War and Natural Resource Exploitation

We build a theoretical framework that allows for endogenous conflict behaviour (i.e., fighting efforts) and for endogenous natural resource exploitation (i.e., speed, ownership, and investments). While depletion is spread in a balanced Hotelling fashion during peace, the presence of conflict creates incentives for rapacious extraction, as this lowers the stakes of future contest. This voracious extraction depresses total oil revenue, especially if world oil demand is relatively elastic and the government's weapon advantage is weak. Some of these political distortions can be overcome by bribing rebels or by government investment in weapons. The shadow of conflict can also make less efficient nationalized oil extraction more attractive than private extraction, as insecure property rights create a holdup problem for the private firm and lead to a lower license fee. Furthermore, the government fights less intensely than the rebels under private exploitation, which leads to more government turnover. Without credible commitment to future fighting efforts, private oil depletion is only lucrative if the government's non-oil office rents are large and weaponry powerful, which guarantees the government a stronger grip on office and makes the holdup problem less severe.

Anti-impérialisme et nouvelle gauche radicale dans la Suisse des années 68

Cette thèse entend apporter un éclairage sur l'histoire politique et sociale de la Suisse des années 68, en étudiant l'articulation entre les mouvements anti-impérialistes et la nouvelle gauche radicale, alors foisonnante. Il s'agit d'analyser cette période de contestation au prisme de l'anti-impérialisme révolutionnaire, lequel, dans le contexte de l'opposition à la guerre du Vietnam, a fortement imprégné le mouvement protestataire, en assignant notamment au tiers-monde le rôle de sujet de l'émancipation mondiale. Combinant une triple approche - chronologique, thématique et biographique - ce travail est structuré en quatre parties. La première partie esquisse un panorama des mouvements anti-impérialistes des années 1960 et 1970 en Suisse, avec une focalisation sur les «années anti-imp», entre 1968 et 1975. La deuxième interroge le rapport entre anti¬impérialisme et nouvelle gauche radicale, en proposant une typologie des principaux courants. La troisième partie s'attache à examiner le système de représentations du monde et de la Suisse véhiculé par le discours de l'extrême gauche. Prenant pour objet le militantisme, la dernière partie esquisse un portrait de groupe de la « génération anti-imp », fondé sur une enquête prosopographique et sur un corpus d'entretiens réalisés avec des militants de l'époque. L'étude révèle que l'anti-impérialisme a fourni à la contestation soixante-huitarde un cadre conceptuel et analytique, un facteur de structuration, ainsi qu'un vecteur de mobilisation. Il a en particulier permis à la gauche radicale suisse d'inscrire sa lutte anticapitaliste locale dans un horizon global d'émancipation. L'analyse de l'anti-impérialisme révolutionnaire, qui a connu son apogée dans les années 68 avant de connaître un déclin rapide et presque total, invite à appréhender cette « décennie mouvementée » comme la fin d'un long cycle politique. -- This thesis aims to shed light on the social and political history of Switzerland in the 1960s and 1970s by studying the relationship between anti-imperialist movements and the emerging new radical left. It analyses this time of rebellion through the prism of revolutionary anti-imperialism. In the context of opposition to the Vietnam War, anti-imperialism strongly influenced protest movements, notably by assigning to the Third World the role of main actor in the fight for global emancipation. Combining a threefold approach - chronological, thematic and biographical - this work is structured in four parts. The first part provides a panorama of the anti-imperialist movements of the long 1960s in Switzerland with a focus on the « anti-imp years » between 1968 and 1975. The second part questions the relationship between anti-imperialism and the new radical left and proposes a typology of its main currents. The third part examines how the radical left's discourse represented the world, and Switzerland in particular. The last part addresses the question of activism and outlines a group portrait of the « anti-imp generation » based on a prosopographical study and on a body of interviews with former activists. This study reveals that anti-imperialism, besides serving as an agent of mobilization, provided a conceptual and ideological framework, as well as a structuring factor, to the protest movements. In particular, it enabled the Swiss radical left to fit its local anti-capitalist struggle into a global horizon of emancipation. This analysis of revolutionary anti- imperialism, which had its heyday in the 1960s and 1970s before experiencing a rapid and almost total decline, thus invites us to see this « turbulent decade » as the end of a long political cycle.

Violence and displacement. Evidence from the Spanish civil war (1936-1939)

This paper explores the relationship between violence and displacement during civil war focusing on two different forms of population movements (i.e. incoming and outgoing), and two different forms of violence (i.e. direct and indirect). The paper explores the relationship between displacement and violence at the local level in the context of a civil war fought conventionally using fine-grained data from 1,062 municipalities of the region of Catalonia during the Spanish Civil War (1936-1939). First, the paper suggests that exogenous and endogenous to the war factors combine to generate patterns of resettlement. Second, the evidence indicates that, in acivil war context, refugee flows and violence are interrelated in multiple ways: the arrival of internal refugees in a locality promotes the perpetration of direct violence against civilians; this, in turn, triggers the departure of people from the locality when the other group approaches. Third, indirect violence (i.e. bombings) shows to be the most significant factor accounting for external displacement at the local level, suggesting that bombing can serve as a strong signal for civilians of the type of armed group they are facing. Finally, the Spanish case suggests that the demographic changes provoked by displacement, combined with the lethality of the conflict, are likely to have long-term political consequences.

The Swiss Willensnation at Risk: Teachers in the Cultural Gap during the First World War

As a neutral and multilingual country, Switzerland struggled with major domestic political conflicts during the First World War due to the two cultures of the French-speaking and German-speaking parts of the country. The divided cultural loyalties ('fossé moral', 'Röstigraben'), consisting of Swiss-Germans supporting Germany and Swiss-French supporting France, were discussed intensively in both of the main teachers' journals in Switzerland. Teachers felt the need to react and to promote unity from the beginning of the war. Despite the fact that the cantons are responsible for public education and, therefore, for the education of their students, teachers considered themselves called to educate their students to be national citizens rather than to be members of a language group. This threefold citizenship - communal, cantonal and national - was not scrutinised, but national unity became crucial due to the critical political circumstances. How did teachers promote and constitute citizenship for themselves and for their students in a nation united by free will during the First World War, a time of severe internal political conflicts?

War Signals: A Theory of Trade, Trust and Conflict

We construct a dynamic theory of civil conflict hinging on inter-ethnic trust and trade. The model economy is inhabitated by two ethnic groups. Inter-ethnic trade requires imperfectly observed bilateral investments and one group has to form beliefs on the average propensity to trade of the other group. Since conflict disrupts trade, the onset of a conflict signals that the aggressor has a low propensity to trade. Agents observe the history of conflicts and update their beliefs over time, transmitting them to the next generation. The theory bears a set of testable predictions. First, war is a stochastic process whose frequency depends on the state of endogenous beliefs. Second, the probability of future conflicts increases after each conflict episode. Third, "accidental" conflicts that do not reflect economic fundamentals can lead to a permanent breakdown of trust, plunging a society into a vicious cycle of recurrent conflicts (a war trap). The incidence of conflict can be reduced by policies abating cultural barriers, fostering inter-ethnic trade and human capital, and shifting beliefs. Coercive peace policies such as peacekeeping forces or externally imposed regime changes have instead no persistent effects.

Traducción de un fragmento del libro NS-Offizier war ich nicht de Ute Althaus

El presente trabajo consiste en la traducción del alemán al español de un fragmento del libro NS-Offizzier war ich nicht (Ute Althaus), en el cual se aborda el tópico del nacionalsocialismo desde el ámbito familiar y bajo una perspectiva psico-social.

Growth, Democracy, and Civil War

Does economic growth affect the likelihood of civil war? Answering this question requires dealing with reverse causation. Our approach exploits that international commodity prices have a significant effect on the income growth of Sub-Saharan African countries. We show that lower income growth makes civil war more likely in non-democracies. This effect is significantly weaker in democracies; as a result, we find no link between growth and civil war in these countries. Our reducedform results also indicate that lower international commodity price growth has no effect on civil war in democracies, but raises the likelihood of civil war incidence and onset in nondemocracies.