Detecting common dynamics in transitory components

This paper considers VECMs for variables exhibiting cointegration and common features in the transitory components. While the presence of cointegration between the permanent components of series reduces the rank of the long-run multiplier matrix, a common feature among the transitory components leads to a rank reduction in the matrix summarizing short-run dynamics. The common feature also implies that there exists linear combinations of the first-differenced variables in a cointegrated VAR that are white noise and traditional tests focus on testing for this characteristic. An alternative, however, is to test the rank of the short-run dynamics matrix directly. Consequently, we use the literature on testing the rank of a matrix to produce some alternative test statistics. We also show that these are identical to one of the traditional tests. The performance of the different methods is illustrated in a Monte Carlo analysis which is then used to re-examine an existing empirical study. Finally, this approach is applied to provide a check for the presence of common dynamics in DSGE models.

Semi-parametric forecasting of realized volatility

Forecasts generated by time series models traditionally place greater weight on more recent observations. This paper develops an alternative semi-parametric method for forecasting that does not rely on this convention and applies it to the problem of forecasting asset return volatility. In this approach, a forecast is a weighted average of historical volatility, with the greatest weight given to periods that exhibit similar market conditions to the time at which the forecast is being formed. Weighting is determined by comparing short-term trends in volatility across time (as a measure of market conditions) by means of a multivariate kernel scheme. It is found that the semi-parametric method produces forecasts that are significantly more accurate than a number of competing approaches at both short and long forecast horizons.

Jackknife for bias reduction in predictive regressions

One of the fundamental econometric models in finance is predictive regression. The standard least squares method produces biased coefficient estimates when the regressor is persistent and its innovations are correlated with those of the dependent variable. This article proposes a general and convenient method based on the jackknife technique to tackle the estimation problem. The proposed method reduces the bias for both single- and multiple-regressor models and for both short- and long-horizon regressions. The effectiveness of the proposed method is demonstrated by simulations. An empirical application to equity premium prediction using the dividend yield and the short rate highlights the differences between the results by the standard approach and those by the bias-reduced estimator. The significant predictive variables under the ordinary least squares become insignificant after adjusting for the finite-sample bias. These discrepancies suggest that bias reduction in predictive regressions is important in practical applications.

Corporate fraud and misconduct : investigative and regulatory priorities

This article investigates the profile of the companies that have been investigated for corporate fraud and misconduct. Our definition of fraud includes financial statement fraud, market misconduct fraud such as insider trading or false disclosures, and managerial fraud. The particular evidence presented relates to those instances of corporate fraud and misconduct investigated by the Australian corporate regulatory, Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC), and relates to sanctions for fraud, misconduct or compliance breaches. Using data compiled from the public announcements in the ASIC reports over the period 2004-2008, we categorise the type of fraud and misconduct breaches ASIC chooses to report and investigate.

Budget-aware role based access control

The suitability of Role Based Access Control (RBAC) is being challenged in dynamic environments like healthcare. In an RBAC system, a user's legitimate access may be denied if their need has not been anticipated by the security administrator at the time of policy specification. Alternatively, even when the policy is correctly specified an authorised user may accidentally or intentionally misuse the granted permission. The heart of the challenge is the intrinsic unpredictability of users' operational needs as well as their incentives to misuse permissions. In this paper we propose a novel Budget-aware Role Based Access Control (B-RBAC) model that extends RBAC with the explicit notion of budget and cost, where users are assigned a limited budget through which they pay for the cost of permissions they need. We propose a model where the value of resources are explicitly defined and an RBAC policy is used as a reference point to discriminate the price of access permissions, as opposed to representing hard and fast rules for making access decisions. This approach has several desirable properties. It enables users to acquire unassigned permissions if they deem them necessary. However, users misuse capability is always bounded by their allocated budget and is further adjustable through the discrimination of permission prices. Finally, it provides a uniform mechanism for the detection and prevention of misuses.

Cultural relativity as exchange : J.W. Lindt’s 'bush character and Aboriginal' from 'The Grafton Album', circa 1872

J.W.Lindt’s Colonial man and Aborigine image from the GRAFTON ALBUM: “On chemistry and optics all does not depend, art must with these in triple union blend” (text from J.W. Lindt’s photographic backing card) In this paper, I follow an argument that Lindt held a position in his particular colonial environment where he was simultaneously both an insider and an outsider and that such a position may be considered prerequisite in stimulating exchange. A study of the transition of J.W. Lindt in Grafton, N.S.W. in the 1860s from a traveller to a migrant and subsequently to a professional photographer, as well as Lindt’s photographic career, which evolved through strategic action and technical approaches to photography, bears witness to his cultural relativity. One untitled photograph from this period of work constructs a unique commentary of Australian colonial life that illustrates a non-hegemonic position, particularly as it was included in one of the first albums of photographs of Aborigines that Lindt gifted to an illustrious person (in this case the Mayor of Grafton). As in his other studio constructions, props and backdrops were arranged and sitters were positioned with care, but this photograph is the only one in the album that includes a non-Aborigine in a relationship to an Aborigine. An analysis of the props, technical details of the album and the image suggests a reconciliatory aspect that thwarts the predominant attitudes towards Aborigines in the area at that time.

Approaches to access control under uncertainty

The ultimate goal of an access control system is to allocate each user the precise level of access they need to complete their job - no more and no less. This proves to be challenging in an organisational setting. On one hand employees need enough access to the organisation’s resources in order to perform their jobs and on the other hand more access will bring about an increasing risk of misuse - either intentionally, where an employee uses the access for personal benefit, or unintentionally, through carelessness or being socially engineered to give access to an adversary. This thesis investigates issues of existing approaches to access control in allocating optimal level of access to users and proposes solutions in the form of new access control models. These issues are most evident when uncertainty surrounding users’ access needs, incentive to misuse and accountability are considered, hence the title of the thesis. We first analyse access control in environments where the administrator is unable to identify the users who may need access to resources. To resolve this uncertainty an administrative model with delegation support is proposed. Further, a detailed technical enforcement mechanism is introduced to ensure delegated resources cannot be misused. Then we explicitly consider that users are self-interested and capable of misusing resources if they choose to. We propose a novel game theoretic access control model to reason about and influence the factors that may affect users’ incentive to misuse. Next we study access control in environments where neither users’ access needs can be predicted nor they can be held accountable for misuse. It is shown that by allocating budget to users, a virtual currency through which they can pay for the resources they deem necessary, the need for a precise pre-allocation of permissions can be relaxed. The budget also imposes an upper-bound on users’ ability to misuse. A generalised budget allocation function is proposed and it is shown that given the context information the optimal level of budget for users can always be numerically determined. Finally, Role Based Access Control (RBAC) model is analysed under the explicit assumption of administrators’ uncertainty about self-interested users’ access needs and their incentives to misuse. A novel Budget-oriented Role Based Access Control (B-RBAC) model is proposed. The new model introduces the notion of users’ behaviour into RBAC and provides means to influence users’ incentives. It is shown how RBAC policy can be used to individualise the cost of access to resources and also to determine users’ budget. The implementation overheads of B-RBAC is examined and several low-cost sub-models are proposed.

Multipurpose identity-based signcryption : a Swiss army knife for identity-based cryptography

Identity-Based (IB) cryptography is a rapidly emerging approach to public-key cryptography that does not require principals to pre-compute key pairs and obtain certificates for their public keys— instead, public keys can be arbitrary identifiers such as email addresses, while private keys are derived at any time by a trusted private key generator upon request by the designated principals. Despite the flurry of recent results on IB encryption and signature, some questions regarding the security and efficiency of practicing IB encryption (IBE) and signature (IBS) as a joint IB signature/encryption (IBSE) scheme with a common set of parameters and keys, remain unanswered. We first propose a stringent security model for IBSE schemes. We require the usual strong security properties of: (for confidentiality) indistinguishability against adaptive chosen-ciphertext attacks, and (for nonrepudiation) existential unforgeability against chosen-message insider attacks. In addition, to ensure as strong as possible ciphertext armoring, we also ask (for anonymity) that authorship not be transmitted in the clear, and (for unlinkability) that it remain unverifiable by anyone except (for authentication) by the legitimate recipient alone. We then present an efficient IBSE construction, based on bilinear pairings, that satisfies all these security requirements, and yet is as compact as pairing-based IBE and IBS in isolation. Our scheme is secure, compact, fast and practical, offers detachable signatures, and supports multirecipient encryption with signature sharing for maximum scalability.

Empowering the school community for change : an evaluation of participation in the Ashgrove Healthy School Environment Project

The purpose of this study was to evaluate aspects of participation in a participatory action research project, the Ashgrove Healthy School Environment Project. Participatory action research is a form of research that creates change as an explicit part of the research process and requires the active participation of those by and for whom the research is being conducted. This study arose from concems by this researcher, who is also a co-facilitator of the project, that levels of participation were not as extensive as one might have hoped and that this seemingly low level would have a negative impact on the continuing participation of those already involved. Specifically. this evaluation sought to uncover the reasons that prompted participation, to identify structural barriers to initial involvement and to uncover participants' perceptions of the process, including barriers and opportunities. It also sought to record evidence of any shift in decision making and to draw implications about the findings that could assist the project, the school, other schools and the wider community. This evaluation involved focus group discussions and interviews with participants actively involved in the school project. The purpose was to uncover their views, feelings and perceptions about their participation and the participatory processes in use generally. It also included some examination of school documents and newsletters and as also drawn on the reflections of this 'insider' researcher, based on two years of involvement in facilitating the project. The findings that emerge from this study are heartening. Rather than feeling anxious about the long-term sustainability of the project, this researcher now feels more confident about its achievements, both in terms of the changes that have occurred in the school and about the participatory processes and levels of participation. Whilst the evaluation has identified a number of barriers, both institutional, personal and project related, it has also identified several key factors that serve to promote participation.

A quasi-maximum likelihood method for estimating the parameters of multivariate diffusions

A quasi-maximum likelihood procedure for estimating the parameters of multi-dimensional diffusions is developed in which the transitional density is a multivariate Gaussian density with first and second moments approximating the true moments of the unknown density. For affine drift and diffusion functions, the moments are exactly those of the true transitional density and for nonlinear drift and diffusion functions the approximation is extremely good and is as effective as alternative methods based on likelihood approximations. The estimation procedure generalises to models with latent factors. A conditioning procedure is developed that allows parameter estimation in the absence of proxies.

Intercultural dance : exploring a Finnish migrant connection with indigenous cultures through dance

This research is a dance-based, autoethnographic study which explores my connection with place as a Savolainen woman born on Kalkadoon country; an Australian-born Finn. Edward Relph states 'the more profoundly inside a place the person feels, the stronger will be his or her identity with that place' (1976, 49). I am interested in how a sense of "place identity" has informed my choreographic practice. Autoethnography is important because it places the research within a lived experience: my insider account of a lived experience within the White Australia Policy through my lens as a first generation Australian-born Finn. It also speaks to the space in-between for those, like me, who feel they do not fit into mainstream identity but look like they do. By exploring my lived experience through dance autoethnography, new understandings of my place identity within a cultural, social and political context have emerged. Ellis and Flaherty state ‘subjectivity is situated such that the voices in our heads and the feelings in our bodies are linked to political, cultural, and historical contexts’ (1992, 4). In order to begin my rehearsal process, I wanted a cultural framework which related to connection with land to guide the research. My investigations led me to the Maori examples of "Tikanga Maori" (Tikanga are the customs and traditions), in particular the "Pepeha" (Introduction) and allowed me to challenge my choreographic practice through this cultural framework.

The impact of auditor independence regulations on established and emerging firms.

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to study whether auditor independence reforms introduced in 2004 led to an enhancement in earnings quality in the post-reform era. Design/methodology/approach – This study predicts that as the cost of compliance will vary based on a firm's existing corporate governance regime and the level of external scrutiny (monitoring) it faces, we compare the earnings quality of a sample of “established” (S&P/ASX 100) to a sample of “emerging” (S&P/ASX Small Ordinaries Index) firms. The paper examines the reporting behaviour of the two groups of listed entities, covering the regulatory change period 2003-2006. The paper uses regression modelling to test the associations between increased audit independence, earnings quality and corporate governance mechanisms over the pre- and post-regulatory period. Findings – The paper's results confirm that earnings quality for the established firms was enhanced in the post-reform period; while this was not the case for emerging firms. The evidence also suggests that corporate governance mechanisms of board independence and board financial skill are associated with higher earnings quality; while the higher the concentration of insider firm ownership is associated with lower earnings quality. Practical implications – This study provides policy makers with evidence as to changes in reporting behaviour following law reform aimed at strengthening auditor independence. Originality/value – The studies on earnings quality are informed by the US market practices. Australia provides a unique setting through its auditor independence reforms to examine the impact of reform choices. This study also investigates two specific subsets of the market: established firms and emerging firms.