Are there non-linearities in short-term interest rates?

The present paper investigates the characteristics of short-term interest rates in several countries. We examine the importance of nonlinearities in the mean reversion and volatility of short-term interest rates. We examine various models that allow the conditional mean (drift) and conditional variance (diffusion) to be functions of the current short rate.We find that different markets require different models. In particular, we find evidence of nonlinear mean reversion in some of the countries that we examine, linear mean reversion in others and no mean reversion in some countries. For all countries we examine, there is strong evidence of the need for the volatility of interest rate changes to be highly sensitive to the level of the short-term interest rate. Out-of-sample forecasting performance of one-factor short rate models is poor, stemming from the inability of the models to accommodate jumps and discontinuities in the time series data.

MANDRÁGORAS: MITOS E ASPECTOS DA CULTURA DE ISRAEL A PARTIR DE GÊNESIS 25 A 36

A sexualidade de Lea e Raquel, o útero, as mandrágoras e o corpo de Jacó são fatores que definem o alicerce do nosso texto como espaços de diálogo, mediação e estrutura do cenário. O destaque principal está sob o capítulo 30.14-16 que retrata a memória das mandrágoras. Como plantas místicas elas dominam o campo religioso e como plantas medicinais elas são utilizadas para solucionar problemas biológicos. As instituições e sociedades detentoras de uma ideologia e de leis que regulamentam uma existência apresentam na narrativa, duas irmãs, mas também esposas de um mesmo homem que, manipuladas por essa instituição que minimiza e oprime a mulher, principalmente a estéril, confina-as como simples objeto de sexualidade e mantenedoras da descendência por meio da maternidade.A memória das mandrágoras é sinal de que a prática existente circundava uma religião não monoteísta. Ela existia sociologicamente por meio de sincretismos, força e poderes sócio-culturais e religiosos. Era constituída das memórias de mulheres que manipulavam e dominavam o poder sagrado para controle de suas necessidades. O discurso dessas mulheres, em nossa unidade, prova que o discurso dessa narrativa não se encontra somente no plano individual, mas também se estende a nível comunitário, espaço que as define e lhes concede importância por meio do casamento e dádivas da maternidade como continuidade da descendência. São mulheres que dominaram um espaço na história com suas lutas e vitórias, com atos de amor e de sofrimento, de crenças e poderes numa experiência religiosa dominada pelo masculino que vai além do nosso conhecimento atual. As lutas firmadas na fé e na ideologia dessas mulheres definiram e acentuaram seu papel de protagonistas nas narrativas 9 bíblicas que estudamos no Gênesis. A conservação dessas narrativas, e do espaço teológico da época, definiu espaços, vidas, gerações e tribos que determinaram as gerações prometidas e fecharam um ciclo: o da promessa de Iahweh quanto à descendência desde Abraão. Os mitos e as crenças foram extintos para dar espaço a uma fé monoteísta, mas a experiência religiosa dessas mulheres definiu um espaço: do poder sagrado e místico que corroborava com suas necessidades e definiam sua teologia.(AU)

Modelling nonlinear stochastic dynamics in financial time series

For analysing financial time series two main opposing viewpoints exist, either capital markets are completely stochastic and therefore prices follow a random walk, or they are deterministic and consequently predictable. For each of these views a great variety of tools exist with which it can be tried to confirm the hypotheses. Unfortunately, these methods are not well suited for dealing with data characterised in part by both paradigms. This thesis investigates these two approaches in order to model the behaviour of financial time series. In the deterministic framework methods are used to characterise the dimensionality of embedded financial data. The stochastic approach includes here an estimation of the unconditioned and conditional return distributions using parametric, non- and semi-parametric density estimation techniques. Finally, it will be shown how elements from these two approaches could be combined to achieve a more realistic model for financial time series.

Supporting decision-making for self-adaptive systems:from goal models to dynamic decision networks

Context/Motivation - Different modeling techniques have been used to model requirements and decision-making of self-adaptive systems (SASs). Specifically, goal models have been prolific in supporting decision-making depending on partial and total fulfilment of functional (goals) and non-functional requirements (softgoals). Different goalrealization strategies can have different effects on softgoals which are specified with weighted contribution-links. The final decision about what strategy to use is based, among other reasons, on a utility function that takes into account the weighted sum of the different effects on softgoals. Questions/Problems - One of the main challenges about decisionmaking in self-adaptive systems is to deal with uncertainty during runtime. New techniques are needed to systematically revise the current model when empirical evidence becomes available from the deployment. Principal ideas/results - In this paper we enrich the decision-making supported by goal models by using Dynamic Decision Networks (DDNs). Goal realization strategies and their impact on softgoals have a correspondence with decision alternatives and conditional probabilities and expected utilities in the DDNs respectively. Our novel approach allows the specification of preferences over the softgoals and supports reasoning about partial satisfaction of softgoals using probabilities. We report results of the application of the approach on two different cases. Our early results suggest the decision-making process of SASs can be improved by using DDNs. © 2013 Springer-Verlag.

The data type of spatial objects

A spatial object consists of data assigned to points in a space. Spatial objects, such as memory states and three dimensional graphical scenes, are diverse and ubiquitous in computing. We develop a general theory of spatial objects by modelling abstract data types of spatial objects as topological algebras of functions. One useful algebra is that of continuous functions, with operations derived from operations on space and data, and equipped with the compact-open topology. Terms are used as abstract syntax for defining spatial objects and conditional equational specifications are used for reasoning. We pose a completeness problem: Given a selection of operations on spatial objects, do the terms approximate all the spatial objects to arbitrary accuracy? We give some general methods for solving the problem and consider their application to spatial objects with real number attributes. © 2011 British Computer Society.

Joint Densities of Correlation Coefficients for Samples from Multivariate Standard Normal Distribution

2000 Mathematics Subject Classification: 62H10.

Nonparametric Estimation in the Class of Bisexual Processes with Population-Size Dependent Mating

2000 Mathematics Subject Classification: 60J80, 62M05

Invariance under type morphisms: the bayesian Nash equilibrium

Ely and Peski (2006) and Friedenberg and Meier (2010) provide examples when changing the type space behind a game, taking a "bigger" type space, induces changes of Bayesian Nash Equilibria, in other words, the Bayesian Nash Equilibrium is not invariant under type morphisms. In this paper we introduce the notion of strong type morphism. Strong type morphisms are stronger than ordinary and conditional type morphisms (Ely and Peski, 2006), and we show that Bayesian Nash Equilibria are not invariant under strong type morphisms either. We present our results in a very simple, finite setting, and conclude that there is no chance to get reasonable assumptions for Bayesian Nash Equilibria to be invariant under any kind of reasonable type morphisms.

Transferable Utility Games with Uncertainty

We introduce the concept of a TUU-game, a transferable utility game with uncertainty. In a TUU-game there is uncertainty regarding the payoffs of coalitions. One out of a finite number of states of nature materializes and conditional on the state, the players are involved in a particular transferable utility game. We consider the case without ex ante commitment possibilities and propose the Weak Sequential Core as a solution concept. We characterize the Weak Sequential Core and show that it is non-empty if all ex post TUgames are convex.

Transferable Utility Games with Uncertainty

We introduce the concept of a TUU-game, a transferableutilitygame with uncertainty. In a TUU-game there is uncertainty regarding the payoffs of coalitions. One out of a finite number of states of nature materializes and conditional on the state, the players are involved in a particular transferableutilitygame. We consider the case without ex ante commitment possibilities and propose the Weak Sequential Core as a solution concept. We characterize the Weak Sequential Core and show that it is non-empty if all ex post TU-games are convex.

Evaluating the Effectiveness of Discrete Trial Procedures for Teaching Receptive Discrimination to Children with Autism Spectrum Disorders

Research has found that children with autism spectrum disorders (ASD) show significant deficits in receptive language skills (Wiesmer, Lord, & Esler, 2010). One of the primary goals of applied behavior analytic intervention is to improve the communication skills of children with autism by teaching receptive discriminations. Both receptive discriminations and receptive language entail matching spoken words with corresponding objects, symbols (e.g., pictures or words), actions, people, and so on (Green, 2001). In order to develop receptive language skills, children with autism often undergo discrimination training within the context of discrete trial training. This training entails teaching the learner how to respond differentially to different stimuli (Green, 2001). It is through discrimination training that individuals with autism learn and develop language (Lovaas, 2003). The present study compares three procedures for teaching receptive discriminations: (1) simple/conditional (Procedure A), (2) conditional only (Procedure B), and (3) conditional discrimination of two target cards (Procedure C). Six children, ranging in age from 2-years-old to 5-years-old, with an autism diagnosis were taught how to receptively discriminate nine sets of stimuli. Results suggest that the extra training steps included in the simple/conditional and conditional only procedures may not be necessary to teach children with autism how to receptively discriminate. For all participants, Procedure C appeared to be the most efficient and effective procedure for teaching young children with autism receptive discriminations. Response maintenance and generalization probes conducted one-month following the end of training indicate that even though Procedure C resulted in less training sessions overall, no one procedure resulted in better maintenance and generalization than the others. In other words, more training sessions, as evident with the simple/conditional and conditional only procedures, did not facilitate participants’ ability to accurately respond or generalize one-month following training. The present study contributes to the literature on what is the most efficient and effective way to teach receptive discrimination during discrete trial training to children with ASD. These findings are critical as research shows that receptive language skills are predictive of better outcomes and adaptive behaviors in the future.

Estimação e previsão no processo INARCH(2)

In the last decades the study of integer-valued time series has gained notoriety due to its broad applicability (modeling the number of car accidents in a given highway, or the number of people infected by a virus are two examples). One of the main interests of this area of study is to make forecasts, and for this reason it is very important to propose methods to make such forecasts, which consist of nonnegative integer values, due to the discrete nature of the data. In this work, we focus on the study and proposal of forecasts one, two and h steps ahead for integer-valued second-order autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity processes [INARCH (2)], and in determining some theoretical properties of this model, such as the ordinary moments of its marginal distribution and the asymptotic distribution of its conditional least squares estimators. In addition, we study, via Monte Carlo simulation, the behavior of the estimators for the parameters of INARCH(2) processes obtained using three di erent methods (Yule- Walker, conditional least squares, and conditional maximum likelihood), in terms of mean squared error, mean absolute error and bias. We present some forecast proposals for INARCH(2) processes, which are compared again via Monte Carlo simulation. As an application of this proposed theory, we model a dataset related to the number of live male births of mothers living at Riachuelo city, in the state of Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil.

Estimação e previsão no processo INARCH(2)

In the last decades the study of integer-valued time series has gained notoriety due to its broad applicability (modeling the number of car accidents in a given highway, or the number of people infected by a virus are two examples). One of the main interests of this area of study is to make forecasts, and for this reason it is very important to propose methods to make such forecasts, which consist of nonnegative integer values, due to the discrete nature of the data. In this work, we focus on the study and proposal of forecasts one, two and h steps ahead for integer-valued second-order autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity processes [INARCH (2)], and in determining some theoretical properties of this model, such as the ordinary moments of its marginal distribution and the asymptotic distribution of its conditional least squares estimators. In addition, we study, via Monte Carlo simulation, the behavior of the estimators for the parameters of INARCH(2) processes obtained using three di erent methods (Yule- Walker, conditional least squares, and conditional maximum likelihood), in terms of mean squared error, mean absolute error and bias. We present some forecast proposals for INARCH(2) processes, which are compared again via Monte Carlo simulation. As an application of this proposed theory, we model a dataset related to the number of live male births of mothers living at Riachuelo city, in the state of Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil.

Myostatin dysfunction is associated with reduction in overload induced hypertrophy of soleus muscle in mice

Acknowledgements This project was also supported by Marie Curie International Reintegration Grant 249156 (A. Lionikas) and the grants VP1-3.1-SMM-01-V-02-003 (A. Kilikevicius) and MIP-067/2012 (T. Venckunas) from the Research Council of Lithuania as well as the grant from the Ministry of Higher Education of Saudi Arabia (Y. Alhind). We wish also to thank Mrs Indre Libnickiene for her excellent technical assistance provided during the project

Myostatin dysfunction is associated with reduction in overload induced hypertrophy of soleus muscle in mice

Acknowledgements This project was also supported by Marie Curie International Reintegration Grant 249156 (A. Lionikas) and the grants VP1-3.1-SMM-01-V-02-003 (A. Kilikevicius) and MIP-067/2012 (T. Venckunas) from the Research Council of Lithuania as well as the grant from the Ministry of Higher Education of Saudi Arabia (Y. Alhind). We wish also to thank Mrs Indre Libnickiene for her excellent technical assistance provided during the project