Forecasting with difference and trend stationary models

Although difference-stationary (DS) and trend-stationary (TS) processes have been subject to considerable analysis, there are no direct comparisons for each being the data-generation process (DGP). We examine incorrect choice between these models for forecasting for both known and estimated parameters. Three sets of Monte Carlo simulations illustrate the analysis, to evaluate the biases in conventional standard errors when each model is mis-specified, compute the relative mean-square forecast errors of the two models for both DGPs, and investigate autocorrelated errors, so both models can better approximate the converse DGP. The outcomes are surprisingly different from established results.

Multiple stationary solutions of an irradiated slab

A mathematical model describing the heat budget of an irradiated medium is introduced. The one-dimensional form of the equations and boundary conditions are presented and analysed. Heat transport at one face of the slab occurs by absorption (and reflection) of an incoming beam of short-wave radiation with a fraction of this radiation penetrating into the body of the slab, a diffusive heat flux in the slab and a prescribed incoming heat flux term. The other face of the slab is immersed in its own melt and is considered to be a free surface. Here, temperature continuity is prescribed and evolution of the surface is determined by a Stefan condition. These boundary conditions are flexible enough to describe a range of situations such as a laser shining on an opaque medium, or the natural environment of polar sea ice or lake ice. A two-stream radiation model is used which replaces the simple Beer’s law of radiation attenuation frequently used for semi-infinite domains. The stationary solutions of the governing equations are sought and it is found that there exists two possible stationary solutions for a given set of boundary conditions and a range of parameter choices. It is found that the existence of two stationary solutions is a direct result of the model of radiation absorption, due to its effect on the albedo of the medium. A linear stability analysis and numerical calculations indicate that where two stationary solutions exist, the solution corresponding to a larger thickness is always stable and the solution corresponding to a smaller thickness is unstable. Numerical simulations reveal that when there are two solutions, if the slab is thinner than the smaller stationary thickness it will melt completely, whereas if the slab is thicker than the smaller stationary thickness it will evolve toward the larger stationary thickness. These results indicate that other mechanisms (e.g. wave-induced agglomeration of crystals) are necessary to grow a slab from zero initial thickness in the parameter regime that yields two stationary solutions.

Synoptic versus orographic control on stationary convective banding

Quasi-stationary convective bands can cause large localised rainfall accumulations and are often anchored by topographic features. Here, the predictability of and mechanisms causing one such band are determined using ensembles of the Met Office Unified Model at convection-permitting resolution (1.5 km grid length). The band was stationary over the UK for 3 h and produced rainfall accumulations of up to 34 mm. The amount and location of the predicted rainfall was highly variable despite only small differences between the large-scale conditions of the ensemble members. Only three of 21 members of the control ensemble produced a stationary rain band; these three had the weakest upstream winds and hence lowest Froude number. Band formation was due to the superposition of two processes: lee-side convergence resulting from flow around an upstream obstacle and thermally forced convergence resulting from elevated heating over the upstream terrain. Both mechanisms were enhanced when the Froude number was lower. By increasing the terrain height (thus reducing the Froude number), the band became more predictable. An ensemble approach is required to successfully predict the possible occurrence of such quasi-stationary convective events because the rainfall variability is largely modulated by small variations of the large-scale flow. However, high-resolution models are required to accurately resolve the small-scale interactions of the flow with the topography upon which the band formation depends. Thus, although topography provides some predictability, the quasi-stationary convective bands anchored by it are likely to remain a forecasting challenge for many years to come.

The utility of convection-permitting ensembles for the prediction of stationary convective bands

This study examines convection-permitting numerical simulations of four cases of terrain-locked quasi-stationary convective bands over the UK. For each case, a 2.2-km grid-length 12-member ensemble and 1.5-km grid-length deterministic forecast are analyzed, each with two different initialization times. Object-based verification is applied to determine whether the simulations capture the structure, location, timing, intensity and duration of the observed precipitation. These verification diagnostics reveal that the forecast skill varies greatly between the four cases. Although the deterministic and ensemble simulations captured some aspects of the precipitation correctly in each case, they never simultaneously captured all of them satisfactorily. In general, the models predicted banded precipitation accumulations at approximately the correct time and location, but the precipitating structures were more cellular and less persistent than the coherent quasi-stationary bands that were observed. Ensemble simulations from the two different initialization times were not significantly different, which suggests a potential benefit of time-lagging subsequent ensembles to increase ensemble size. The predictive skill of the upstream larger-scale flow conditions and the simulated precipitation on the convection-permitting grids were strongly correlated, which suggests that more accurate forecasts from the parent ensemble should improve the performance of the convection-permitting ensemble nested within it.

A new adaptive multiple modelling approach for non-linear and non-stationary systems

This paper proposes a novel adaptive multiple modelling algorithm for non-linear and non-stationary systems. This simple modelling paradigm comprises K candidate sub-models which are all linear. With data available in an online fashion, the performance of all candidate sub-models are monitored based on the most recent data window, and M best sub-models are selected from the K candidates. The weight coefficients of the selected sub-model are adapted via the recursive least square (RLS) algorithm, while the coefficients of the remaining sub-models are unchanged. These M model predictions are then optimally combined to produce the multi-model output. We propose to minimise the mean square error based on a recent data window, and apply the sum to one constraint to the combination parameters, leading to a closed-form solution, so that maximal computational efficiency can be achieved. In addition, at each time step, the model prediction is chosen from either the resultant multiple model or the best sub-model, whichever is the best. Simulation results are given in comparison with some typical alternatives, including the linear RLS algorithm and a number of online non-linear approaches, in terms of modelling performance and time consumption.

Non-stationary frequency analysis of extreme daily rainfall in Sao Paulo, Brazil

This work is an assessment of frequency of extreme values (EVs) of daily rainfall in the city of Sao Paulo. Brazil, over the period 1933-2005, based on the peaks-over-threshold (POT) and Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) approach. Usually. a GPD model is fitted to a sample of POT Values Selected With a constant threshold. However. in this work we use time-dependent thresholds, composed of relatively large p quantities (for example p of 0.97) of daily rainfall amounts computed from all available data. Samples of POT values were extracted with several Values of p. Four different GPD models (GPD-1, GPD-2, GPD-3. and GDP-4) were fitted to each one of these samples by the maximum likelihood (ML) method. The shape parameter was assumed constant for the four models, but time-varying covariates were incorporated into scale parameter of GPD-2. GPD-3, and GPD-4, describing annual cycle in GPD-2. linear trend in GPD-3, and both annual cycle and linear trend in GPD-4. The GPD-1 with constant scale and shape parameters is the simplest model. For identification of the best model among the four models WC used rescaled Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) with second-order bias correction. This criterion isolates GPD-3 as the best model, i.e. the one with positive linear trend in the scale parameter. The slope of this trend is significant compared to the null hypothesis of no trend, for about 98% confidence level. The non-parametric Mann-Kendall test also showed presence of positive trend in the annual frequency of excess over high thresholds. with p-value being virtually zero. Therefore. there is strong evidence that high quantiles of daily rainfall in the city of Sao Paulo have been increasing in magnitude and frequency over time. For example. 0.99 quantiles of daily rainfall amount have increased by about 40 mm between 1933 and 2005. Copyright (C) 2008 Royal Meteorological Society

CspC and CspD are essential for Caulobacter crescentus stationary phase survival

The cold shock response in bacteria involves the expression of low-molecular weight cold shock proteins (CSPs) containing a nucleic acid-binding cold shock domain (CSD), which are known to destabilize secondary structures on mRNAs, facilitating translation at low temperatures. Caulobacter crescentus cspA and cspB are induced upon cold shock, while cspC and cspD are induced during stationary phase. In this work, we determined a new coding sequence for the cspC gene, revealing that it encodes a protein containing two CSDs. The phenotypes of C. crescentus csp mutants were analyzed, and we found that cspC is important for cells to maintain viability during extended periods in stationary phase. Also, cspC and cspCD strains presented altered morphology, with frequent non-viable filamentous cells, and cspCD also showed a pronounced cell death at late stationary phase. In contrast, the cspAB mutant presented increased viability in this phase, which is accompanied by an altered expression of both cspC and cspD, but the triple cspABD mutant loses this characteristic. Taken together, our results suggest that there is a hierarchy of importance among the csp genes regarding stationary phase viability, which is probably achieved by a fine tune balance of the levels of these proteins.

SpdR, a Response Regulator Required for Stationary-Phase Induction of Caulobacter crescentus cspD

The cold shock protein (CSP) family includes small polypeptides that are induced upon temperature downshift and stationary phase. The genome of the alphaproteobacterium Caulobacter crescentus encodes four CSPs, with two being induced by cold shock and two at the onset of stationary phase. In order to identify the environmental signals and cell factors that are involved in cspD expression at stationary phase, we have analyzed cspD transcription during growth under several nutrient conditions. The results showed that expression of cspD was affected by the medium composition and was inversely proportional to the growth rate. The maximum levels of expression were decreased in a spoT mutant, indicating that ppGpp may be involved in the signalization for carbon starvation induction of cspD. A Tn5 mutant library was screened for mutants with reduced cspD expression, and 10 clones that showed at least a 50% reduction in expression were identified. Among these, a strain with a transposon insertion into a response regulator of a two-component system showed no induction of cspD at stationary phase. This protein (SpdR) was able to acquire a phosphate group from its cognate histidine kinase, and gel mobility shift assay and DNase I footprinting experiments showed that it binds to an inverted repeat sequence of the cspD regulatory region. A mutated SpdR with a substitution of the conserved aspartyl residue that is the probable phosphorylation site is unable to bind to the cspD regulatory region and to complement the spdR mutant phenotype.

Aging and stationary properties of non-equilibrium symmetrical three-state models

We consider a non-equilibrium three-state model whose dynamics is Markovian and displays the same symmetry as the three-state Potts model, i.e. the transition rates are invariant under the cyclic permutation of the states. Unlike the Potts model, detailed balance is, in general, not satisfied. The aging and the stationary properties of the model defined on a square lattice are obtained by means of large-scale Monte Carlo simulations. We show that the phase diagram presents a critical line, belonging to the three-state Potts universality class, that ends at a point whose universality class is that of the Voter model. Aging is considered on the critical line, at the Voter point and in the ferromagnetic phase.

Shared information in stationary states at criticality

We consider bipartitions of one-dimensional extended systems whose probability distribution functions describe stationary states of stochastic models. We define estimators of the information shared between the two subsystems. If the correlation length is finite, the estimators stay finite for large system sizes. If the correlation length diverges, so do the estimators. The definition of the estimators is inspired by information theory. We look at several models and compare the behaviors of the estimators in the finite-size scaling limit. Analytical and numerical methods as well as Monte Carlo simulations are used. We show how the finite-size scaling functions change for various phase transitions, including the case where one has conformal invariance.

Newton`s iterates can converge to non-stationary points

In this note we discuss the convergence of Newton`s method for minimization. We present examples in which the Newton iterates satisfy the Wolfe conditions and the Hessian is positive definite at each step and yet the iterates converge to a non-stationary point. These examples answer a question posed by Fletcher in his 1987 book Practical methods of optimization.

Comparing time-varying autoregressive structures of locally stationary processes

In this paper, a novel statistical test is introduced to compare two locally stationary time series. The proposed approach is a Wald test considering time-varying autoregressive modeling and function projections in adequate spaces. The covariance structure of the innovations may be also time- varying. In order to obtain function estimators for the time- varying autoregressive parameters, we consider function expansions in splines and wavelet bases. Simulation studies provide evidence that the proposed test has a good performance. We also assess its usefulness when applied to a financial time series.

Matrix Representation of the Stationary Measure for the Multispecies TASEP

In this work we construct the stationary measure of the N species totally asymmetric simple exclusion process in a matrix product formulation. We make the connection between the matrix product formulation and the queueing theory picture of Ferrari and Martin. In particular, in the standard representation, the matrices act on the space of queue lengths. For N > 2 the matrices in fact become tensor products of elements of quadratic algebras. This enables us to give a purely algebraic proof of the stationary measure which we present for N=3.

Iteration of closed geodesics in stationary Lorentzian manifolds

Following the lines of Bott in (Commun Pure Appl Math 9:171-206, 1956), we study the Morse index of the iterates of a closed geodesic in stationary Lorentzian manifolds, or, more generally, of a closed Lorentzian geodesic that admits a timelike periodic Jacobi field. Given one such closed geodesic gamma, we prove the existence of a locally constant integer valued map Lambda(gamma) on the unit circle with the property that the Morse index of the iterated gamma(N) is equal, up to a correction term epsilon(gamma) is an element of {0,1}, to the sum of the values of Lambda(gamma) at the N-th roots of unity. The discontinuities of Lambda(gamma) occur at a finite number of points of the unit circle, that are special eigenvalues of the linearized Poincare map of gamma. We discuss some applications of the theory.

Periodic geodesics and geometry of compact Lorentzian manifolds with a Killing vector field

We study the geometry and the periodic geodesics of a compact Lorentzian manifold that has a Killing vector field which is timelike somewhere. Using a compactness argument for subgroups of the isometry group, we prove the existence of one timelike non self-intersecting periodic geodesic. If the Killing vector field is nowhere vanishing, then there are at least two distinct periodic geodesics; as a special case, compact stationary manifolds have at least two periodic timelike geodesics. We also discuss some properties of the topology of such manifolds. In particular, we show that a compact manifold M admits a Lorentzian metric with a nowhere vanishing Killing vector field which is timelike somewhere if and only if M admits a smooth circle action without fixed points.