Psychoses a l'adolescence, les neurosciences ameliorent-elles la prediction? [Adolescent psychosis, can neuroscience improve prediction?]

Developments in the field of neuroscience have created a high level of interest in the subject of adolescent psychosis, particularly in relation to prediction and prevention. As the medical practice of adolescent psychosis and its treatment is characterised by a heterogeneity which is both symptomatic and evolutive, the somewhat poor prognosis of chronic development justifies the research performed: apparent indicators of schizophrenic disorders on the one hand and specific endophenotypes on the other are becoming increasingly important. The significant progresses made on the human genome show that the genetic predetermination in current psychiatric pathologies is complex and subject to moderating effects and there is therefore significant potential for nature-nurture interactions (between the environment and the genes). The road to be followed in researching the phenotypic expression of a psychosis gene is long and winding and is susceptible to many external influences at various levels with different effects. Neurobiological, neurophysiological, neuropsychological and neuroanatomical studies help to identify endophenotypes, which allow researchers to create identifying "markers" along this winding road. The endophenotypes could make it possible to redefine the nosological categories and enhance understanding of the physiopathology of schizophrenia. In a predictive approach, large-scale retrospective and prospective studies make it possible to identify risk factors, which are compatible with the neurodevelopmental hypothesis of schizophrenia. However, the predictive value of such markers or risk indicators is not yet sufficiently developed to offer a reliable early-detection method or possible schizophrenia prevention measures. Nonetheless, new developments show promise against the background of a possible future nosographic revolution, based on a paradigm shift. It is perhaps on the basis of homogeneous endophenotypes in particular that we will be able to understand what protects against, or indeed can trigger, psychosis irrespective of the clinical expression or attempts to isolate the common genetic and biological bases according to homogeneous clinical characteristics, which have to date, proved unsuccessful

Etiology of community-acquired pneumonia in hospitalized children based on WHO clinical guidelines

Rapport de synthèse: Enjeux de la recherche : La pneumonie communautaire chez l'enfant est un problème de santé publique considérable. Elle est responsable de 2 millions de mort par année, 70% survenant dans les pays en voie de développement. Sous nos latitudes son incidence est de 40/1000 enfants par année, ce qui représente une morbidité importante. Deux difficultés surviennent lorsqu'on cherche à diagnostiquer une pneumonie. La première est de distinguer une pneumonie bactérienne d'une virale, particulièrement chez les petits enfants où les infections virales des voies respiratoires inférieures sont fréquentes. L'OMS a définit la pneumonie selon des critères exclusivement cliniques et une étude effectuée à Lausanne en 2000 a montré que ces critères peuvent être utilisés dans nos contrées. La seconde difficulté est de définir l'agent causal de la pneumonie, ceci pour plusieurs raisons : L'aspiration endotrachéale, seul examen fiable, ne peut être obtenue de routine chez l'enfant vu son caractère invasif, la culture des secrétions nasopharyngées reflète la flore physiologique de la sphère ORL et une bactériémie n'est présente que dans moins de 10% des pneumonies. L'étiologie de la pneumonie reste souvent inconnue, et de ce fait plusieurs enfants reçoivent des antibiotiques pour une infection non bactérienne ce qui contribue au développement de résistances. L'objectif de cette étude était d'effectuer une recherche extensive de l'agent causal de la pneumonie et de déterminer quels facteurs pourraient aider le clinicien à différencier une pneumonie virale de bactérienne, en corrélant l'étiologie avec la sévérité clinique et les marqueurs de l'inflammation. Contexte de la recherche : II s'agissait d'une étude prospective, multicentrique, incluant les enfants âgés de 2 mois à 5 ans hospitalisés pour une pneumonie, selon les critères de l'OMS, dans le service de pédiatrie de Lausanne et Genève entre mars 2003 et Décembre 2005, avant l'implantation de la vaccination antipneumococcique de routine. Chaque enfant, en plus des examens usuels, bénéficiait d'une recherche étiologique extensive : Culture virale et bactérienne, PCR (Mycoplasma Pneumoniae, Chlamydia Pneumoniae, Virus Influenza A et B, RSV A et B, Rhinovirus, Parainfluenza 1-3, enterovirus, human metapneumovirus, coronavirus OC43, E229 ; et NL 63) et détection d'AG viraux dans les sécrétions nasopharyngées ; sérologies virales et bactériennes à l'entrée et 3 semaines après la sortie (AG Influenza A et B, Parainfluenza 1,2 et 3, RSV, Adenovirus, M.Pneumoniae et S.Pneumoniae). Conclusions : Un agent pathogène a été découvert chez 86% des 99 patients retenus confirmant le fait que plus la recherche étiologique est étendue plus le pourcentage d'agent causal trouvé est élevé. Une infection bactérienne a été découverte chez 53% des patients dont 45% avaient une infection à S. Pneumoniae confirmant l'importance d'une vaccination antipneumococcique de routine. La déshydratation et les marqueurs de l'inflammation tels que la C-Reactive Protein et la Procalcitonine étaient significativement plus élevés dans les pneumonies bactériennes. Aucune corrélation n'a été trouvée entre le degré de sévérité de la pneumonie et l'étiologie. L'étude a confirmé la haute prévalence d'infections virales (67%) et de co-infection (33%) dans la pneumonie de l'enfant sans que l'on connaisse le rôle réel du virus dans la pathogenèse de la pneumonie. Perspectives : d'autres études à la suite de celle-ci devraient être effectuées en incluant les patients ambulatoires afin de déterminer, avec un collectif plus large de patient, une éventuelle corrélation entre sévérité clinique et étiologie. Abstract : Community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) is a major cause of death in developing countries and of morbidity in developed countries. The objective of the study was to define the causative agents among children hospitalized for CAP defined by WHO guidelines and to correlate etiology with clinical severity and surrogate markers. Investigations included an extensive etiological workup. A potential causative agent was detected in 86% of the 99 enrolled patients, with evidence of bacterial (53%), viral (67%), and mixed (33%) infections. Streptococcus pneumoniae was accounted for in 46% of CAP. Dehydration was the only clinical sign associated with bacterial pneumonia. CRP and PCT were significantly higher in bacterial infections. Increasing the number of diagnostic tests identifies potential causes of CAP in up to 86% of children, indicating a high prevalence of viruses and frequent co-infections. The high proportion of pneumococcal infections re-emphasizes the importance of pneumococcal immunization.

Prediction of the economic cost of individual long-term care in the Spanish population

Pensions together with savings and investments during active life are key elements of retirement planning. Motivation for personal choices about the standard of living, bequest and the replacement ratio of pension with respect to last salary income must be considered. This research contributes to the financial planning by helping to quantify long-term care economic needs. We estimate life expectancy from retirement age onwards. The economic cost of care per unit of service is linked to the expected time of needed care and the intensity of required services. The expected individual cost of long-term care from an onset of dependence is estimated separately for men and women. Assumptions on the mortality of the dependent people compared to the general population are introduced. Parameters defining eligibility for various forms of coverage by the universal public social care of the welfare system are addressed. The impact of the intensity of social services on individual predictions is assessed, and a partial coverage by standard private insurance products is also explored. Data were collected by the Spanish Institute of Statistics in two surveys conducted on the general Spanish population in 1999 and in 2008. Official mortality records and life table trends were used to create realistic scenarios for longevity. We find empirical evidence that the public long-term care system in Spain effectively mitigates the risk of incurring huge lifetime costs. We also find that the most vulnerable categories are citizens with moderate disabilities that do not qualify to obtain public social care support. In the Spanish case, the trends between 1999 and 2008 need to be further explored.

In silico prediction of human carboxylesterase-1 (hCES1) metabolism combining docking analyses and MD simulations.

Metabolic problems lead to numerous failures during clinical trials, and much effort is now devoted in developing in silico models predicting metabolic stability and metabolites. Such models are well known for cytochromes P450 and some transferases, whereas little has been done to predict the hydrolytic activity of human hydrolases. The present study was undertaken to develop a computational approach able to predict the hydrolysis of novel esters by human carboxylesterase hCES1. The study involves both docking analyses of known substrates to develop predictive models, and molecular dynamics (MD) simulations to reveal the in situ behavior of substrates and products, with particular attention being paid to the influence of their ionization state. The results emphasize some crucial properties of the hCES1 catalytic cavity, confirming that as a trend with several exceptions, hCES1 prefers substrates with relatively smaller and somewhat polar alkyl/aryl groups and larger hydrophobic acyl moieties. The docking results underline the usefulness of the hydrophobic interaction score proposed here, which allows a robust prediction of hCES1 catalysis, while the MD simulations show the different behavior of substrates and products in the enzyme cavity, suggesting in particular that basic substrates interact with the enzyme in their unprotonated form.

Imaging of cavitary necrosis in complicated childhood pneumonia.

The aim of this study was to illustrate the chest radiographs (CR) and CT imaging features and sequential findings of cavitary necrosis in complicated childhood pneumonia. Among 30 children admitted in the Pediatric Intensive Care Unit for persistent or progressive pneumonia, respiratory distress or sepsis despite adequate antibiotic therapy, a study group of 9 children (5 girls and 4 boys; mean age 4 years) who had the radiographic features and CT criteria for cavitary necrosis complicated pneumonia was identified. The pathogens identified were Streptococcus pneumoniae( n=4), Aspergillus( n=2), Legionella( n=1), and Staphylococcus aureus( n=1). Sequential CR and CT scans were retrospectively reviewed. Follow-up CR and CT were evaluated for persistent abnormalities. Chest radiographs showed consolidations in 8 of the 9 patients. On CT examination, cavitary necrosis was localized to 1 lobe in 2 patients and 7 patients showed multilobar or bilateral areas of cavitary necrosis. In 3 patients of 9, the cavitary necrosis was initially shown on CT and visualization by CR was delayed by a time span varying from 5 to 9 days. In all patients with cavities, a mean number of five cavities were seen on antero-posterior CR, contrasting with the multiple cavities seen on CT. Parapneumonic effusions were shown by CR in 3 patients and in 5 patients by CT. Bronchopleural fistulae were demonstrated by CT alone ( n=3). No purulent pericarditis was demonstrated. The CT scan displayed persistent residual pneumatoceles of the left lower lobe in 2 patients. Computed tomography is able to define a more specific pattern of abnormalities than conventional CR in children with necrotizing pneumonia and allows an earlier diagnosis of this rapidly progressing condition. Lung necrosis and cavitation may also be associated with Aspergillus or Legionella pneumonia in the pediatric population.

Structural prediction of peptides bound to MHC class I.

An ab initio structure prediction approach adapted to the peptide-major histocompatibility complex (MHC) class I system is presented. Based on structure comparisons of a large set of peptide-MHC class I complexes, a molecular dynamics protocol is proposed using simulated annealing (SA) cycles to sample the conformational space of the peptide in its fixed MHC environment. A set of 14 peptide-human leukocyte antigen (HLA) A0201 and 27 peptide-non-HLA A0201 complexes for which X-ray structures are available is used to test the accuracy of the prediction method. For each complex, 1000 peptide conformers are obtained from the SA sampling. A graph theory clustering algorithm based on heavy atom root-mean-square deviation (RMSD) values is applied to the sampled conformers. The clusters are ranked using cluster size, mean effective or conformational free energies, with solvation free energies computed using Generalized Born MV 2 (GB-MV2) and Poisson-Boltzmann (PB) continuum models. The final conformation is chosen as the center of the best-ranked cluster. With conformational free energies, the overall prediction success is 83% using a 1.00 Angstroms crystal RMSD criterion for main-chain atoms, and 76% using a 1.50 Angstroms RMSD criterion for heavy atoms. The prediction success is even higher for the set of 14 peptide-HLA A0201 complexes: 100% of the peptides have main-chain RMSD values < or =1.00 Angstroms and 93% of the peptides have heavy atom RMSD values < or =1.50 Angstroms. This structure prediction method can be applied to complexes of natural or modified antigenic peptides in their MHC environment with the aim to perform rational structure-based optimizations of tumor vaccines.

Nasopharyngeal carriage of individual Streptococcus pneumoniae serotypes during pediatric radiologically confirmed community acquired pneumonia following PCV7 introduction in Switzerland.

BACKGROUND: Community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) is a serious cause of morbidity among children in developed countries. The real impact of 7-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV7) on pneumococcal pneumonia is difficult to assess accurately. METHODS: Children aged ≤16 years with clinical and radiological pneumonia were enrolled in a multicenter prospective study. Children aged ≤16 years admitted for a minor elective surgery was recruited as controls. Nasopharyngeal samples for PCR serotyping of S. pneumoniae were obtained in both groups. Informations on age, gender, PCV7 vaccination status, day care/school attendance, siblings, tobacco exposure were collected. RESULTS: In children with CAP (n=236), 54% of the nasopharyngeal swabs were PCR-positive for S. pneumoniae compared to 32% in controls (n=105) (p=0.003). Serotype 19A was the most common pneumococcal serotype carried in children with CAP (13%) and in controls (15%). Most common serotypes were non-vaccine types (39.4% for CAP and 47.1% for controls) and serotypes included only in PCV13 (32.3% for CAP and 23.5% for controls). There was no significant difference in vaccine serotype distribution between the two groups. In fully vaccinated children with CAP, the proportion of serotypes carried only in PCV13 was higher (51.4%) than in partially vaccinated or non vaccinated children (27.6% and 28.6% respectively, p=0.037). CONCLUSIONS: Two to 4 years following introduction of PCV7, predominant S. pneumoniae serotypes carried in children with CAP were non PCV7 serotypes, and the 6 new serotypes included in PCV13 accounted for 51.4% of carried serotypes in fully vaccinated children.

Ruling out coronary heart disease in primary care patients with chest pain : a clinical prediction score

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Chest pain raises concern for the possibility of coronary heart disease. Scoring methods have been developed to identify coronary heart disease in emergency settings, but not in primary care. METHODS: Data were collected from a multicenter Swiss clinical cohort study including 672 consecutive patients with chest pain, who had visited one of 59 family practitioners' offices. Using delayed diagnosis we derived a prediction rule to rule out coronary heart disease by means of a logistic regression model. Known cardiovascular risk factors, pain characteristics, and physical signs associated with coronary heart disease were explored to develop a clinical score. Patients diagnosed with angina or acute myocardial infarction within the year following their initial visit comprised the coronary heart disease group. RESULTS: The coronary heart disease score was derived from eight variables: age, gender, duration of chest pain from 1 to 60 minutes, substernal chest pain location, pain increases with exertion, absence of tenderness point at palpation, cardiovascular risks factors, and personal history of cardiovascular disease. Area under the receiver operating characteristics curve was of 0.95 with a 95% confidence interval of 0.92; 0.97. From this score, 413 patients were considered as low risk for values of percentile 5 of the coronary heart disease patients. Internal validity was confirmed by bootstrapping. External validation using data from a German cohort (Marburg, n = 774) revealed a receiver operating characteristics curve of 0.75 (95% confidence interval, 0.72; 0.81) with a sensitivity of 85.6% and a specificity of 47.2%. CONCLUSIONS: This score, based only on history and physical examination, is a complementary tool for ruling out coronary heart disease in primary care patients complaining of chest pain.

Current genetic data do not improve the prediction of type 2 diabetes mellitus: the CoLaus study.

CONTEXT: Several genetic risk scores to identify asymptomatic subjects at high risk of developing type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) have been proposed, but it is unclear whether they add extra information to risk scores based on clinical and biological data. OBJECTIVE: The objective of the study was to assess the extra clinical value of genetic risk scores in predicting the occurrence of T2DM. DESIGN: This was a prospective study, with a mean follow-up time of 5 yr. SETTING AND SUBJECTS: The study included 2824 nondiabetic participants (1548 women, 52 ± 10 yr). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Six genetic risk scores for T2DM were tested. Four were derived from the literature and two were created combining all (n = 24) or shared (n = 9) single-nucleotide polymorphisms of the previous scores. A previously validated clinic + biological risk score for T2DM was used as reference. RESULTS: Two hundred seven participants (7.3%) developed T2DM during follow-up. On bivariate analysis, no differences were found for all but one genetic score between nondiabetic and diabetic participants. After adjusting for the validated clinic + biological risk score, none of the genetic scores improved discrimination, as assessed by changes in the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (range -0.4 to -0.1%), sensitivity (-2.9 to -1.0%), specificity (0.0-0.1%), and positive (-6.6 to +0.7%) and negative (-0.2 to 0.0%) predictive values. Similarly, no improvement in T2DM risk prediction was found: net reclassification index ranging from -5.3 to -1.6% and nonsignificant (P ≥ 0.49) integrated discrimination improvement. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, adding genetic information to a previously validated clinic + biological score does not seem to improve the prediction of T2DM.

Prediction of recanalization in acute stroke patients receiving intravenous and endovascular revascularization therapy.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: The study aims to assess the recanalization rate in acute ischemic stroke patients who received no revascularization therapy, intravenous thrombolysis, and endovascular treatment, respectively, and to identify best clinical and imaging predictors of recanalization in each treatment group. METHODS: Clinical and imaging data were collected in 103 patients with acute ischemic stroke caused by anterior circulation arterial occlusion. We recorded demographics and vascular risk factors. We reviewed the noncontrast head computed tomographies to assess for hyperdense middle cerebral artery and its computed tomography density. We reviewed the computed tomography angiograms and the raw images to determine the site and degree of arterial occlusion, collateral score, clot burden score, and the density of the clot. Recanalization status was assessed on recanalization imaging using Thrombolysis in Myocardial Ischemia. Multivariate logistic regressions were utilized to determine the best predictors of outcome in each treatment group. RESULTS: Among the 103 study patients, 43 (42%) received intravenous thrombolysis, 34 (33%) received endovascular thrombolysis, and 26 (25%) did not receive any revascularization therapy. In the patients with intravenous thrombolysis or no revascularization therapy, recanalization of the vessel was more likely with intravenous thrombolysis (P = 0·046) and when M1/A1 was occluded (P = 0·001). In this subgroup of patients, clot burden score, cervical degree of stenosis (North American Symptomatic Carotid Endarterectomy Trial), and hyperlipidemia status added information to the aforementioned likelihood of recanalization at the patient level (P < 0·001). In patients with endovascular thrombolysis, recanalization of the vessel was more likely in the case of a higher computed tomography angiogram clot density (P = 0·012), and in this subgroup of patients gender added information to the likelihood of recanalization at the patient level (P = 0·044). CONCLUSION: The overall likelihood of recanalization was the highest in the endovascular group, and higher for intravenous thrombolysis compared with no revascularization therapy. However, our statistical models of recanalization for each individual patient indicate significant variability between treatment options, suggesting the need to include this prediction in the personalized treatment selection.