The Welsh Marches: Resilient Farmers? Exploring Farmers' Resilience to Extreme Weather Events in the Recent Past

In the 21st century climate change will cause a significant increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events across Europe. Investigating farmers’ resilience to extreme weather events in the past can be used to establish the inherent level of resilience farmers’ will have to respond to comparable events in the future. The Welsh Marches has experienced a range of extreme weather events including: heatwaves, flooding; prolonged rainfall; and heavy snowfall. To identify the resilience of farmers in the Marches farmers’ apparent vulnerabilities, coping capacity, social capital and adaptive capacity that have been exposed in past events are discussed. Rural isolation is identified as an exacerbating factor of farming vulnerability. Yet, this is also an apparent source of resilience as farmers are found to rely on high social capital to assist each other in emergency and challenging situations during extreme weather events. The paper concludes by indicating that more localised studies are required, situated within unique farming cultures. This will enable a more complete picture of farmers’ resilience across Europe to be established.

The Effects of World War II on Significant Composers of Music for the Flute

World War II was one of the most devastating events in history, and it profoundly affected European culture and art. I examined the period around World War II, and the effects it had on the lives of composers and their flute music. I investigated who wrote for flute during the war, what they were composing, and what effects, if any, the war had on them and their music. After examining the biographies of nine composers and studying eleven of their works, I found that in some cases the war affected their flute music, but in others the music shows no apparent influences of the war. Interestingly, most of the flute music written by composers affected by World War II was happy and joyful rather than dark and dismal. I performed three recitals during my research. I studied nine composers and performed some of their most important works for flute. Recital One is “Sonatas for Flute.” Recital Two is “Virtuosic Flute Music,” and my final recital is “Emotional Overview of Flute Music During World War II.” I discovered that many of these composers had to change their lives in drastic ways due to the war, but most them wrote music that had did not reflect the horror or destruction of war—perhaps music represented an escape from their horrible circumstances, or an effort to recall better times. I also found that a few of these composers used music to mock the Nazi regime. They used music as an emotional outlet, which could have been dangerous for them during that time. Other composers used music to share their own personal experiences while fighting in the war.

Posidonia oceanica (L.) Delile in its westernmost biogeographical limit (northwestern Alboran Sea): Meadows characterisation, phenology and flowering events

Posidonia oceanica is a Mediterranean endemic seagrass species that forms meadows covering ca. 2.5–4.5 millions of hectares, representing ca.25 % of the infralittoral and shallow circalittoral (down to 50m) bottoms of the Mediterranean. This seagrass is considered a habitat-engineer species and provides an elevated number of ecosystem services. In addition the Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD, 2008/56/EC) includes seagrass like elements to evaluate the “Good Environmental Status” of the European coasts. Information about their phenological characteristic and structure of the meadows is needed for indicator estimations in order to establish their conservation status. The studied meadows are located in the westernmost limit of the P. oceanica distribution (North-western Alboran Sea) in the vecinity of the Strait of Gibraltar, an Atlantic-Mediterranean water transition area. Four sites were selected from East to West: Paraje Natural de Acantilados de Maro-Cerro Gordo (hereafter Maro), Special Area of Conservation “Calahonda” (hereafter Calahonda), Site of Community Importance Estepona (hereafter Estepona) and Punta Chullera (hereafter Chullera) where P. oceanica present their westernmost meadows. Phenological data were recorded from mid November to mid December in P. oceanica patches located at 2 – 3 m depth. At each site three types of patches (patch area <1m2, small patches; 1-2 m2, medium patches and >2 m2, large patches) were sampled. At each patch and site, 3 quadrants of 45 x 45 cm were sampled for shoot and inflorescences density measurements. In each quadrant, 10 random shoots were sampled for shoot morphology (shoot height and number of leaves). Shoot and inflorescences densities were standardized to squared meters. All the studied P. oceanica meadows develop on rocks and they present a fragmented structure with a coverage ranging between ca. 45% in Calahonda and Estepona and ca. 31% in Maro. The meadows of Chullera are reduced to a few small - medium patches with areas ranging between 0.5-1.5 m2 (Fig. 1). The meadows of Chullera and Estepona presented similar values of shoot density (ca. 752 – 662 shoots m-2, respectively) and leaf height (ca. 25 cm). Similarly, the Calahonda and Maro meadows also showed similar values of shoot density (ca. 510 – 550 shoots m-2, respectively) but displaying lower values than those of sites located closer to the Strait of Gibraltar. Regarding patch sizes and leaf height, the longest leaves (ca. 25 cm) were found in medium and large patches, but the number of leaves per shoot were higher in the small and the medium size patches (ca. 6.3 leaves per shoot). Flowering was only detected at the Calahonda meadows with maximum values of ca. 330 inflorescences m-2 (115.2 ± 98.2 inflorescences m-2, n= 9; mean ± SD) (Fig.1). Inflorescence density was not significant different among patches of different sizes. In the Alboran Sea and unlike the studied meadows, extensive beds of P. oceanica occur at the National Park of Cabo de Gata (northeastern Alboran Sea), but from east to west (Strait of Gibraltar), meadows are gradually fragmenting and their depth range decrease from 30m to 2m depth between Cabo de Gata and Chullera, respectively. Probably, the Atlantic influence and the characteristic oceanographic conditions of the Alboran Sea (i.e., higher turbidity, higher water turbulence) represent a developmental limiting factor for P. oceanica at higher depths. Similarities between the meadows located closer to Strait of Gibraltar (Chullera and Estepona) were detected as well as between those more distant (Calahonda and Maro). The first ones showed higher values of shoot densities and leaf heights than the formers, which could be relating to the higher hydrodynamic exposure found at Chullera and Estepona meadows. Regarding flowering events, sexual reproduction in P. oceanica is not common in different locations of the Mediterranean Sea. The available information seems to indicate that flowering represent an irregular event and it is related to high seawater temperature. In fact, the flowering episodes that occurred in Calahonda in November 2015, match with the warmest year ever recorded. This is the third flowering event registered in these meadows located close to the westernmost distributional limit of P. oceanica (Málaga, Alboran Sea), which could indicates that these meadows presents a healthy status. Furthermore, the absence of significant differences in relation to inflorescence density between patches of different sizes may be indicating that the fragmentation does not necessarily influence on the flowering of this seagrass species.

Estimation of Convective Extreme Events over Germany based on Large Scale Parameters

Strong convective events can produce extreme precipitation, hail, lightning or gusts, potentially inducing severe socio-economic impacts. These events have a relatively small spatial extension and, in most cases, a short lifetime. In this study, a model is developed for estimating convective extreme events based on large scale conditions. It is shown that strong convective events can be characterized by a Weibull distribution of radar-based rainfall with a low shape and high scale parameter value. A radius of 90km around a station reporting a convective situation turned out to be suitable. A methodology is developed to estimate the Weibull parameters and thus the occurrence probability of convective events from large scale atmospheric instability and enhanced near-surface humidity, which are usually found on a larger scale than the convective event itself. Here, the probability for the occurrence of extreme convective events is estimated from the KO-index indicating the stability, and relative humidity at 1000hPa. Both variables are computed from ERA-Interim reanalysis. In a first version of the methodology, these two variables are applied to estimate the spatial rainfall distribution and to estimate the occurrence of a convective event. The developed method shows significant skill in estimating the occurrence of convective events as observed at synoptic stations, lightning measurements, and severe weather reports. In order to take frontal influences into account, a scheme for the detection of atmospheric fronts is implemented. While generally higher instability is found in the vicinity of fronts, the skill of this approach is largely unchanged. Additional improvements were achieved by a bias-correction and the use of ERA-Interim precipitation. The resulting estimation method is applied to the ERA-Interim period (1979-2014) to establish a ranking of estimated convective extreme events. Two strong estimated events that reveal a frontal influence are analysed in detail. As a second application, the method is applied to GCM-based decadal predictions in the period 1979-2014, which were initialized every year. It is shown that decadal predictive skill for convective event frequencies over Germany is found for the first 3-4 years after the initialization.

Numerical simulations of significant orographic precipitation in Madeira island

High-resolution simulations of high precipitation events with the MESO-NHmodel are presented, and also used to verify that increasing horizontal resolution in zones of complex orography, such as in Madeira island, improve the simulation of the spatial distribution and total precipitation. The simulations succeeded in reproducing the general structure of the cloudy systems over the ocean in the four periods considered of significant accumulated precipitation. The accumulated precipitation over theMadeirawas better represented with the 0.5 km horizontal resolution and occurred under four distinct synoptic situations. Different spatial patterns of the rainfall distribution over the Madeira have been identified

Emotions in the Experiential Consumption of Mobile Phones

Although marketers have a strong interest in finding ways to engage with consumers through mobile phones, the everyday experiential, or affective consumption practices surrounding this technology have received limited attention in the literature. To address this limitation, we used appraisal theory, which specifies it is the way individuals appraise situations or events that elicit emotions. We conducted an experience sampling method study to explore the emotions that individuals experience during their interactions with and through their mobile phones and what situations or events elicit these emotions. The preliminary findings show a number of significant relationships between emotions and specfic clusters of situations and events. Additionally, age and gender were also important indicators. The research contributes to a deeper understanding of the experiential nature of mobile information technologies through consumers’ everyday-consumption-related emotions and the situations and events that elicit them.

An investigation of nucleation events in a coastal urban environment in the southern hemisphere

The occurrence of and conditions favourable to nucleation were investigated at an industrial and commercial coastal location in Brisbane, Australia during five different campaigns covering a total period of 13 months. To identify potential nucleation events, the difference in number concentration in the size range 14-30 nm (N14-30) between consecutive observations was calculated using first-order differencing. The data showed that nucleation events were a rare occurrence, and that in the absence of nucleation the particle number was dominated by particles in the range 30-300 nm. In many instances, total particle concentration declined during nucleation. There was no clear pattern in change in NO and NO2 concentrations during the events. SO2 concentration, in the majority of cases, declined during nucleation but there were exceptions. Most events took place in summer, followed by winter and then spring, and no events were observed for the autumn campaigns. The events were associated with sea breeze and long-range transport. Roadside emissions, in contrast, did not contribute to nucleation, probably due to the predominance of particles in the range 50-100 nm associated with these emissions.

New particle formation and growth at a remote, sub-tropical coastal location

A month-long intensive measurement campaign was conducted in March/April 2007 at Agnes Water, a remote coastal site just south of the Great Barrier Reef on the east coast of Australia. Particle and ion size distributions were continuously measured during the campaign. Coastal nucleation events were observed in clean, marine air masses coming from the south-east on 65% of the days. The events usually began at ~10:00 local time and lasted for 1-4 hrs. They were characterised by the appearance of a nucleation mode with a peak diameter of ~10 nm. The freshly nucleated particles grew within 1-4 hrs up to sizes of 20-50 nm. The events occurred when solar intensity was high (~1000 W m-2) and RH was low (~60%). Interestingly, the events were not related to tide height. The volatile and hygroscopic properties of freshly nucleated particles (17-22.5 nm), simultaneously measured with a volatility-hygroscopicity-tandem differential mobility analyser (VH-TDMA), were used to infer chemical composition. The majority of the volume of these particles was attributed to internally mixed sulphate and organic components. After ruling out coagulation as a source of significant particle growth, we conclude that the condensation of sulphate and/or organic vapours was most likely responsible for driving particle growth during the nucleation events. We cannot make any direct conclusions regarding the chemical species that participated in the initial particle nucleation. However, we suggest that nucleation may have resulted from the photo-oxidation products of unknown sulphur or organic vapours emitted from the waters of Hervey Bay, or from the formation of DMS-derived sulphate clusters over the open ocean that were activated to observable particles by condensable vapours emitted from the nutrient rich waters around Fraser Island or Hervey Bay. Furthermore, a unique and particularly strong nucleation event was observed during northerly wind. The event began early one morning (08:00) and lasted almost the entire day resulting in the production of a large number of ~80 nm particles (average modal concentration during the event was 3200 cm-3). The Great Barrier Reef was the most likely source of precursor vapours responsible for this event.