Elicitator : an expert elicitation tool for regression in ecology

Expert elicitation is the process of retrieving and quantifying expert knowledge in a particular domain. Such information is of particular value when the empirical data is expensive, limited, or unreliable. This paper describes a new software tool, called Elicitator, which assists in quantifying expert knowledge in a form suitable for use as a prior model in Bayesian regression. Potential environmental domains for applying this elicitation tool include habitat modeling, assessing detectability or eradication, ecological condition assessments, risk analysis, and quantifying inputs to complex models of ecological processes. The tool has been developed to be user-friendly, extensible, and facilitate consistent and repeatable elicitation of expert knowledge across these various domains. We demonstrate its application to elicitation for logistic regression in a geographically based ecological context. The underlying statistical methodology is also novel, utilizing an indirect elicitation approach to target expert knowledge on a case-by-case basis. For several elicitation sites (or cases), experts are asked simply to quantify their estimated ecological response (e.g. probability of presence), and its range of plausible values, after inspecting (habitat) covariates via GIS.

Development of a computer simulation tool for application in adolescent spinal deformity surgery

Scoliosis is a three-dimensional spinal deformity which requires surgical correction in progressive cases. In order to optimize correction and avoid complications following scoliosis surgery, patient-specific finite element models (FEM) are being developed and validated by our group. In this paper, the modeling methodology is described and two clinically relevant load cases are simulated for a single patient. Firstly, a pre-operative patient flexibility assessment, the fulcrum bending radiograph, is simulated to assess the model's ability to represent spine flexibility. Secondly, intra-operative forces during single rod anterior correction are simulated. Clinically, the patient had an initial Cobb angle of 44 degrees, which reduced to 26 degrees during fulcrum bending. Surgically, the coronal deformity corrected to 14 degrees. The simulated initial Cobb angle was 40 degrees, which reduced to 23 degrees following the fulcrum bending load case. The simulated surgical procedure corrected the coronal deformity to 14 degrees. The computed results for the patient-specific FEM are within the accepted clinical Cobb measuring error of 5 degrees, suggested that this modeling methodology is capable of capturing the biomechanical behaviour of a scoliotic human spine during anterior corrective surgery.

Evaluating the Java Virtual Machine as a Target for Languages Other Than Java

The portability and runtime safety of programs which are executed on the Java Virtual Machine (JVM) makes the JVM an attractive target for compilers of languages other than Java. Unfortunately, the JVM was designed with language Java in mind, and lacks many of the primitives required for a straighforward implementation of other languages. Here, we discuss how the JVM may be used to implement other object-oriented languages. As a practical example of the possibilities, we report on a comprehensive case study. The open source Gardens Point Component Pascal compiler compiles the entire Component Pascal language, a dialect of Oberon-2, to JVM bytecodes. This compiler achieves runtime efficiencies which are comparable to native-code implementations of procedural languages.

Implementing languages other than Java on the Java Virtual Machine

The portability and runtime safety of programs which are executed on the Java Virtual Machine (JVM) makes the JVM an attractive target for compilers of languages other than Java. Unfortunately, the JVM was designed with language Java in mind, and lacks many of the primitives required for a straight forward implementation of other languages. Here, we discuss how the JVM may be used to implement other object oriented languages. As a practical example of the possibilities, we report on a comprehensive case study. The open source Gardens Point Component Pascal compiler compiles the entire Component Pascal language, a dialect of Oberon 2, to JVM bytecodes. This compiler achieves runtime efficiencies which are comparable to native code implementations of procedural languages.

Mixing colours : an ICT tool based on a semiotic framework for mathematical meaning-making about ratio and fractions

This paper reports on the research and development of an ICT tool to facilitate the learning of ratio and fractions by adult prisoners. The design of the ICT tool was informed by a semiotic framework for mathematical meaning-making. The ICT tool thus employed multiple semiotic resources including topological, typological, and social-actional resources. The results showed that individual semiotic resource could only represent part of the mathematical concept, while at the same time it might signify something else to create a misconception. When multiple semiotic resources were utilised the mathematical ideas could be better learnt.

Condition-based prognosis of machine health

Modern machines are complex and often required to operate long hours to achieve production targets. The ability to detect symptoms of failure, hence, forecasting the remaining useful life of the machine is vital to prevent catastrophic failures. This is essential to reducing maintenance cost, operation downtime and safety hazard. Recent advances in condition monitoring technologies have given rise to a number of prognosis models that attempt to forecast machinery health based on either condition data or reliability data. In practice, failure condition trending data are seldom kept by industries and data that ended with a suspension are sometimes treated as failure data. This paper presents a novel approach of incorporating historical failure data and suspended condition trending data in the prognostic model. The proposed model consists of a FFNN whose training targets are asset survival probabilities estimated using a variation of Kaplan-Meier estimator and degradation-based failure PDF estimator. The output survival probabilities collectively form an estimated survival curve. The viability of the model was tested using a set of industry vibration data.

The malnutrition screening tool is a useful tool for identifying malnutrition risk in residential aged care

Background: The Malnutrition Screening Tool (MST) is a valid nutrition screening tool in the acute hospital setting but has not been assessed in residential aged care facilities. The aim of this secondary analysis was to determine whether the MST could be a useful nutrition screening tool when compared with a full nutrition assessment by Subjective Global Assessment (SGA) in the residential aged care setting. ----- Methods: Two hundred and eighty-five residents (29% male; mean age: 84 ± 9 years) from eight residential aged care facilities in Australia participated. A secondary analysis of data collected during a nutrition intervention study was conducted. The MST consists of two questions related to recent weight loss and appetite. While the MST was not specifically applied, weight loss and appetite information was available and an estimated MST score (0-5) calculated. Nutritional status was assessed by a research assistant trained in using SGA. ----- Results: Malnutrition prevalence was 42.8% (122 malnourished out of 285 residents). Compared to the SGA, the MST was an effective predictor of nutritional risk (sensitivity = 83.6%, specificity = 65.6%, positive predictive value = 0.65, negative predictive value =0.84). ----- Conclusions: The components of the MST have acceptable sensitivity and specificity suggesting it can play a valuable role in quickly identifying malnutrition risk in the residential aged care setting. Further prospective research using the MST tool against a broader array of objective and subjective nutritional parameters is required to confirm its validity as a screening tool in aged care settings.

Role of 3D visual conceptualisation of groundwater system models as a management support tool

After the recent prolonged drought conditions in many parts of Australia it is increasingly recognised that many groundwater systems are under stress. Although this is obvious for systems that are utilised for intensive irrigation many other groundwater systems are also impacted.Management strategies are highly variable to non-existent. Policy and regulation are also often inadequate, and are reactive or politically driven. In addition, there is a wide range of opinion by water users and other stakeholders as to what is “reasonable”management practice. These differences are often related to the “value”that is put on the groundwater resource. Opinions vary from “our right to free water”to an awareness that without effective management the resource will be degraded. There is also often misunderstanding of surface water-groundwater linkages, recharge processes, and baseflow to drainage systems.

Discrepancies between metabolic activity and DNA content as tool to assess cell proliferation in cancer research

Cell proliferation is a critical and frequently studied feature of molecular biology in cancer research. Therefore, various assays are available using different strategies to measure cell proliferation. Metabolic assays such as AlamarBlue, WST-1, and MTT, which were originally developed to determine cell toxicity, are being used to assess cell numbers. Additionally, proliferative activity can be determined by quantification of DNA content using fluorophores, such as CyQuant and PicoGreen. Referring to data published in high ranking cancer journals, 945 publications applied these assays over the past 14 years to examine the proliferative behaviour of diverse cell types. Within this study, mainly metabolic assays were used to quantify changes in cell growth yet these assays may not accurately reflect cellular proliferation rates due to a miscorrelation of metabolic activity and cell number. Testing this hypothesis, we compared metabolic activity of different cell types, human cancer cells and primary cells, over a time period of 4 days using AlamarBlue and fluorometric assays CyQuant and PicoGreen to determine their DNA content. Our results show certain discrepancies in terms of over-estimation of cell proliferation with respect to the metabolic assay in comparison to DNA binding fluorophores.

Best basis-based intelligent machine fault diagnosis

The wavelet packet transform decomposes a signal into a set of bases for time–frequency analysis. This decomposition creates an opportunity for implementing distributed data mining where features are extracted from different wavelet packet bases and served as feature vectors for applications. This paper presents a novel approach for integrated machine fault diagnosis based on localised wavelet packet bases of vibration signals. The best basis is firstly determined according to its classification capability. Data mining is then applied to extract features and local decisions are drawn using Bayesian inference. A final conclusion is reached using a weighted average method in data fusion. A case study on rolling element bearing diagnosis shows that this approach can greatly improve the accuracy ofdiagno sis.