Can infant lung function predict respiratory morbidity during the first year of life in preterm infants?

Compared with term-born infants, preterm infants have increased respiratory morbidity in the first year of life. We investigated whether lung function tests performed near term predict subsequent respiratory morbidity during the first year of life and compared this to standard clinical parameters in preterms.The prospective birth cohort included randomly selected preterm infants with and without bronchopulmonary dysplasia. Lung function (tidal breathing and multiple-breath washout) was measured at 44 weeks post-menstrual age during natural sleep. We assessed respiratory morbidity (wheeze, hospitalisation, inhalation and home oxygen therapy) after 1 year using a standardised questionnaire. We first assessed the association between lung function and subsequent respiratory morbidity. Secondly, we compared the predictive power of standard clinical predictors with and without lung function data.In 166 preterm infants, tidal volume, time to peak tidal expiratory flow/expiratory time ratio and respiratory rate were significantly associated with subsequent wheeze. In comparison with standard clinical predictors, lung function did not improve the prediction of later respiratory morbidity in an individual child.Although associated with later wheeze, noninvasive infant lung function shows large physiological variability and does not add to clinically relevant risk prediction for subsequent respiratory morbidity in an individual preterm.

Differential aspects of memory self-evaluation in old and very old people

The aim of this paper was to examine age-related changes and gender differences in memory self-evaluation in old people and to examine the predictive power of objective memory performance and of personality variables (neuroticism and extraversion) on memory self-evaluation. In a cross-sectional study, 301 not institutionalized people aged 65± 94, 207 male and 94 female, were tested on three parameters. Subjective memory evaluation was operationalized with three one-item ratings: temporal comparison, social comparison, situation-speci® c memory self-evaluation just after performing a memory test. Objective memory assessment (free recall) used a computerized test. Personality assessment included the two main sub-scales `extraversion’ and `neuroticism’ from the Freiburger PersoÈ nlichkeits-Inventar.The results shaved that persons of all age groups have a realistic appraisal of their age-related memory decline.No gender effects were found for any of the three forms of memory self-evaluation. The relationship between objective memory performance, personality variables and memory self-evaluation however depends on age and gender. Our results show that objective memory performance is predictive for memory self-evaluation in men aged >75 years, whereas in men <75 neuroticism is the only signi® cant predictor.Men of the older cohort seem to have adapted to the age-related memory decline whereas the young old are still coping with the ongoing changes. In women of both age groups the objective memory performance is the only and strong predictor of memory self-evaluation. Our results suggest that gender-speci® c educational socialization might be the reason for these differences.

Hide-and-seek in vegetation: time-to-detection is an efficient design for estimating detectability and occurrence

Ecology and conservation require reliable data on the occurrence of animals and plants. A major source of bias is imperfect detection, which, however, can be corrected for by estimation of detectability. In traditional occupancy models, this requires repeat or multi-observer surveys. Recently, time-to-detection models have been developed as a cost-effective alternative, which requires no repeat surveys and hence costs could be halved. We compared the efficiency and reliability of time-to-detection and traditional occupancy models under varying survey effort. Two observers independently searched for 17 plant species in 44100m(2) Swiss grassland quadrats and recorded the time-to-detection for each species, enabling detectability to be estimated with both time-to-detection and traditional occupancy models. In addition, we gauged the relative influence on detectability of species, observer, plant height and two measures of abundance (cover and frequency). Estimates of detectability and occupancy under both models were very similar. Rare species were more likely to be overlooked; detectability was strongly affected by abundance. As a measure of abundance, frequency outperformed cover in its predictive power. The two observers differed significantly in their detection ability. Time-to-detection models were as accurate as traditional occupancy models, but their data easier to obtain; thus they provide a cost-effective alternative to traditional occupancy models for detection-corrected estimation of occurrence.

How do different aspects of self-regulation predict successful adaptation to school?

Self-regulation plays an important role in successful adaptation to preschool and school contexts as well as in later academic achievement. The current study relates different aspects of self-regulation such as temperamental effortful control and executive functions (updating, inhibition, and shifting) to different aspects of adaptation to school such as learning-related behavior, school grades, and performance in standardized achievement tests. The relationship between executive functions/effortful control and academic achievement has been established in previous studies; however, little is known about their unique contributions to different aspects of adaptation to school and the interplay of these factors in young school children. Results of a 1-year longitudinal study (N = 459) revealed that unique contributions of effortful control (parental report) to school grades were fully mediated by children’s learning-related behavior. On the other hand, the unique contributions of executive functions (performance on tasks) to school grades were only partially mediated by children’s learning-related behavior. Moreover, executive functions predicted performance in standardized achievement tests exclusively, with comparable predictive power for mathematical and reading/writing skills. Controlling for fluid intelligence did not change the pattern of prediction substantially, and fluid intelligence did not explain any variance above that of the two included aspects of self-regulation. Although effortful control and executive functions were not significantly related to each other, both aspects of self-regulation were shown to be important for fostering early learning and good classroom adjustment in children around transition to school.

Who is honest and why: Baseline activation in anterior insula predicts inter-individual differences in deceptive behavior

Humans engage in deceptive behavior that negatively affects others. The propensity to deceive is,however, characterized by vast inter-individual heterogeneity that is poorly understood. Attempts to investigate the origins of this heterogeneity have so far mainly relied on subjective measures and have shown little predictive power. Here, we used resting electroencephalography to measure objective and stable individual differences in neural baseline activation in combination with an ecologically valid deception paradigm. Results showed that task-independent baseline activation in the anterior insula, a brain area implicated in mapping internal bodily states and in representing emotional arousal and consciousfeelings, predicts individuals’ propensity for deceptive behavior. The higher the neural baseline activation in this area is, the lower individuals’ propensity to deceive. Moreover, results provide evidence that high baseline activation in the anterior insula is associated with negative affect and dispositional tendencies to avoid aversive emotional situations. These results provide converging neural and psychological evidence that individuals might avoid a deceptive act due to a highly active negative emotional system which would make a deceptive act too stressful and bothersome.

Relationship of individual scapular anatomy and degenerative rotator cuff tears.

BACKGROUND The etiology of rotator cuff disease is age related, as documented by prevalence data. Despite conflicting results, growing evidence suggests that distinct scapular morphologies may accelerate the underlying degenerative process. The purpose of the present study was to evaluate the predictive power of 5 commonly used radiologic parameters of scapular morphology to discriminate between patients with intact rotator cuff tendons and those with torn rotator cuff tendons. METHODS A pre hoc power analysis was performed to determine the sample size. Two independent readers measured the acromion index, lateral acromion angle, and critical shoulder angle on standardized anteroposterior radiographs. In addition, the acromial morphology according to Bigliani and the acromial slope were determined on true outlet views. Measurements were performed in 51 consecutive patients with documented degenerative rotator cuff tears and in an age- and sex-matched control group of 51 patients with intact rotator cuff tendons. Receiver operating characteristic analyses were performed to determine cutoff values and to assess the sensitivity and specificity of each parameter. RESULTS Patients with degenerative rotator cuff tears demonstrated significantly higher acromion indices, smaller lateral acromion angles, and larger critical shoulder angles than patients with intact rotator cuffs. However, no difference was found between the acromial morphology according to Bigliani and the acromial slope. With an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.855 and an odds ratio of 10.8, the critical shoulder angle represented the strongest predictor for the presence of a rotator cuff tear. CONCLUSION The acromion index, lateral acromion angle, and critical shoulder angle accurately predict the presence of degenerative rotator cuff tears.

Evolving biomarkers improve prediction of long-term mortality in patients with stable coronary artery disease: the BIO-VILCAD score.

OBJECTIVE Algorithms to predict the future long-term risk of patients with stable coronary artery disease (CAD) are rare. The VIenna and Ludwigshafen CAD (VILCAD) risk score was one of the first scores specifically tailored for this clinically important patient population. The aim of this study was to refine risk prediction in stable CAD creating a new prediction model encompassing various pathophysiological pathways. Therefore, we assessed the predictive power of 135 novel biomarkers for long-term mortality in patients with stable CAD. DESIGN, SETTING AND SUBJECTS We included 1275 patients with stable CAD from the LUdwigshafen RIsk and Cardiovascular health study with a median follow-up of 9.8 years to investigate whether the predictive power of the VILCAD score could be improved by the addition of novel biomarkers. Additional biomarkers were selected in a bootstrapping procedure based on Cox regression to determine the most informative predictors of mortality. RESULTS The final multivariable model encompassed nine clinical and biochemical markers: age, sex, left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF), heart rate, N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide, cystatin C, renin, 25OH-vitamin D3 and haemoglobin A1c. The extended VILCAD biomarker score achieved a significantly improved C-statistic (0.78 vs. 0.73; P = 0.035) and net reclassification index (14.9%; P < 0.001) compared to the original VILCAD score. Omitting LVEF, which might not be readily measureable in clinical practice, slightly reduced the accuracy of the new BIO-VILCAD score but still significantly improved risk classification (net reclassification improvement 12.5%; P < 0.001). CONCLUSION The VILCAD biomarker score based on routine parameters complemented by novel biomarkers outperforms previous risk algorithms and allows more accurate classification of patients with stable CAD, enabling physicians to choose more personalized treatment regimens for their patients.

Illegitimate Tasks and Sleep Quality: An Ambulatory Study

The current study investigated the short-term effect of illegitimate tasks on sleep quality, assessed by actigraphy. Seventy-six employees of different service jobs participated in a 2-week data collection. Data were analysed by way of multilevel analyses. As predicted, illegitimate tasks were positively related to sleep fragmentation and sleep-onset latency, but not to sleep efficiency and not to sleep duration. Time pressure, social stressors at work and at home, and the value of the dependent variable from the previous day were controlled. Results confirm the predictive power of illegitimate tasks for a variable that can be considered crucial in the development of long-term outcomes of daily experiences.

The role of climate-driven chemical weathering on soil production

Climate plays an important role in controlling rates of weathering and weathered regolith production. Regolith production functions, however, seldom take climate parameters into account. Based on a climate-dependent weathered regolith production model, at low denudation rates, relative regolith thicknesses are less sensitive to changes in precipitation rates, while at high denudation rates, small changes in climatic parameters can result in complete stripping of hillslopes. This pattern is compounded by the long residence times and system response times associated with low denudation rates, and vice versa. As others have shown, the transition between regolith-mantled and bedrock slopes is dependent on the ratio of denudation to production. Here, we further suggest that this is itself a function of precipitation rate and temperature. We suggest that climatic parameters can be easily incorporated into existing soil production models and that such additions improve the predictive power of soil production models. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Conformational diversity versus nucleic acid triplex stability, a combinatorial study

The stability of a triple helix formed between a DNA duplex and an incoming oligonucleotide strand strongly depends on the solvent conditions and on intrinsic chemical and conformational factors. Attempts to increase triple helix stability in the past included chemical modification of the backbone, sugar ring, and bases in the third strand. However, the predictive power of such modifications is still rather poor. We therefore developed a method that allows for rapid screening of conformationally diverse third strand oligonucleotides for triplex stability in the parallel pairing motif to a given DNA double helix sequence. Combinatorial libraries of oligonucleotides of the requisite (fixed) base composition and length that vary in their sugar unit (ribose or deoxyribose) at each position were generated. After affinity chromatography against their corresponding immobilized DNA target duplex, utilizing a temperature gradient as the selection criterion, the oligonucleotides forming the most stable triple helices were selected and characterized by physicochemical methods. Thus, a series of oligonucleotides were identified that allowed us to define basic rules for triple helix stability in this conformationally diverse system. It was found that ribocytidines in the third strand increase triplex stability relative to deoxyribocytidines independently of the neighboring bases and position along the strand. However, remarkable sequence-dependent differences in stability were found for (deoxy)thymidines and uridines

Marital stability, satisfaction and well-being in old age: Variability and continuity in long-term continuously married older persons

Objectives: Recent research shows that the well-documented positive effects of marital stability on well-being and health outcomes are conditional upon the quality of marriage. To date, few studies have explored the relationship between marital satisfaction, well-being and health among very long-term married individuals. This study aims at identifying groups of long-term married persons with respect to marital satisfaction and comparing them longitudinally concerning their well-being outcomes, marital stressors, personality and socio-demographic variables. Method: Data are derived from a survey (data collection 2012 and 2014) with 374 continuously married individuals at wave 1 (mean age: 74.2 years, length of marriage: 49.2 years) and 252 at wave 2. Cluster analyses were performed comparing the clusters with regard to various well-being outcomes. The predictive power of cluster affiliation and various predictors at wave 1 on well-being outcomes at wave 2 was tested using regression analyses. Results: Two groups were identified, one happily the other unhappily married, with the happily married scoring higher on all well-being and health outcomes. Regression analyses revealed that group affiliation at wave 1 was not any longer predictive of health, emotional loneliness and hopelessness two years later, when taking into account socio-demographic variables, psychological resilience and marital strain, whereas it remained an important predictor of life satisfaction and social loneliness. Conclusion: Marital satisfaction is associated with health and well-being in older couples over time, whereas psychological resilience and marital strain are major predictors explaining the variance of these outcomes.

Validation of the Valve Academic Research Consortium Bleeding Definition in Patients With Severe Aortic Stenosis Undergoing Transcatheter Aortic Valve Implantation.

BACKGROUND The Valve Academic Research Consortium (VARC) has proposed a standardized definition of bleeding in patients undergoing transcatheter aortic valve interventions (TAVI). The VARC bleeding definition has not been validated or compared to other established bleeding definitions so far. Thus, we aimed to investigate the impact of bleeding and compare the predictivity of VARC bleeding events with established bleeding definitions. METHODS AND RESULTS Between August 2007 and April 2012, 489 consecutive patients with severe aortic stenosis were included into the Bern-TAVI-Registry. Every bleeding complication was adjudicated according to the definitions of VARC, BARC, TIMI, and GUSTO. Periprocedural blood loss was added to the definition of VARC, providing a modified VARC definition. A total of 152 bleeding events were observed during the index hospitalization. Bleeding severity according to VARC was associated with a gradual increase in mortality, which was comparable to the BARC, TIMI, GUSTO, and the modified VARC classifications. The predictive precision of a multivariable model for mortality at 30 days was significantly improved by adding the most serious bleeding of VARC (area under the curve [AUC], 0.773; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.706 to 0.839), BARC (AUC, 0.776; 95% CI, 0.694 to 0.857), TIMI (AUC, 0.768; 95% CI, 0.692 to 0.844), and GUSTO (AUC, 0.791; 95% CI, 0.714 to 0.869), with the modified VARC definition resulting in the best predictivity (AUC, 0.814; 95% CI, 0.759 to 0.870). CONCLUSIONS The VARC bleeding definition offers a severity stratification that is associated with a gradual increase in mortality and prognostic information comparable to established bleeding definitions. Adding the information of periprocedural blood loss to VARC may increase the sensitivity and the predictive power of this classification.

Rachegefühle und posttraumatische Belastungsreaktionen bei Opfern von Gewalttaten

Theoretischer Hintergrund: Beschreibungen der posttraumatischen Belastungsstörung (PTB) besagen, dass Personen mit PTB häufig starke Rachegefühle erleben. Es besteht jedoch ein Mangel an bestätigenden empirischen Untersuchungen. Fragestellung: Der Zusammenhang zwischen Rachegefühlen und posttraumatischen Belastungsreaktionen wird untersucht. Methode: Die Daten wurden mittels Selbstbeurteilung bei 174 Opfern von Gewalttaten erfasst. Zur Messung der Belastungsreaktionen wurde die Impact of Event-Skala – revidierte Version (IES-R) eingesetzt. Ergebnisse: Rachegefühle korrelieren bedeutsam mit posttraumatischer Intrusion und Übererregung, jedoch nicht mit Vermeidung. Rachegefühle leisten einen Beitrag zur Varianzaufklärung, der über den Vorhersagebeitrag viktimologischer Standardvariablen hinausgeht. Der Zusammenhang wird jedoch erst mit wachsendem zeitlichen Abstand vom Ereignis enger. Schlussfolgerungen: Rachegefühle sind vermutlich als dysfunktionale Bewältigungsreaktion auf erlittene Ungerechtigkeit zu bewerten, jedoch nicht in der ersten Zeit nach einer kriminellen Viktimisierung.

Measuring citizens' implicit and explicit attitudes towards the European Union

Studies assessing citizens’ attitudes towards Europe have mostly used explicit concepts and measures. However, psychologists have shown that human behaviour is not only determined by explicit attitudes which can be assessed via self-report, but also by implicit attitudes which require indirect measurement. We combine a self-report questionnaire with an implicit Affective Misattribution Procedure for the first time in an online environment to estimate the reliability, validity and predictive power of this implicit measure for the explanation of European Union-skeptical behaviour. Based on a survey with a sample representative for Germany, we found evidence for good reliability and validity of the implicit measure. In addition, the implicit attitude had a significant incremental impact beyond explicit attitudes on citizens’ proneness to engage in EU-skeptical information and voting behaviour.

Assessment of the Hong Kong Liver Cancer Staging System in Europe.

BACKGROUND & AIMS European and American guidelines have endorsed the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) staging system. The aim of this study was to assess the performance of the recently developed Hong Kong Liver Cancer (HKLC) classification as a staging system for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in Europe. METHODS We used a pooled set of 1693 HCC patients combining three prospective European cohorts. Discrimination ability between the nine substages and five stages of the HKLC classification system was assessed. To evaluate the predictive power of the HKLC and BCLC staging systems on overall survival, Nagelkerke pseudo R2, Bayesian Information Criterion and Harrell's concordance index were calculated. The number of patients who would benefit from a curative therapy was assessed for both staging system. RESULTS The HKLC classification in nine substages shows suboptimal discrimination between the staging groups. The classification in five stages shows better discrimination between groups. However, the BCLC classification performs better than the HKLC classification in the ability to predict OS. The HKLC treatment algorithm tags significantly more patients to curative therapy than the BCLC. CONCLUSIONS The BCLC staging system performs better for European patients than the HKLC staging system in predicting OS. Twice more patients are eligible for a curative therapy with the HKLC algorithm, whether this translates in survival benefit remains to be investigated. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.