The effects of commodity dependence on the brazilian economy: a test of the dutch disease hypothesis

A doença holandesa tornou-se amplamente conhecida na década de 1960, quando a descoberta repentina de reservatórios de gás natural em território holandês, na região do mar do norte, transformou o país em uma economia rica em recursos. A desagradável consequência que proveio da recém-adquirida abundância de commodities foi o declínio da próspera indústria holandesa, que perdeu sua competitividade devido à valorização do florim holandês, como consequência do aumento do influxo de capital estrangeiro no país. Desde então este fenômeno tem sido observado em diversos países que possuem abundância de commodities. O objetivo desta tese é aplicar o modelo da doença holandesa ao Brasil, já que a maior economia da América latina poderá também ter de encarar a ameaça de se tornar prisioneira da “armadilha das commodities”, devido à sua abundância de recursos naturais. O autor revisa a bibliografia básica abordando o tema geral da doença holandesa e dá enfoque a estudos realizados anteriormente no Brasil. Além disso, os quatro maiores sintomas que caracterizam a doença holandesa são testados: (1) valorização das taxas de câmbio do real, (2) declínio do setor industrial, (3) crescimento do setor de serviços, e (4) aumento dos salários. Todos estes sintomas foram observados e podem ser comprovados através das abordagens de cointegração ou de correlação, com exceção do sintoma número dois. Ainda que estes resultados sejam significativos, há muito outros fatores determinantes que influenciam o desenvolvimento dos sintomas examinados, motivo pelo qual futuros estudos serão necessários para se obtiver conclusões definitivas sobre como o Brasil é afetado pela doença holandesa.

Pricing and hedging of oil futures : a unifying approach

We develop and empirically test a continuous time equilibrium model for the pricing of oil futures. The model provides a link between no-arbitrage models and expectation oriented models. It highlights the role of inventories for the identification of different pricing regimes. In an empirical study the hedging performance of our model is compared with five other one- and two-factor pricing models. The hedging problem considered is related to Metallgesellschaft´s strategy to hedge long-term forward commitments with short-term futures. The results show that the downside risk distribution of our inventory based model stochastically dominates those of the other models.

Analysis of the Coupled Stretching-Bending Problem of Stiffened Plates by a BEM Formulation Based on Reissner's Hypothesis

In this work, the plate bending formulation of the boundary element method - BEM, based on the Reissner's hypothesis, is extended to the analysis of plates reinforced by beams taking into account the membrane effects. The formulation is derived by assuming a zoned body where each sub-region defines a beam or a slab and all of them are represented by a chosen reference surface. Equilibrium and compatibility conditions are automatically imposed by the integral equations, which treat this composed structure as a single body. In order to reduce the number of degrees of freedom, the problem values defined on the interfaces are written in terms of their values on the beam axis. Initially are derived separated equations for the bending and stretching problems, but in the final system of equations the two problems are coupled and can not be treated separately. Finally are presented some numerical examples whose analytical results are known to show the accuracy of the proposed model.

Relationship Between the Prevalence of the Dentigerous Cyst and the Odontogenic Keratocyst Tumor and the Current Etiologic Hypothesis

Cysts are considered as nonneoplastic benign lesions that, when present for a long period of time, can cause some discomfort, especially related to the treatment form. Among the types of cysts of the maxilla, the dentigerous cyst (DC) presents substances between the dental follicle and the crown of the tooth with high potential for resorption, and the odontogenic keratocyst tumor (OKT) characterizes for its noticed rapid growth pattern and the possibility to develop carcinomas in the lesion wall. The DC is the most common type among the developing odontogenic cystic lesions, while the OKT represents 10% of these lesions. The prevalence of the OKT found in the current study was superior to the DC, opposing data of the evaluated literature, as well as the predominance in relation to the age group. Dentigerous cyst cases were found mostly in younger individuals, whereas the OKT was observed mainly in individuals between the third and fourth decades of life. This fact reflects the fragility of these features while establishing the presumptive diagnosis and insinuates the strong relation with a probable genetic predisposition. In relation to sex and race, the findings in this article were similar to those found in the literature, highlighting the possibility of a hormonal involvement. However, the anatomopathologic examination remains essential to define the main diagnosis of the lesions observed by means of imaging examinations, providing for safer diagnoses to plan the treatment.

Water deprivation and the double- depletion hypothesis: common neural mechanisms underlie thirst and salt appetite

Water deprivation-induced thirst is explained by the double-depletion hypothesis, which predicts that dehydration of the two major body fluid compartments, the extracellular and intracellular compartments, activates signals that combine centrally to induce water intake. However, sodium appetite is also elicited by water deprivation. In this brief review, we stress the importance of the water-depletion and partial extracellular fluid-repletion protocol which permits the distinction between sodium appetite and thirst. Consistent enhancement or a de novo production of sodium intake induced by deactivation of inhibitory nuclei (e.g., lateral parabrachial nucleus) or hormones (oxytocin, atrial natriuretic peptide), in water-deprived, extracellular-dehydrated or, contrary to tradition, intracellular-dehydrated rats, suggests that sodium appetite and thirst share more mechanisms than previously thought. Water deprivation has physiological and health effects in humans that might be related to the salt craving shown by our species.

Microscopic evidence supports the hypothesis of high cellulose degradation capacity by the symbiotic fungus of leaf-cutting ants

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

A new genus and two new species of Stevardiinae (Characiformes: Characidae) with a hypothesis on their relationships based on morphological and histological data

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Testing the quick meal hypothesis: the effect of pulp on hoarding and seed predation of Hymenaea courbaril by red-rumped agoutis (Dasyprocta leporina)

Red-rumped agoutis (Dasyprocta leporina) are important seed dispersers/predators of Neotropical large-seeded plants. Several species of seeds cached by agoutis have an edible reward, in contrast to temperate rodent-dispersed diaspores. The quick meal hypothesis states that the presence of a reward such as edible pulp will enhance the efficiency of rodents as seed disperses by satiating the animal and, consequently, reducing seed predation and enhancing hoarding. In this study, this hypothesis was tested using as the reference system the pulp and seeds of Hymenaea courbaril. Seeds with and without pulp were offered to agoutis and the behaviour of each individual was recorded. Since the probability of predation and hoarding were complementary, we used the probability of predation. The proportion of agoutis that preyed on at least one seed was similar for seeds with (42.8% of individuals) and without (40.0% of individuals) pulp. In agoutis that preyed upon at least one seed, the probability that they killed a seed did not differ between seeds with (0.17 +/- 0.03) and without (0.20 +/- 0.08) pulp. Hence, these results do not support the 'quick meal hypothesis'.

Testing the ecomorphological hypothesis in a headwater riffles fish assemblage of the rio São Francisco, southeastern Brazil

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

GENETIC MECHANISMS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF REPRODUCTIVE-ORGANS OF APIS-MELLIFERA WORKERS AND DIPLOID DRONES - A COMPLEMENTARY HYPOTHESIS

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Intraspecific variability in the basal metabolic rate: Testing the food habits hypothesis

Several competing hypotheses attempt to explain how environmental conditions affect mass-independent basal metabolic rate (BMR) in mammals. One of the most inclusive and yet debatable hypotheses is the one that associates BMR with food habits, including habitat productivity. These effects have been widely investigated at the interspecific level under the assumption that for any given species all traits are fixed. Consequently, the variation among individuals is largely ignored. Intraspecific analysis of physiological traits has the potential to compensate for many of the pitfalls associated with interspecific analyses and, thus, to be a useful approach for evaluating hypotheses regarding metabolic adaptation. In this study, we investigated the effects of food quality, availability, and predictability on the BMR of the leaf-eared mouse Phyllotis darwini. BMR was measured on freshly caught animals from the field, since they experience natural seasonal variations in environmental factors ( and, hence, variations in habitat productivity) and diet quality. BMR was significantly correlated with the proportion of dietary plants and seeds. In addition, BMR was significantly correlated with monthly habitat productivity. Path analysis indicated that, in our study, habitat productivity was responsible for the observed changes in BMR, while diet per se had no effect on this variable.

Territorial hypothesis predicts the trade-off between reproductive opportunities and parental care in three species of damselfishes (Pomacentridae: Actinopterygii)

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Study of the venom glands in Ectatomma quadridens (Hymenoptera: Formicidae). Evolutionary hypothesis in subfamily ponerinae

The venom glands of worker ants of the species Ectatomma quadridens morphologically resemble an elongated sac or reservoir ending in a narrower portion that has the function of releasing the secretion to the exterior. Two external secretory filaments are individually inserted into the proximal portion of the gland and end inside the convoluted gland. The venom gland of workers of E. quadridens is, therefore, morphologically subdivided into four distinct portions: a) sac-shaped reservoir measuring approximately 1mm in length; b) excretory duct, proximal portion of the reservoir that joins the gland to the sting apparatus; c) convoluted gland, final portion of the external secretory filaments located inside the reservoir; and d) two secretory filaments measuring about 2 mm in length; their free extremities end blindly and are individually inserted into the reservoir wall at the proximal region of the venom gland. The histological data showed that the filaments and the convoluted gland are composed of cubic cells of secretory function. The reservoir consists of a simple cubical epithelium externally surrounded by muscle fibers. A thick cuticle internally coats the epithelium of the reservoir. The application of histochemical tests allowed us to establish that the final secretion of the venom gland of Ectatomma quadridens is of glycoproteic nature. This secretion undergoes several modifications at the secretory filaments, at the convoluted gland, and in the reservoir before reaching the excretory duct, the point at which the secretion is released in its final composition, namely the venom. Based on the differences among various Ponerinae species we propose a hypothesis suggesting a probable evolutionary process that the venom glands of members of this subfamily might have undergone.