Integration of natural hazards, risk and climate change into spatial planning practices

Most countries of Europe, as well as many countries in other parts of the world, are experiencing an increased impact of natural hazards. It is often speculated, but not yet proven, that climate change might influence the frequency and magnitude of certain hydro-meteorological natural hazards. What has certainly been observed is a sharp increase in financial losses caused by natural hazards worldwide. Eventhough Europe appears to be a space that is not affected by natural hazards to such catastrophic extents as other parts of the world are, the damages experienced here are certainly increasing too. Natural hazards, climate change and, in particular, risks have therefore recently been put high on the political agenda of the EU. In the search for appropriate instruments for mitigating impacts of natural hazards and climate change, as well as risks, the integration of these factors into spatial planning practices is constantly receiving higher attention. The focus of most approaches lies on single hazards and climate change mitigation strategies. The current paradigm shift of climate change mitigation to adaptation is used as a basis to draw conclusions and recommendations on what concepts could be further incorporated into spatial planning practices. Especially multi-hazard approaches are discussed as an important approach that should be developed further. One focal point is the definition and applicability of the terms natural hazard, vulnerability and risk in spatial planning practices. Especially vulnerability and risk concepts are so many-fold and complicated that their application in spatial planning has to be analysed most carefully. The PhD thesis is based on six published articles that describe the results of European research projects, which have elaborated strategies and tools for integrated communication and assessment practices on natural hazards and climate change impacts. The papers describe approaches on local, regional and European level, both from theoretical and practical perspectives. Based on these, passed, current and future potential spatial planning applications are reviewed and discussed. In conclusion it is recommended to shift from single hazard assessments to multi-hazard approaches, integrating potential climate change impacts. Vulnerability concepts should play a stronger role than present, and adaptation to natural hazards and climate change should be more emphasized in relation to mitigation. It is outlined that the integration of risk concepts in planning is rather complicated and would need very careful assessment to ensure applicability. Future spatial planning practices should also consider to be more interdisciplinary, i.e. to integrate as many stakeholders and experts as possible to ensure the sustainability of investments.

Isotopic fingerprints in surficial waters : Stable isotope methods applied in hydrogeological studies

The driving force behind this study has been the need to develop and apply methods for investigating the hydrogeochemical processes of significance to water management and artificial groundwater recharge. Isotope partitioning of elements in the course of physicochemical processes produces isotopic variations to their natural reservoirs. Tracer property of the stable isotope abundances of oxygen, hydrogen and carbon has been applied to investigate hydrogeological processes in Finland. The work described here has initiated the use of stable isotope methods to achieve a better understanding of these processes in the shallow glacigenic formations of Finland. In addition, the regional precipitation and groundwater records will supplement the data of global precipitation, but as importantly, provide primary background data for hydrological studies. The isotopic composition of oxygen and hydrogen in Finnish groundwaters and atmospheric precipitation was determined in water samples collected during 1995 2005. Prior to this study, no detailed records existed on the spatial or annual variability of the isotopic composition of precipitation or groundwaters in Finland. Groundwaters and precipitation in Finland display a distinct spatial distribution of the isotopic ratios of oxygen and hydrogen. The depletion of the heavier isotopes as a function of increasing latitude is closely related to the local mean surface temperature. No significant differences were observed between the mean annual isotope ratios of oxygen and hydrogen in precipitation and those in local groundwaters. These results suggest that the link between the spatial variability in the isotopic composition of precipitation and local temperature is preserved in groundwaters. Artificial groundwater recharge to glaciogenic sedimentary formations offers many possibilities to apply the isotopic ratios of oxygen, hydrogen and carbon as natural isotopic tracers. In this study the systematics of dissolved carbon have been investigated in two geochemically different glacigenic groundwater formations: a typical esker aquifer at Tuusula, in southern Finland and a carbonate-bearing aquifer with a complex internal structure at Virttaankangas, in southwest Finland. Reducing the concentration of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in water is a primary challenge in the process of artificial groundwater recharge. The carbon isotope method was used to as a tool to trace the role of redox processes in the decomposition of DOC. At the Tuusula site, artificial recharge leads to a significant decrease in the organic matter content of the infiltrated water. In total, 81% of the initial DOC present in the infiltrated water was removed in three successive stages of subsurface processes. Three distinct processes in the reduction of the DOC content were traced: The decomposition of dissolved organic carbon in the first stage of subsurface flow appeared to be the most significant part in DOC removal, whereas further decrease in DOC has been attributed to adsorption and finally to dilution with local groundwater. Here, isotope methods were used for the first time to quantify the processes of DOC removal in an artificial groundwater recharge. Groundwaters in the Virttaankangas aquifer are characterized by high pH values exceeding 9, which are exceptional for shallow aquifers on glaciated crystalline bedrock. The Virttaankangas sediments were discovered to contain trace amounts of fine grained, dispersed calcite, which has a high tendency to increase the pH of local groundwaters. Understanding the origin of the unusual geochemistry of the Virttaankangas groundwaters is an important issue for constraining the operation of the future artificial groundwater plant. The isotope ratios of oxygen and carbon in sedimentary carbonate minerals have been successfully applied to constrain the origin of the dispersed calcite in the Virttaankangas sediments. The isotopic and chemical characteristics of the groundwater in the distinct units of aquifer were observed to vary depending on the aquifer mineralogy, groundwater residence time and the openness of the system to soil CO2. The high pH values of > 9 have been related to dissolution of calcite into groundwater under closed or nearly closed system conditions relative to soil CO2, at a low partial pressure of CO2.

Archaean crustal evolution in eastern Finland : New geochronological and geochemical constraints from the Kuhmo terrain and the Nurmes belt

This thesis summarises the results of four original papers concerning U-Pb geochronology and geochemical evolution of Archaean rocks from the Kuhmo terrain and the Nurmes belt, eastern Finland. The study area belongs to a typical Archaean granite-greenstone terrain, composed of metavolcanic and metasedimentary rocks in generally N-S trending greenstone belts as well as a granitoid-gneiss complex with intervening gneissic and migmatised supracrustal and plutonic rocks. U-Pb data on migmatite mesosomes indicate that the crust surrounding the Tipasjärvi-Kuhmo-Suomussalmi greenstone belt is of varying age. The oldest protolith detected for a migmatite mesosome from the granitoid-gneiss complex is 2.94 Ga, whereas the other dated migmatites protoliths have ages of 2.84 2.79 Ga. The latter protoliths are syngenetic with the majority of volcanic rocks in the adjacent Tipasjärvi-Kuhmo-Suomussalmi greenstone belt. This suggests that the genesis of some of the volcanic rocks within the greenstone belt and surrounding migmatite protoliths could be linked. Metamorphic zircon overgrowths with ages of 2.84 2.81 Ga were also obtained. The non-migmatised plutonic rocks in the Kuhmo terrain and in the Nurmes belt record secular geochemical evolution, typical of Archaean cratons. The studied tonalitic rocks have ages of 2.83 2.75 Ga and they have geochemical characteristics similar to low-Al and high-Al TTD (tonalite-trondhjemite-dacite). The granodiorites, diorites, and gabbros with high Mg/Fe and LILE-enriched characteristics were mostly emplaced between 2.74 2.70 Ga and they exhibit geochemical characteristics typical of Archaean sanukitoid suites. The latest identified plutonic episode took place at 2.70 2.68 Ga, when compositionally heterogeneous leucocratic granitoid rocks, with a variable crustal component, were emplaced. U-Pb data on migmatite leucosomes suggest that leucosome generation may have been coeval with this latest plutonic event. On the basis of available U-Pb and Sm-Nd isotopic data it appears that the plutonic rocks of the Kuhmo terrain and the Nurmes belt do not contain any significant input from Palaeoarchaean sources. A characteristic feature of the Nurmes belt is the presence of migmatised paragneisses, locally preserving primary edimentary structures, with sporadic amphibolite intercalations. U-Pb studies on zircons indicate that the precursors of the Nurmes paragneisses were graywackes that were deposited between 2.71 Ga and 2.69 Ga and that they had a prominent 2.75 2.70 Ga source. Nd isotopic and whole-rock geochemical data for the intercalated amphibolites imply MORB sources. U-Pb data on zircons from the plutonic rocks and paragneisses reveal that metamorphic zircon growth took place at 2.72 2.63 Ga. This was the last tectonothermal event related to cratonisation of the Archaean crust of eastern Finland.

Environmental change and anthropogenic impact on lake sediments during the Holocene in the Finnish - Karelian inland area

This thesis discusses the prehistoric human disturbance during the Holocene by means of case studies using detailed high-resolution pollen analysis from lake sediment. The four lakes studied are situated between 61o 40' and 61o 50' latitudes in the Finnish Karelian inland area and vary between 2.4 and 28.8 ha in size. The existence of Early Metal Age population was one important question. Another study question concerned the development of grazing, and the relationship between slash-and-burn cultivation and permanent field cultivation. The results were presented as pollen percentages and pollen concentrations (grains cm 3). Accumulation values (grains cm 2 yr 1) were calculated for Lake Nautajärvi and Lake Orijärvi sediment, where the sediment accumulation rate was precisely determined. Sediment properties were determined using loss-on-ignition (LOI) and magnetic susceptibility (k). Dating methods used include both conventional and AMS 14C determinations, paleomagnetic dating and varve choronology. The isolation of Lake Kirjavalampi on the northern shore of Lake Ladoga took place ca. 1460 1300 BC. The long sediment cores from Finland, Lake Kirkkolampi and Lake Orijärvi in southeastern Finland and Lake Nautajärvi in south central Finland all extended back to the Early Holocene and were isolated from the Baltic basin ca. 9600 BC, 8600 BC and 7675 BC, respectively. In the long sediment cores, the expansion of Alnus was visible between 7200 - 6840 BC. The spread of Tilia was dated in Lake Kirkkolampi to 6600 BC, in Lake Orijärvi to 5000 BC and at Lake Nautajärvi to 4600 BC. Picea is present locally in Lake Kirkkolampi from 4340 BC, in Lake Orijärvi from 6520 BC and in Lake Nautajärvi from 3500 BC onwards. The first modifications in the pollen data, apparently connected to anthropogenic impacts, were dated to the beginning of the Early Metal Period, 1880 1600 BC. Anthropogenic activity became clear in all the study sites by the end of the Early Metal Period, between 500 BC AD 300. According to Secale pollen, slash-and-burn cultivation was practised around the eastern study lakes from AD 300 600 onwards, and at the study site in central Finland from AD 880 onwards. The overall human impact, however, remained low in the studied sites until the Late Iron Age. Increasing human activity, including an increase in fire frequency was detected from AD 800 900 onwards in the study sites in eastern Finland. In Lake Kirkkolampi, this included cultivation on permanent fields, but in Lake Orijärvi, permanent field cultivation became visible as late as AD 1220, even when the macrofossil data demonstrated the onset of cultivation on permanent fields as early as the 7th century AD. On the northern shore of Lake Ladoga, local activity became visible from ca. AD 1260 onwards and at Lake Nautajärvi, sediment the local occupation was traceable from 1420 AD onwards. The highest values of Secale pollen were recorded both in Lake Orijärvi and Lake Kirjavalampi between ca. AD 1700 1900, and could be associated with the most intensive period of slash-and-burn from AD 1750 to 1850 in eastern Finland.

Numerical Simulation of Groundwater Flow with Gradually Increasing Heterogeneity due to Clogging

Well injection replenishes depleting water levels in a well field. Observation well water levels some distance away from the injection well are the indicators of the success of a well injection program. Simulation of the observation well response, located a few tens of meters from the injection well, is likely to be affected by the effects of nonhomogeneous medium, inclined initial water table, and aquifer clogging. Existing algorithms, such as the U.S. Geological Survey groundwater flow software MODFLOW, are capable of handling the first two conditions, whereas time-dependent clogging effects are yet to be introduced in the groundwater flow models. Elsewhere, aquifer clogging is extensively researched in theory of filtration; scope for its application in a well field is a potential research problem. In the present paper, coupling of one such filtration theory to MODFLOW is introduced. Simulation of clogging effects during “Hansol” well recharge in the parts of western India is found to be encouraging.

The prehistory of Suomussalmi, eastern Finland; the first billion years as revealed by isotopes and the composition of granitoid suites

The four papers summarized in this thesis deal with the Archean and earliest Paleoproterozoic granitoid suites observed in the Suomussalmi district, eastern Finland. Geologically, the area belongs to the Kianta Complex of the Western Karelian Terrane in the Karelian Province of the Fennoscandian shield. The inherited zircons up to 3440 Ma old together with Sm Nd and Pb Pb data confirm the existence of previously anticipated Paleoarchean protocrust in Suomussalmi. The general timeline of granitoid magmatism is similar to that of the surrounding areas. TTG magmatism occurred in three distinct phases: ca 2.95 Ga, 2.83 2.78 Ga and 2.76 2.74 Ga. In Suomussalmi the TTGs sensu stricto (K2O/Na2O less than 0.5) belong to the low-HREE type and are interpreted as partial melts of garnet amphibolites, which did not significantly interact with mantle peridotites. Transitional TTGs (K2O/Na2O more than 0.5), present in Suomussalmi and absent from surrounding areas, display higher LILE concentrations, but otherwise closely resemble the TTGs sensu stricto and indicate that recycling of felsic crust commenced in Suomussalmi 200 Ma earlier than in surrounding areas. The youngest TTG phase was coeval with the intrusion of the Likamännikkö quartz alkali feldspar syenite (2741 ± 2 Ma) complex. The complex contains angular fragments of ultrabasic rock, which display considerable compositional heterogeneity and are interpreted as cumulates containing clinopyroxene (generally altered to actinolite), apatite, allanite, epidote, and albite. The quartz alkali feldspar syenite cannot be regarded as alkaline sensu stricto, despite clear alkaline affinities. Within Likamännikkö there are also calcite carbonatite patches, which display mantle-like O- and C-isotope values, as well as trace element characteristics consistent with a magmatic origin, and could thus be among the oldest known carbonatites in the world. Sanukitoid (2.73 2.71 Ga) and quartz diorite suites (2.70 Ga) overlap within error margins and display compositional similarities, but can be differentiated from each other on the basis of higher Ba, K2O and LREE contents of the sanukitoids. The Likamännikkö complex, sanukitoids and quartz diorites are interpreted as originating from the metasomatized mantle and mark the diversification of the granitoid clan after 200 Ma of evolution dominated by the TTG suite. Widespread migmatization and the intrusion of anatectic leucogranitoids as dykes and intrusions of varying size took place at 2.70 2.69 Ga, following collisional thickening of the crust. The leucogranitoids and leucosomes of migmatized TTGs are compositionally alike and characterized by high silica contents and a leucocratic appearance. Due to compositional overlap, definitive discrimination between leucogranitoids and transitional TTGs requires isotope datings and/or knowledge of field relationships. Leucogranitoids represent partial melts of the local TTGs, both the sensu stricto and transitional types, mostly derived under water fluxed conditions, with possible fluid sources being late sanukitoids and quartz diorites as well as dehydrating lower crust. The Paleoproterozoic 2.44 2.39 Ga A-type granitoids of the Kianta Complex emplaced in an extensional environment are linked to the coeval and more widespread mafic intrusions and dykes observed over most of the Archean nucleus of the Fennoscandian shield. The A-type intrusions in the Suomussalmi area are interpreted as partial melts of the Archean lower crust and display differences in composition and magnetite content, which indicate differences in the composition and oxidation state of the source.

A checking method for probabilistic seismic-hazard assessment: case studies on three cities

The conventional Cornell's source-based approach of probabilistic seismic-hazard assessment (PSHA) has been employed all around the world, whilst many studies often rely on the use of computer packages such as FRISK (McGuire FRISK-a computer program for seismic risk analysis. Open-File Report 78-1007, United States Geological Survey, Department of Interior, Washington 1978) and SEISRISK III (Bender and Perkins SEISRISK III-a computer program for seismic hazard estimation, Bulletin 1772. United States Geological Survey, Department of Interior, Washington 1987). A ``black-box'' syndrome may be resulted if the user of the software does not have another simple and robust PSHA method that can be used to make comparisons. An alternative method for PSHA, namely direct amplitude-based (DAB) approach, has been developed as a heuristic and efficient method enabling users to undertake their own sanity checks on outputs from computer packages. This paper experiments the application of the DAB approach for three cities in China, Iran, and India, respectively, and compares with documented results computed by the source-based approach. Several insights regarding the procedure of conducting PSHA have also been obtained, which could be useful for future seismic-hazard studies.

A general geomorphological recession flow model for river basins

Recession flows in a basin are controlled by the temporal evolution of its active drainage network (ADN). The geomorphological recession flow model (GRFM) assumes that both the rate of flow generation per unit ADN length (q) and the speed at which ADN heads move downstream (c) remain constant during a recession event. Thereby, it connects the power law exponent of -dQ/dt versus Q (discharge at the outlet at time t) curve, , with the structure of the drainage network, a fixed entity. In this study, we first reformulate the GRFM for Horton-Strahler networks and show that the geomorphic ((g)) is equal to D/(D-1), where D is the fractal dimension of the drainage network. We then propose a more general recession flow model by expressing both q and c as functions of Horton-Strahler stream order. We show that it is possible to have = (g) for a recession event even when q and c do not remain constant. The modified GRFM suggests that is controlled by the spatial distribution of subsurface storage within the basin. By analyzing streamflow data from 39 U.S. Geological Survey basins, we show that is having a power law relationship with recession curve peak, which indicates that the spatial distribution of subsurface storage varies across recession events. Key Points The GRFM is reformulated for Horton-Strahler networks. The GRFM is modified by allowing its parameters to vary along streams. Sub-surface storage distribution controls recession flow characteristics.

Saline water intrusion from deep artesian sources in McGregor Isles area of Lee County, Florida

Upward leakage of saline water from an artesian aquifer below 1,500 feet has caused an increase in chloride concentration in the lower Hawthorn aquifer from less than 1,000 mg/1 (milligrams per liter) to values ranging from about 1,300 to 15,000 mg/1. Similarly the higher temperatures of the intruding water has caused an increase in water temperatures in the aquifer from 82"F to values ranging from 83 to 93"F. The intruding water moves upward either through the open bore hole of deep wells or test holes, or along a fault or fracture system, which has been identified in the area. From these points of entry into the lower Hawthorn aquifer, the saline water spreads laterally toward the south and southeast, but is generally confined to components of the fault system. The saline water moves upward from the lower Hawthorn aquifer into the upper Hawthorn aquifer through the open bore hole of wells, which connect the aquifers. This movement has resulted in an increase in chloride from less than 200 mg/1 in the unaffected parts of the upper Hawthorn aquifer to values commonly ranging from about 300 to more than 3,000 mg/1 in parts of the aquifer affected by upward leakage. The upper Hawthorn aquifer is the principal source of ground-water supply for public water-supply systems in western Lee County. Similar effects have been noted in the water-table aquifer, where chloride increased from less than 100 to concentrations ranging from about 500 to more than 5,000 mg/1. This was caused by the downward infiltration of water discharged at land surface from wells tapping the lower Hawthorn aquifer. The spread of saline water throughout most of the McGregor Isles area is continuing as of 1971. (40 page document)

Hydrologic aspects of freshening upper Old Tampa Bay, Florida

Upper Old Tampa Bay, a 17-square mile area of Old Tampa Bay, Florida, has been proposed for conversion to a fresh-water lake. The amount of runoff to the proposed lake and its chemical quality are both adequate to freshen and sustain a fresh-water lake in this part of the bay. During 1950-66 runoff to the proposed lake, including discharge from Lake Tarpon, would have averaged 134 mgd (million gallons per day) and would have displaced the volume of the proposed lake at normal pool stage (2.5 feet above mean sea level) about 1.7 times per year. Without discharge from Lake Tarpon, the volume of the proposed lake would have been displaced 1.2 times. If the lake level was initially at a normal pool stage during a critically dry year, such as 1956, the proposed lake would have declined 0.25 to 0.5 foot below the minimum design level, (1.5 feet above mean sea level). (44 page document)

Ground water in the Hallandale area, Florida

The water problems confronting Hallandale are similar to those of other coastal cities of southeastern Florida which are undergoing rapid growth with tremendous increase in water demand. The highly permeable Biscayne aquifer underlying the Hallandale area is an excellent source of water; however, the permeable nature of the Biscayne aquifer would permit the intrusion of sea water, if fresh water levels were lowered excessively, as well as the infiltration of urban or industrial contaminants, from land surfaces and surface water bodies. This study is to provide the hydrologic data necessary for proper water resource development and planning in the Hallandale area. (40 page document)

Records of hydrologic data, Walton County, Florida

This report presents discharge, chemical analyses, temperatures, and specific conductance records collected at 25 surface-water sites and chemical analyses of ground water, well descriptions and records of ground-water levels collected at 164 ground-water sites. It also contains 35 logs of the sedimentary rocks penetrated in the drilling of wells and test borings ranging in depth from 147 to 625 feet. These hydrologic data were collected as part of an investigation of the water resources of the county. The interpretative results of the investigation are in the report entitled, "Water resources of Walton County," by C. A. Pascale (in preparation, 1971). (108 page document)

Flood of September 20-23, 1969 in the Gadsden County area, Florida

The center of low pressure of a tropical disturbance which moved northward in the Gulf of Mexico, reached land between Panama City and Port St. Joe, Florida, on September 20, 1969. This system was nearly stationary for 48 hours producing heavy rainfall in the Quincy-Havana area, 70-80 miles northeast of the center. Rainfall associated with the tropical disturbance exceeded 20 inches over a part of Gadsden County, Florida, during September 20 through 23, 1969, and the maximum rainfall of record occurred at Quincy with 10.87 inches during a 6-hour period on September 21. The 48-hour maximum of 17.71 inches exceeded the 1 in 100-year probability of 16 inches for a 7-day period. The previous maximum rainfall of record at Quincy (more than 12 inches) was on September 14-15, 1924. The characteristics of this historical storm were similar in path and effect to the September 1969 tropical disturbance. Peak runoff from a 1.4-square mile area near Midway, Florida, was 1,540 cfs (cubic feet per second) per square mile. A peak discharge of 45,600 cfs on September 22 at the gaging station on the Little River near Quincy exceeded the previous peak of 25,400 cfs which occurred on December 4, 1964. The peak discharge of 89,400 cfs at Ochlockonee River near Bloxham exceeded the April 1948 peak of 50,200 cfs, which was the previous maximum of record, by 1.8 times. Many flood-measurement sites had peak discharges in excess of that of a 50-year flood. Nearly $200,000 was spent on emergency repairs to roads. An additional $520,000 in contractual work was required to replace four bridges that were destroyed. Agricultural losses were estimated at $1,000,000. (44 page document)

Public water supplies of selected municipalities in Florida, 1970

This report summarizes municipal use of water in 138 selected municipalities in Florida as of December 1970 and includes the following: 1) Tabulation of data on water-use for each listed municipality; 2) tabulation of chemical analyses of water for each listed municipality; and 3) graphs of pumpage, included when available. Also included are selected recent references relating to geology, hydrology, and water resources of those areas in which the municipalities are located. (218 page document)

Flow and chemical characteristics of the St. Johns River at Jacksonville, Florida

This report will be of substantial value to water managers in developing the St. Johns River as a multiple resource. Evaluation of the capacity of the river to accept pollutants without adversely affecting other uses requires detailed data of flow and chemical characteristics and an understanding of how they interact. (66 page document)