Econometric models of Finnish non-industrial private forest owners' timber supply and timber stock

This dissertation examines the short- and long-run impacts of timber prices and other factors affecting NIPF owners' timber harvesting and timber stocking decisions. The utility-based Faustmann model provides testable hypotheses of the exogenous variables retained in the timber supply analysis. The timber stock function, derived from a two-period biomass harvesting model, is estimated using a two-step GMM estimator based on balanced panel data from 1983 to 1991. Timber supply functions are estimated using a Tobit model adjusted for heteroscedasticity and nonnormality of errors based on panel data from 1994 to 1998. Results show that if specification analysis of the Tobit model is ignored, inconsistency and biasedness can have a marked effect on parameter estimates. The empirical results show that owner's age is the single most important factor determining timber stock; timber price is the single most important factor in harvesting decision. The results of the timber supply estimations can be interpreted using utility-based Faustmann model of a forest owner who values a growing timber in situ.

Merestä Metsäksi - yhteistoimintaverkostohankkeen sosiaaliset ja taloudelliset vaikutukset

The object of this study was to find out which factors made landowners interested in From Sea to Forest co-operation network. Co-operation networks protect biodiversity across boundaries and among groups of landowners with different kind of protection contracts. The social effects of From Sea to Forest - project are studied by analyzing the experience of co-operation and trust. Furthermore the possibility to influence decision making when choosing the pilot areas and doing the contracts was surveyed. Economical effects are estimated for those landowners, who signed a protection contract for ten years. The study is part of The Finnish Forest Research Institute s Ecological considerations in landscape-level collaborative planning of private forestry project. The material of the study comprises 13 interviews done in January 2006; seven interviewed were landowners and six forest professionals. The interviews were transcripted and analyzed with Atlas.ti programme. The economical effects were estimated with MOTTI forest simulation programme. From Sea to Forest project interested the landowners for similar reasons: the voluntariness of participation, compensation, fixed-term contracts and the possibility to protect forests so that the proprietary right remains. It was possible to form four different groups of interviewed landowners according to trust: networkers , opportunists , carefuls and selfemployed . Only in the group of opportunists the project created so much trust that a significant increase of interest to participate in the project was noticed. In all the other groups the project didn t create remarkable trust, so trust didn t have an effect on landowners decisions to participate. Other factors, like compensation and voluntariness were decisive for their interest to participate. From Sea to Forest project wasn t a network based on landowners co-operation, the communication was directly with the project worker. The effects on landowners income by signing a ten year ´Natural value trading´ -contract was analyzed by comparing the protection income with predicted forestry income in case that the protection contract wouldn t have been agreed on. For two landowners there was no suggested forestry work within ten years, so their protection income might be an additional income, if they decided to log their forests later. For three landowners delayed thinning of the sapling stand would cause income losses in the future, if they decided to move to active forestry after ten years of protection. For eight landowners the effect of protection is positive to income if they moved to active forestry after the ten years protection period. This occurred, because the tree stand is now mature for final felling on behalf of its age, but ten more years of growth increase the net present value. Longer term protection might diminish the net present value. The protection was profitable because hectare specific forestry income grew compared to forestry cutting plan income.

Egg production in furnished cages

In the European Union, conventional cages for laying hens will be faded out at the beginning of 2012. The rationale behind this is a public concern over animal welfare in egg production. As alternatives to conventional cages, the European Union Council Directive 1999/74/EC allows non-cage systems and enriched (furnished) cages. Layer performance, behavior, and welfare in differently sized furnished cages have been investigated quite widely during recent decades, but nutrition of hens in this production system has received less attention. This thesis aims to compare production and feed intake of laying hens in furnished and conventional cages and to study the effects of different dietary treatments in these production systems, thus contributing to the general knowledge of furnished cages as an egg production system. A furnished cage model for 8 hens was compared with a 3-hen conventional cage. Three consecutive experiments each studied one aspect of layer diet: The first experiment investigated the effects of dietary protein/energy ratio, the second dietary energy levels, and the third the effects of extra limestone supplementation. In addition, a fourth experiment evaluated the effects of perches on feed consumption and behavior of hens in furnished cages. The dietary treatments in experiments 1 3 generally had similar effects in the two cage types. Thus, there was no evidence supporting a change in nutrient requirements for laying hens when conventional cages are replaced with small-group furnished cages. Moreover, the results from nutritional experiments conducted in conventional cages can be applied to small-group furnished cage systems. These results support the view that production performance comparable with conventional cages can be achieved in furnished cages. All of the advantages of cages for bird welfare are sustained in the small-group furnished cages used here. In addition, frequent use of perches and nests implies a wider behavioral repertoire in furnished cages than in conventional cages. The increase observed in bone ash content may improve bird welfare in furnished cages. The presence of perches diminished feed consumption during the prelaying period and enhanced the feed conversion ratio during the early laying period in furnished cages. However, as the presence or absence of perches in furnished cages had no significant effect on feed consumption after the prelaying period, the lower feed consumption observed in furnished cages than in conventional cages could be attributed to other factors, such as the presence of wood shavings or a nest box. The wider feed trough space per hen in conventional than in furnished cages may partly explain the higher feed consumption observed in conventional cages.

Population dynamics of Thaumastocoris peregrinus in Eucalyptus plantations of South Africa

Thaumastocoris peregrinus is a sap-sucking insect that infests non-native Eucalyptus plantations in Africa, New Zealand, South America and parts of Southern Europe, in addition to street trees in parts of its native range of Australia. In South Africa, pronounced fluctuations in the population densities have been observed. To characterise spatiotemporal variability in T. peregrinus abundance and the factors that might influence it, we monitored adult population densities at six sites in the main eucalypt growing regions of South Africa. At each site, twenty yellow sticky traps were monitored weekly for 30 months, together with climatic data. We also characterised the influence of temperature on growth and survival experimentally and used this to model how temperature may influence population dynamics. T. peregrinus was present throughout the year at all sites, with annual site-specific peaks in abundance. Peaks occurred during autumn (February-April) for the Pretoria site, summer (November-January) for the Zululand site and spring (August-October) for the Tzaneen, Sabie and Piet Retief monitoring sites. Temperature (both experimental and field-collected), humidity and rainfall were mostly weakly, or not at all, associated with population fluctuations. It is clear that a complex interaction of these and other factors (e.g. host quality) influence population fluctuations in an annual, site specific cycle. The results obtained not only provide insights into the biology of T. peregrinus, but will also be important for future planning of monitoring and control programs using semiochemicals, chemical insecticides or biological control agents. © 2014 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.

Persistent organic pollutants in matched breast milk and infant faeces samples

Assessing blood concentration of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) in infants is difficult due to the ethical and practical difficulties in obtaining sufficient quantities of blood. To determine whether measuring POPs in faeces might reflect blood concentration during infancy, we measured the concentrations of a range of POPs (i.e. polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) and organochlorine pesticides (OCPs)) in a pilot study using matched breast milk and infant faecal samples obtained from ten mother-child pairs. All infants were breast fed, with 8 of them also receiving solid food at the time of faecal sampling. In this small dataset faecal concentrations (range 0.01-41ngg-1 lipid) are strongly associated with milk concentrations (range 0.02-230ngg-1 lipid). Associations with other factors generally could not be detected in this dataset, with the exception of a small effect of age or growth. Different sources (external or internal) of exposure appeared to directly influence faecal concentrations of different chemicals based on different inter-individual variability in the faeces-to-milk concentration ratio Rfm. Overall, the matrix of faeces as an external measure of internal exposure in infants looks promising for some chemicals and is worth assessing further in larger datasets.

Relative Stability of closo-closo, closo-nido, and nido-nido Macropolyhedral Boranes: The Role of Orbital Compatibility

The concept of orbital compatibility is used to explain the relative energies of different macropolyhedral structural patterns such as closo-closo, closo-nido, and nido-nido. A large polyhedral borane condenses preferentially with a smaller polyhedron owing to orbital compatibility. Calculations carried out at the B3LYP/6-31G* level show that the macropolyhedron closo(12)-closo(6) is the most preferred structural pattern among the face-sharing closo-closo systems. The relative stabilities of four-shared-atom closo-closo, three-shared-atom closo-closo, three-shared-atom closo-nido, edge-sharing closo-nido, and edge-sharing nido-nido structures are in accordance with the difference in the number of vertices of the individual polyhedra of the macropolyhedra. When the difference in the number of vertices of the individual polyhedra is large, the stability of the macropolyhedra is also large. Calculations further show that the orbital compatibility plays an important role in deciding the stability of the macropolyhedral boranes with more than two polyhedral units. The dependence of the orbital compatibility on the relative stability of the macropolyhedron varies with other factors such as inherent stability of the individual polyhedron and steric factors.

Spatial variation of climate and the impact of disturbances on local climate and forest recovery in northern Finland

The structure and function of northern ecosystems are strongly influenced by climate change and variability and by human-induced disturbances. The projected global change is likely to have a pronounced effect on the distribution and productivity of different species, generating large changes in the equilibrium at the tree-line. In turn, movement of the tree-line and the redistribution of species produce feedback to both the local and the regional climate. This research was initiated with the objective of examining the influence of natural conditions on the small-scale spatial variation of climate in Finnish Lapland, and to study the interaction and feedback mechanisms in the climate-disturbances-vegetation system near the climatological border of boreal forest. The high (1 km) resolution spatial variation of climate parameters over northern Finland was determined by applying the Kriging interpolation method that takes into account the effect of external forcing variables, i.e., geographical coordinates, elevation, sea and lake coverage. Of all the natural factors shaping the climate, the geographical position, local topography and altitude proved to be the determining ones. Spatial analyses of temperature- and precipitation-derived parameters based on a 30-year dataset (1971-2000) provide a detailed description of the local climate. Maps of the mean, maximum and minimum temperatures, the frost-free period and the growing season indicate that the most favourable thermal conditions exist in the south-western part of Lapland, around large water bodies and in the Kemijoki basin, while the coldest regions are in highland and fell Lapland. The distribution of precipitation is predominantly longitudinally dependent but with the definite influence of local features. The impact of human-induced disturbances, i.e., forest fires, on local climate and its implication for forest recovery near the northern timberline was evaluated in the Tuntsa area of eastern Lapland, damaged by a widespread forest fire in 1960 and suffering repeatedly-failed vegetation recovery since that. Direct measurements of the local climate and simulated heat and water fluxes indicated the development of a more severe climate and physical conditions on the fire-disturbed site. Removal of the original, predominantly Norway spruce and downy birch vegetation and its substitution by tundra vegetation has generated increased wind velocity and reduced snow accumulation, associated with a large variation in soil temperature and moisture and deep soil frost. The changed structural parameters of the canopy have determined changes in energy fluxes by reducing the latter over the tundra vegetation. The altered surface and soil conditions, as well as the evolved severe local climate, have negatively affected seedling growth and survival, leading to more unfavourable conditions for the reproduction of boreal vegetation and thereby causing deviations in the regional position of the timberline. However it should be noted that other factors, such as an inadequate seed source or seedbed, the poor quality of the soil and the intensive logging of damaged trees could also exacerbate the poor tree regeneration. In spite of the failed forest recovery at Tunsta, the position and composition of the timberline and tree-line in Finnish Lapland may also benefit from present and future changes in climate. The already-observed and the projected increase in temperature, the prolonged growing season, as well as changes in the precipitation regime foster tree growth and new regeneration, resulting in an advance of the timberline and tree-line northward and upward. This shift in the distribution of vegetation might be decelerated or even halted by local topoclimatic conditions and by the expected increase in the frequency of disturbances.

Population dynamics of Thaumastocoris peregrinus in Eucalyptus plantations of South Africa

Thaumastocoris peregrinus is a sap-sucking insect that infests non-native Eucalyptus plantations in Africa, New Zealand, South America and parts of Southern Europe, in addition to street trees in parts of its native range of Australia. In South Africa, pronounced fluctuations in the population densities have been observed. To characterise spatiotemporal variability in T. peregrinus abundance and the factors that might influence it, we monitored adult population densities at six sites in the main eucalypt growing regions of South Africa. At each site, twenty yellow sticky traps were monitored weekly for 30 months, together with climatic data. We also characterised the influence of temperature on growth and survival experimentally and used this to model how temperature may influence population dynamics. T. peregrinus was present throughout the year at all sites, with annual site-specific peaks in abundance. Peaks occurred during autumn (February–April) for the Pretoria site, summer (November–January) for the Zululand site and spring (August–October) for the Tzaneen, Sabie and Piet Retief monitoring sites. Temperature (both experimental and field-collected), humidity and rainfall were mostly weakly, or not at all, associated with population fluctuations. It is clear that a complex interaction of these and other factors (e.g. host quality) influence population fluctuations in an annual, site specific cycle. The results obtained not only provide insights into the biology of T. peregrinus, but will also be important for future planning of monitoring and control programs using semiochemicals, chemical insecticides or biological control agents.

The long-run impact of Information and Communication Technology on economic output: The case of Australia

This paper investigates the cointegration and causal relationships between Information and Communication Technology (ICT) and economic output in Australia using data for about five decades. The framework used in this paper is the single-sector aggregate production function, which is the first comprehensive approach of this kind to include ICT and non-ICT capital and other factors to examine long-run Granger causality. The empirical evidence points to a cointegration relationship between ICT capital and output, and implies that ICT capital Granger causes economic output and multifactor productivity, as does non-ICT capital.

What influences a patients decision to use custom-made orthopaedic shoes?

Background Despite potential benefits, some patients decide not to use their custom-made orthopaedic shoes (OS). Factors are known in the domains ‘usability’, ‘communication and service’, and ‘opinion of others’ that influence a patient’s decision to use OS. However, the interplay between these factors has never been investigated. The aim of this study was to explore the interplay between factors concerning OS, and the influences thereof on a patient’s decision to use OS. Methods A mixed-methods design was used, combining qualitative and quantitative data by means of sequential data analysis and triangulation. Priority was given to the qualitative part. Qualitative data was gathered with a semi-structured interview covering the three domains. Data was analysed using the framework approach. Quantitative data concerned the interplay between factors and determining a rank-order for the importance of factors of ‘usability’. Results A patient’s decision to use OS was influenced by various factors indicated as being important and by acceptance of their OS. Factors of ‘usability’ were more important than factors of ‘communication’; the ‘opinion of others’ was of limited importance. An improvement of walking was indicated as the most important factor of ‘usability’. The importance of other factors (cosmetic appearance and ease of use) was determined by reaching a compromise between these factors and an improvement of walking. Conclusions A patient’s decision to use OS is influenced by various factors indicated as being important and by acceptance of their OS. An improvement of walking is the most important factor of ‘usability’, the importance of other factors (cosmetic appearance and ease of use) is determined by reaching compromises between these factors and an improvement of walking. Communication is essential to gain insight in a patient’s acceptance and in the compromises they are willing to reach. This makes communication the key for clinicians to influence a patient’s decision to use OS.

The Population Consequences of Sex and Conflict

Natural selection generally operates at the level of the individual, or more specifically at the level of the gene. As a result, individual selection does not always favour traits which benefit the population or species as a whole. The spread of an individual gene may even act to the detriment of the organism in which it finds. Thus selection at the level of the individual can affect processes at the level of the organism, group or even at the level of the species. As most behaviours ultimately affect births, deaths and the distribution of individuals, it seems inevitable that behavioural decisions will have an impact on population dynamics and population densities. Behavioural decisions can often involve costs through allocation of energy into behavioural strategies, such as the investment into armaments involved in fighting over resources or increased mortality due to injury or increased predation risk. Similarly, behaviour may act o to benefit the population, in terms of higher survival and increased fecundity. Examples include increased investment through parental care, choosing a mate based on the nuptial gifts they may supply and choosing territories in the face of competition. Investigating the impact of behaviour on population ecology may seem like a trivial task, but it is likely to have important consequences at different levels. For example, antagonistic behaviour may occasionally become so extreme that it increases the risk of extinction, and such extinction risk may have important implications for conservation. As a corollary, any such behaviour may also act as a macroevolutionary force, weeding out populations with traits which, whilst beneficial to the individuals in the short term, ultimately result in population extinction. In this thesis, I examine how behaviours, specifically conflict and competition over a resource and aspects of behaviour involved in sexual selection, can affect population densities, and what the implications are for the evolution and ecology of the populations in question. It is found that both behaviours related to individual conflict and mating strategies can have an effect at the level of the population, but that various factors, such as a feedback between selection and population densities or macroevolution caused by species extinctions, may act to limit the intensity of conflicts that we observe in nature.

Role of Temperature in the Biological Activity of a Boreal Forest

In northern latitudes, temperature is the key factor driving the temporal scales of biological activity, namely the length of the growing season and the seasonal efficiency of photosynthesis. The formation of atmospheric concentrations of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) are linked to the intensity of biological activity. However, interdisciplinary knowledge of the role of temperature in the biological processes related to the annual cycle and photosynthesis and atmospheric chemistry is not fully understood. The aim of this study was to improve understanding of the role of temperature in these three interlinked areas: 1) onset of growing season, 2) photosynthetic efficiency and 3) BVOC air concentrations in a boreal forest. The results present a cross-section of the role of temperature on different spatial (southern northern boreal), structural (tree forest stand - forest) and temporal (day-season- year) scales. The fundamental status of the Thermal Time model in predicting the onset of spring recovery was confirmed. However, it was recommended that sequential models would be more appropriate tools when the onset of the growing season is estimated under a warmer climate. A similar type of relationship between photosynthetic efficiency and temperature history was found in both southern and northern boreal forest stands. This result draws attention to the critical question of the seasonal efficiency of coniferous species to emit organic compounds under a warmer climate. New knowledge about the temperature dependence of the concentrations of biogenic volatile organic compounds in a boreal forest stand was obtained. The seasonal progress and the inter-correlation of BVOC concentrations in ambient air indicated a link to biological activity. Temperature was found to be the main driving factor for the concentrations. However, in addition to temperature, other factors may play a significant role here, especially when the peak concentrations are studied. There is strong evidence that the spring recovery and phenological events of many plant species have already advanced in Europe. This study does not fully support this observation. In a boreal forest, changes in the annual cycle, especially the temperature requirement in winter, would have an impact on the atmospheric BVOC composition. According to this study, more joint phenological and BVOC field observations and laboratory experiments are still needed to improve these scenarios.

The range expansion of the European map butterfly in Finland

Climate change will influence the living conditions of all life on Earth. For some species the change in the environmental conditions that has occurred so far has already increased the risk of extinction, and the extinction risk is predicted to increase for large numbers of species in the future. Some species may have time to adapt to the changing environmental conditions, but the rate and magnitude of the change are too great to allow many species to survive via evolutionary changes. Species responses to climate change have been documented for some decades. Some groups of species, like many insects, respond readily to changes in temperature conditions and have shifted their distributions northwards to new climatically suitable regions. Such range shifts have been well documented especially in temperate zones. In this context, butterflies have been studied more than any other group of species, partly for the reason that their past geographical ranges are well documented, which facilitates species-climate modelling and other analyses. The aim of the modelling studies is to examine to what extent shifts in species distributions can be explained by climatic and other factors. Models can also be used to predict the future distributions of species. In this thesis, I have studied the response to climate change of one species of butterfly within one geographically restricted area. The study species, the European map butterfly (Araschnia levana), has expanded rapidly northwards in Finland during the last two decades. I used statistical and dynamic modelling approaches in combination with field studies to analyse the effects of climate warming and landscape structure on the expansion. I studied possible role of molecular variation in phosphoglucose isomerase (PGI), a glycolytic enzyme affecting flight metabolism and thereby flight performance, in the observed expansion of the map butterfly at two separate expansion fronts in Finland. The expansion rate of the map butterfly was shown to be correlated with the frequency of warmer than average summers during the study period. The result is in line with the greater probability of occurrence of the second generation during warm summers and previous results on this species showing greater mobility of the second than first generation individuals. The results of a field study in this thesis indicated low mobility of the first generation butterflies. Climatic variables alone were not sufficient to explain the observed expansion in Finland. There are also problems in transferring the climate model to new regions from the ones from which data were available to construct the model. The climate model predicted a wider distribution in the south-western part of Finland than what has been observed. Dynamic modelling of the expansion in response to landscape structure suggested that habitat and landscape structure influence the rate of expansion. In southern Finland the landscape structure may have slowed down the expansion rate. The results on PGI suggested that allelic variation in this enzyme may influence flight performance and thereby the rate of expansion. Genetic differences of the populations at the two expansion fronts may explain at least partly the observed differences in the rate of expansion. Individuals with the genotype associated with high flight metabolic rate were most frequent in eastern Finland, where the rate of range expansion has been highest.

Genetics of ankylosing spondylitis - Insights into pathogenesis

Ankylosing spondylitis (AS), an immune-mediated arthritis, is the prototypic member of a group of conditions known as spondyloarthropathies that also includes reactive arthritis, psoriatic arthritis and enteropathic arthritis. Patients with these conditions share a clinical predisposition for spinal and pelvic joint dysfunction, as well as genetic associations, notably with HLA-B*27. Spondyloarthropathies are characterized by histopathological inflammation in entheses (regions of high mechanical stress where tendons and ligaments insert into bone) and in the subchondral bone marrow, and by abnormal osteoproliferation at involved sites. The association of AS with HLA-B*27, first described >40 years ago, led to hope that the cause of the disease would be rapidly established. However, even though many theories have been advanced to explain how HLA-B*27 is involved in AS, no consensus about the answers to this question has been reached, and no successful treatments have yet been developed that target HLA-B27 or its functional pathways. Over the past decade, rapid progress has been made in discovering further genetic associations with AS that have shed new light on the aetiopathogenesis of the disease. Some of these discoveries have driven translational ideas, such as the repurposing of therapeutics targeting the cytokines IL-12 and IL-23 and other factors downstream of this pathway. AS provides an excellent example of how hypothesis-free research can lead to major advances in understanding pathogenesis and to the development of innovative therapeutic strategies.

Regional variation in social isolation amongst older Australians

Regional studies globally have a strong focus on understanding the causes of variation in the economic performance and wellbeing of regions and this emphasis acknowledges that the strength of the local or regional economy plays a determinant role in shaping quality of life. Regional research has been less active in considering spatial variation in other factors that are critical to individual and societal wellbeing. For example, the regional studies community has been absent from the debate on the social determinants of health and how these influences vary spatially. This paper considers the results of a cross sectional survey of Australians aged 65 and over that focussed on social connections and wellbeing. It examines regional variations in the incidence of social isolation within the older population. It finds that while the incidence of self-reported social isolation amongst older persons is broadly consistent with earlier studies, it demonstrates a spatial patterning that is unexpected. The paper considers community-building activities in addressing the impacts of social isolation, including the role of urban design, and suggests that there is a need to supplement the national overview presented there through more detailed studies focussed on individual localities.