Statistical inference for the optimal approximating model

In the setting of high-dimensional linear models with Gaussian noise, we investigate the possibility of confidence statements connected to model selection. Although there exist numerous procedures for adaptive (point) estimation, the construction of adaptive confidence regions is severely limited (cf. Li in Ann Stat 17:1001–1008, 1989). The present paper sheds new light on this gap. We develop exact and adaptive confidence regions for the best approximating model in terms of risk. One of our constructions is based on a multiscale procedure and a particular coupling argument. Utilizing exponential inequalities for noncentral χ2-distributions, we show that the risk and quadratic loss of all models within our confidence region are uniformly bounded by the minimal risk times a factor close to one.

Using state variables to model the response of tumour cells to radiation and heat: a novel multi-hit-repair approach

In order to overcome the limitations of the linear-quadratic model and include synergistic effects of heat and radiation, a novel radiobiological model is proposed. The model is based on a chain of cell populations which are characterized by the number of radiation induced damages (hits). Cells can shift downward along the chain by collecting hits and upward by a repair process. The repair process is governed by a repair probability which depends upon state variables used for a simplistic description of the impact of heat and radiation upon repair proteins. Based on the parameters used, populations up to 4-5 hits are relevant for the calculation of the survival. The model describes intuitively the mathematical behaviour of apoptotic and nonapoptotic cell death. Linear-quadratic-linear behaviour of the logarithmic cell survival, fractionation, and (with one exception) the dose rate dependencies are described correctly. The model covers the time gap dependence of the synergistic cell killing due to combined application of heat and radiation, but further validation of the proposed approach based on experimental data is needed. However, the model offers a work bench for testing different biological concepts of damage induction, repair, and statistical approaches for calculating the variables of state.

An Ensemble Kalman Filter multi-tracer assimilation: Determining uncertain ocean model parameters for improved climate-carbon cycle projections

An Ensemble Kalman Filter is applied to assimilate observed tracer fields in various combinations in the Bern3D ocean model. Each tracer combination yields a set of optimal transport parameter values that are used in projections with prescribed CO2 stabilization pathways. The assimilation of temperature and salinity fields yields a too vigorous ventilation of the thermocline and the deep ocean, whereas the inclusion of CFC-11 and radiocarbon improves the representation of physical and biogeochemical tracers and of ventilation time scales. Projected peak uptake rates and cumulative uptake of CO2 by the ocean are around 20% lower for the parameters determined with CFC-11 and radiocarbon as additional target compared to those with salinity and temperature only. Higher surface temperature changes are simulated in the Greenland–Norwegian–Iceland Sea and in the Southern Ocean when CFC-11 is included in the Ensemble Kalman model tuning. These findings highlights the importance of ocean transport calibration for the design of near-term and long-term CO2 emission mitigation strategies and for climate projections.

Landmark Detection for Fusion of Fundus and MRI Towards a Patient-Specific Multi-Modal Eye Model

Ophthalmologists typically acquire different image modalities to diagnose eye pathologies. They comprise e.g., Fundus photography, Optical Coherence Tomography (OCT), Computed Tomography (CT) and Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI). Yet, these images are often complementary and do express the same pathologies in a different way. Some pathologies are only visible in a particular modality. Thus, it is beneficial for the ophthalmologist to have these modalities fused into a single patient-specific model. The presented article’s goal is a fusion of Fundus photography with segmented MRI volumes. This adds information to MRI which was not visible before like vessels and the macula. This article’s contributions include automatic detection of the optic disc, the fovea, the optic axis and an automatic segmentation of the vitreous humor of the eye.

Social Support at the Workplace, Motivation to Transfer, and Training Transfer: A Multi-Level Indirect Effects Model

Supervisor support, peer support and transfer motivation have been identified as important predictors for training transfer. Transfer motivation is supposed to mediate the support–training transfer relationship. Especially after team training interventions that include all team members (i.e., intact-team training), individual perception of these factors might be shared among team members. However, an integration of the team level in the training transfer process is rare, yet still needed. Analyzing 194 employees from 34 teams in the context of intact-team training interventions, we found similar relationships and processes at both levels of analysis: Social support enhances transfer motivation at the individual and team levels. Furthermore, motivation to transfer increases training transfer and serves as a connecting mechanism in the social support–training transfer link. The results underline the importance of (1) considering multiple levels in theories and research about the training transfer process and (2) ensuring the practice of individual-directed support and a shared, supportive climate within teams.