Understanding Uncertainties in Non-Linear Population Trajectories: A Bayesian Semi-Parametric Hierarchical Approach to Large-Scale Surveys of Coral Cover

Recently, attempts to improve decision making in species management have focussed on uncertainties associated with modelling temporal fluctuations in populations. Reducing model uncertainty is challenging; while larger samples improve estimation of species trajectories and reduce statistical errors, they typically amplify variability in observed trajectories. In particular, traditional modelling approaches aimed at estimating population trajectories usually do not account well for nonlinearities and uncertainties associated with multi-scale observations characteristic of large spatio-temporal surveys. We present a Bayesian semi-parametric hierarchical model for simultaneously quantifying uncertainties associated with model structure and parameters, and scale-specific variability over time. We estimate uncertainty across a four-tiered spatial hierarchy of coral cover from the Great Barrier Reef. Coral variability is well described; however, our results show that, in the absence of additional model specifications, conclusions regarding coral trajectories become highly uncertain when considering multiple reefs, suggesting that management should focus more at the scale of individual reefs. The approach presented facilitates the description and estimation of population trajectories and associated uncertainties when variability cannot be attributed to specific causes and origins. We argue that our model can unlock value contained in large-scale datasets, provide guidance for understanding sources of uncertainty, and support better informed decision making

Superpixel-based appearance change prediction for long-term navigation across seasons

Changing environments pose a serious problem to current robotic systems aiming at long term operation under varying seasons or local weather conditions. This paper is built on our previous work where we propose to learn to predict the changes in an environment. Our key insight is that the occurring scene changes are in part systematic, repeatable and therefore predictable. The goal of our work is to support existing approaches to place recognition by learning how the visual appearance of an environment changes over time and by using this learned knowledge to predict its appearance under different environmental conditions. We describe the general idea of appearance change prediction (ACP) and investigate properties of our novel implementation based on vocabularies of superpixels (SP-ACP). Our previous work showed that the proposed approach significantly improves the performance of SeqSLAM and BRIEF-Gist for place recognition on a subset of the Nordland dataset under extremely different environmental conditions in summer and winter. This paper deepens the understanding of the proposed SP-ACP system and evaluates the influence of its parameters. We present the results of a large-scale experiment on the complete 10 h Nordland dataset and appearance change predictions between different combinations of seasons.

Building cross-scale models of epigenetic mechanisms

Epigenetic changes correspond to heritable modifications of the chromosome structure, which do not involve alteration of the DNA sequence but do affect gene expression. These mechanisms play an important role in normal cell differentiation, but aberration is associated also with several diseases, including cancer and neural disorders. In consequence, despite intensive studies in recent years, the contribution of modifications remains largely unquantified due to overall system complexity and insufficient data. Computational models can provide powerful auxiliary tools to experimentation, not least as scales from the sub-cellular through cell populations (or to networks of genes) can be spanned. In this paper, the challenges to development, of realistic cross-scale models, are discussed and illustrated with respect to current work.

Spallation analysis with a closed trans-scale formulation damage evolution

A closed, trans-scale formulation of damage evolution based on the statistical microdamage mechanics is summarized in this paper. The dynamic function of damage bridges the mesoscopic and macroscopic evolution of damage. The spallation in an aluminium plate is studied with this formulation. It is found that the damage evolution is governed by several dimensionless parameters, i.e., imposed Deborah numbers De* and De, Mach number M and damage number S. In particular, the most critical mode of the macroscopic damage evolution, i.e., the damage localization, is deter-mined by Deborah number De+. Deborah number De* reflects the coupling and competition between the macroscopic loading and the microdamage growth. Therefore, our results reveal the multi-scale nature of spallation. In fact, the damage localization results from the nonlinearity of the microdamage growth. In addition, the dependence of the damage rate on imposed Deborah numbers De* and De, Mach number M and damage number S is discussed.

Trans-Scale Mechanics: Looking For The Missing Links Between Continuum And Micro/Nanoscopic Reality

Problems involving coupled multiple space and time scales offer a real challenge for conventional frameworks of either particle or continuum mechanics. In this paper, four cases studies (shear band formation in bulk metallic glasses, spallation resulting from stress wave, interaction between a probe tip and sample, the simulation of nanoindentation with molecular statistical thermodynamics) are provided to illustrate the three levels of trans-scale problems (problems due to various physical mechanisms at macro-level, problems due to micro-structural evolution at macro/micro-level, problems due to the coupling of atoms/molecules and a finite size body at micro/nano-level) and their formulations. Accordingly, non-equilibrium statistical mechanics, coupled trans-scale equations and simultaneous solutions, and trans-scale algorithms based on atomic/molecular interaction are suggested as the three possible modes of trans-scale mechanics.

The conceptual development of a simple scale-adaptive reactive pollutant dispersion model

The paper develops the basis for a self-consistent, operationally useful, reactive pollutant dispersion model, for application in urban environments. The model addresses the multi-scale nature of the physical and chemical processes and the interaction between the different scales. The methodology builds on existing techniques of source apportionment in pollutant dispersion and on reduction techniques of detailed chemical mechanisms. © 2005 Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Fourier analysis and gabor filtering for texture analysis and local reconstruction of general shapes

Since the pioneering work of Gibson in 1950, Shape- From-Texture has been considered by researchers as a hard problem, mainly due to restrictive assumptions which often limit its applicability. We assume a very general stochastic homogeneity and perspective camera model, for both deterministic and stochastic textures. A multi-scale distortion is efficiently estimated with a previously presented method based on Fourier analysis and Gabor filters. The novel 3D reconstruction method that we propose applies to general shapes, and includes non-developable and extensive surfaces. Our algorithm is accurate, robust and compares favorably to the present state of the art of Shape-From- Texture. Results show its application to non-invasively study shape changes with laid-on textures, while rendering and retexturing of cloth is suggested for future work. © 2009 IEEE.

MosaicShape: Stochastic Region Grouping with Shape Prior

A novel method that combines shape-based object recognition and image segmentation is proposed for shape retrieval from images. Given a shape prior represented in a multi-scale curvature form, the proposed method identifies the target objects in images by grouping oversegmented image regions. The problem is formulated in a unified probabilistic framework and solved by a stochastic Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) mechanism. By this means, object segmentation and recognition are accomplished simultaneously. Within each sampling move during the simulation process,probabilistic region grouping operations are influenced by both the image information and the shape similarity constraint. The latter constraint is measured by a partial shape matching process. A generalized parallel algorithm by Barbu and Zhu,combined with a large sampling jump and other implementation improvements, greatly speeds up the overall stochastic process. The proposed method supports the segmentation and recognition of multiple occluded objects in images. Experimental results are provided for both synthetic and real images.

CONFIGR: A Vision-Based Model for Long-Range Figure Completion

CONFIGR (CONtour FIgure GRound) is a computational model based on principles of biological vision that completes sparse and noisy image figures. Within an integrated vision/recognition system, CONFIGR posits an initial recognition stage which identifies figure pixels from spatially local input information. The resulting, and typically incomplete, figure is fed back to the “early vision” stage for long-range completion via filling-in. The reconstructed image is then re-presented to the recognition system for global functions such as object recognition. In the CONFIGR algorithm, the smallest independent image unit is the visible pixel, whose size defines a computational spatial scale. Once pixel size is fixed, the entire algorithm is fully determined, with no additional parameter choices. Multi-scale simulations illustrate the vision/recognition system. Open-source CONFIGR code is available online, but all examples can be derived analytically, and the design principles applied at each step are transparent. The model balances filling-in as figure against complementary filling-in as ground, which blocks spurious figure completions. Lobe computations occur on a subpixel spatial scale. Originally designed to fill-in missing contours in an incomplete image such as a dashed line, the same CONFIGR system connects and segments sparse dots, and unifies occluded objects from pieces locally identified as figure in the initial recognition stage. The model self-scales its completion distances, filling-in across gaps of any length, where unimpeded, while limiting connections among dense image-figure pixel groups that already have intrinsic form. Long-range image completion promises to play an important role in adaptive processors that reconstruct images from highly compressed video and still camera images.

Lack of cross-scale linkages reduces robustness of community-based fisheries management.

Community-based management and the establishment of marine reserves have been advocated worldwide as means to overcome overexploitation of fisheries. Yet, researchers and managers are divided regarding the effectiveness of these measures. The "tragedy of the commons" model is often accepted as a universal paradigm, which assumes that unless managed by the State or privatized, common-pool resources are inevitably overexploited due to conflicts between the self-interest of individuals and the goals of a group as a whole. Under this paradigm, the emergence and maintenance of effective community-based efforts that include cooperative risky decisions as the establishment of marine reserves could not occur. In this paper, we question these assumptions and show that outcomes of commons dilemmas can be complex and scale-dependent. We studied the evolution and effectiveness of a community-based management effort to establish, monitor, and enforce a marine reserve network in the Gulf of California, Mexico. Our findings build on social and ecological research before (1997-2001), during (2002) and after (2003-2004) the establishment of marine reserves, which included participant observation in >100 fishing trips and meetings, interviews, as well as fishery dependent and independent monitoring. We found that locally crafted and enforced harvesting rules led to a rapid increase in resource abundance. Nevertheless, news about this increase spread quickly at a regional scale, resulting in poaching from outsiders and a subsequent rapid cascading effect on fishing resources and locally-designed rule compliance. We show that cooperation for management of common-pool fisheries, in which marine reserves form a core component of the system, can emerge, evolve rapidly, and be effective at a local scale even in recently organized fisheries. Stakeholder participation in monitoring, where there is a rapid feedback of the systems response, can play a key role in reinforcing cooperation. However, without cross-scale linkages with higher levels of governance, increase of local fishery stocks may attract outsiders who, if not restricted, will overharvest and threaten local governance. Fishers and fishing communities require incentives to maintain their management efforts. Rewarding local effective management with formal cross-scale governance recognition and support can generate these incentives.

Modelling the nano-scale phenomena in condensed matter physics via computer-based numerical simulations

A review of the atomistic modelling of the behaviour of nano-scale structures and processes via molecular dynamics (MD) simulation method of a canonical ensemble is presented. Three areas of application in condensed matter physics are considered. We focus on the adhesive and indentation properties of the solid surfaces in nano-contacts, the nucleation and growth of nano-phase metallic and semi-conducting atomic and molecular films on supporting substrates, and the nano- and multi-scale crack propagation properties of metallic lattices. A set of simulations selected from these fields are discussed, together with a brief introduction to the methodology of the MD simulation. The pertinent inter-atomic potentials that model the energetics of the metallic and semi-conducting systems are also given.

Scale-dependent foraging ecology of a marine top predator modelled using passive acoustic data

1.Understanding which environmental factors drive foraging preferences is critical for the development of effective management measures, but resource use patterns may emerge from processes that occur at different spatial and temporal scales. Direct observations of foraging are also especially challenging in marine predators, but passive acoustic techniques provide opportunities to study the behaviour of echolocating species over a range of scales. 2.We used an extensive passive acoustic data set to investigate the distribution and temporal dynamics of foraging in bottlenose dolphins using the Moray Firth (Scotland, UK). Echolocation buzzes were identified with a mixture model of detected echolocation inter-click intervals and used as a proxy of foraging activity. A robust modelling approach accounting for autocorrelation in the data was then used to evaluate which environmental factors were associated with the observed dynamics at two different spatial and temporal scales. 3.At a broad scale, foraging varied seasonally and was also affected by seabed slope and shelf-sea fronts. At a finer scale, we identified variation in seasonal use and local interactions with tidal processes. Foraging was best predicted at a daily scale, accounting for site specificity in the shape of the estimated relationships. 4.This study demonstrates how passive acoustic data can be used to understand foraging ecology in echolocating species and provides a robust analytical procedure for describing spatio-temporal patterns. Associations between foraging and environmental characteristics varied according to spatial and temporal scale, highlighting the need for a multi-scale approach. Our results indicate that dolphins respond to coarser scale temporal dynamics, but have a detailed understanding of finer-scale spatial distribution of resources.

Improved line/edge detection and visual reconstruction

Lines and edges provide important information for object categorization and recognition. In addition, one brightness model is based on a symbolic interpretation of the cortical multi-scale line/edge representation. In this paper we present an improved scheme for line/edge extraction from simple and complex cells and we illustrate the multi-scale representation. This representation can be used for visual reconstruction, but also for nonphotorealistic rendering. Together with keypoints and a new model of disparity estimation, a 3D wireframe representation of e.g. faces can be obtained in the future.

Correlates of facial expressions in the primary visual cortex

Face detection and recognition should be complemented by recognition of facial expression, for example for social robots which must react to human emotions. Our framework is based on two multi-scale representations in cortical area V1: keypoints at eyes, nose and mouth are grouped for face detection [1]; lines and edges provide information for face recognition [2].

Disparity energy model with keypoint disparity validation

A biological disparity energy model can estimate local depth information by using a population of V1 complex cells. Instead of applying an analytical model which explicitly involves cell parameters like spatial frequency, orientation, binocular phase and position difference, we developed a model which only involves the cells’ responses, such that disparity can be extracted from a population code, using only a set of previously trained cells with random-dot stereograms of uniform disparity. Despite good results in smooth regions, the model needs complementary processing, notably at depth transitions. We therefore introduce a new model to extract disparity at keypoints such as edge junctions, line endings and points with large curvature. Responses of end-stopped cells serve to detect keypoints, and those of simple cells are used to detect orientations of their underlying line and edge structures. Annotated keypoints are then used in the leftright matching process, with a hierarchical, multi-scale tree structure and a saliency map to segregate disparity. By combining both models we can (re)define depth transitions and regions where the disparity energy model is less accurate.