Using Bayesian networks to model surveillance in complex plant and animal health systems

In this chapter we consider biosecurity surveillance as part of a complex system comprising many different biological, environmental and human factors and their interactions. Modelling and analysis of surveillance strategies should take into account these complexities, and also facilitate the use and integration of the many types of different information that can provide insight into the system as a whole. After a brief discussion of a range of options, we focus on Bayesian networks for representing such complex systems. We summarize the features of Bayesian networks and describe these in the context of surveillance.

Methodological perspectives for register-based health system performance assessment : Developing a hip fracture monitoring system in Finland

The resources of health systems are limited. There is a need for information concerning the performance of the health system for the purposes of decision-making. This study is about utilization of administrative registers in the context of health system performance evaluation. In order to address this issue, a multidisciplinary methodological framework for register-based data analysis is defined. Because the fixed structure of register-based data indirectly determines constraints on the theoretical constructs, it is essential to elaborate the whole analytic process with respect to the data. The fundamental methodological concepts and theories are synthesized into a data sensitive approach which helps to understand and overcome the problems that are likely to be encountered during a register-based data analyzing process. A pragmatically useful health system performance monitoring should produce valid information about the volume of the problems, about the use of services and about the effectiveness of provided services. A conceptual model for hip fracture performance assessment is constructed and the validity of Finnish registers as a data source for the purposes of performance assessment of hip fracture treatment is confirmed. Solutions to several pragmatic problems related to the development of a register-based hip fracture incidence surveillance system are proposed. The monitoring of effectiveness of treatment is shown to be possible in terms of care episodes. Finally, an example on the justification of a more detailed performance indicator to be used in the profiling of providers is given. In conclusion, it is possible to produce useful and valid information on health system performance by using Finnish register-based data. However, that seems to be far more complicated than is typically assumed. The perspectives given in this study introduce a necessary basis for further work and help in the routine implementation of a hip fracture monitoring system in Finland.

Perinatal mortality and maternal health in rural China

Background and context Since the economic reforms of 1978, China has been acclaimed as a remarkable economy, achieving 9% annual growth per head for more than 25 years. However, China's health sector has not fared well. The population health gains slowed down and health disparities increased. In the field of health and health care, significant progress in maternal care has been achieved. However, there still remain important disparities between the urban and rural areas and among the rural areas in terms of economic development. The excess female infant deaths and the rapidly increasing sex ratio at birth in the last decade aroused serious concerns among policy makers and scholars. Decentralization of the government administration and health sector reform impacts maternal care. Many studies using census data have been conducted to explore the determinants of a high sex ratio at birth, but no agreement has been so far reached on the possible contributing factors. No study using family planning system data has been conducted to explore perinatal mortality and sex ratio at birth and only few studies have examined the impact of the decentralization of government and health sector reforms on the provision and organization of maternal care in rural China. Objectives The general objective of this study was to investigate the state of perinatal health and maternal care and their determinants in rural China under the historic context of major socioeconomic reforms and the one child family planning policy. The specific objectives of the study included: 1) to study pregnancy outcomes and perinatal health and their correlates in a rural Chinese county; 2) to examine the issue of sex ratio at birth and its determinants in a rural Chinese county; 3) to explore the patterns of provision, utilization, and content of maternal care in a rural Chinese county; 4) to investigate the changes in the use of maternal care in China from 1991 to 2003. Materials and Methods This study is based on a project for evaluating the prenatal care programme in Dingyuan county in 1999-2003, Anhui province, China and a nationwide household health survey to describe the changes in maternal care utilization. The approaches used included a retrospective cohort study, cross sectional interview surveys, informant interviews, observations and the use of statistical data. The data sources included the following: 1) A cohort of pregnant women followed from pregnancy up to 7 days after birth in 20 townships in the study county, collecting information on pregnancy outcomes using family planning records; 2) A questionnaire interview survey given to women who gave birth between 2001 and 2003; 3) Various statistical and informant surveys data collected from the study county; 4) Three national household health interview survey data sets (1993-2003) were utilized, and reanalyzed to described the changes in maternity care utilization. Relative risks (RR) and their confidence intervals (CI) were calculated for comparison between parity, approval status, infant sex and township groups. The chi-square test was used to analyse the disparity of use of maternal care between and within urban and rural areas and its trend across the years in China. Logistic regression was used to analyse the factors associated with hospital delivery in rural areas. Results There were 3697 pregnancies in the study cohort, resulting in 3092 live births in a total population of 299463 in the 20 study townships during 1999-2000. The average age at pregnancy in the cohort was 25.9 years. Of the women, 61% were childless, 38% already had one child and 0.3% had two children before the current pregnancy. About 90% of approved pregnancies ended in a live birth while 73% of the unapproved ones were aborted. The perinatal mortality rate was 69 per thousand births. If the 30 induced abortions in which the gestational age was more than 28 weeks had been counted as perinatal deaths, the perinatal mortality rate would have been as high as 78 per thousand. The perinatal mortality rate was negatively associated with the wealth of the township. Approximately two thirds of the perinatal deaths occurred in the early neonatal period. Both the still birth rate and the early neonatal death rate increased with parity. The risk of a stillbirth in a second pregnancy was almost four times that for a first pregnancy, while the risk of early neonatal deaths doubled. The early neonatal mortality rate was twice as high for female as for male infants. The sex difference in the early neonatal mortality rate was mainly attributable to mortality in second births. The male early neonatal mortality rate was not affected by parity, while the female early neonatal mortality rate increased dramatically with parity: it was about six times higher for second births than for first births. About 82% early neonatal deaths happened within 24 hours after birth, and during that time, girls were almost three times more likely to die than boys. The death rate of females on the day of birth increased much more sharply with parity than that of males. The total sex ratio at birth of 3697 registered pregnancies was 152 males to 100 females, with 118 and 287 in first and second pregnancies, respectively. Among unapproved pregnancies, there were almost 5 live-born boys for each girl. Most prenatal and delivery care was to be taken care of in township hospitals. At the village level, there were small private clinics. There was no limitation period for the provision of prenatal and postnatal care by private practitioners. They were not permitted to provide delivery care by the county health bureau, but as some 12% of all births occurred either at home or at private clinics; some village health workers might have been involved. The county level hospitals served as the referral centers for the township hospitals in the county. However, there was no formal regulation or guideline on how the referral system should work. Whether or not a woman was referred to a higher level hospital depended on the individual midwife's professional judgment and on the clients' compliance. The county health bureau had little power over township hospitals, because township hospitals had in the decentralization process become directly accountable to the township government. In the township and county hospitals only 10-20% of the recurrent costs were funded by local government (the township hospital was funded by the township government and the county hospital was funded by the county government) and the hospitals collected user fees to balance their budgets. Also the staff salaries depended on fee incomes by the hospital. The hospitals could define the user charges themselves. Prenatal care consultations were however free in most township hospitals. None of the midwives made postnatal home visits, because of low profit of these services. The three national household health survey data showed that the proportion of women receiving their first prenatal visit within 12 weeks increased greatly from the early to middle 1990s in all areas except for large cities. The increase was much larger in the rural areas, reducing the urban-rural difference from more than 4 times to about 1.4 times. The proportion of women that received antenatal care visits meeting the Ministry of Health s standard (at least 5 times) in the rural areas increased sharply from 12% in 1991-1993 to 36% in 2001-2003. In rural areas, the proportion increase was much faster in less developed areas than in developed areas. The hospital delivery rate increased slightly from 90% to 94% in urban areas while the proportion increased from 27% to 69% in rural areas. The fastest change was found to be in type 4 rural areas, where the utilization even quadrupled. The overall difference between rural and urban areas was substantially narrowed over the period. Multiple logistic regression analysis shows that time periods, residency in rural or urban areas, income levels, age group, education levels, delivery history, occupation, health insurance and distance from the nearest health care facilities were significantly associated with hospital delivery rates. Conclusions 1. Perinatal mortality in this study was much higher than that for urban areas as well as any reported rate from specific studies in rural areas of China. Previous studies in which calculations of infant mortality were not based on epidemiological surveys have been shown to underestimate the rates by more than 50%. 2. Routine statistics collected by the Chinese family planning system proved to be a reliable data source for studying perinatal health, including still births, neonatal deaths, sex ratio at birth and among newborns. National Household Health Survey data proved to be a useful and reliable data source for studying population health and health services. Prior to this research there were few studies in these areas available to international audiences. 3.Though perinatal mortality rate was negatively associated with the level of township economic development, the excess female early neonatal mortality rate contributed much more to high perinatal mortality rate than economic factors. This was likely a result of the role of the family planning policy and the traditional preferences for sons, which leads to lethal neglect of female newborns and high perinatal mortality. 4. The selective abortions of female foetuses were likely to contribute most to the high sex ratio at birth. The underreporting of female births seemed to have played a secondary role. The higher early neonatal mortality rate in second-born as compared to first-born children, particularly in females, may indicate that neglect or poorer care of female newborn infants also contributes to the high sex ratio at birth or among newborns. Existing family planning policy proved not to effectively control the steadily increased birth sex ratio. 5. The rural-urban gap in service utilization was on average significantly narrowed in terms of maternal healthcare in China from 1991 to 2003. This demonstrates that significant achievements in reducing inequities can be made through a combination of socio-economic development and targeted investments in improving health services, including infrastructure, staff capacities, and subsidies to reduce the costs of service utilization for the poorest. However, the huge gap which persisted among cities of different size and within different types of rural areas indicated the need for further efforts to support the poorest areas. 6. Hospital delivery care in the study county was better accepted by women because most of women think delivery care was very important while prenatal and postnatal care were not. Hospital delivery care was more systematically provided and promoted than prenatal and postnatal care by township hospital in the study area. The reliance of hospital staff income on user fees gave the hospitals an incentive to put more emphasis on revenue generating activities such as delivery care instead of prenatal and postnatal care, since delivery care generated much profits than prenatal and postnatal care . Recommendations 1. It is essential for the central government to re-assess and modify existing family planning policies. In order to keep national sex balance, the existing practice of one couple one child in urban areas and at-least-one-son a couple in rural areas should be gradually changed to a two-children-a-couple policy throughout the country. The government should establish a favourable social security policy for couples, especially for rural couples who have only daughters, with particular emphasis on their pension and medical care insurance, combined with an educational campaign for equal rights for boys and girls in society. 2. There is currently no routine vital-statistics registration system in rural China. Using the findings of this study, the central government could set up a routine vital-statistics registration system using family planning routine work records, which could be used by policy makers and researchers. 3. It is possible for the central and provincial government to invest more in the less developed and poor rural areas to increase the access of pregnant women in these areas to maternal care services. Central government together with local government should gradually provide free maternal care including prenatal and postnatal as well as delivery care to the women in poor and less developed rural areas. 4. Future research could be done to explore if county and the township level health care sector and the family planning system could be merged to increase the effectiveness and efficiency of maternal and child care. 5. Future research could be done to explore the relative contribution of maternal care, economic development and family planning policy on perinatal and child health using prospective cohort studies and community based randomized trials. Key words: perinatal health, perinatal mortality, stillbirth, neonatal death, sex selective abortion, sex ratio at birth, family planning, son preference, maternal care, prenatal care, postnatal care, equity, China

Procurement of electronic content across the UK National Health Service and Higher Education sectors. Report to JISC executive and LKDN executive.

Spink, S., Urquhart, C., Cox, A. & Higher Education Academy - Information and Computer Sciences Subject Centre. (2007). Procurement of electronic content across the UK National Health Service and Higher Education sectors. Report to JISC executive and LKDN executive. Sponsorship: JISC/LKDN

Developing a toolkit for assessing the impact of health library services on patient care

Urquhart,C., Spink, S., Thomas, R. & Weightman, A. (2007). Developing a toolkit for assessing the impact of health library services on patient care. Report to LKDN (Libraries and Knowledge Development Network). Aberystwyth: Department of Information Studies, Aberystwyth University. Sponsorship: Libraries and Knowledge Development Network/ NHS

Collaboration on procurement of e-content between the National Health Service and higher education in the UK

Urquhart, C. J., Cox, A. M.& Spink, S. (2007). Collaboration on procurement of e-content between the National Health Service and higher education in the UK. Interlending & Document Supply, 35(3), 164-170. Sponsorship: JISC, LKDN

Assessing the Oral Health Needs of Public Housing Residents

Objectives: “Tooth Smart Healthy Start” is a randomized clinical trial which aims to reduce the incidence of early childhood caries (ECC) in Boston public housing residents as part of the NIH funded Northeast Center for Research to Evaluate and Eliminate Dental Disparities. The purpose of this project was to assess public housing stakeholders' perception of the oral health needs of public housing residents and their interest in replicating “Tooth Smart Healthy Start” in other public housing sites across the nation. Methods: The target population was the 180 attendees of the 2010 meeting of the Health Care for Residents of Public Housing National Conference. A ten question survey which assessed conference attendees' beliefs about oral health and its importance to public housing residents was distributed. Data was analyzed using SAS 9.1. Descriptive statistics were calculated for each variable and results were stratified by participants' roles. Results: Thirty percent of conference attendees completed the survey. The participants consisted of residents, agency representatives, and housing authority personnel. When asked to rank health issues facing public housing residents, oral health was rated as most important (42%) or top three (16%) by residents. The agency representatives and housing authority personnel rated oral health among the top three (33% and 58% respectively) and top five (36% and 25% respectively). When participants ranked the three greatest resident health needs out of eight choices, oral health was the most common response. Majority of the participants expressed interest in replicating the “Tooth Smart Healthy Start” program at their sites. Conclusion: All stakeholder groups identified oral health as one of the greatest health needs of residents in public housing. Furthermore, if shown to reduce ECC, there is significant interest in implementing the program amongst key public housing stakeholders across the nation.

Safeguarding children and public health: midwives' responsibilities

Using a healthy settings framework, this study aims to compare and contrast how midwives working in either hospital or community settings are currently responding to the co-occurrence of domestic and child abuse; their perceived role and willingness to identify abuse; record keeping; reporting of suspected or definite cases of child abuse; and training received. Methods: A survey questionnaire was sent to 861 hospital and community midwives throughout Northern Ireland, which resulted in 488 midwives completing the questionnaire, a 57% response rate. Comparisons were made using descriptive statistics and cross-tabulation and the questionnaire was validated using exploratory factor analysis. Results: Community midwives reported receiving more training on domestic and child abuse. Although a high percentage of both hospital and community midwives acknowledged a link between domestic and child abuse, it was the community midwives who encountered more suspected and definite (p

Analysis of pharmacists attitudes toward a distance learning initiative on health screening

A questionnaire was developed to investigate pharmacists' attitudes to distance learning (DL) as a vehicle for continuing education (CE). It was included in each of a two part DL course on Health Screening. Part One was mailed to all community pharmacists in England (16,400) and returns were received from 1487. The questionnaire in Part Two was returned by 436 pharmacists. Attitude statements were scored using a five-point Likert scale. The mean response to all attitude statements was positive. Participants were significantly more satisfied than non-participants with DL in general and the DL course studied (P less than or equal to 0.05). Over 80 percent of respondents completing the course found DL to be enjoyable and more suitable than other CE methods. More females and less males than expected (based on registration statistics) requested (P less than or equal to 0.001) and completed the course (P less than or equal to 0.001). Pharmacists of all ages participated, although those recently qualified showed greater interest.

Self-reported use of natural health products:A cross-sectional telephone survey in older Ontarians

Background: The self-reported use of natural health products (NHPs) (herbal products and vitamin and mineral supplements) has increased over the past decade in Canada. Because the elderly population might have comorbidities and concurrently administered medications, there is a need to explore the perceptions and behaviors associated with NHPs in this age group. Objective: The goal of this study was to assess the use of NHPs in a cohort of older Canadian residents and the characteristics, perceptions, and behaviors associated with NHP use. Methods: Survey participants aged =60 years were randomly selected from telephone listings in the area of greater Hamilton, Ontario, Canada. Data were collected using a standardized computer-assisted telephone interview system. Self-reported data covering 7 domains were collected: (1) demographics; (2) self-reported 12-month NHP use; (3) reasons for NHP use; (4) self-reported 12-month prescription medication use; (5) expenditures on NHPs; (6) patient-reported adverse events and drug-NHP interactions; and (7) perceptions of physicians' attitudes regarding NHPs. Descriptive statistics were used to compare the characteristics of NHP users with those of nonusers and to assess the characteristics of NHP users across these 7 domains. Multivariate regression analysis was conducted to determine the demographic variables that might be associated with NHP user status. Results: Of 2528 persons identified as age =60 years, 1206 (48%) completed the telephone interview. Six hundred sixteen of these respondents (51%) reported the use of =1 NHP during the previous 12 months. On the initial univariate analysis, younger age and higher income were significantly associated with reporting NHP use (mean age, users vs nonusers, 71.1 vs 72.7 years, respectively; 95% CI, 1.02-1.06; P <0.001; income more than Can $26,000 was 28% and 22% in users and nonusers, respectively; P = 0.028). One hundred seventy of 616 users (28%) used an NHP to treat the same condition for which they were concurrently receiving a prescription medication, and 43 (25%) had not informed their physicians about their NHP use. Patients' characteristics such as sex, education, smoking status, and self-reported health status did not differ significantly between users and nonusers. In individuals who regularly spent money to purchase NHPs (n = 394), the mean cost was $20.38/mo. NHP expenditure was not significantly associated with age, sex, or income. Conclusion: Based on these findings, a substantial proportion of those Ontarians aged =60 years reported NHP use, and there is a need for greater communication with physicians to avoid potential drug-NHP interactions. © 2009 Excerpta Medica Inc. All rights reserved.

Dyslexia in higher education: Implications for maths anxiety, statistics anxiety and psychological well-being

This study examined levels of mathematics and statistics anxiety, as well as general mental health amongst undergraduate students with dyslexia (n = 28) and those without dyslexia (n = 71). Students with dyslexia had higher levels of mathematics anxiety relative to those without dyslexia, while statistics anxiety and general mental health were comparable for both reading ability groups. In terms of coping strategies, undergraduates with dyslexia tended to use planning-based strategies and seek instrumental support more frequently than those without dyslexia. Higher mathematics anxiety was associated with having a dyslexia diagnosis, as well as greater levels of worrying, denial, seeking instrumental support and less use of the positive reinterpretation coping strategy. By contrast, statistics anxiety was not predicted by dyslexia diagnosis, but was instead predicted by overall worrying and the use of denial and emotion focused coping strategies. The results suggest that disability practitioners should be aware that university students with dyslexia are at risk of high mathematics anxiety. Additionally, effective anxiety reduction strategies such as positive reframing and thought challenging would form a useful addition to the support package delivered to many students with dyslexia.

The TORCH (towards a revolution in COPD health) survival study protocol

Only long-term home oxygen therapy has been shown in randomised controlled trials to increase survival in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). There have been no trials assessing the effect of inhaled corticosteroids and long-acting bronchodilators, alone or in combination, on mortality in patients with COPD, despite their known benefit in reducing symptoms and exacerbations. The "TOwards a Revolution in COPD Health" (TORCH) survival study is aiming to determine the impact of salmeterol/fluticasone propionate (SFC) combination and the individual components on the survival of COPD patients. TORCH is a multicentre, randomised, double-blind, parallel-group, placebo-controlled study. Approximately 6,200 patients with moderate-to-severe COPD were randomly assigned to b.i.d. treatment with either SFC (50/500 microg), fluticasone propionate (500 microg), salmeterol (50 microg) or placebo for 3 yrs. The primary end-point is all-cause mortality; secondary end-points are COPD morbidity relating to rate of exacerbations and health status, using the St George's Respiratory Questionnaire. Other end-points include other mortality and exacerbation end-points, requirement for long-term oxygen therapy, and clinic lung function. Safety end-points include adverse events, with additional information on bone fractures. The first patient was recruited in September 2000 and results should be available in 2006. This paper describes the "TOwards a Revolution in COPD Health" study and explains the rationale behind it.