Pre-crash traffic flow trend analysis on motorways

Crashes on motorway contribute to a significant proportion (40-50%) of non-recurrent motorway congestions. Hence reduce crashes will help address congestion issues (Meyer, 2008). Crash likelihood estimation studies commonly focus on traffic conditions in a Short time window around the time of crash while longer-term pre-crash traffic flow trends are neglected. In this paper we will show, through data mining techniques, that a relationship between pre-crash traffic flow patterns and crash occurrence on motorways exists, and that this knowledge has the potential to improve the accuracy of existing models and opens the path for new development approaches. The data for the analysis was extracted from records collected between 2007 and 2009 on the Shibuya and Shinjuku lines of the Tokyo Metropolitan Expressway in Japan. The dataset includes a total of 824 rear-end and sideswipe crashes that have been matched with traffic flow data of one hour prior to the crash using an incident detection algorithm. Traffic flow trends (traffic speed/occupancy time series) revealed that crashes could be clustered with regards of the dominant traffic flow pattern prior to the crash. Using the k-means clustering method allowed the crashes to be clustered based on their flow trends rather than their distance. Four major trends have been found in the clustering results. Based on these findings, crash likelihood estimation algorithms can be fine-tuned based on the monitored traffic flow conditions with a sliding window of 60 minutes to increase accuracy of the results and minimize false alarms.

Pre-crash and non-crash traffic flow trends analysis on motorways

Crashes that occur on motorways contribute to a significant proportion (40-50%) of non-recurrent motorway congestions. Hence, reducing the frequency of crashes assists in addressing congestion issues (Meyer, 2008). Crash likelihood estimation studies commonly focus on traffic conditions in a short time window around the time of a crash while longer-term pre-crash traffic flow trends are neglected. In this paper we will show, through data mining techniques that a relationship between pre-crash traffic flow patterns and crash occurrence on motorways exists. We will compare them with normal traffic trends and show this knowledge has the potential to improve the accuracy of existing models and opens the path for new development approaches. The data for the analysis was extracted from records collected between 2007 and 2009 on the Shibuya and Shinjuku lines of the Tokyo Metropolitan Expressway in Japan. The dataset includes a total of 824 rear-end and sideswipe crashes that have been matched with crashes corresponding to traffic flow data using an incident detection algorithm. Traffic trends (traffic speed time series) revealed that crashes can be clustered with regards to the dominant traffic patterns prior to the crash. Using the K-Means clustering method with Euclidean distance function allowed the crashes to be clustered. Then, normal situation data was extracted based on the time distribution of crashes and were clustered to compare with the “high risk” clusters. Five major trends have been found in the clustering results for both high risk and normal conditions. The study discovered traffic regimes had differences in the speed trends. Based on these findings, crash likelihood estimation models can be fine-tuned based on the monitored traffic conditions with a sliding window of 30 minutes to increase accuracy of the results and minimize false alarms.

Lateral impact response and parametric studies of axially loaded square concrete filled steel tube columns

This paper presents a numerical study on the response of axially loaded slender square concrete filled steel tube (CFST) columns under low velocity lateral impact loading. A finite element analysis (FEA) model was developed using the explicit dynamic nonlinear finite element code LS -DYNA in which the strain rate effects of both steel and concrete, contact between steel tube and concrete and confinement effect provided by the steel tube for the concrete were considered. The model also benefited from a relatively recent feature of LS-DYNA for applying a pre-loading in the explicit solver. The developed numerical model was verified for its accuracy and adequacy by comparing the results with experimental results available in the literature. The verified model was then employed to conduct a parametric study to investigate the influence of axial load level, impact location, support conditions, and slenderness ratio on the response of the CFST columns. A good agreement between the numerical and experimental results was achieved. The model could reasonably predict the impact load-deflection history and deformed shape of the column at the end of the impact event. The results of the parametric study showed that whilst impact location, axial load level and slenderness ratio can have a significant effect on the peak impact force, residual lateral deflection and maximum lateral deflection, the influence of support fixity is minimal. With an increase of axial load to up to a certain level, the peak force increases; however, a further increase in the axial load causes a decrease in the peak force. Both residual lateral deflection and maximum lateral deflection increase as axial load level increases. Shifting the impact location towards the supports increases the peak force and reduces both residual and maximum lateral deflections. A rise in slenderness ratio decreases the peak force and increases the residual and maximum lateral deflections.

A pre-post evaluation of an ambulatory nutrition support service for malnourished patients post hospital discharge: a pilot study

Introduction Malnutrition is common among hospitalised patients, with poor follow-up of nutrition support post-discharge. Published studies on the efficacy of ambulatory nutrition support (ANS) for malnourished patients post-discharge are scarce. The aims of this study were to evaluate the rate of dietetics follow-up of malnourished patients post-discharge, before (2008) and after (2010) implementation of a new ANS service, and to evaluate nutritional outcomes post-implementation. Materials and Methods Consecutive samples of 261 (2008) and 163 (2010) adult inpatients referred to dietetics and assessed as malnourished using Subjective Global Assessment (SGA) were enrolled. All subjects received inpatient nutrition intervention and dietetic outpatient clinic follow-up appointments. For the 2010 cohort, ANS was initiated to provide telephone follow-up and home visits for patients who failed to attend the outpatient clinic. Subjective Global Assessment, body weight, quality of life (EQ-5D VAS) and handgrip strength were measured at baseline and five months post-discharge. Paired t-test was used to compare pre- and post-intervention results. Results In 2008, only 15% of patients returned for follow-up with a dietitian within four months post-discharge. After implementation of ANS in 2010, the follow-up rate was 100%. Mean weight improved from 44.0 ± 8.5kg to 46.3 ± 9.6kg, EQ-5D VAS from 61.2 ± 19.8 to 71.6 ± 17.4 and handgrip strength from 15.1 ± 7.1 kg force to 17.5 ± 8.5 kg force; p<0.001 for all. Seventy-four percent of patients improved in SGA score. Conclusion Ambulatory nutrition support resulted in significant improvements in follow-up rate, nutritional status and quality of life of malnourished patients post-discharge.

Through the eyes of the mentor : framing expectations within preservice teacher and mentor relationships

Mentoring relationships during pre-service education are a significant relationship through which emerging teachers negotiate their teacher identity (Iancu-Haddad & Oplatka, 2009; Hudson, 2010). It is therefore important to understand how mentor teachers frame their expectations. This paper explores mentoring relationships established within a Queensland partnership program funded through the Federal Government’s Improving Teacher Quality National Partnership Agreement (DEEWR, 2011). Within the broader policy context, these mentoring relationships were seen as an important space for pre-service teachers to experience cultural induction into Education Queensland schooling, and be advocates for quality teaching (Willis, Bahr, Bannah, & Welch, 2012). Interview and survey data from 14 teacher mentors were analysed using a dialectic constant comparison approach (Dick 2007). Three significant themes were identified. Mentor teachers’ understanding of their roles positioned pre-service teachers as either novices or alternatively as colleagues, and these had implications for the opportunities for learning that were then made available to the pre-service teachers. The mentor teacher’s beliefs about teaching as a practical craft, and how the mentor teachers judged a pre-service teacher’s “enthusiasm” were also analysed. Understanding the factors that guide teacher mentor approaches may inform future designs of mentoring and preservice teacher preparation programs.

Agreement between temporal and spatial gait parameters from an instrumented walkway and treadmill system at matched walking speed

Background Commercially available instrumented treadmill systems that provide continuous measures of temporospatial gait parameters have recently become available for clinical gait analysis. This study evaluated the level of agreement between temporospatial gait parameters derived from a new instrumented treadmill, which incorporated a capacitance-based pressure array, with those measured by a conventional instrumented walkway (criterion standard). Methods Temporospatial gait parameters were estimated from 39 healthy adults while walking over an instrumented walkway (GAITRite®) and instrumented treadmill system (Zebris) at matched speed. Differences in temporospatial parameters derived from the two systems were evaluated using repeated measures ANOVA models. Pearson-product-moment correlations were used to investigate relationships between variables measured by each system. Agreement was assessed by calculating the bias and 95% limits of agreement. Results All temporospatial parameters measured via the instrumented walkway were significantly different from those obtained from the instrumented treadmill (P < .01). Temporospatial parameters derived from the two systems were highly correlated (r, 0.79–0.95). The 95% limits of agreement for temporal parameters were typically less than ±2% of gait cycle duration. However, 95% limits of agreement for spatial measures were as much as ±5 cm. Conclusions Differences in temporospatial parameters between systems were small but statistically significant and of similar magnitude to changes reported between shod and unshod gait in healthy young adults. Temporospatial parameters derived from an instrumented treadmill, therefore, are not representative of those obtained from an instrumented walkway and should not be interpreted with reference to literature on overground walking.

Pitfalls in the use of kappa when interpreting agreement between multiple raters in reliability studies

OBJECTIVE To compare different reliability coefficients (exact agreement, and variations of the kappa (generalised, Cohen's and Prevalence Adjusted and Biased Adjusted (PABAK))) for four physiotherapists conducting visual assessments of scapulae. DESIGN Inter-therapist reliability study. SETTING Research laboratory. PARTICIPANTS 30 individuals with no history of neck or shoulder pain were recruited with no obvious significant postural abnormalities. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Ratings of scapular posture were recorded in multiple biomechanical planes under four test conditions (at rest, and while under three isometric conditions) by four physiotherapists. RESULTS The magnitude of discrepancy between the two therapist pairs was 0.04 to 0.76 for Cohen's kappa, and 0.00 to 0.86 for PABAK. In comparison, the generalised kappa provided a score between the two paired kappa coefficients. The difference between mean generalised kappa coefficients and mean Cohen's kappa (0.02) and between mean generalised kappa and PABAK (0.02) were negligible, but the magnitude of difference between the generalised kappa and paired kappa within each plane and condition was substantial; 0.02 to 0.57 for Cohen's kappa and 0.02 to 0.63 for PABAK, respectively. CONCLUSIONS Calculating coefficients for therapist pairs alone may result in inconsistent findings. In contrast, the generalised kappa provided a coefficient close to the mean of the paired kappa coefficients. These findings support an assertion that generalised kappa may lead to a better representation of reliability between three or more raters and that reliability studies only calculating agreement between two raters should be interpreted with caution. However, generalised kappa may mask more extreme cases of agreement (or disagreement) that paired comparisons may reveal.

Application of cepstrum pre-whitening for the diagnosis of bearing faults under variable speed conditions

Diagnostics of rolling element bearings involves a combination of different techniques of signal enhancing and analysis. The most common procedure presents a first step of order tracking and synchronous averaging, able to remove the undesired components, synchronous with the shaft harmonics, from the signal, and a final step of envelope analysis to obtain the squared envelope spectrum. This indicator has been studied thoroughly, and statistically based criteria have been obtained, in order to identify damaged bearings. The statistical thresholds are valid only if all the deterministic components in the signal have been removed. Unfortunately, in various industrial applications, characterized by heterogeneous vibration sources, the first step of synchronous averaging is not sufficient to eliminate completely the deterministic components and an additional step of pre-whitening is needed before the envelope analysis. Different techniques have been proposed in the past with this aim: The most widely spread are linear prediction filters and spectral kurtosis. Recently, a new technique for pre-whitening has been proposed, based on cepstral analysis: the so-called cepstrum pre-whitening. Owing to its low computational requirements and its simplicity, it seems a good candidate to perform the intermediate pre-whitening step in an automatic damage recognition algorithm. In this paper, the effectiveness of the new technique will be tested on the data measured on a full-scale industrial bearing test-rig, able to reproduce the harsh conditions of operation. A benchmark comparison with the traditional pre-whitening techniques will be made, as a final step for the verification of the potentiality of the cepstrum pre-whitening.

A pre-clinical functional assessment of an acellular scaffold intended for the treatment of hard-to-heal wounds

Dermal wound healing is a biochemical and cellular process critical to life. While the majority of the population will only ever experience successful wound healing outcomes, some 1-3 % of those aged over 65 years will experience wound healing delay or perpetuation. These hard-to-heal wounds are comprised of degraded and dysfunctional extracellular matrix, yet the integrity of this structure is critical in the processes of normal wound healing. As such, extracellular matrix replacements have been devised that can replace dysfunctional extracellular matrix in hard-to-heal wounds with the aim of restoring normal wound healing processes. Here we evaluated a novel synthetic matrix protein for its ability to act as an acellular scaffold that can replace dysfunctional extracellular matrix. In this regard the synthetic protein demonstrated an ability to rapidly adsorb to the dermal surface, permit cell attachment and facilitate the cellular functions essential to wound healing. When applied to deep partial thickness wounds in a porcine animal model the matrix protein also demonstrated the ability to reduce wound duration. These data provide evidence that the synthetic matrix protein has the ability to function as an acellular scaffold for wound healing purposes.

Visually impaired drivers who use bioptic telescopes : self-assessed driving skills and agreement with on-road driving evaluation

Purpose. To compare self-assessed driving habits and skills of licensed drivers with central visual loss who use bioptic telescopes to those of age-matched normally sighted drivers, and to examine the association between bioptic drivers' impressions of the quality of their driving and ratings by a “backseat” evaluator. Methods. Participants were licensed bioptic drivers (n = 23) and age-matched normally sighted drivers (n = 23). A questionnaire was administered addressing driving difficulty, space, quality, exposure, and, for bioptic drivers, whether the telescope was helpful in on-road situations. Visual acuity and contrast sensitivity were assessed. Information on ocular diagnosis, telescope characteristics, and bioptic driving experience was collected from the medical record or in interview. On-road driving performance in regular traffic conditions was rated independently by two evaluators. Results. Like normally sighted drivers, bioptic drivers reported no or little difficulty in many driving situations (e.g., left turns, rush hour), but reported more difficulty under poor visibility conditions and in unfamiliar areas (P < 0.05). Driving exposure was reduced in bioptic drivers (driving 250 miles per week on average vs. 410 miles per week for normally sighted drivers, P = 0.02), but driving space was similar to that of normally sighted drivers (P = 0.29). All but one bioptic driver used the telescope in at least one driving task, and 56% used the telescope in three or more tasks. Bioptic drivers' judgments about the quality of their driving were very similar to backseat evaluators' ratings. Conclusions. Bioptic drivers show insight into the overall quality of their driving and areas in which they experience driving difficulty. They report using the bioptic telescope while driving, contrary to previous claims that it is primarily used to pass the vision screening test at licensure.

"I can't believe I just said that": Using guided reflections with non-Indigenous pre-service teachers in Australia

This paper explores the use of guided narrative reflection as a strategy used with high-achieving non-Indigenous pre-service teachers in Australia on teaching practicum. We suggest that reflections (and subsequent dialogue) can provide opportunities for non-Indigenous preservice teachers to re-think their beliefs and actions in ways that may intervene in the teaching that often causes educational disadvantage for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander students.

Nonlinear pre-fire and post-fire analysis of steel frames

A numerical procedure based on the plastic hinge concept for study of the structural behaviour of steel framed structures exposed to fire is described. Most previous research on fire analysis considered the structural performance due to rising temperature. When strain reversal occurs during the cooling phase, the stress–strain curve is different. The plastic deformation is incorporated into the stress–strain curve to model the strain reversal effect in which unloading under elastic behaviour is allowed. This unloading response is traced by the incremental–iterative Newton–Raphson method. The mechanical properties of the steel member in the present fire analysis follows both Eurocode 3 Part 1.2 and BS5950 Part 8, which implicitly allow for thermal creep deformation. This paper presents an efficient fire analysis procedure for predicting thermal and cooling effects on an isolated element and a multi-storey frame. Several numerical and experimental examples related to structural behaviour in cooling phase are studied and compared with results obtained by other researchers. The proposed method is effective in the fire safety design and analysis of a building in a real fire scenario. The scope of investigation is of great significance since a large number of rescuers would normally enter a fire site as soon as the fire is extinguished and during the cooling phase, so a structural collapse can be catastrophic.

Vulnerability held not to be pre-requisite for establishing a duty of care in claims of pure economic Loss

Case note Apache Energy Ltd v Alcoa of Australia Ltd (No 2) [2013] In 2011, headlines were made when Alcoa sued Apache Energy and its partners for $158 million, a loss it claimed was a consequence of Apache Energy failing to adequately inspect and maintain the gas pipelines that supplied the gas used by Alcoa in its business. As the loss was not a consequence of any property damage or injury to Alcoa, the loss is characterised as pure economic loss...