La intuición estratégica como eje dinamizador en la toma de decisiones de las mipymes

El presente trabajo de investigación se centra en hacer un análisis exploratorio sobre la incidencia que tiene la intuición estratégica en el proceso de creación, organización y permanencia de las organizaciones caracterizadas por pertenecer a la categoría de micro, pequeña y mediana empresa (Mipyme) en Bogotá-Colombia. Con este propósito, el estudio se concentra en empresas (MiPyMe) de una muestra pequeña en la ciudad de Bogotá-Colombia que pertenezcan a un sector donde es más difícil contar con información para la toma de decisiones, de tal manera que, de encontrar una relación evidenciable con el uso de la intuición estratégica, se abra espacio para nuevas y más amplias investigaciones al respecto en el mercado Colombiano y Latinoamericano. El estudio se concentra en ver cómo las empresas observadas que se inician y perduran en el tiempo, lo hacen sin tener los respectivos estudios sistemáticos de diagnóstico de su entorno, tales como mercadeo, capacidad instalada, análisis financiero entre otros, pero que pese a esto, logran posicionarse en cada uno de sus mercados. Ante este contexto, se busca determinar si tal éxito obedece a una serie de cualidades, competencias o características de estos emprendedores, asociadas al marco general de la teoría de la intuición estratégica.

Integrated educational opportunities in the Universal Museum: five ways forward

Whatever the other characteristics of the universal museum, education must be one of its core functions. That is, education both of regular visitors and those who are not but who are members of the local, regional or national communities served by the museum. In this sense, universal refers to making the museum accessible to all: accessible physically and intellectually. This relates to what I mean by education. It is far broader than what takes place between teachers and pupils in a formal setting. Education is also about providing environments where people will be inspired or provoked to know, to question. To reflect about themselves and the wider human and natural world. A universal museum should be a great facilitator of these learning processes. In this paper I shall focus on five ways in which there can be integration of educational opportunities in the universal museum. For examples to illustrate these themes I shall draw on practices in a small sample of museums in Europe and the USA.

Impacto da tomografia computorizada versus radiografia no prognóstico pós-cirúrgico do carcinoma espinocelular oral no cão

Objectivos: Neste estudo retrospectivo pretendeu-se determinar o impacto da tomografia computorizada na sobrevivência pós-cirúrgica do cão com carcinoma espinocelular na cavidade oral, comparativamente à radiografia. Enfatizando desta forma, a sua importância no diagnóstico, no planeamento cirúrgico e prognóstico. O segundo objectivo consistiu em determinar as características tomográficas dos carcinomas espinocelulares da cavidade oral em cães. Material e Métodos: Foram analisados 7 canídeos com diagnóstico de carcinoma espinocelular. Os critérios de inclusão foram: cães com carcinoma espinocelular diagnosticado por biópsia, exame imagiológico complementar (radiografia simples ou tomografia computorizada), elegibilidade para cirurgia, execução de tratamento cirúrgico e acompanhamento pós-cirúrgico durante 2 anos. Foi registada a idade, o sexo, a raça, a localização anatómica, o estadiamento T e N, as características radiográficas e tomográficas dos tumores, o tempo de recorrência e por fim o tempo de sobrevivência global descrito nos registos consultados. Procedeu-se também ao registo das variáveis das imagens radiográficas e tomográficas obtidas: definição das margens neoplásicas, presença ou ausência de reacção perióstea e de destruição de osso cortical adjacente, presença de deslocação dentária e de reabsorção dentária e densidade óssea local. Resultados: Nenhum dos meios imagiológicos permitiu uma visualização bem definida das margens neoplásicas. A nível da destruição de osso cortical adjacente, foi visível em 66,67% dos casos avaliados com radiografia e em todos os casos que foram avaliados com tomografia computorizada (100%). Foi visível reacção perióstea em 33,33% dos canídeos avaliados por radiografia e em nenhum dos avaliados por tomografia (0%). A densidade óssea local estava diminuída em todos os casos avaliados por radiografia simples ou por tomografia. A nível de reabsorção dentária estava presente em 33,33% dos avaliados por radiografia e em 25% dos avaliados por tomografia. Foi possível visualizar deslocação dentária em 66,67% dos avaliados por radiografia e em todos os avaliados por tomografia (100%). A nível de percentagem de casos com recorrência local, nenhum caso avaliado com radiografia recorreu e apenas 1 caso avaliado por tomografia recorreu em 289 dias. O tempo médio de sobrevivência foi superior no grupo dos avaliados com radiografia (1091,7 dias) relativamente ao grupo avaliado por tomografia (404 dias). Ao fim de 2 anos, 66,67% dos casos avaliados por radiografia estavam vivos e somente 25% dos casos avaliados com tomografia sobreviveram. Discussão/conclusão: Não foi possível determinar o impacto real dos dois meios de diagnóstico no prognóstico pós-cirúrgico do carcinoma espinocelular oral no cão, devido à reduzida amostra e aos tumores com pior prognóstico (por localização e estadiamento) terem sido remetidos para tomografia.

Efficacy of 1000 Hz tympanometry in infants birth to 4 months of age: A follow up study

Interpretation of 1000 Hz tympanometry is not standardized. Several compensated and uncompensated measures were analyzed and compared to otologic findings. Results of auditory brainstem testing and otoacoustic emissions were considered to better obtain middle ear status. Findings were inconclusive due to small sample size.

An analysis of grammatical errors by children with cochlear implants

Spontaneous writing samples of deaf children with cochlear implants were analyzed for syntactic errors and other descriptive characteristics. These results were compared to a small sample of writings from hearing children.

Population Assessment of an Endangered Shorebird: the Piping Plover (Charadrius melodus melodus) in Eastern Canada

Small, at-risk populations are those for which accurate demographic information is most crucial to conservation and recovery, but also where data collection is constrained by logistical challenges and small sample sizes. Migratory animals in particular may experience a wide range of threats to survival and reproduction throughout each annual cycle, and identification of life stages most critical to persistence may be especially difficult for these populations. The endangered eastern Canadian breeding population of Piping Plover (Charadrius melodus melodus) was estimated at only 444 adults in 2005, and extensive effort has been invested in conservation activities, reproductive monitoring, and marking of individual birds, providing a comprehensive data set on population dynamics since 1998. We used these data to build a matrix projection model for two Piping Plover population segments that nest in eastern Canada in order to estimate both deterministic and stochastic rates of population growth (λd and λs, respectively). Annual population censuses suggested moderate growth in abundance between 1998–2003, but vital rate estimates indicated that this temporary growth may be replaced by declines in the long term, both in southern Nova Scotia (λd = 1.0043, λs = 0.9263) and in the Gulf of St. Lawrence (λd = 0.9651, λs = 0.8214). Nonetheless, confidence intervals on λ estimates were relatively wide, highlighting remaining uncertainty in future population trajectories. Differences in projected growth between regions appear to be driven by low estimated juvenile post-fledging survival in the Gulf, but threats to juveniles of both population segments following departure from nesting beaches remain unidentified. Similarly, λ in both population segments was particularly sensitive to changes in adult survival as expected for most migratory birds, but very little is understood about the threats to Piping Plover survival during migration and overwintering. Consequently, we suggest that future recovery efforts for these and other vulnerable migrants should quantify and manage the largely unknown sources of both adult and juvenile mortality during non-breeding seasons while maintaining current levels of nesting habitat protection.

Migration and diversity in Roman Britain: a multidisciplinary approach to immigrants in Roman York, England

Previous anthropological investigations at Trentholme Drive, in Roman York identified an unusual amount of cranial variation amongst the inhabitants, with some individuals suggested as having originated from the Middle East or North Africa. The current study investigates the validity of this assessment using modern anthropological methods to assess cranial variation in two groups: The Railway and Trentholme Drive. Strontium and oxygen isotope evidence derived from the dentition of 43 of these individuals was combined with the craniometric data to provide information on possible levels of migration and the range of homelands that may be represented. The results of the craniometric analysis indicated that the majority of the York population had European origins, but that 11% of the Trentholme Drive and 12% of The Railway study samples were likely of African decent. Oxygen analysis identified four incomers, three from areas warmer than the UK and one from a cooler or more continental climate. Although based on a relatively small sample of the overall population at York, this multidisciplinary approach made it possible to identify incomers, both men and women, from across the Empire. Evidence for possible second generation migrants was also suggested. The results confirm the presence of a heterogeneous population resident in York and highlight the diversity, rather than the uniformity, of the population in Roman Britain. Am J Phys Anthropol 140:546-561, 2009. (C) 2009 Wiley-Liss, Inc

An extension of an over-dispersion test for count data

While over-dispersion in capture–recapture studies is well known to lead to poor estimation of population size, current diagnostic tools to detect the presence of heterogeneity have not been specifically developed for capture–recapture studies. To address this, a simple and efficient method of testing for over-dispersion in zero-truncated count data is developed and evaluated. The proposed method generalizes an over-dispersion test previously suggested for un-truncated count data and may also be used for testing residual over-dispersion in zero-inflation data. Simulations suggest that the asymptotic distribution of the test statistic is standard normal and that this approximation is also reasonable for small sample sizes. The method is also shown to be more efficient than an existing test for over-dispersion adapted for the capture–recapture setting. Studies with zero-truncated and zero-inflated count data are used to illustrate the test procedures.

Testing symmetry and homogeneity in the almost ideal demand system with co-integrated data using fully modified estimation and the bootstrap

Conventional seemingly unrelated estimation of the almost ideal demand system is shown to lead to small sample bias and distortions in the size of a Wald test for symmetry and homogeneity when the data are co-integrated. A fully modified estimator is developed in an attempt to remedy these problems. It is shown that this estimator reduces the small sample bias but fails to eliminate the size distortion.. Bootstrapping is shown to be ineffective as a method of removing small sample bias in both the conventional and fully modified estimators. Bootstrapping is effective, however, as a method of removing. size distortion and performs equally well in this respect with both estimators.

Asymptotic normality in mixtures of power series distributions

The problem of estimating the individual probabilities of a discrete distribution is considered. The true distribution of the independent observations is a mixture of a family of power series distributions. First, we ensure identifiability of the mixing distribution assuming mild conditions. Next, the mixing distribution is estimated by non-parametric maximum likelihood and an estimator for individual probabilities is obtained from the corresponding marginal mixture density. We establish asymptotic normality for the estimator of individual probabilities by showing that, under certain conditions, the difference between this estimator and the empirical proportions is asymptotically negligible. Our framework includes Poisson, negative binomial and logarithmic series as well as binomial mixture models. Simulations highlight the benefit in achieving normality when using the proposed marginal mixture density approach instead of the empirical one, especially for small sample sizes and/or when interest is in the tail areas. A real data example is given to illustrate the use of the methodology.

Bayesian design and conduct of phase II single-arm clinical trials with binary outcomes: a tutorial

The aim of phase II single-arm clinical trials of a new drug is to determine whether it has sufficient promising activity to warrant its further development. For the last several years Bayesian statistical methods have been proposed and used. Bayesian approaches are ideal for earlier phase trials as they take into account information that accrues during a trial. Predictive probabilities are then updated and so become more accurate as the trial progresses. Suitable priors can act as pseudo samples, which make small sample clinical trials more informative. Thus patients have better chances to receive better treatments. The goal of this paper is to provide a tutorial for statisticians who use Bayesian methods for the first time or investigators who have some statistical background. In addition, real data from three clinical trials are presented as examples to illustrate how to conduct a Bayesian approach for phase II single-arm clinical trials with binary outcomes.

Development of a liquid chromatographic time-of-flight mass spectrometric method for the determination of unlabelled and deuterium-labelled alpha-tocopherol in blood components

A method is described for the analysis of deuterated and undeuterated alpha-tocopherol in blood components using liquid chromatography coupled to an orthogonal acceleration time-of-flight (TOF) mass spectrometer. Optimal ionisation conditions for undeuterated (d0) and tri- and hexadeuterated (d3 or d6) alpha-tocopherol standards were found with negative ion mode electrospray ionisation. Each species produced an isotopically resolved single ion of exact mass. Calibration curves of pure standards were linear in the range tested (0-1.5 muM, 0-15 pmol injected). For quantification of d0 and d6 in blood components following a standard solvent extraction, a stable-isotope-labelled internal standard (d3-alpha-tocopherol) was employed. To counter matrix ion suppression effects, standard response curves were generated following identical solvent extraction procedures to those of the samples. Within-day and between-day precision were determined for quantification of d0- and d6-labelled alpha-tocopherol in each blood component and both averaged 3-10%. Accuracy was assessed by comparison with a standard high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) method, achieving good correlation (r(2) = 0.94), and by spiking with known concentrations of alpha-tocopherol (98% accuracy). Limits of detection and quantification were determined to be 5 and 50 fmol injected, respectively. The assay was used to measure the appearance and disappearance of deuterium-labelled alpha-tocopherol in human blood components following deuterium-labelled (d6) RRR-alpha-tocopheryl acetate ingestion. The new LC/TOFMS method was found to be sensitive, required small sample volumes, was reproducible and robust, and was capable of high throughput when large numbers of samples were generated. Copyright (C) 2003 John Wiley Sons, Ltd.

The effects of maternal social phobia on mother-infant interactions and infant social responsiveness

Background: Social phobia aggregates in families. The genetic contribution to intergenerational transmission is modest, and parenting is considered important. Research on the effects of social phobia on parenting has been subject to problems of small sample size, heterogeneity of samples and lack of specificity of observational frameworks. We addressed these problems in the current study.Methods: We assessed mothers with social phobia (N = 84) and control mothers (N = 89) at 10 weeks in face-to-face interactions with their infants, and during a social challenge, namely, engaging with a stranger. We also assessed mothers with generalised anxiety disorder (GAD) (N = 50). We examined the contribution to infant social responsiveness of early infant characteristics (neonatal irritability), as well as maternal behaviour. Results: Mothers with social phobia were no less sensitive to their infants during face-to-face interactions than control mothers, but when interacting with the stranger they appeared more anxious, engaged less with the stranger themselves, and were less encouraging of the infant's interaction with the stranger; infants of index mothers also showed reduced social responsiveness to the stranger. These differences did not apply to mothers with GAD and their infants. Regression analyses showed that the reduction in social responsiveness in infants of mothers with social phobia was predicted by neonatal irritability and the degree to which the mother encouraged the infant to interact with the stranger.Conclusions: Mothers with social phobia show specific parenting difficulties, and their infants show early signs of reduced social responsiveness that are related to both individual infant differences and a lack of maternal encouragement to engage in social interactions.

Mapping the human record in the British early Palaeolithic: evidence from the Solent River system

The lithic record from the Solent River and its tributaries is re-examined in the light of recent interpretations about the changing demography of Britain during the Lower and early Middle Palaeolithic. Existing models of the terrace stratigraphies in the Solent and its tributary areas are reviewed and the corresponding archaeological record (specifically handaxes) for each terrace is assessed to provide models for the relative changes in human occupation through time. The Bournemouth area is studied in detail to examine the effects of quarrying and urbanisation on collection history and on the biases it introduces to the record. In addition, the effects of reworking of artefacts from higher into lower terraces are assessed, and shown to be a significant problem. Although there is very little absolute dating available for the Solent area, a cautious interpretation of the results from these analyses would suggest a pre-Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 12 date for the first appearance of humans, a peak in population between MIS 12 and 10, and a decline in population during MIS 9 and 8. Owing to poor contextual data and small sample sizes, it is not clear when Levallois technology was introduced. This record is compared and contrasted to that from the Thames Valley. It is suggested that changes in the palaeogeography of Britain, in particular land connections to the continent, might have contributed to differences in the archaeological records from the Solent and Thames regions.

3D-Var assimilation of insect-derived Doppler radar radial winds in convective cases using a high resolution model

The assimilation of Doppler radar radial winds for high resolution NWP may improve short term forecasts of convective weather. Using insects as the radar target, it is possible to provide wind observations during convective development. This study aims to explore the potential of these new observations, with three case studies. Radial winds from insects detected by 4 operational weather radars were assimilated using 3D-Var into a 1.5 km resolution version of the Met Office Unified Model, using a southern UK domain and no convective parameterization. The effect on the analysis wind was small, with changes in direction and speed up to 45° and 2 m s−1 respectively. The forecast precipitation was perturbed in space and time but not substantially modified. Radial wind observations from insects show the potential to provide small corrections to the location and timing of showers but not to completely relocate convergence lines. Overall, quantitative analysis indicated the observation impact in the three case studies was small and neutral. However, the small sample size and possible ground clutter contamination issues preclude unequivocal impact estimation. The study shows the potential positive impact of insect winds; future operational systems using dual polarization radars which are better able to discriminate between insects and clutter returns should provided a much greater impact on forecasts.