What will be the risk-free rate and benchmark yield curve following European monetary union?

Using a linear factor model, we study the behaviour of French, Germany, Italian and British sovereign yield curves in the run up to EMU. This allows us to determine which of these yield curves might best approximate a benchmark yield curve post EMU. We find that the best approximation for the risk free yield is the UK three month T-bill yield, followed by the German three month T-bill yield. As no one sovereign yield curve dominates all others, we find that a composite yield curve, consisting of French, Italian and UK bonds at different maturity points along the yield curve should be the benchmark post EMU.

Probabilistic wind power forecasts with an inverse power curve transformation and censored regression

Forecasting wind power is an important part of a successful integration of wind power into the power grid. Forecasts with lead times longer than 6 h are generally made by using statistical methods to post-process forecasts from numerical weather prediction systems. Two major problems that complicate this approach are the non-linear relationship between wind speed and power production and the limited range of power production between zero and nominal power of the turbine. In practice, these problems are often tackled by using non-linear non-parametric regression models. However, such an approach ignores valuable and readily available information: the power curve of the turbine's manufacturer. Much of the non-linearity can be directly accounted for by transforming the observed power production into wind speed via the inverse power curve so that simpler linear regression models can be used. Furthermore, the fact that the transformed power production has a limited range can be taken care of by employing censored regression models. In this study, we evaluate quantile forecasts from a range of methods: (i) using parametric and non-parametric models, (ii) with and without the proposed inverse power curve transformation and (iii) with and without censoring. The results show that with our inverse (power-to-wind) transformation, simpler linear regression models with censoring perform equally or better than non-linear models with or without the frequently used wind-to-power transformation.

The iso-Score Curve Graph. A new tool for competitive bidding

The present work describes a new tool that helps bidders improve their competitive bidding strategies. This new tool consists of an easy-to-use graphical tool that allows the use of more complex decision analysis tools in the field of Competitive Bidding. The graphic tool described here tries to move away from previous bidding models which attempt to describe the result of an auction or a tender process by means of studying each possible bidder with probability density functions. As an illustration, the tool is applied to three practical cases. Theoretical and practical conclusions on the great potential breadth of application of the tool are also presented.

Computing the Cassels–Tate pairing on the 3-Selmer group of an elliptic curve

We extend the method of Cassels for computing the Cassels-Tate pairing on the 2-Selmer group of an elliptic curve, to the case of 3-Selmer groups. This requires significant modifications to both the local and global parts of the calculation. Our method is practical in sufficiently small examples, and can be used to improve the upper bound for the rank of an elliptic curve obtained by 3-descent.

Precession and nutation in the eta Carinae binary system: evidence from the X-ray light curve

It is believed that eta Carinae is actually a massive binary system, with the wind-wind interaction responsible for the strong X-ray emission. Although the overall shape of the X-ray light curve can be explained by the high eccentricity of the binary orbit, other features like the asymmetry near periastron passage and the short quasi-periodic oscillations seen at those epochs have not yet been accounted for. In this paper we explain these features assuming that the rotation axis of eta Carinae is not perpendicular to the orbital plane of the binary system. As a consequence, the companion star will face eta Carinae on the orbital plane at different latitudes for different orbital phases and, since both the mass-loss rate and the wind velocity are latitude dependent, they would produce the observed asymmetries in the X-ray flux. We were able to reproduce the main features of the X-ray light curve assuming that the rotation axis of eta Carinae forms an angle of 29 degrees +/- 4 degrees with the axis of the binary orbit. We also explained the short quasi-periodic oscillations by assuming nutation of the rotation axis, with an amplitude of about 5 degrees and a period of about 22 days. The nutation parameters, as well as the precession of the apsis, with a period of about 274 years, are consistent with what is expected from the torques induced by the companion star.

Topological invariants of isolated complete intersection curve singularities

In this paper we present some formulae for topological invariants of projective complete intersection curves with isolated singularities in terms of the Milnor number, the Euler characteristic and the topological genus. We also present some conditions, involving the Milnor number and the degree of the curve, for the irreducibility of complete intersection curves.

The curve selection lemma and the Morse-Sard theorem

We use an inequality due to Bochnak and Lojasiewicz, which follows from the Curve Selection Lemma of real algebraic geometry in order to prove that, given a C(r) function f : U subset of R(m) -> R, we have lim(y -> xy is an element of crit(f)) vertical bar f(y) - f(x)vertical bar/vertical bar y - x vertical bar(r) = 0, for all x is an element of crit(f)` boolean AND U, where crit( f) = {x is an element of U vertical bar df ( x) = 0}. This shows that the so-called Morse decomposition of the critical set, used in the classical proof of the Morse-Sard theorem, is not necessary: the conclusion of the Morse decomposition lemma holds for the whole critical set. We use this result to give a simple proof of the classical Morse-Sard theorem ( with sharp differentiability assumptions).

A collocation method for solving singular integro-differential equations

This paper describes a collocation method for numerically solving Cauchy-type linear singular integro-differential equations. The numerical method is based on the transformation of the integro-differential equation into an integral equation, and then applying a collocation method to solve the latter. The collocation points are chosen as the Chebyshev nodes. Uniform convergence of the resulting method is then discussed. Numerical examples are presented and solved by the numerical techniques.

A singular integro-differential equation model for dryout in LMFBR boiler tubes

A 2D steady model for the annular two-phase flow of water and steam in the steam-generating boiler pipes of a liquid metal fast breeder reactor is proposed The model is based on thin-layer lubrication theory and thin aerofoil theory. The exchange of mass between the vapour core and the liquid film due to evaporation of the liquid film is accounted for using some simple thermodynamics models, and the resultant change of phase is modelled by proposing a suitable Stefan problem Appropriate boundary conditions for the now are discussed The resulting non-lineal singular integro-differential equation for the shape of the liquid film free surface is solved both asymptotically and numerically (using some regularization techniques) Predictions for the length to the dryout point from the entry of the annular regime are made The influence of both the traction tau provided by the fast-flowing vapour core on the liquid layer and the mass transfer parameter eta on the dryout length is investigated

Plane curve diagrams and geometrical applications

We look at plane curve diagrams (f,alpha), which are given by a plane curve multigerm alpha : (R, S) -> R(2) and a function on it f : (R, S) -> R. We obtain a classification of all such diagrams, where alpha has e-codimension <= 2 and f has finite order. Then we define an equivalence between plane curves which we call Ah(alpha)-equivalence and which is determined by the class of the diagram (h(alpha), alpha). Here, h alpha denotes the height function of alpha with respect to its normal vector. This is an equivalence which not only takes into account the topology of the singularity of alpha, but also its flat geometry. Finally, we apply our results in order to obtain a classification of all the plane projections of a generic space curve gamma embedded in R(3).

Magnetic interaction in exchange-biased bilayers: a first-order reversal curve analysis

The distributions of coercivities and magnetic interactions in a set of polycrystalline Ni(0.8)Fe(0.2)/FeMn bilayers have been determined using the first-order reversal curve (FORC) formalism. The thickness of the permalloy (Py) film was fixed at 10 nm (nominal), while that of the FeMn film varied within the range 0-20 nm. The FORC diagrams of each bilayer displayed two clearly distinguishable regions. The main region was generated by Py particles whose coercivities were enhanced in comparison with those in which the FeMn film was absent (sample O). The minor region was produced by Py particles with coercivities similar to or slightly higher than those of particles in the Py film of sample O. Each sample presented two distributions of interaction fields, one for each region, and both were centred slightly below the exchange-bias field, thus indicating a prevalence of magnetizing interactions. These results are consistent with a grain size distribution in the Py layer and the presence of uncompensated antiferromagnetic moments.

First-order-reversal-curve analysis of Pr-Fe-B-based exchange spring magnets

Ribbons of nominal composition (Pr(9.5)Fe(84.5)B(6))(0.96)Cr(0.01)(TiC)(0.03) were produced by arc-melting and melt-spinning the alloys on a Cu wheel. X-ray diffraction (XRD) reveals two main phases, one based upon alpha-Fe and the other upon Pr(2)Fe(14)B. The ribbons show exchange spring behavior with H (c) = 12.5 kOe and (BH)(max) = 13.6 MGOe when these two phases are well coupled. Transmission electron microscopy revealed the coupled behavior is observed when the microstructure consists predominantly of alpha-Fe grains (diameter similar to 100 nm.) surrounded by hard material containing Pr(2)Fe(14)B. The microstructure is discussed in terms of a calculation by Skomski and Coey. A first-order-reversal-curve (FORC) analysis was performed for both a well-coupled sample and a poorly coupled sample. The FORC diagrams show two strong peaks for both the poorly coupled sample and for the well-coupled material. In both cases, the localization of the FORC probability suggests magnetizing interactions between particles. Switching field distributions were calculated and are consistent with the sample microstructure.

First-order-reversal-curve analysis of Pr-Fe-B-based nanocomposites

Ribbons of nominal composition (Pr(9.5)Fe(84.5)B(6))(0.96)Cr(0.01)(TiC)(0.03) were produced by arc-melting and melt-spinning the alloys on a Cu wheel. X-ray diffraction reveals two main phases, one based upon alpha-Fe and the other upon Pr(2)Fe(14)B. The ribbons show exchange spring behavior with H(c)=12.5 kOe and (BH)(max)= 13.6 MGOe when these two phases are well coupled. Transmission electron microscopy revealed that the coupled behavior is observed when the microstructure consists predominantly of alpha-Fe grains(diameter similar to 100 nm.) surrounded by hard material containing Pr(2)Fe(14)B. A first-order-reversal-curve (FORC) analysis was performed for both a well-coupled sample and a partially-coupled sample. The FORC diagrams show two strong peaks for both the partially-coupled sample and for the well coupled material. In both cases, the localization of the FORC probability suggests demagnetizing interactions between particles. Switching field distributions were calculated and are consistent with the sample microstructure. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

First order reversal curve analysis of nanocrystalline Pd(80)Co(20) alloy films

Films of isotropic nanocrystalline Pd(80)Co(20) alloys were obtained by electrodeposition onto brass substrate in plating baths maintained at different pH values. Increasing the pH of the plating bath led to an increase in mean grain size without inducing significant changes in the composition of the alloy. The magnetocrystalline anisotropy constant was estimated and the value was of the same order of magnitude as that reported for samples with perpendicular magnetic anisotropy. First order reversal curve (FORC) analysis revealed the presence of an important component of reversible magnetization. Also, FORC diagrams obtained at different sweep rate of the applied magnetic field, revealed that this reversible component is strongly affected by kinetic effect. The slight bias observed in the irreversible part of the FORC distribution suggested the dominance of magnetizing intergrain exchange coupling over demagnetizing dipolar interactions and microstructural disorder. (c) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.