning environments. Learning 2.0 is a concept that has been used to describe the use of social media for learning. Many Learning 2.0 initiatives have been launched by educational and training institutions in Europe. Web 2.0 applications have also been used for informal learning. Web 2.0 tools can be used in classrooms, virtual or not, not only to engage students but also to support collaborative activities. Many of these tools allow users to use tags to organize resources and facilitate their retrieval at a later date or time. The aim of this chapter is to describe how tagging has been used in systems that support formal or informal learning and to summarize the functionalities that are common to these systems. In addition, common and unusual tagging applications that have been used in some Learning Objects Repositories are analysed.

Ethernet goes real-time: a survey on research and technological developments

Ethernet is the most popular LAN technology. Its low price and robustness, resulting from its wide acceptance and deployment, has created an eagerness to expand its responsibilities to the factory-floor, where real-time requirements are to be fulfilled. However, it is difficult to build a real-time control network using Ethernet, because its MAC protocol, the 1-persistent CSMA/CD protocol with the BEB collision resolution algorithm, has unpredictable delay characteristics. Many anticipate that the recent technological advances in Ethernet such as the emerging Fast/Gigabit Ethernet, micro-segmentation and full-duplex operation using switches will also enable it to support time-critical applications. This technical report provides a comprehensive look at the unpredictability inherent to Ethernet and at recent technological advances towards real-time operation.

Power law analysis of financial index dynamics

Power law PL and fractional calculus are two faces of phenomena with long memory behavior. This paper applies PL description to analyze different periods of the business cycle. With such purpose the evolution of ten important stock market indices DAX, Dow Jones, NASDAQ, Nikkei, NYSE, S&P500, SSEC, HSI, TWII, and BSE over time is studied. An evolutionary algorithm is used for the fitting of the PL parameters. It is observed that the PL curve fitting constitutes a good tool for revealing the signal main characteristics leading to the emergence of the global financial dynamic evolution.

Evaluation of maternal and neonatal hospital care: quality index of completeness

OBJECTIVE Develop an index to evaluate the maternal and neonatal hospital care of the Brazilian Unified Health System.METHODS This descriptive cross-sectional study of national scope was based on the structure-process-outcome framework proposed by Donabedian and on comprehensive health care. Data from the Hospital Information System and the National Registry of Health Establishments were used. The maternal and neonatal network of Brazilian Unified Health System consisted of 3,400 hospitals that performed at least 12 deliveries in 2009 or whose number of deliveries represented 10.0% or more of the total admissions in 2009. Relevance and reliability were defined as criteria for the selection of variables. Simple and composite indicators and the index of completeness were constructed and evaluated, and the distribution of maternal and neonatal hospital care was assessed in different regions of the country.RESULTS A total of 40 variables were selected, from which 27 single indicators, five composite indicators, and the index of completeness of care were built. Composite indicators were constructed by grouping simple indicators and included the following variables: hospital size, level of complexity, delivery care practice, recommended hospital practice, and epidemiological practice. The index of completeness of care grouped the five variables and classified them in ascending order, thereby yielding five levels of completeness of maternal and neonatal hospital care: very low, low, intermediate, high, and very high. The hospital network was predominantly of small size and low complexity, with inadequate child delivery care and poor development of recommended and epidemiological practices. The index showed that more than 80.0% hospitals had a low index of completeness of care and that most qualified heath care services were concentrated in the more developed regions of the country.CONCLUSIONS The index of completeness proved to be of great value for monitoring the maternal and neonatal hospital care of Brazilian Unified Health System and indicated that the quality of health care was unsatisfactory. However, its application does not replace specific evaluations.

Effect of the exposure to maternal smoking during pregnancy and childhood on the body mass index until adolescence

OBJECTIVE Investigate the effect of exposure to smoking during pregnancy and early childhood on changes in the body mass index (BMI) from birth to adolescence.METHODS A population-based cohort of children (0-5 years old) from Cuiabá, Midwest Brazil, was assessed in 1999-2000 (n = 2,405). Between 2009 and 2011, the cohort was re-evaluated. Information about birth weight was obtained from medical records, and exposure to smoking during pregnancy and childhood was assessed at the first interview. Linear mixed effects models were used to estimate the association between exposure to maternal smoking during pregnancy and preschool age, and the body mass index of children at birth, childhood and adolescence.RESULTS Only 11.3% of the mothers reported smoking during pregnancy, but most of them (78.2%) also smoked during early childhood. Among mothers who smoked only during pregnancy (n = 59), 97.7% had smoked only in the first trimester. The changes in body mass index at birth and in childhood were similar for children exposed and those not exposed to maternal smoking. However, from childhood to adolescence the rate of change in the body mass index was higher among those exposed only during pregnancy than among those who were not exposed.CONCLUSIONS Exposure to smoking only during pregnancy, especially in the first trimester, seems to affect changes in the body mass index until adolescence, supporting guidelines that recommend women of childbearing age to stop smoking.

Application of robust fixed point transformations for technological operation of robots

A robot’s drive has to exert appropriate driving forces that can keep its arm and end effector at the proper position, velocity and acceleration, and simultaneously has to compensate for the effects of the contact forces arising between the tool and the workpiece depending on the needs of the actual technological operation. Balancing the effects of a priori unknown external disturbance forces and the inaccuracies of the available dynamic model of the robot is also important. Technological tasks requiring well prescribed end effector trajectories and contact forces simultaneously are challenging control problems that can be tackled in various manners.

A smart layer for remote laboratories

Commonly, when a weblab is developed to support remote experiments in sciences and engineering courses, a particular hardware/software architecture is implemented. However, the existence of several technological solutions to implement those architectures difficults the emergence of a standard, both at hardware and software levels. While particular solutions are adopted assuming that only qualified people may implement a weblab, the control of the physical space and the power consumption are often forgotten. Since controlling these two previous aspects may increase the quality of the weblab hosting the remote experiments, this paper proposes the useof a new layer implemented by a domotic system bus with several devices (e.g. lights, power sockets, temperature sensors, and others) able to be controlled through the Internet. We also provide a brief proof-of-concept in the form of a weblab equipped with a simple domotic system usually implemented in smart houses. The added value to the remote experiment hosted at the weblab is also identified in terms of power savings and environment conditions.

Evaluation of the influence of testing parameters on the melt flow index of thermoplastics

The main goals of the present work are the evaluation of the influence of several variables and test parameters on the melt flow index (MFI) of thermoplastics, and the determination of the uncertainty associated with the measurements. To evaluate the influence of test parameters on the measurement of MFI the design of experiments (DOE) approach has been used. The uncertainty has been calculated using a "bottom-up" approach given in the "Guide to the Expression of the Uncertainty of Measurement" (GUM). Since an analytical expression relating the output response (MFI) with input parameters does not exist, it has been necessary to build mathematical models by adjusting the experimental observations of the response variable in accordance with each input parameter. Subsequently, the determination of the uncertainty associated with the measurement of MFI has been performed by applying the law of propagation of uncertainty to the values of uncertainty of the input parameters. Finally, the activation energy (Ea) of the melt flow at around 200 degrees C and the respective uncertainty have also been determined.

Uma metaheurística para a programação de projectos com multi-modos e recursos limitados

Este artigo apresenta uma nova abordagem (MM-GAV-FBI), aplicável ao problema da programação de projectos com restrições de recursos e vários modos de execução por actividade, problema conhecido na literatura anglo-saxónica por MRCPSP. Cada projecto tem um conjunto de actividades com precedências tecnológicas definidas e um conjunto de recursos limitados, sendo que cada actividade pode ter mais do que um modo de realização. A programação dos projectos é realizada com recurso a um esquema de geração de planos (do inglês Schedule Generation Scheme - SGS) integrado com uma metaheurística. A metaheurística é baseada no paradigma dos algoritmos genéticos. As prioridades das actividades são obtidas a partir de um algoritmo genético. A representação cromossómica utilizada baseia-se em chaves aleatórias. O SGS gera planos não-atrasados. Após a obtenção de uma solução é aplicada uma melhoria local. O objectivo da abordagem é encontrar o melhor plano (planning), ou seja, o plano que tenha a menor duração temporal possível, satisfazendo as precedências das actividades e as restrições de recursos. A abordagem proposta é testada num conjunto de problemas retirados da literatura da especialidade e os resultados computacionais são comparados com outras abordagens. Os resultados computacionais validam o bom desempenho da abordagem, não apenas em termos de qualidade da solução, mas também em termos de tempo útil.