A Method for Estimating Short-term Profitability, Case Stora Enso Packaging Boards

Tutkimuksen tavoitteena oli rakentaa case yritykselle malli lyhyen aikavälin kannattavuuden estimointia varten. Tutkimusmetodi on konstruktiivinen, ja malli kehitettiin laskentaihmisten avustuksella. Teoriaosassa käytiin kirjallisuuskatsauksen avulla läpi kannattavuutta, budjetointia sekä itse ennustamista. Teoriaosassa pyrittiin löytämään sellaisia menetelmiä, joita voitaisiin käyttää lyhyen aikavälin kannattavuuden estimoinnissa. Rakennettavalle mallille asetettujen vaatimusten mukaan menetelmäksi valittiin harkintaan perustuva menetelmä (judgmental). Tutkimuksen mukaan kannattavuuteen vaikuttaa myyntihinta ja –määrä, tuotanto, raaka-aineiden hinnat ja varaston muutos. Rakennettu malli toimii kohdeyrityksessä kohtalaisen hyvin ja huomattavaa on se, että eri tehtaiden ja eri koneiden väliset erot saattavat olla kohtuullisen suuret. Nämä erot johtuvat pääasiassa tehtaan koosta ja mallien erilaisuudesta. Mallin käytännön toimivuus tulee kuitenkin parhaiten selville silloin, kun se on laskentaihmisten käytössä. Ennustamiseen liittyy kuitenkin aina omat ongelmansa ja uudetkaan menetelmät eivät välttämättä poista näitä ongelmia.

Short-Term Heparin Kinetics during Catheter Ablation of Atrial Fibrillation.

BACKGROUND: Percutaneous catheter ablation of atrial fibrillation (CA-AF) is a treatment option for symptomatic drug-refractory atrial fibrillation (AF). CA-AF carries a risk for thromboembolic complications that has been minimized by the use of intraprocedural intravenous unfractionated heparin (UFH). The optimal administration of UFH as well as its kinetics are not well established and need to be precisely determined. METHODS AND RESULTS: A total 102 of consecutive patients suffering from symptomatic drug-refractory AF underwent CA-AF. The mean age was 61 ± 10 years old. After transseptal puncture of the fossa ovalis, weight-adjusted UFH bolus (100 U/kg) was infused. A significant increase in activated clotting time (ACT) was observed from an average value of 100 ± 27 seconds at baseline, to 355 ± 94 seconds at 10 min (T10), to 375 ± 90 seconds at 20 min (T20). Twenty-four patients failed to reach the targeted ACT value of ≥300 seconds at T10 and more than half of these remained with subtherapeutic ACT values at T20. This subset of patients showed similar clinical characteristics and amount of UFH but were more frequently prescribed preprocedural vitamin K1 than the rest of the study population. CONCLUSIONS: In a typical intervention setting, UFH displays unexpected slow anticoagulation kinetics in a significant proportion of procedures up to 20 minutes after infusion. These findings support the infusion of UFH before transseptal puncture or any left-sided catheterization with early ACT measurements to identify patients with delayed kinetics. They are in line with recent guidelines to perform CA-AF under therapeutic anticoagulation.

Drug-eluting stents compared to bare-metal stents improve short-term survival in patients with acute myocardial infarction undergoing primary percutaneous coronary intervention: a nationwide prospective analysis of the AMIS Plus registry.

BACKGROUND: Recently, it has been suggested that the type of stent used in primary percutaneous coronary interventions (pPCI) might impact upon the outcomes of patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI). Indeed, drug-eluting stents (DES) reduce neointimal hyperplasia compared to bare-metal stents (BMS). Moreover, the later generation DES, due to its biocompatible polymer coatings and stent design, allows for greater deliverability, improved endothelial healing and therefore less restenosis and thrombus generation. However, data on the safety and performance of DES in large cohorts of AMI is still limited. AIM: To compare the early outcome of DES vs. BMS in AMI patients. METHODS: This was a prospective, multicentre analysis containing patients from 64 hospitals in Switzerland with AMI undergoing pPCI between 2005 and 2013. The primary endpoint was in-hospital all-cause death, whereas the secondary endpoint included a composite measure of major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events (MACCE) of death, reinfarction, and cerebrovascular event. RESULTS: Of 20,464 patients with a primary diagnosis of AMI and enrolled to the AMIS Plus registry, 15,026 were referred for pPCI and 13,442 received stent implantation. 10,094 patients were implanted with DES and 2,260 with BMS. The overall in-hospital mortality was significantly lower in patients with DES compared to those with BMS implantation (2.6% vs. 7.1%,p < 0.001). The overall in-hospital MACCE after DES was similarly lower compared to BMS (3.5% vs. 7.6%, p < 0.001). After adjusting for all confounding covariables, DES remained an independent predictor for lower in-hospital mortality (OR 0.51,95% CI 0.40-0.67, p < 0.001). Since groups differed as regards to baseline characteristics and pharmacological treatment, we performed a propensity score matching (PSM) to limit potential biases. Even after the PSM, DES implantation remained independently associated with a reduced risk of in-hospital mortality (adjusted OR 0.54, 95% CI 0.39-0.76, p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: In unselected patients from a nationwide, real-world cohort, we found DES, compared to BMS, was associated with lower in-hospital mortality and MACCE. The identification of optimal treatment strategies of patients with AMI needs further randomised evaluation; however, our findings suggest a potential benefit with DES.

Short-term HIIT and Fatmax training increase aerobic and metabolic fitness in men with class II and III obesity.

OBJECTIVE: To compare the effects of two different 2-week-long training modalities [continuous at the intensity eliciting the maximal fat oxidation (Fatmax ) versus high-intensity interval training (HIIT)] in men with class II and III obesity. METHODS: Nineteen men with obesity (BMI ≥ 35 kg(.) m(-2) ) were assigned to Fatmax group (GFatmax ) or to HIIT group (GHIIT ). Both groups performed eight cycling sessions matched for mechanical work. Aerobic fitness and fat oxidation rates (FORs) during exercise were assessed prior and following the training. Blood samples were drawn to determine hormones and plasma metabolites levels. Insulin resistance was assessed by the homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA2-IR). RESULTS: Aerobic fitness and FORs during exercise were significantly increased in both groups after training (P ≤ 0.001). HOMA2-IR was significantly reduced only for GFatmax (P ≤ 0.001). Resting non-esterified fatty acids (NEFA) and insulin decreased significantly only in GFatmax (P ≤ 0.002). CONCLUSIONS: Two weeks of HIIT and Fatmax training are effective for the improvement of aerobic fitness and FORs during exercise in these classes of obesity. The decreased levels of resting NEFA only in GFatmax may be involved in the decreased insulin resistance only in this group.

Short-term heparin kinetics during catheter ablation of atrial fibrillation

CONTEXTE: L'ablation percutanée par cathéter de la fibrillation auriculaire (AC-FA) est une option de traitement pour les patients souffrant de fibrillation auriculaire (FA) symptomatique réfractaire au traitement médicamenteux. L'AC-FA comporte un risque de complications thromboemboliques qui a été réduit par l'utilisation de l'héparine non fractionnée (HNF) intraveineuse durant la procédure. L'administration optimale de l'HNF ainsi que sa cinétique ne sont pas bien établies et nécessitent d'être déterminées avec précision. MÉTHODES ET RÉSULTATS: Cette étude a inclus 102 patients consécutifs atteints de FA symptomatique, réfractaire au traitement médicamenteux, référés pour une AC-FA. L'âge moyen était de 61 ± 10 ans. Après une ponction transseptale de la fosse ovale, une injection intraveineuse de HNF ajustée au poids (100 U / kg) a été administré. Une augmentation significative du temps de coagulation activé (ACT) a été observée passant d'une valeur de base moyenne de 100 ± 27 secondes, à 355 ± 94 secondes à 10 minutes (T10) et à 375 ± 90 secondes à 20 minutes (T20). 24 patients n'ont pas atteint la valeur visée d'ACT > 300 secondes à T10 et plus de la moitié de ce collectif est resté avec les valeurs d'ACT infrathérapeutiques à T20. Ce sous-ensemble de patients avait des caractéristiques cliniques similaires et avait reçu des doses similaires d'HNF, mais s'était plus fréquemment fait prescrire de la vitamine Kl pré-procédurale que le reste de la population de l'étude. CONCLUSION: Au cours d'une intervention standard, l'HNF montre, de manière inattendue, une cinétique d'anticoagulation lente dans une proportion significative des procédures et ceci jusqu'à 20 minutes après l'administration. Ces résultats soutiennent l'importance d'une administration d'HNF avant la ponction transseptale ou tout cathétérisme gauche avec des mesures précoces et répétées d'ACT afin d'identifier les patients avec une cinétique retardée. Ils sont en ligne avec les directives récentes proposant d'effectuer l'AC-FA sous anticoagulation thérapeutique.

Optimization of short term power trading between Russia, Finland and Baltic countries

Russian and Baltic electricity markets are in the process of reformation and development on the way for competitive and transparent market. Nordic market also undergoes some changes on the way to market integration. Old structure and practices have been expired whereas new laws and rules come into force. The master thesis describes structure and functioning of wholesale electricity markets, cross-border connections between different countries. Additionally methods of cross-border trading using different methods of capacity allocation are disclosed. The main goal of present thesis is to study current situation at different electricity markets and observe changes coming into force as well as the capacity and electricity balances forecast in order to optimize short term power trading between countries and estimate the possible profit for the company.

Framework for Traffic Pattern Identification: Required Step for Short-term Forecasting

In the world of transport management, the term ‘anticipation’ is gradually replacing ‘reaction’. Indeed, the ability to forecast traffic evolution in a network should ideally form the basis for many traffic management strategies and multiple ITS applications. Real-time prediction capabilities are therefore becoming a concrete need for the management of networks, both for urban and interurban environments, and today’s road operator has increasingly complex and exacting requirements. Recognising temporal patterns in traffic or the manner in which sequential traffic events evolve over time have been important considerations in short-term traffic forecasting. However, little work has been conducted in the area of identifying or associating traffic pattern occurrence with prevailing traffic conditions. This paper presents a framework for detection pattern identification based on finite mixture models using the EM algorithm for parameter estimation. The computation results have been conducted taking into account the traffic data available in an urban network.

The effectiveness of short-term literacy skills intervention on children at risk of reading and writing difficulties in Tanzania : a study of grade one children with dynamic assessment approach

The aim of the study was to create and evaluate an intervention programme for Tanzanian children from a low-income area who are at risk of reading and writing difficulties. The learning difficulties, including reading and writing difficulties, are likely to be behind many of the common school problems in Tanzania, but they are not well understood, and research is needed. The design of the study included an identification and intervention phase with follow-up. A group based dynamic assessment approach was used in identifying children at risk of difficulties in reading and writing. The same approach was used in the intervention. The study was a randomized experiment with one experimental and two control groups. For the experimental and the control groups, a total of 96 (46 girls and 50 boys) children from grade one were screened out of 301 children from two schools in a low income urban area of Dar-es-Salaam. One third of the children, the experimental group, participated in an intensive training programme in literacy skills for five weeks, six hours per week, aimed at promoting reading and writing ability, while the children in the control groups had a mathematics and art programme. Follow-up was performed five months after the intervention. The intervention programme and the tests were based on the Zambian BASAT (Basic Skill Assessment Tool, Ketonen & Mulenga, 2003), but the content was drawn from the Kiswahili school curriculum in Tanzania. The main components of the training and testing programme were the same, only differing in content. The training process was different from traditional training in Tanzanian schools in that principles of teaching and training in dynamic assessment were followed. Feedback was the cornerstone of the training and the focus was on supporting the children in exploring knowledge and strategies in performing the tasks. The experimental group improved significantly more (p = .000) than the control groups during the intervention from pre-test to follow-up (repeated measures ANOVA). No differences between the control groups were noticed. The effect was significant on all the measures: phonological awareness, reading skills, writing skills and overall literacy skills. A transfer effect on school marks in Kiswahili and English was found. Following a discussion of the results, suggestions for further research and adaptation of the programme are presented.

Optimal trading of wind power in the short term market

The energy reform, which is happening all over the world, is caused by the common concern of the future of the humankind in our shared planet. In order to keep the effects of the global warming inside of a certain limit, the use of fossil fuels must be reduced. The marginal costs of the renewable sources, RES are quite high, since they are new technology. In order to induce the implementation of RES to the power grid and lower the marginal costs, subsidies were developed in order to make the use of RES more profitable. From the RES perspective the current market is developed to favor conventional generation, which mainly uses fossil fuels. Intermittent generation, like wind power, is penalized in the electricity market since it is intermittent and thus diffi-cult to control. Therefore, the need of regulation and thus the regulation costs to the producer differ, depending on what kind of generation market participant owns. In this thesis it is studied if there is a way for market participant, who has wind power to use the special characteristics of electricity market Nord Pool and thus reach the gap between conventional generation and the intermittent generation only by placing bids to the market. Thus, an optimal bid is introduced, which purpose is to minimize the regulation costs and thus lower the marginal costs of wind power. In order to make real life simulations in Nord Pool, a wind power forecast model was created. The simulations were done in years 2009 and 2010 by using a real wind power data provided by Hyötytuuli, market data from Nord Pool and wind forecast data provided by Finnish Meteorological Institute. The optimal bid needs probability intervals and therefore the methodology to create probability distributions is introduced in this thesis. In the end of the thesis it is shown that the optimal bidding improves the position of wind power producer in the electricity market.

Crop residues on short-term CO2 emissions in sugarcane production areas

The proper management of agricultural crop residues could produce benefits in a warmer, more drought-prone world. Field experiments were conducted in sugarcane production areas in the Southern Brazil to assess the influence of crop residues on the soil surface in short-term CO2 emissions. The study was carried out over a period of 50 days after establishing 6 plots with and without crop residues applied to the soil surface. The effects of sugarcane residues on CO2 emissions were immediate; the emissions from residue-covered plots with equivalent densities of 3 (D50) and 6 (D100) t ha-1 (dry mass) were less than those from non-covered plots (D0). Additionally, the covered fields had lower soil temperatures and higher soil moisture for most of the studied days, especially during the periods of drought. Total emissions were as high as 553.62 ± 47.20 g CO2 m-2, and as low as 384.69 ± 31.69 g CO2 m-2 in non-covered (D0) and covered plot with an equivalent density of 3 t ha-1 (D50), respectively. Our results indicate a significant reduction in CO2 emissions, indicating conservation of soil carbon over the short-term period following the application of sugarcane residues to the soil surface.

Short-term changes in handgrip strength, body composition, and lymphedema induced by breast cancer surgery

PURPOSE: This study investigated short-term changes in body composition, handgrip strength, and presence of lymphedema in women who underwent breast cancer surgery.METHODS: Ninety-five women participated in a cross-sectional study, divided into two groups: Control (n=46), with healthy women, and Experimental (n=49), with women six months after breast cancer surgery . The Experimental Group was subdivided into right total mastectomy (RTM, n=15), left total mastectomy (LTM, n=11), right quadrant (RQ, n=13), and left quadrant (LQ, n=10). It was also redistributed among women with presence (n=10) or absence (n=39) of lymphedema. Presence of lymphedema, handgrip strength, and body composition were assessed.RESULTS: Trunk lean mass and handgrip strength were decreased in the Experimental Group. Total lean mass was increased in the LTM compared to RTM or LQ. Left handgrip strength in LTM was decreased compared to RTM and RQ and in LQ compared to RTM and RQ. Finally, total lean mass, trunk fat mass, trunk lean mass, right and left arm lean mass were increased in women with lymphedema.CONCLUSIONS: Breast cancer survivors have changes in their body composition and in handgrip strength six months after surgery; however, the interaction between the type of surgery and its impact is unclear. Furthermore, women who developed lymphedema in this period showed more significant changes in the body composition, but they were not enough to cause impairment in handgrip strength.

Cysteine addition on short-term cooled boar semen preservation and its relationship with swine field fertility

Artificial insemination is routinely used in the swine industry to reduce the costs of production through to increase the efficiency of the refrigerated boar semen process. The objective of this study was to evaluate the effect of different levels of cysteine (CYS) added to the Beltsville Thawing Solution (BTS) extender semen during cooling for up to 72 hours. Ejaculated from three boars were collected with the gloved-hand technique and semen aliquots were diluted in BTS as follow: BTS only (BTS), BTS + 0.1mM cysteine (CYS0.1), BTS + 0.5mM cysteine (CYS0.5), BTS + 1.0mM cysteine (CYS1.0), BTS + 2.5mM cysteine (CYS2.5), BTS + 5.0mM cysteine (CYS5.0), BTS + 10.0mM cysteine (CYS10.0), and BTS + 20.0mM cysteine (CYS20.0). Evaluation of sperm integrity were analyzed using 0.5mg/ml propidium iodide (plasma membrane), 100µg/ml isothiocynate-conjugated Pisum sativun agglutinin (acrosomal membrane) and 153µM 5,5',6,6'-tetrachloro-1,1',3,3'-tetraethylbenzimidazolyl carbocyanine iodide (mitochondria potential) after semen dilution at specific times (0, 24, 48 and 72 hours). Additionally, we also evaluated the effects of 5.0 mM CYS addition in the BTS extender on the maintenance of sperm quality and their influence on fertility in the swine production. After artificial insemination, animals were evaluated based on the estrous return and the number of piglet's born. Cysteine at concentrations of 10.0 and 20.0mM resulted in more pronounced reductions even at the time zero. Semen viability decreased to levels below 10% at these high levels of CYS in the first 24 hour of storage at 17ºC. At the end of the storage time, less than 65% of sperm cells had intact plasma membrane in all groups. The sperm viability decreased significantly when the semen was added at high concentrations of CYS (time "0"; CYS10.0 and CYS20.0; p<0.05), when compared to the other CYS concentrations. The BTS (10.20±0.39) treated group showed a lower rate of estrus return when compared to other (BTSCYS; 86.05±039), and it showed also the highest total number of piglets borne per treatment (12.71±3.38 vs. 9.00±3.38, respectively). In conclusion, the addition of CYS in the BTS semen extender did not maintain spermatic viability of boar cooled spermatozoa and it results in a higher percentage of return to estrus and lower number of piglets borne.

Cesarean section - short term maternal complications related to the mode of delivery

Cesarean section (CS) is the most common major surgery performed on women worldwide. CS can save the life of the mother or the fetus, but is associated with the typical complications of any major surgery: hemorrhage, infection, venous thromboembolism and complications of anesthesia, sometimes leading to maternal death. Recently there have been several reports from well resourced countries on increased severe maternal morbidity and even mortality. Increased rates of CS, obesity and older mothers may explain this rise. The aim of this thesis is to study the rates and risk factors of short term maternal complications associated with CS. Also, we compared maternal morbidity by mode of delivery and over time. The complication rates were assessed in a prospective study involving 2496 CS performed in the 12 largest delivery units in Finland in 2005. The rates of severe complications were studied by mode of delivery in a register-based study comparing national cohorts in 1997 and 2002. The impact of several risk factors on severe maternal morbidity by mode of delivery was studied in a register-based study of all singleton deliveries in 2007-2011. In the prospective study, 27% of the women who underwent CS had one or more intraoperative or postoperative complications during their hospital stay, and 10% had a severe complication. In the register-based study the incidence of life-threatening maternal complications was 7.6 in 1000 deliveries. The incidence was lowest for vaginal delivery (VD), followed by instrumental VD and elective CS, and highest in emergency CS. An attempt of VD, including the risks associated with emergency CS, seems to be the safest mode of delivery, even for most high-risk women.