Use of Poisson spatiotemporal regression models for the Brazilian Amazon Forest: malaria count data

INTRODUCTION: Malaria is a serious problem in the Brazilian Amazon region, and the detection of possible risk factors could be of great interest for public health authorities. The objective of this article was to investigate the association between environmental variables and the yearly registers of malaria in the Amazon region using Bayesian spatiotemporal methods. METHODS: We used Poisson spatiotemporal regression models to analyze the Brazilian Amazon forest malaria count for the period from 1999 to 2008. In this study, we included some covariates that could be important in the yearly prediction of malaria, such as deforestation rate. We obtained the inferences using a Bayesian approach and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods to simulate samples for the joint posterior distribution of interest. The discrimination of different models was also discussed. RESULTS: The model proposed here suggests that deforestation rate, the number of inhabitants per km², and the human development index (HDI) are important in the prediction of malaria cases. CONCLUSIONS: It is possible to conclude that human development, population growth, deforestation, and their associated ecological alterations are conducive to increasing malaria risk. We conclude that the use of Poisson regression models that capture the spatial and temporal effects under the Bayesian paradigm is a good strategy for modeling malaria counts.

Echocardiographic parameters associated with pulmonary congestion in outpatients with Chagas' cardiomyopathy and non-chagasic cardiomyopathy

INTRODUCTION: Despite significant left ventricular (LV) systolic dysfunction and cardiomegaly, pulmonary congestion does not seem to be a major finding in Chagas' cardiomyopathy (CC). This study sought to identify echocardiographic parameters associated with pulmonary congestion in CC and in dilated cardiomyopathy of other etiologies, such as non-CC (NCC), and to compare pulmonary venous hypertension between the two entities. METHODS: A total of 130 consecutive patients with CC and NCC, with similar echocardiographic characteristics, were assessed using Doppler echocardiography and chest radiography. Pulmonary venous vessel abnormalities were graded using a previously described pulmonary congestion score, and this score was compared with Doppler echocardiographic parameters. RESULTS: NCC patients were older than CC patients (62.4 ± 13.5 × 47.8 ± 11.2, p = 0.00), and there were more male subjects in the CC group (66.2% × 58.5%, p = 0.4). Pulmonary venous hypertension was present in 41 patients in the CC group (63.1%) and in 63 (96.9%) in the NCC group (p = 0.0), the mean lung congestion score being 3.2 ± 2.3 and 5.9 ± 2.6 (p = 0.0), respectively. On linear regression multivariate analysis, the E/e' ratio (β = 0.13; p = 0.0), LV diastolic diameter (β = 0.06; p = 0.06), left atrial diameter (β = 0.51; p = 0.08), and right ventricular (RV) end-diastolic diameter (β = 0.02; p = 0.48) were the variables that correlated with pulmonary congestion in both groups. CONCLUSIONS: Pulmonary congestion was less significant in patients with CC. The degree of LV of systolic and diastolic dysfunction and the RV diameter correlated with pulmonary congestion in both groups. The E/e' ratio was the hallmark of pulmonary congestion in both groups.

Immunovirological parameters and cytokines in HIV infection

Although modern combined antiretroviral therapies (cART) result in lower morbidity and mortality and a visible improvement of clinical and laboratory parameters in HIV-infected, it is known that their long-term use contributes to appearance of the many events unrelated to AIDS such as cardiovascular diseases, cancer and osteoporosis, comorbidities which have been proposed as some of the most important that deprive the majority of infected to present an even better prognosis. This is because even with a decrease in inflammation and immune activation after drug intervention to the patient, these parameters remain higher than those shown by healthy individuals and the imbalance of cytokine profiles also persists. Therefore, evaluations of other biomarkers in clinical practice are needed to complement the exams already carried out routinely and allow more effective monitoring of HIV patients. This review aims to investigate the role of cytokines as potential markers showing studies on their behavior in various stages of HIV infection, with or without cART.

An analysis of the spatiotemporal distribution of American cutaneous leishmaniasis in counties located along road and railway corridors in the State of Maranhao, Brazil

Introduction The incidence of American cutaneous leishmaniasis (ACL) is increasing in Latin America, especially in Brazil, where 256,587 cases were confirmed in the last decade. Methods This study used a Bayesian model to examine the spatial and temporal distribution of ACL cases between 2000 and 2009 in 61 counties of State of Maranhão located along the three main road and railway corridors. Results During the study period, 13,818 cases of ACL were recorded. There was a significant decrease in the incidence of ACL in the ten study years. The recorded incidence rate ranged from 7.36 to 241.45 per 100,000 inhabitants. The relative risk increased in 77% of the counties, decreased in 18% and was maintained in only five counties. Conclusions Although there was a decreased incidence of the disease, ACL was present in all of the examined municipalities, thus maintaining the risk of contracting this illness.

Sustainable urban planning: parameters to the operational process

In modern society, energy consumption and respect for the environment have become essential aspects of urban planning. The rising demand for alternative sources of energy, coupled with the decline in the construction sector and material usage, gives the idea that the thinking on modern cities, where attention is given to reduced energy consumption, savings, waste recycling and respect for the surrounding environment, is being put into practice. If we examine development of the city over recent centuries, by means of the theories of the most famous and influential urban planners, it is possible to identify the major problems caused by this type of planning. For this reason, in recent urban planning the use of systems of indicators that evaluate and certify land environmentally and energetically guides the master plan toward a more efficient city model. In addition the indicators are targeted on key factors determined by the commissioner or the opportunities the territory itself provides. Due the complexity of the environmental mechanics, the process of design and urban planning has become a challenging issue. The introduction of the indicators system has made it possible to register the life of the process, with a spiral route that allows the design itself to be refined. The aim of this study, built around the creation of a system of urban sustainability indicators that will evaluate highly eco-friendly cities, is to develop a certification system for cities or portions of them. The system will be upgradeable and objective, will employ real data and will be concerned with energy production and consumption.

Temporal, spatial and spatiotemporal analysis of the occurrence of visceral leishmaniasis in humans in the City of Birigui, State of São Paulo, from 1999 to 2012

Introduction In 1999, Birigui and Araçatuba were the first municipalities in the State of São Paulo to present autochthonous cases of visceral leishmaniasis in humans (VLH). The aim of this study was to describe the temporal, spatial and spatiotemporal behaviors of VLH in Birigui. Methods Secondary data were obtained from the Notifiable Diseases Information System from 1999 to 2012. The incidence, mortality and case fatality rates by sex and age were calculated. The cases of VLH were geocoded and grouped according to census tracts. Local empirical Bayesian incidence rates were calculated. The existence of spatial and spatiotemporal clusters was investigated using SaTScan software. Results There were 156 confirmed cases of autochthonous VLH. The incidence rate was higher in the 0-4-year-old children, and the mortality and case fatality rates were higher in people aged 60 years and older. The peaks of incidence occurred in 2006 and 2011. The Bayesian rates identified the presence of VLH in all of the census tracts in the municipality; however, spatial and spatiotemporal clusters were found in the central area of the municipality. Conclusions Birigui, located in the Araçatuba region, has recently experienced increasing numbers of VLH cases; this increase is contrary to the behavior observed over the entire region, which has shown a decreasing trend in the number of VLH cases. The observations that the highest incidence is in children 0-4 years old and the highest mortality is in people 60 years and older are in agreement with the expected patterns of VLH.

Spatiotemporal analysis of reported cases of acute Chagas disease in the State of Pernambuco, Brazil, from 2002 to 2013

INTRODUCTION: Control strategies to eliminate the transmission of Chagas disease by insect vectors have significantly decreased the number of reported acute cases in Brazil. However, data regarding the incidence and distribution of acute Chagas disease cases in the State of Pernambuco are unavailable in the literature. METHODS: A geographical information system was used to delineate the spatiotemporal distribution profile of the cases from 2002 to 2013 in 185 municipalities of Pernambuco based on the municipality where notification occurred. The results were presented in digital maps generated by the TerraView software (INPE). RESULTS: A total of 302 cases of acute disease were recorded in 37.8% of the municipalities, for a total of 0.13 cases per 1,000,000 inhabitants per year. Out of the 302 cases, 99.3% were reported between 2002 and 2006. The most affected municipalities were Carnaubeira da Penha, Mirandiba and Terra Nova. The risk maps showed a significant decrease in the number of notifications and a concentration of cases in the Midwest region. CONCLUSIONS: This study highlights a significant decrease in new cases of acute Chagas disease in Pernambuco starting in 2006 when Brazil received an international certification for the interruption of vectorial transmission by Triatoma infestans. However, control strategies should still be encouraged because other triatomine species can also transmit the parasite; moreover, other transmission modes must not be neglected.

Exploring Literary Landscapes: From Texts to Spatiotemporal Analysis through Collaborative Work and GIS

This article argues that the study of literary representations of landscapes can be aided and enriched by the application of digital geographic technologies. As an example, the article focuses on the methods and preliminary findings of LITESCAPE.PT—Atlas of Literary Landscapes of Mainland Portugal, an on-going project that aims to study literary representations of mainland Portugal and to explore their connections with social and environmental realities both in the past and in the present. LITESCAPE.PT integrates traditional reading practices and ‘distant reading’ approaches, along with collaborative work, relational databases, and geographic information systems (GIS) in order to classify and analyse excerpts from 350 works of Portuguese literature according to a set of ecological, socioeconomic, temporal and cultural themes. As we argue herein this combination of qualitative and quantitative methods—itself a response to the difficulty of obtaining external funding—can lead to (a) increased productivity, (b) the pursuit of new research goals, and (c) the creation of new knowledge about natural and cultural history. As proof of concept, the article presents two initial outcomes of the LITESCAPE.PT project: a case study documenting the evolving literary geography of Lisbon and a case study exploring the representation of wolves in Portuguese literature.

Control of a white organic light emitting diode’s emission parameters using a single doped RGB active layer

White Color tuning is an attractive feature that Organic Light Emitting Diodes (OLEDs) offer. Up until now, there hasn’t been any report that mix both color tuning abilities with device stability. In this work, White OLEDs (W-OLEDs) based on a single RGB blend composed of a blue emitting N,N′-Di(1-naphthyl)-N,N′-diphenyl-(1,1′-biphenyl)-4,4′-diamine (NPB) doped with a green emitting Coumarin-153 and a red emitting 4-(Dicyanomethylene)-2-methyl-6-(4-dimethylaminostyryl)-4H-pyran (DCM1) dyes were produced. The final device structure was ITO/Blend/Bathocuproine (BCP)/ Tris(8-hydroxyquinolinato)aluminium (Alq3)/Al with an emission area of 0.25 cm2. The effects of the changing in DCM1’s concentration (from 0.5% to 1% wt.) allowed a tuning in the final white color resulting in devices capable of emitting a wide range of tunes – from cool to warm – while also keeping a low device complexity and a high stabilitty. Moreover, an explanation on the optoelectrical behavior of the device is presented. The best electroluminescense (EL) points toward 160 cd/m2 of brightness and 1.1 cd/A of efficiency, both prompted to being enhanced. An Impedance Spectroscopy (IS) analysis allowed to study both the effects of BCP as a Hole Blocking Layer and as an aging probe of the device. Finally, as a proof of concept, the emission was increased 9 and 64 times proving this structure can be effectively applied for general lighting.

Spatial and spatiotemporal occurrence of human visceral leishmaniasis in Adamantina, State of São Paulo, Brazil

Abstract: INTRODUCTION : Several municipalities of the Western region of the State of São Paulo have been affected by human visceral leishmaniasis (HVL), including the City of Adamantina, where the first autochthonous cases occurred in 2004. Therefore, this study aimed to describe the spatial and spatiotemporal occurrence of HVL in Adamantina. METHODS : Secondary data regarding the occurrence of HVL in Adamantina between 2004 and 2011 were used. Incidence, mortality, and case fatality rates were calculated. We used local empirical Bayesian incidence rates to represent the occurrence of the disease in the census sector of the city. The existence of spatial and spatiotemporal clusters of cases was evaluated using scan statistics. In situ observation was performed to assess the socioeconomic and environmental characteristics of the areas with medium and high incidences. RESULTS : Adamantina reported cases in 70% of its census sectors. No differences were observed between sexes. The group aged 0-4 years presented the highest incidence and mortality rates, and the group aged 40-59 years presented the highest fatality rate. We detected a spatiotemporal cluster, which coincided with the commencement of the endemic in the city. CONCLUSIONS : The individuals most affected by the disease were children. The disease was present in areas with better and worse socioeconomic conditions. The use of spatial analysis techniques was important to achieve the study objectives.

Tensile properties of polymer repair materials - effect of test parameters

In this research, five types of polymer repair materials were selected for investigation of the influence of sample shape, deformation rate and test temperature on the mechanical properties determined with an uniaxial tensile test. The results showed the clear effect of measurement conditions on tensile strength, elongation and modulus of elasticity. The highest tensile strength and modulus of elasticity were exhibited by epoxy resin for the filling of concrete cracks, which achieved 1% elongation. The lowest coefficient of dispersion characterized the results of tensile test carried out using dumbbell samples at a deformation rate of 50 mm/min. The effect of temperature varied with the material type.

The relationship between stem vessel parameters and the development of strata in the early stages of secondary forest succession in Amazonia

In order to compare the development of strata in the early stages of secondary forest succession with vessel parameters of the tree species, a forest inventory was carried out in 4-year (Q1: 48 m2), 11-year (Q2: 400 m2) and 20-year (Q3: 400 m2) forests and vessel parameters were investigated from stem cross sections of 18 species obtained in Q2. Thirty three species (21 families), 77 species (35 families), 39 species (20 families) were found in Ql, Q2, Q3, respectively. The percentage of dead individuals, dead stems and the percentage of individuals with multiple stems increased with time after clear cutting. Also, the total D2H of Q3 was 26.1 times that of Q1, and the development of strata started in Q2 and Q3. The image analysis of vessel size, area and number of vessels revealed that species which reach the forest canopy had a large D2H value, vessel diameter and area, while species which remain near the forest floor had smaller ones. Poecilanthe effusa (Huber) Ducke is an example of the latter case, with a large number of individuals and abundant sprouting of new stems from stumps, but with high mortality.

Evaluation of seismic vulnerability assessment parameters for portuguese vernacular constructions with nonlinear numerical analysis

Considering that vernacular architecture may bear important lessons on hazard mitigation and that well-constructed examples showing traditional seismic resistant features can present far less vulnerability than expected, this study aims at understanding the resisting mechanisms and seismic behavior of vernacular buildings through detailed finite element modeling and nonlinear static (pushover) analysis. This paper focuses specifically on a type of vernacular rammed earth constructions found in the Portuguese region of Alentejo. Several rammed earth constructions found in the region were selected and studied in terms of dimensions, architectural layout, structural solutions, construction materials and detailing and, as a result, a reference model was built, which intends to be a simplified representative example of these constructions, gathering the most common characteristics. Different parameters that may affect the seismic response of this type of vernacular constructions have been identified and a numerical parametric study was defined aiming at evaluating and quantifying their influence in the seismic behavior of this type of vernacular buildings. This paper is part of an ongoing research which includes the development of a simplified methodology for assessing the seismic vulnerability of vernacular buildings, based on vulnerability index evaluation methods.

Tunnel engineering – influence of the type and the quantity of measurements in the back analysis of geomechanical parameters

The monitoring data collected during tunnel excavation can be used in inverse analysis procedures in order to identify more realistic geomechanical parameters that can increase the knowledge about the interested formations. These more realistic parameters can be used in real time to adapt the project to the real structure in situ behaviour. However, monitoring plans are normally designed for safety assessment and not especially for the purpose of inverse analysis. In fact, there is a lack of knowledge about what types and quantity of measurements are needed to succeed in identifying the parameters of interest. Also, the optimisation algorithm chosen for the identification procedure may be important for this matter. In this work, this problem is addressed using a theoretical case with which a thorough parametric study was carried out using two optimisation algorithms based on different calculation paradigms, namely a conventional gradient-based algorithm and an evolution strategy algorithm. Calculations were carried for different sets of parameters to identify several combinations of types and amount of monitoring data. The results clearly show the high importance of the available monitoring data and the chosen algorithm for the success rate of the inverse analysis process.

The influence of climatic parameters in the haematophagic daily activity of Cerqueirellum argentiscutum (Shelley & Luna Dias) (Diptera: Simuliidae) in Amazonas, Brazil

We studied the influence of climatic parameters in the daily haematophagic activity of Cerqueirellum argentiscutum from September/1999 to August/2000. The bite activity observed was different according to the annual rain precipitation (dry and rainy seasons). Humidity and temperature were the factors that most influenced it in both periods. During the dry season, it was greater in the beginning of the morning, showing a positive association with the humidity. However, during the rainy season, it was negatively related to that same factor. When wind speed was higher than 10 Km.h-1, it was reduced abruptly. Light intensity, atmospheric pressure and cloudiness seemed to act as secondary factors in the daily abundance of C. argentiscutum.