A villamos energia áralakulásának egy új modellje (A new model for price movement in electric power)

A tanulmány az aukciós villamosenergia-tőzsdéken kialakuló óránkénti árak statisztikai jellemzőivel foglalkozik. Célja, hogy egyes legújabb kutatási eredmények alapján új megvilágításban mutassa be a villamos energia óránkénti árára jellemző főbb megállapításokat, amelyek a későbbiekben az ár modellezésének alapjául szolgálhatnak. A jelenségeket az EEX és Nord Pool áramtőzsdén kereskedett termékek árainak adatain szemlélteti. Látni fogjuk, hogy át kell értékelnünk több, a villamosenergia-árak statisztikai viselkedéséről alkotott meggondolást. / === / The article concerns the statistical features of the hourly prices on auction-based markets for electric power. The purpose is to use the latest research findings to present the main statements about the hourly price for electric power in a new light, so that they can serve later as a basis for price modelling. The phenomena are viewed through the price data of products traded on the EEX and Nord Pool power exchanges. It emerges that several ideas about the statistical behaviour of electric power prices have to be reviewed.

A villamos erőművek szén-dioxid-kibocsátásának modellezése reálopciók segítségével = Modelling of the carbon dioxide emissions of a power plant, using real options

A szerző egy, a szennyezőanyag-kibocsátás európai kereskedelmi rendszerében megfelelésre kötelezett gázturbinás erőmű szén-dioxid-kibocsátását modellezi négy termékre (völgy- és csúcsidőszaki áramár, gázár, kibocsátási kvóta) vonatkozó reálopciós modell segítségével. A profitmaximalizáló erőmű csak abban az esetben termel és szennyez, ha a megtermelt áramon realizálható fedezete pozitív. A jövőbeli időszak összesített szén-dioxid-kibocsátása megfeleltethető európai típusú bináris különbözetopciók összegének. A modell keretein belül a szén-dioxid-kibocsátás várható értékét és sűrűségfüggvényét becsülhetjük, az utóbbi segítségével a szén-dioxid-kibocsátási pozíció kockáztatott értékét határozhatjuk meg, amely az erőmű számára előírt megfelelési kötelezettség teljesítésének adott konfidenciaszint melletti költségét jelenti. A sztochasztikus modellben az alaptermékek geometriai Ornstein-Uhlenbeck-folyamatot követnek. Ezt illesztette a szerző a német energiatőzsdéről származó publikus piaci adatokra. A szimulációs modellre támaszkodva megvizsgálta, hogy a különböző technológiai és piaci tényezők ceteris paribus megváltozása milyen hatással van a megfelelés költségére, a kockáztatott értékére. ______ The carbon-dioxide emissions of an EU Emissions Trading System participant, gas-fuelled power generator are modelled by using real options for four underlying instruments (peak and off-peak electricity, gas, emission quota). This profit-maximizing power plant operates and emits pollution only if its profit (spread) on energy produced is positive. The future emissions can be estimated by a sum of European binary-spread options. Based on the real-option model, the expected value of emissions and its probability-density function can be deducted. Also calculable is the Value at Risk of emission quota position, which gives the cost of compliance at a given confidence level. To model the prices of the four underlying instruments, the geometric Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process is supposed and matched to public available price data from EEX. Based on the simulation model, the effects of various technological and market factors are analysed for the emissions level and the cost of compliance.

Project finance in Hungarian electricity sector. Effect of feed-in tariff system’s change onto power plant investments

The research analyses the former and the current status of the small gas-motor power plant investments in the Hungarian energy sector. It discusses the development of project financing in the segment and the major changes and effects of new regulations and subsidy-policy implemented in 2010. The objective of this paper is to present the results of an empirical research of the so called GCHP projects, and to draw conclusion concerning how classic project financing conditions were present and changed during the last decade, and how regulation affected the current and future financial status of these projects.

Can the Paks-2 Nuclear Power Plant operate without State aid? A business economic analysis

Many studies have investigated the prospects for returns, the budgetary and financing background and energy management effects of the new nuclear power plant units to be built at Paks. This document seeks to complement previous economics-based studies by adding a new criterion. The key question in our analysis is whether the power plant company will be capable of independent operations in an economic sense - or will its survival depend on further additional aid by the owner, i.e. via the central budget, after its commissioning? We shall examine from a corporate perspective in what ways the already disclosed financing terms and conditions may affect the everyday operations of the power plant company.

Agreed-upon procedures report on the Villisca Municipal Power Plant for the period January 1, 2015 through December 31, 2015

Agreed-upon procedures report on the Villisca Municipal Power Plant for the period January 1, 2015 through December 31, 2015

Dynamic-Data Driven Real-Time Identification for Electric Power Systems

Power system engineers face a double challenge: to operate electric power systems within narrow stability and security margins, and to maintain high reliability. There is an acute need to better understand the dynamic nature of power systems in order to be prepared for critical situations as they arise. Innovative measurement tools, such as phasor measurement units, can capture not only the slow variation of the voltages and currents but also the underlying oscillations in a power system. Such dynamic data accessibility provides us a strong motivation and a useful tool to explore dynamic-data driven applications in power systems. To fulfill this goal, this dissertation focuses on the following three areas: Developing accurate dynamic load models and updating variable parameters based on the measurement data, applying advanced nonlinear filtering concepts and technologies to real-time identification of power system models, and addressing computational issues by implementing the balanced truncation method. By obtaining more realistic system models, together with timely updated parameters and stochastic influence consideration, we can have an accurate portrait of the ongoing phenomena in an electrical power system. Hence we can further improve state estimation, stability analysis and real-time operation.

Life cycle management of TVO nuclear power plant

Tämä diplomityö tutkii eri elinkaarihallinnan menetelmiä ja vertaa niitä TVO:n menetelmiin. Lisäksi TVO:n prosessin ongelmakohdat tunnistetaan ja niihin esitetään ratkaisuja. Vertailukohteina toimii ydinvoimateollisuuden lisäksi vesivoima, fossiiliset voimalaitokset sekä paperiteollisuus. Sähkön hinnan jatkaessa laskuaan on elinkaariajattelusta tullut ajankohtaista myös ydinvoimayhtiöille. Ydinvoimalaitoksien pitkän suunnitellun käyttöiän ansiosta laitoksen elinkaaren aikana voi tapahtua useita asioita, jotka vaikuttavat laitoksen investointitarpeisiin. Turvallisen sähköntuotannon varmistamiseksi eri laitososia on joko muokattava tai uusittava. Elinkaariajatteluun kuuluu tehokas laitoksen kunnon valvonta, laitoksen ikääntymiseen vaikuttavien ilmiöiden tunnistaminen, sekä ikääntymistä hillitsevien toimenpiteiden pitkän tähtäimen suunnittelu. Hyvällä ennakkosuunnittelulla pyritään varmistamaan se, että laitoksella voidaan tuottaa sähköä koko sen jäljellä olevan käyttöiän aikana. Kun tarpeiden tunnistus ja suunnittelu tehdään hyvissä ajoin mahdollistetaan myös investointien optimointi. Paras hyöty pyritään saamaan ajoittamalla oikeat investoinnit oikeaan aikaan.

Quantifying the Resilience of an Urban Traffic-Electric Power Coupled System

Transportation system resilience has been the subject of several recent studies. To assess the resilience of a transportation network, however, it is essential to model its interactions with and reliance on other lifelines. In this work, a bi-level, mixed-integer, stochastic program is presented for quantifying the resilience of a coupled traffic-power network under a host of potential natural or anthropogenic hazard-impact scenarios. A two-layer network representation is employed that includes details of both systems. Interdependencies between the urban traffic and electric power distribution systems are captured through linking variables and logical constraints. The modeling approach was applied on a case study developed on a portion of the signalized traffic-power distribution system in southern Minneapolis. The results of the case study show the importance of explicitly considering interdependencies between critical infrastructures in transportation resilience estimation. The results also provide insights on lifeline performance from an alternative power perspective.

Real-time load-side control of electric power systems

Two trends are emerging from modern electric power systems: the growth of renewable (e.g., solar and wind) generation, and the integration of information technologies and advanced power electronics. The former introduces large, rapid, and random fluctuations in power supply, demand, frequency, and voltage, which become a major challenge for real-time operation of power systems. The latter creates a tremendous number of controllable intelligent endpoints such as smart buildings and appliances, electric vehicles, energy storage devices, and power electronic devices that can sense, compute, communicate, and actuate. Most of these endpoints are distributed on the load side of power systems, in contrast to traditional control resources such as centralized bulk generators. This thesis focuses on controlling power systems in real time, using these load side resources. Specifically, it studies two problems.

(1) Distributed load-side frequency control: We establish a mathematical framework to design distributed frequency control algorithms for flexible electric loads. In this framework, we formulate a category of optimization problems, called optimal load control (OLC), to incorporate the goals of frequency control, such as balancing power supply and demand, restoring frequency to its nominal value, restoring inter-area power flows, etc., in a way that minimizes total disutility for the loads to participate in frequency control by deviating from their nominal power usage. By exploiting distributed algorithms to solve OLC and analyzing convergence of these algorithms, we design distributed load-side controllers and prove stability of closed-loop power systems governed by these controllers. This general framework is adapted and applied to different types of power systems described by different models, or to achieve different levels of control goals under different operation scenarios. We first consider a dynamically coherent power system which can be equivalently modeled with a single synchronous machine. We then extend our framework to a multi-machine power network, where we consider primary and secondary frequency controls, linear and nonlinear power flow models, and the interactions between generator dynamics and load control.

(2) Two-timescale voltage control: The voltage of a power distribution system must be maintained closely around its nominal value in real time, even in the presence of highly volatile power supply or demand. For this purpose, we jointly control two types of reactive power sources: a capacitor operating at a slow timescale, and a power electronic device, such as a smart inverter or a D-STATCOM, operating at a fast timescale. Their control actions are solved from optimal power flow problems at two timescales. Specifically, the slow-timescale problem is a chance-constrained optimization, which minimizes power loss and regulates the voltage at the current time instant while limiting the probability of future voltage violations due to stochastic changes in power supply or demand. This control framework forms the basis of an optimal sizing problem, which determines the installation capacities of the control devices by minimizing the sum of power loss and capital cost. We develop computationally efficient heuristics to solve the optimal sizing problem and implement real-time control. Numerical experiments show that the proposed sizing and control schemes significantly improve the reliability of voltage control with a moderate increase in cost.

A Cost Analysis Of Carbon Dioxide Emission Reduction Strategies For New Plants In Michigan's Electric Power Sector

This thesis attempts to find the least-cost strategy to reduce CO2 emission by replacing coal by other energy sources for electricity generation in the context of the proposed EPA’s regulation on CO2 emissions from existing coal-fired power plants. An ARIMA model is built to forecast coal consumption for electricity generation and its CO2 emissions in Michigan from 2016 to 2020. CO2 emission reduction costs are calculated under three emission reduction scenarios- reduction to 17%, 30% and 50% below the 2005 emission level. The impacts of Production Tax Credit (PTC) and the intermittency of renewable energy are also discussed. The results indicate that in most cases natural gas will be the best alternative to coal for electricity generation to realize CO2 reduction goals; if the PTC for wind power will continue after 2015, a natural gas and wind combination approach could be the best strategy based on the least-cost criterion.

Life cycle assessment of residual forestry biomass chips at a power plant: a Portuguese case study

The residual forest biomass (RFB) sector has been experiencing strong development at European level and particularly in Portugal mainly due to the increase of energy production from renewable sources. The aim of this study is to assess the environmental impacts of eucalyptus RFB chips production chain in Portugal. The environmental and economic impact comparison of the processes included in the production chain is presented as well. The environmental impacts were calculated by the life cycle assessment approach described in the ISO 14040 series of standards. The production chain assessed included all processes from eucalyptus forest until the delivery of RFB chips at the power plant. The main conclusion of this study is that eucalyptus wood production is the process that presents the greatest environmental impact through the product life cycle.

Exploring the effect of political risks in large infrastructure projects in politically unstable countries using a probabilistic modelling approach

This research aims to explore and identify political risks on a large infrastructure project in an exaggerated environment to ascertain whether sufficient objective information can be gathered by project managers to utilise risk modelling techniques. During the study, the author proposes a new definition of political risk; performs a detailed project study of the Neelum Jhelum Hydroelectric Project in Pakistan; implements a probabilistic model using the principle of decomposition and Bayes probabilistic theorem and answers the question: was it possible for project managers to obtain all the relevant objective data to implement a probabilistic model?

A Synoptic View of a Coastal Plain Estuary.

During October, 1972 the Patuxent River Estuary was monitored intensively and synoptically over two tidal cycles to determine the spatial and temporal patterns of various hydrodynamic, chemical and biological features. Forty-one depths at eleven stations along nine transects were sampled simultaneously at hourly intervals for salinity, temperature, dissolved oxygen, chlorohyll a, particulate nitrogen, nitrate, nitrite, total kjeldahl nitrogen, ammonia, particulate carbohydrate, dissolved organic carbon, total hydrolizable phosphorous, dissolved inorganic phosphorous, suspended sediment, particle size distribution, and zooplankton. Tidal velocity was continuously monitored at each depth by recording current meters. Riverine input and meteorological conditions were relatively stable for two weeks preceeding the deployment. This communication describes the calculation of the intrinsic rates of change of the observed variables from their measured distributions in the Estuary. The steady-state, one-dimensional equation of species continuity is employed to separate the advection and tidal dispersion of a hydrodynamically passive substance frbm its intrinsic rate of change at point. A new spatial transform is introduced for the purpose of interpolation and extrapolation of data.The intrinsic rate of change profiles reveal a region of heavy bloom activity in the upper estuary and a secondary bloom near the point in the River that most of the suspended material settles out. The changes in ammonia and nitrates are highly correlated to the productivity patterns. Phosphorous rates are less closely correlated to productivity. The perturbations that the Chalk Point steam electric power plant have on the heat and oxygen balances are easily discernible.

Image of Niagara Falls n.d.

In 1818 Parkhurst Whitney built stairs leading to the river’s edge at Prospect Point. In 1825 Porter Brother replaced that staircase with a spiral one. In 1844 Whitney started a water powered incline railway there although the staircase was also used until 1890. In 1906 the water wheel was replaced by an electric power plant. There were lower buildings which included Shadow of the Rock which was a concession stand and also rented raincoats to the tourists. This was destroyed by fire and ice in 1892 and replaced by a chalet-style building in 1894-95. On July 6th, 1907 a cable on the incline railway broke. One person was killed and several sustained injuries. An elevator was constructed and it opened in January of 1910. It was condemned in 1954 when water entered the shaft, this was at the time of the collapse of Prospect Point which occurred at 4:50 pm. on July 28, 1954. This photograph was taken prior to 1954. Today the New York State Observation Tower stands at Prospect Point and The Maid of the Mist boat ride is available from the base of the tower. with information from: Niagara Falls Canada: a History by the Kiwanis Club of Stamford, Ontario