An individual-based model of the early life history of mackerel (Scomber scombrus) in the eastern North Atlantic, simulating transport, growth and mortality

The main purpose of this paper is to provide the core description of the modelling exercise within the Shelf Edge Advection Mortality And Recruitment (SEAMAR) programme. An individual-based model (IBM) was developed for the prediction of year-to-year survival of the early life-history stages of mackerel (Scomber scombrus) in the eastern North Atlantic. The IBM is one of two components of the model system. The first component is a circulation model to provide physical input data for the IBM. The circulation model is a geographical variant of the HAMburg Shelf Ocean Model (HAMSOM). The second component is the IBM, which is an i-space configuration model in which large numbers of individuals are followed as discrete entities to simulate the transport, growth and mortality of mackerel eggs, larvae and post-larvae. Larval and post-larval growth is modelled as a function of length, temperature and food distribution; mortality is modelled as a function of length and absolute growth rate. Each particle is considered as a super-individual representing 10 super(6) eggs at the outset of the simulation, and then declining according to the mortality function. Simulations were carried out for the years 1998-2000. Results showed concentrations of particles at Porcupine Bank and the adjacent Irish shelf, along the Celtic Sea shelf-edge, and in the southern Bay of Biscay. High survival was observed only at Porcupine and the adjacent shelf areas, and, more patchily, around the coastal margin of Biscay. The low survival along the shelf-edge of the Celtic Sea was due to the consistently low estimates of food availability in that area.

Is there a connection between high transport of water through the Rockall Trough and ecological changes in the North Sea?

Changes in the ecosystem of the North Sea may occur as pronounced inter-annual and step-wise shifts as well as gradual trends. Marked inter-annual shifts have occurred at least twice in the last two decades, the late 1980s and the late 1990s, that appear to reflect an increased inflow of oceanic water and species. Numerical modelling has demonstrated a link between altered rates of inflow of oceanic water into the northern North Sea and a regime shift after 1988. In 1989 and 1997 oceanic species not normally found in the North Sea were observed there, suggesting pulses of oceanic water had entered the basin and triggered the subsequent ecosystem change. The oceanic water has origins mainly west of Britain in the Rockall Trough, where the long-term mean volume transport is around 3.7Sv northwards (1Sv=10 super(6)m super(3)s super(1)), but in early 1989 and early 1998 was observed to be more than twice the mean value, reaching over 7Sv. These periods of high transport coinciding with the inferred pulses of oceanic water into the North Sea suggest a connection through the continental shelf edge current. Copyright 2001 International Council for the Exploration of the Sea

Modelling the Influence of Major Baltic Inflows on Near-Bottom Conditions at the Entrance of the Gulf of Finland

A coupled hydrodynamic-biogeochemical model was implemented in order to estimate the effects of Major Baltic Inflows on the near-bottom hydrophysical and biogeochemical conditions in the northern Baltic Proper and the western Gulf of Finland during the period 1991�2009. We compared results of a realistic reference run to the results of an experimental run where Major Baltic Inflows were suppressed. Further to the expected overall decrease in bottom salinity, this modelling experiment confirms that in the absence of strong saltwater inflows the deep areas of the Baltic Proper would become more anoxic, while in the shallower areas (western Gulf of Finland) near-bottom average conditions improve. Our experiment revealed that typical estuarine circulation results in the sporadic emergence of short-lasting events of near-bottom anoxia in the western Gulf of Finland due to transport of water masses from the Baltic Proper. Extrapolating our results beyond the modelled period, we speculate that the further deepening of the halocline in the Baltic Proper is likely to prevent inflows of anoxic water to the Gulf of Finland and in the longer term would lead to improvement in near-bottom conditions in the Baltic Proper. Our results reaffirm the importance of accurate representation of salinity dynamics in coupled Baltic Sea models serving as a basis for credible hindcast and future projection simulations of biogeochemical conditions.

Generalized compound transport of charged particles in turbulent magnetized plasmas

The transport of charged particles in partially turbulent magnetic systems is investigated from first principles. A generalized compound transport model is proposed, providing an explicit relation between the mean-square deviation of the particle parallel and perpendicular to a magnetic mean field, and the mean-square deviation which characterizes the stochastic field-line topology. The model is applied in various cases of study, and the relation to previous models is discussed.

Characterisation of virus transport and attenuation in epikarst using short pulse and prolonged injection multi-tracer testing

Attenuation processes controlling virus fate and transport in the vadose zone of karstified systems can strongly influence groundwater quality. This research compares the breakthrough of two bacteriophage tracers (H40/1 and T7), with contrasting properties, at subsurface monitoring points following application onto an overlying composite sequence of thin organic soil and weathered limestone (epikarst). Short pulse multi-tracer test results revealed that T7 (Source concentration, Co=1.8x106pfu/mL) and H40/1(Co=5.9x106pfu/mL) could reach sampling points 10m below ground less than 30 minutes after tracer application. Contrasting deposition rates, determined from simulated tracer responses, reflected the potential of the ground to differentially attenuate viruses. Prolonged application of both T7 (Co=2.3x104pfu/mL) and H40/1 (Co=1.3x105pfu/mL) over a five hour period during a subsequent test, in which ionic strength levels observed at monitoring points rose consistently, corresponded to a rapid rise in T7 levels, followed by a gradual decline before the end of tracer injection; this reflected reaction-limited deposition in the system. T7’s response contrasted with that of H40/1, whose concentration remained constant over a three hour period before declining dramatically prior to the end of tracer injection. Subsequent application of lower ionic strength tracer-free flush water generated a rapid rise in H40/1 levels and a more gradual release of T7. Results highlight the benefits of employing prolonged injection multi-tracer tests for identifying processes not apparent from conventional short pulse tests. Study findings demonstrate that despite rapid transport rates, the epikarst is capable of physicochemical filtration of viruses and their remobilization, depending on virus type and hydrochemical conditions.

Observation of annular electron beam transport in multi-TeraWatt laser-solid interactions

Electron energy transport experiments conducted on the Vulcan 100 TW laser facility with large area foil targets are described. For plastic targets it is shown, by the plasma expansion observed in shadowgrams taken after the interaction, that there is a transition between the collimated electron flow previously reported at the 10 TW power level to an annular electron flow pattern with a 20 degrees divergence angle for peak powers of 68 TW. Intermediate powers show that both the central collimated flow pattern and the surrounding annular-shaped heated region can co-exist. The measurements are consistent with the Davies rigid beam model for fast electron flow (Davies 2003 Phys. Rev. E 68 056404) and LSP modelling provides additional insight into the observed results.

Modelling the cycling of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) in the North Sea system: Fluxes, loading, seasonality, trends

The fate and cycling of two selected POPs is investigated for the North Sea system with an improved version of a fate and transport ocean model (FANTOM). The model uses atmospheric data from the EMEP MSC East POP model (Gusev et al., 2009), giving reasonable concentrations and seasonal distributions for the entire region, as opposed to the three observation stations that Ilyina et al. (2006) were limited to. Other model improvements include changes in the calculation of POP exchange between the water column and sediment.

We chose to simulate the fate of two POPs with very different properties, ?-HCH and PCB 153. Since the fate and cycling of POPs are strongly affected by hydrodynamic processes, a high resolution version of the Hamburg Shelf Ocean Model (HAMSOM) was developed and utilised. Simulations were made for the period 1996–2005. Both models were validated by comparing results with available data, which showed that the simulations were of very satisfactory quality.

Model results show that the North Sea is a net sink for ?-HCH and a net source to the atmosphere of PCB 153. Total masses of ?-HCH and PCB 153 in 2005 are reduced to 30% and 50%, respectively, of 1996 values.

Storms resuspending bottom sediments into the water column mobilise POPs into the atmosphere and have the potential to deliver substantial loads of these POPs into Europe.

nero- a post-maximum supernova radiation transport code

The interpretation of supernova (SN) spectra is essential for deriving SN ejecta properties such as density and composition, which in turn can tell us about their progenitors and the explosion mechanism. A very large number of atomic processes are important for spectrum formation. Several tools for calculating SN spectra exist, but they mainly focus on the very early or late epochs. The intermediate phase, which requires a non-local thermodynamic equilibrium (NLTE) treatment of radiation transport has rarely been studied. In this paper, we present a new SN radiation transport code, nero, which can look at those epochs. All the atomic processes are treated in full NLTE, under a steady-state assumption. This is a valid approach between roughly 50 and 500days after the explosion depending on SN type. This covers the post-maximum photospheric and the early and the intermediate nebular phase. As a test, we compare nero to the radiation transport code of Jerkstrand, Fransson & Kozma and to the nebular code of Mazzali et al. All three codes have been developed independently and a comparison provides a valuable opportunity to investigate their reliability. Currently, nero is one-dimensional and can be used for predicting spectra of synthetic explosion models or for deriving SN properties by spectral modelling. To demonstrate this, we study the spectra of the 'normal' Type Ia supernova (SN Ia) 2005cf between 50 and 350 days after the explosion and identify most of the common SN Ia line features at post-maximum epochs. © 2011 The Authors Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society © 2011 RAS.

Modelling Transition Due to Backward Facing Steps Using the Laminar Kinetic Energy Concept

Boundary layer transition estimation and modelling is essential for the design of many engineering products across many industries. In this paper, the Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes are solved in conjunction with three additional transport equations to model and predict boundary layer transition. The transition model (referred to as the kTkT–kLkL–ωω model) is based on the kk–ωω framework with an additional transport equation to incorporate the effects low-frequency flow oscillations in the form of a laminar kinetic energy (kLkL). Firstly, a number of rectifications are made to the original kTkT–kLkL–ωω framework in order to ensure an appropriate response to the free-stream turbulence level and to improve near wall predictions. Additionally, the model is extended to incorporate the capability to model transition due to surface irregularities in the form of backward-facing steps with maximum non-dimensional step sizes of approximately 1.5 times the local displacement thickness of the boundary layer where the irregularity is located (i.e k/δ∗⪅1.5k/δ∗⪅1.5) at upstream turbulence intensities in the range 0.01<Tu(%)<0.80.01<Tu(%)<0.8. A novel function is proposed to incorporate transition sensitivity due to aft-facing steps. This paper details the rationale behind the development of this new function and demonstrates its suitability for transition onset estimation on a flat plate at zero pressure gradient.

Modelling the fate of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) in the North Sea system

The environmental fate of selected persistent organic pollutants (POPs) in the North Sea system is modelled with a high resolution Fate and Transport Ocean Model (FANTOM) that uses hydrodynamic model output from the Hamburg Shelf Ocean Model (HAMSOM). Large amounts of POPs enter the North Sea from the surrounding highly populated, industrialised and agricultural countries. Major pathways to the North Sea are atmospheric deposition and river inputs, with additional contributions coming from bottom sediments and adjacent seas. The model domain covers the entire North Sea region, extending northward as far as the Shetland Islands, and includes adjacent basins such as the Skagerrak, Kattegat, and the westernmost part of the Baltic Sea. Model resolution (for both models) is 1.5’ latitude x 2.5’ longitude (approximately 3 km horizontal resolution) with 30 vertical levels. The POP model also has 20 sediment layers. Important model processes controlling the fate of POPs in the North Sea system are discussed. Results focus on Lindane gamma- HCH or gamma-hexachlorocyclohexane) and PCB 153.

Evidence reasoning for event inference in smart transport video surveillance

In this paper we present a new event recognition framework, based on the Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence, which combines the evidence from multiple atomic events detected by low-level computer vision analytics. The proposed framework employs evidential network modelling of composite events. This approach can effectively handle the uncertainty of the detected events, whilst inferring high-level events that have semantic meaning with high degrees of belief. Our scheme has been comprehensively evaluated against various scenarios that simulate passenger behaviour on public transport platforms such as buses and trains. The average accuracy rate of our method is 81% in comparison to 76% by a standard rule-based method.

Battery modelling methods for electric vehicles - a review

Electric vehicles (EVs) and hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) are rapidly gaining popularity as a means of de-carbonization in the transport sector in tackling sustainable energy supply and environment pollution problems. To build a proper battery model is essential in predicting battery behaviour under various operating conditions for avoiding unsafe battery operations and developing proper controlling algorithms and maintenance strategies. This paper presents a comprehensive review of battery modelling methods. In particular, the mechanism and characteristics of Li-ion batteries are presented, and different modelling methods are discussed. Considering that equivalent electric circuit models (EECMs) are the most widely used, a detailed analysis of the modelling procedure is presented.

An R-matrix approach for plasma modelling and the interpretation of astrophysical observation

Over the last decade an Auburn-Rollins-Strathclyde consortium has developed several suites of parallel R-matrix codes [1, 2, 3] that can meet the fundamental data needs required for the interpretation of astrophysical observation and/or plasma experiments. Traditionally our collisional work on light fusion-related atoms has been focused towards spectroscopy and impurity transport for magnetically confined fusion devices. Our approach has been to provide a comprehensive data set for the excitation/ionization for every ion stage of a particular element. As we progress towards a burning fusion plasma, there is a demand for the collisional processes involving tungsten, which has required a revitalization of the relativistic R-matrix approach. The implementation of these codes on massively parallel supercomputers has facilitated the progression to models involving thousands of levels in the close-coupling expansion required by the open d and f sub-shell systems of mid Z tungsten. This work also complements the electron-impact excitation of Fe-Peak elements required by astrophysics, in particular the near neutral species, which offer similar atomic structure challenges. Although electron-impact excitation work is our primary focus in terms of fusion application, the single photon photoionisation codes are also being developed in tandem, and benefit greatly from this ongoing work.

Numerical modelling of radionuclide migration in near-surface systems

Em todo o mundo são usados, hoje em dia, modelos numéricos hidrogeoquímicos para simular fenómenos naturais e fenómenos decorrentes de actividades antrópicas. Estes modelos ajudam-nos a compreender o ambiente envolvente, a sua variabilidade espacial e evolução temporal. No presente trabalho apresenta-se o desenvolvimento de modelos numéricos hidrogeoquímicos aplicados no contexto do repositório geológico profundo para resíduos nucleares de elevada actividade. A avaliação da performance de um repositório geológico profundo inclui o estudo da evolução geoquímica do repositório, bem como a análise dos cenários de mau funcionamento do repositório, e respectivas consequências ambientais. Se se escaparem acidentalmente radionuclídeos de um repositório, estes poderão atravessar as barreiras de engenharia e barreiras naturais que constituem o repositório, atingindo eventualmente, os ecosistemas superficiais. Neste caso, os sedimentos subsuperficiais constituem a última barreira natural antes dos ecosistemas superficiais. No presente trabalho foram desenvolvidos modelos numéricos que integram processos biogeoquímicos, geoquímicos, hidrodinâmicos e de transporte de solutos, para entender e quantificar a influência destes processos na mobilidade de radionuclídeos em sistemas subsuperficiais. Os resultados alcançados reflectem a robustez dos instrumentos numéricos utilizados para desenvolver simulações descritivas e predictivas de processos hidrogeoquímicos que influenciam a mobilidade de radionuclídeos. A simulação (descritiva) de uma experiência laboratorial revela que a actividade microbiana induz a diminuição do potencial redox da água subterrânea que, por sua vez, favorece a retenção de radionuclídeos sensíveis ao potencial redox, como o urânio. As simulações predictivas indicam que processos de co-precipitação com minerais de elementos maioritários, precipitação de fases puras, intercâmbio catiónico e adsorção à superfície de minerais favorecem a retenção de U, Cs, Sr e Ra na fase sólida de uma argila glaciar e uma moreia rica em calcite. A etiquetagem dos radionuclídeos nas simulações numéricas permitiu concluir que a diluição isotópica joga um papel importante no potencial impacte dos radionuclídeos nos sistemas subsuperficiais. A partir dos resultados das simulações numéricas é possivel calcular coeficientes de distribuição efectivos. Esta metodologia proporciona a simulação de ensaios de traçadores de longa duração que não seriam exequíveis à escala da vida humana. A partir destas simulações podem ser obtidos coeficientes de retardamento que são úteis no contexto da avaliação da performance de repositórios geológicos profundos.

Calibration and validation of hydrodynamic, salt and heat transport models for Ria de Aveiro lagoon (Portugal)

Ria deAveiro is a very complex shallow water coastal lagoon located on the northwest of Portugal. Important issues would be left unanswered without a good understanding of hydrodynamic and transport processes occurring in the lagoon. Calibration and validation of hydrodynamic, salt and heat transport models for Ria de Aveiro lagoon are presented. The calibration of the hydrodynamic model was performed adjusting the bottom friction coefficient, through the comparison between measured and predicted time series of sea surface elevation for 22 stations. Harmonic analysis was performed in order to evaluate the model's accuracy. To validate the hydrodynamic model measured and predicted SSE values were compared for 11 stations, as well as main flow direction velocities for 10 stations. The salt and heat transport models were calibrated comparing measured and predicted time series of salinity and water temperature for 7 stations, and the RMS of the difference between the series was determined. These models were validated comparing the model results with an independent field data set. The hydrodynamic and the salt and heat transport models for Ria de Aveiro were successfully calibrated and validated. They reproduce accurately the barotropic flows and can therefore adequately represent the salt and heat transport and the heat transfer processes occurring in Ria deAveiro.