Estimating the incidence of cancers in Switzerland: 1983-1987.

Estimates have recently been made of the incidence of cancers in the countries of the European Community. Similar estimates are given for Switzerland, based on data from the six Swiss cantonal cancer registries, all of which have been operating for at least 12 years. These registries cover Basel, Geneva, Neuchatel, St Gall and Appenzell, Vaud and Zurich, which account for about 50% of the Swiss population as a whole. Two different methods were used to extrapolate from the incidences observed in the regions covered by cancer registration to the entire country. The first method is based solely on the distribution of populations according to the country's main linguistic groups, whereas the second relies on mortality data. Estimates obtained by the second approach are presented and their reliability is discussed. Comparison of the age incidence curve with that of Denmark tends to confirm the validity of the estimations. Estimated standardised rates (world population) for all sites except nonmelanomatous skin cancer are 294.3 for males and 214.2 for females. Comparisons with other European countries show that in males, lung cancer is relatively less common in Switzerland, whereas in females, breast cancer is relatively more frequent.

Conditional compositional biplots: theory and application

The biplot has proved to be a powerful descriptive and analytical tool in many areasof applications of statistics. For compositional data the necessary theoreticaladaptation has been provided, with illustrative applications, by Aitchison (1990) andAitchison and Greenacre (2002). These papers were restricted to the interpretation ofsimple compositional data sets. In many situations the problem has to be described insome form of conditional modelling. For example, in a clinical trial where interest isin how patients’ steroid metabolite compositions may change as a result of differenttreatment regimes, interest is in relating the compositions after treatment to thecompositions before treatment and the nature of the treatments applied. To study thisthrough a biplot technique requires the development of some form of conditionalcompositional biplot. This is the purpose of this paper. We choose as a motivatingapplication an analysis of the 1992 US President ial Election, where interest may be inhow the three-part composition, the percentage division among the three candidates -Bush, Clinton and Perot - of the presidential vote in each state, depends on the ethniccomposition and on the urban-rural composition of the state. The methodology ofconditional compositional biplots is first developed and a detailed interpretation of the1992 US Presidential Election provided. We use a second application involving theconditional variability of tektite mineral compositions with respect to major oxidecompositions to demonstrate some hazards of simplistic interpretation of biplots.Finally we conjecture on further possible applications of conditional compositionalbiplots

Estimating the motion of an underwater robot from a monocular image sequence

When underwater vehicles perform navigation close to the ocean floor, computer vision techniques can be applied to obtain quite accurate motion estimates. The most crucial step in the vision-based estimation of the vehicle motion consists on detecting matchings between image pairs. Here we propose the extensive use of texture analysis as a tool to ameliorate the correspondence problem in underwater images. Once a robust set of correspondences has been found, the three-dimensional motion of the vehicle can be computed with respect to the bed of the sea. Finally, motion estimates allow the construction of a map that could aid to the navigation of the robot

Compositional analysis of bivariate discrete probabilities

A joint distribution of two discrete random variables with finite support can be displayed as a two way table of probabilities adding to one. Assume that this table hasn rows and m columns and all probabilities are non-null. This kind of table can beseen as an element in the simplex of n · m parts. In this context, the marginals areidentified as compositional amalgams, conditionals (rows or columns) as subcompositions. Also, simplicial perturbation appears as Bayes theorem. However, the Euclideanelements of the Aitchison geometry of the simplex can also be translated into the tableof probabilities: subspaces, orthogonal projections, distances.Two important questions are addressed: a) given a table of probabilities, which isthe nearest independent table to the initial one? b) which is the largest orthogonalprojection of a row onto a column? or, equivalently, which is the information in arow explained by a column, thus explaining the interaction? To answer these questionsthree orthogonal decompositions are presented: (1) by columns and a row-wise geometric marginal, (2) by rows and a columnwise geometric marginal, (3) by independenttwo-way tables and fully dependent tables representing row-column interaction. Animportant result is that the nearest independent table is the product of the two (rowand column)-wise geometric marginal tables. A corollary is that, in an independenttable, the geometric marginals conform with the traditional (arithmetic) marginals.These decompositions can be compared with standard log-linear models.Key words: balance, compositional data, simplex, Aitchison geometry, composition,orthonormal basis, arithmetic and geometric marginals, amalgam, dependence measure,contingency table

Conditional deletion of ferritin h in mice reduces B and T lymphocyte populations.

The immune system and iron availability are intimately linked as appropriate iron supply is needed for cell proliferation, while excess iron, as observed in hemochromatosis, may reduce subsets of lymphocytes. We have tested the effects of a ferritin H gene deletion on lymphocytes. Mx-Cre mediated conditional deletion of ferritin H in bone marrow reduced the number of mature B cells and peripheral T cells in all lymphoid organs. FACS analysis showed an increase in the labile iron pool, enhanced reactive oxygen species formation and mitochondrial depolarization. The findings were confirmed by a B-cell specific deletion using Fth(lox/lox) ; CD19-Cre mice. Mature B cells were strongly under-represented in bone marrow and spleen of the deleted mice, whereas pre-B and immature B cells were not affected. Bone marrow B cells showed increased proliferation as judged by the number of cells in S and G2/M phase as well as BrdU incorporation. Upon in vitro culture with B-cell activating factor of the tumor necrosis factor family (BAFF), ferritin H-deleted spleen B cells showed lower survival rates than wild type cells. This was partially reversed with iron-chelator deferiprone. The loss of T cells was also confirmed by a T cell-specific deletion in Fth(lox/lox) ;CD4-Cre mice. Our data show that ferritin H is required for B and T cell survival by actively reducing the labile iron pool. They further suggest that natural B and T cell maturation is influenced by intracellular iron levels and possibly deregulated in iron excess or deprivation.

Effect of CO2 and 1-octen-3-ol attractants for estimating species richness and the abundance of diurnal mosquitoes in the southeastern Atlantic forest, Brazil

Studies have shown that both carbon dioxide (CO2) and octenol (1-octen-3-ol) are effective attractants for mosquitoes. The objective of the present study was to evaluate the attractiveness of 1-octen-3-ol and CO2 for diurnal mosquitoes in the southeastern Atlantic forest. A Latin square experimental design was employed with four treatments: CDC-light trap (CDC-LT), CDC-LT and 1-octen-3-ol, CDC-LT and CO2 and CDC-LT with 1-octen-3-ol and CO2. Results demonstrated that both CDC-CO2 and CDC-CO2-1-octen-3-ol captured a greater number of mosquito species and specimens compared to CDC-1-octen-3-ol; CDC-LT was used as the control. Interestingly, Anopheles (Kerteszia) sp. was generally attracted to 1-octen-3-ol, whereas Aedes serratus was the most abundant species in all Latin square collections. This species was recently shown to be competent to transmit the yellow fever virus and may therefore play a role as a disease vector in rural areas of Brazil.

Construction and analysis of a new conditional ferritin H knockout mouse strain/

Résumé Le fer joue un rôle important dans la plupart des fonctions biologiques mais sa présence excessive provoque la production de molécules réactives d'oxygène (ROS) qui peuvent contribuer à diverses maladies. La protéine de stockage du fer, la ferritine H, capte l'excès en fer et le stocke sous forme non-toxique, ce qui empêche des dommages potentiels. La délétion de la ferritine H dans des souris knock-out a été essayée antérieurement, mais ces souris mouraient au stade précoce du développement embryonnaire. Pour étudier l'importance du fer, et en particulier son stockage dans la ferritine, et pour pouvoir mieux comprendre les fonctions de la ferritine H, nous avons créé un modèle de souris knock-out conditionnelles de la ferritine H, selon le système classique de Cre-LoxP. Le premier exon et la région du promoteur du gène de la ferritine H ont été entourés de sites loxP. La mortalité embryonnaire provoquée par la délétion constitutive du gène de la ferritine H a été confirmée en croisant nos souris avec des souris exprimant nestin-Cre1. En croisant nos souris avec des souris transgéniques Mx-Cre, nous avons observé que l'induction de Cre par injection de polyI-polyC provoque la délétion presque complète de la ferritine H dans le foie (> 99%) et la rate (> 88%). Ces tissus ont également perdu une grande partie de leur réserve de fer. Cette observation apporte pour la première fois la preuve in vivo que la ferritine H est indispensable pour le stockage du fer, que les fonctions de la ferritine H et de la ferritine L ne sont pas équivalentes, et que la ferritine L ne peut pas assumer seule la fonction de stockage du fer. Dans le foie des souris knock-out, l'expression de l'ARN messager de l'hepcidine a été induite après 10 jours. En même temps, l'expression de l'ARN messager des gènes codant pour des protéines de l'absorption de fer (DMT1, ferroportin, Dcytb1 et hephaestin) a été réprimée mais dans le duodénum seulement. L'expression d'hepcidine est inversément corrélée avec celle des gènes liés à l'absorption de fer. Cette observation corrobore des études antérieures. Mais, en plus, elle montre également que cette répression se produit seulement dans l'intestin. Nous pouvons ainsi tirer la conclusion suivante : ou bien l'hepcidine a un récepteur spécifique dans le duodénum ou bien les gènes liés à l'absorption de fer dans le duodénum ont un facteur spécifique de transcription sensible à l'hepcidine. Aucune répression de DMT1 et de ferroportin n'a été observée dans les macrophages de la rate après l'induction d'hepcidine. La délétion de ferritine H a entraîné une augmentation du taux de mortalité des cellules hépatiques, ainsi que des altérations dans l'architecture normale du tissu de la rate. Vu par l'immunohistologie, le nombre de lymphocytes B et T était réduit dans la rate, tendant à démontrer que la ferritine H et l'homéostase du fer jouent un rôle dans l'immunité. En conclusion, le modèle de souris knock-out conditionnelles de la ferritine H nous fournit un outil précieux pour l'étude in vivo du rôle joué par la ferritine dans l'homéostase du fer, dans les dommages créés par les ROS, ainsi que dans l'apoptose et l'immunité. Summary Iron plays an important role in most biological functions. However, excess of iron results in production of reactive oxygen species (ROS) which could substantially contribute to pathology of various diseases. Ferritin H scavenges excess of iron and stores it in non-toxic form and potentially prevents the damage. Fenitin H targeting in mice has been attempted before, however, straight knockout was lethal in early embryonic stage. To study the role of iron and its storage protein ferritin and to further elucidate ferritin H functions, we aimed at creating a conditional ferritin H knockout mouse model by classical Cre-LoxP system. First exon along with promoter region of the ferritin H gene was foxed. Embryonic lethality of the constitutive ferritin H deletion was confirmed by crossing the foxed mice with mice expressing nestin Cre-1 as transgene. Almost complete deletion was observed in liver (> 99%) and spleen (>88%) upon induction of Cre by injecting polyI-polyC in Fth Lox/Lox; MxCre mice. These tissues also lost substantial fraction of their iron stores. This provides first in vivo evidence that ferritin H is required for iron storage, ferritin H and L functions are not redundant and that ferritin L cannot perform iron storage function alone. Hepcidin mRNA expression was induced after 10 days in the livers of deleted mice and, simultaneously, mRNA expression of iron absorption related genes (DMT 1, ferroportin, Dcytb1 and hephaestin) was repressed in duodenum only. Hepcidin expression is inversely correlated with that of duodenal iron absorption related genes. This is in agreement with previous studies. However, we also show that this repression happens only in intestine. This leads to the conclusion that either hepcidin has a specific receptor in duodenum or the iron absorption related genes have duodenum specific transcription factor that is responsive to hepcidin. No repression of DMT1 and ferroportin was observed in spleen macrophages upon hepcidin induction. Ferritin H deletion showed increased cell death in liver and disruption of normal architecture of spleen. B lymphocytes were reduced in spleen on immunohistology which point towards a role of ferritin H and iron homeostasis in immunity. In conclusion, ferritin H conditional knockout mouse model provides us with an invaluable tool to study the in vivo role of ferritin H in iron homeostasis, ROS mediated damage, apoptosis and immunity.

Estimating Gross Value Added (GVA) across multiple scales: theoretical approach and empirical validation

This paper presents an application of the Multi-Scale Integrated Analysis of Societal and Ecosystem Metabolism (MuSIASEM) approach to the estimation of quantities of Gross Value Added (GVA) referring to economic entities defined at different scales of study. The method first estimates benchmark values of the pace of GVA generation per hour of labour across economic sectors. These values are estimated as intensive variables –e.g. €/hour– by dividing the various sectorial GVA of the country (expressed in € per year) by the hours of paid work in that same sector per year. This assessment is obtained using data referring to national statistics (top down information referring to the national level). Then, the approach uses bottom-up information (the number of hours of paid work in the various economic sectors of an economic entity –e.g. a city or a province– operating within the country) to estimate the amount of GVA produced by that entity. This estimate is obtained by multiplying the number of hours of work in each sector in the economic entity by the benchmark value of GVA generation per hour of work of that particular sector (national average). This method is applied and tested on two different socio-economic systems: (i) Catalonia (considered level n) and Barcelona (considered level n-1); and (ii) the region of Lima (considered level n) and Lima Metropolitan Area (considered level n-1). In both cases, the GVA per year of the local economic entity –Barcelona and Lima Metropolitan Area – is estimated and the resulting value is compared with GVA data provided by statistical offices. The empirical analysis seems to validate the approach, even though the case of Lima Metropolitan Area indicates a need for additional care when dealing with the estimate of GVA in primary sectors (agriculture and mining).

Estimating the cost-effectiveness of modern screening mammography programmes

Context: The debate about the balance of risks and benefits of mammography screening has prompted a comprehensive review by an independent panel in the UK. However, the panel's remit did not cover the important economic dimension of breast cancer screening. Methods: The life histories of two cohort studies of 50-year-old women, who would be eligible within the National Health Service (NHS) breast screening programme (NHSBSP), were simulated over 35 years, using a life table approach. One cohort participant was offered screening at age 50 and triennially thereafter until age 70, assuming 75% attendance, while the other received no screening. Based on the findings from the panel's report, the cost-effectiveness of the NHSBSP was assessed for various scenarios of screening effect on breast cancer incidence (base case scenario: screening advances diagnosis by 5 years; 10% incidence reduction after screening stops).

Gap probabilities for the cardinal sine

We study the zero set of random analytic functions generated by a sum of the cardinal sine functions which form an orthogonal basis for the Paley-Wiener space. As a model case, we consider real-valued Gaussian coefficients. It is shown that the asymptotic probability that there is no zero in a bounded interval decays exponentially as a function of the length.

Modelling world investment markets using threshold conditional correlation models

In this paper we propose a parsimonious regime-switching approach to model the correlations between assets, the threshold conditional correlation (TCC) model. This method allows the dynamics of the correlations to change from one state (or regime) to another as a function of observable transition variables. Our model is similar in spirit to Silvennoinen and Teräsvirta (2009) and Pelletier (2006) but with the appealing feature that it does not suffer from the course of dimensionality. In particular, estimation of the parameters of the TCC involves a simple grid search procedure. In addition, it is easy to guarantee a positive definite correlation matrix because the TCC estimator is given by the sample correlation matrix, which is positive definite by construction. The methodology is illustrated by evaluating the behaviour of international equities, govenrment bonds and major exchange rates, first separately and then jointly. We also test and allow for different parts in the correlation matrix to be governed by different transition variables. For this, we estimate a multi-threshold TCC specification. Further, we evaluate the economic performance of the TCC model against a constant conditional correlation (CCC) estimator using a Diebold-Mariano type test. We conclude that threshold correlation modelling gives rise to a significant reduction in portfolio´s variance.

One kind of lawlessness: estimating the welfare cost of Somali piracy

This paper estimates the effect of piracy attacks on shipping costs using a unique data set on shipping contracts in the dry bulk market. We look at shipping routes whose shortest path exposes them to piracy attacks and find that the increase in attacks in 2008 lead to around a ten percent increase in shipping costs. We use this estimate to get a sense of the welfare loss imposed by piracy. Our intermediate estimate suggests that the creation of $120 million of revenue for pirates in the Somalia area led to a welfare loss of over $1.5 billion.

Perturbation expansions of multilocus fixation probabilities for frequency-dependent selection with applications to the Hill-Robertson effect and to the joint evolution of helping and punishment.

Natural populations are of finite size and organisms carry multilocus genotypes. There are, nevertheless, few results on multilocus models when both random genetic drift and natural selection affect the evolutionary dynamics. In this paper we describe a formalism to calculate systematic perturbation expansions of moments of allelic states around neutrality in populations of constant size. This allows us to evaluate multilocus fixation probabilities (long-term limits of the moments) under arbitrary strength of selection and gene action. We show that such fixation probabilities can be expressed in terms of selection coefficients weighted by mean first passages times of ancestral gene lineages within a single ancestor. These passage times extend the coalescence times that weight selection coefficients in one-locus perturbation formulas for fixation probabilities. We then apply these results to investigate the Hill-Robertson effect and the coevolution of helping and punishment. Finally, we discuss limitations and strengths of the perturbation approach. In particular, it provides accurate approximations for fixation probabilities for weak selection regimes only (Ns < or = 1), but it provides generally good prediction for the direction of selection under frequency-dependent selection.

Estimating national-level syringe availability to injecting drug users and injection coverage: Switzerland, 1996-2006.

BACKGROUND: Measuring syringe availability and coverage is essential in the assessment of HIV/AIDS risk reduction policies. Estimates of syringe availability and coverage were produced for the years 1996 and 2006, based on all relevant available national-level aggregated data from published sources. METHODS: We defined availability as the total monthly number of syringes provided by harm reduction system divided by the estimated number of injecting drug users (IDU), and defined coverage as the proportion of injections performed with a new syringe, at national level (total supply over total demand). Estimates of supply of syringes were derived from the national monitoring system, including needle and syringe programmes (NSP), pharmacies, and medically prescribed heroin programmes. Estimates of syringe demand were based on the number of injections performed by IDU derived from surveys of low threshold facilities for drug users (LTF) with NSP combined with the number of IDU. This number was estimated by two methods combining estimates of heroin users (multiple estimation method) and (a) the number of IDU in methadone treatment (MT) (non-injectors) or (b) the proportion of injectors amongst LTF attendees. Central estimates and ranges were obtained for availability and coverage. RESULTS: The estimated number of IDU decreased markedly according to both methods. The MT-based method (from 14,818 to 4809) showed a much greater decrease and smaller size of the IDU population compared to the LTF-based method (from 24,510 to 12,320). Availability and coverage estimates are higher with the MT-based method. For 1996, central estimates of syringe availability were 30.5 and 18.4 per IDU per month; for 2006, they were 76.5 and 29.9. There were 4 central estimates of coverage. For 1996 they ranged from 24.3% to 43.3%, and for 2006, from 50.5% to 134.3%. CONCLUSION: Although 2006 estimates overlap 1996 estimates, the results suggest a shift to improved syringe availability and coverage over time.