Inserción de Colombia en el mercado de China, hacia un tratado de libre comercio Colombia – China.

El presente trabajo busca evaluar las oportunidades y amenazas que se pueden generar a causa de la creación de un Tratado de Libre Comercio con China, identificando así el impacto que tendrían dichas alianzas sobre el desarrollo económico del país y sobre la competitividad en la región. A partir del análisis de las relaciones comerciales y particularidades de las dos economías, se tendrá en cuenta variables como la reducción del crecimiento económico de China que ha venido experimentando en los últimos años respecto al crecimiento que ha venido ganando poco a poco Colombia. Para ello, se realizó una investigación con base en información relevante de los últimos 5 años, obtenida de diferentes fuentes. Entre estas se destaca el Plan Nacional de Desarrollo (2014- 2018), estadísticas del DANE, portales de análisis económico, entrevistas, revistas indexadas, entre otras. Este compendio de fuentes permitirá evaluar el comportamiento actual de la economía en Colombia y China, así como de las perspectivas económicas de cada país para los próximos años en relación al comercio exterior. Con esto se logrará evaluar la factibilidad, así como las ventajas y desventajas que debería asumir Colombia al firmar un Tratado de Libre Comercio con su segundo socio comercial más importante.

An exploratory assessment of the potential impact of the free trade area of the americas on the andean community

A través de una simulación llevada a cabo con GTAP, este documento presenta una evaluación preliminar del impacto potencial que el Área de Libre Comercio de las Américas tendría sobre la Comunidad Andina de Naciones. Mantenido por la Universidad de Purdue, el GTAP es un modelo multiregional de equilibrio general, ampliamente usado para el análisis de temas de economía internacional. El experimento llevado a cabo tiene lugar en un ambiente de competencia perfecta y rendimientos constantes a escala y consiste en la completa eliminación de aranceles a las importaciones de bienes entre los países del Hemisferio Occidental. Los resultados muestran la presencia de modestas pero positivas ganancias netas de bienestar para la Comunidad Andina, generadas fundamentalmente por mejoras en la asignación de recursos. Movimientos desfavorables en los términos de intercambio y el efecto de la desviación de comercio con respecto a terceros países, reducen considerablemente las ganancias potenciales de bienestar. De la misma forma, la existencia de distorsiones económicas al interior de la Comunidad Andina tiene un efecto negativo sobre el bienestar. El patrón de comercio aumenta su grado de concentración en el comercio bilateral con los Estados Unidos y la remuneración real a los factores productivos presenta mejoras con la implementación de la zona de libre comercio.

Las implicaciones geopolíticas de la construcción del Canal de Nicaragua para el vecindario del Caribe Occidental (2006-2014)

El presente estudio de caso, busca explicar cuáles son las posibles implicaciones e influencia de la construcción del Proyecto del Canal de Nicaragua en la geografía, la economía y la política exterior del Caribe Occidental. Esta investigación defiende que la construcción de este canal influirá en el largo plazo en la geopolítica de esta región, debido a la posibilidad de una competencia hasta hoy inexistente en la región entre dos canales interoceánicos, que puede llegar a afectar la disponibilidad de recursos naturales de la subregión, y asimismo, fortalecer la presencia asiática en América Latina; sin embargo, las consecuencias de este canal no pueden determinarse de manera específica. Para sustentar lo anterior, se realizará una revisión del proceso de construcción del canal de Panamá y del proyecto del de Nicaragua, para establecer un estudio de prospectiva de los escenarios posibles para la región del Caribe Occidental.

Hacia la definición de una línea de codicia: aportes conceptuales y empíricos sobre América Latina y Ecuador (Tema Central)

Este ensayo propone la línea de codicia para controlar el máximo nivel de consumo ética y económicamente aceptable, sobre el cual una redistribución parcial de los ingresos individuales puede eliminar la pobreza y restituir la economía hasta sus límites sustentables. El crecimiento económico actual permite superar varias veces las necesidades fundamentales de la población, sin embargo, la enorme inequidad social impide que al menos el 40% de la humanidad satisfaga sus necesidades humanas básicas, mientras que, el consumo suntuario absorbe una parte significativa del producto mundial y el tamaño de la economía ha superado la capacidad de reposición del planeta. La línea de codicia puede ser constante en un contexto histórico nacional definido, pero es variable a escalas temporales y regionales más amplias, su nivel es menor a mayor inequidad o pobreza, y a mayor actividad económica globalmente insustentable, finalmente, aumenta conforme la economía crece dentro de límites sustentables y equitativos.

The policy mix and macroeconomic adjustment in the Euro area. CEPS Commentary, 15 October 2012

Against the background of the IMF’s latest global economic forecast, Jørgen Mortensen and Cinzia Alcidi raise questions in a new CEPS Commentary about the timing of the implementation and the effects of the three main categories of economic policy – fiscal, monetary and structural.

In the intersection of the angles of a table, there is more truth than in all the tangle of muscles: Futurism as anti-humanist critique

The recent celebrations of the centenary of the publication of the Futurist manifesto led to a renewed discussion of the ideas and artworks of the Italian artists’ group. Jacques Rancière related the Futurist ethos with the modernist project of liberating art from representation. Franco ‘Bifo’ Berardi, in his post-Futurist manifesto, also identified a historical irony at play in the emptying out of Futurism’s promise: a liberated mechanical humanity did indeed materialize, in a global economic system premised on financial servitude to the future via debt. However, these models continue to assess Futurism against an unchallenged humanism, finding it either supporting ideals of freedom and human rights despite itself, or else lacking in these areas. But Futurism is potentially more relevant than ever not in spite of its anti-humanist agenda, precisely because of it. Tom McCarthy annexes not Futurist art but Futurist writing to an emerging object oriented ontology that seeks to challenge the primacy of the human. If Futurism is to be repurposed as a critical concept, it can only do so by countering the humanist myth the liberal subject that underlies the current cultural and political hegemony of neo-liberalism.

European CMBS pricing: bond, mortgage and real estate characteristics

The recent global economic crisis is often associated with the development and pricing of mortgage-backed securities (i.e. MBSs) and underlying products (i.e. sub-prime mortgages). This work uses a rich database of MBS issues and represents the first attempt to price commercial MBSs (i.e. CMBSs) in the European market. Our results are consistent with research carried out in the US market and we find that bond-, mortgage-, real estate-related and multinational characteristics show different degrees of significance in explaining European CMBS spreads at issuance. Multiple linear regression analysis using a databank of CMBSs issued between 1997 and 2007 indicates a strong relationship with bond-related factors, followed by real estate and mortgage market conditions. We also find that multinational factors are significant, with country of issuance, collateral location and access to more liquid markets all being important in explaining the cost of secured funding for real estate companies. As floater coupon tranches tend to be riskier and exhibit higher spreads, we also estimate a model using this sub-set of data and results hold, hence reinforcing our findings. Finally, we estimate our model for both tranches A and B and find that real estate factors become relatively more important for the riskier investment products.

The investment development path in a globalised world: implications for Eastern Europe

This article summarises recent revisions to the investment development path (IDP) as postulated by Narula and Dunning (2010). The IDP provides a framework to understand the dynamic interaction between foreign direct investment (FDI) and economic development. The revisions take into account some recent changes in the global economic environment. This paper argues that studies based on the IDP should adopt a broader perspective, encompassing the idiosyncratic economic structure of countries as well as the heterogeneous nature of FDI. It is critical to understand the complex forces and interactions that determine the turning points in a country’s IDP, and to more explicitly acknowledge the role of historical, social and political circumstances in hindering or promoting FDI. We discuss some of the implications for Eastern European countries and provide some guidelines for future research.

Dynamic analysis of house price diffusion across Asian financial centres

The aim of this paper is to explore effects of macroeconomic variables on house prices and also, the lead-lag relationships of real estate markets to examine house price diffusion across Asian financial centres. The analysis is based on the Global Vector Auto-Regression (GVAR) model estimated using quarterly data for six Asian financial centres (Hong Kong, Tokyo, Seoul, Singapore, Taipei and Bangkok) from 1991Q1 to 2011Q2. The empirical results indicate that the global economic conditions play significant roles in shaping house price movements across Asian financial centres. In particular, a small open economy that heavily relies on international trade such as – Singapore and Tokyo - shows positive correlations between economy’s openness and house prices, consistent with the Balassa-Samuelson hypothesis in international trade. However, region-specific conditions do play important roles as determinants of house prices, partly due to restrictive housing policies and demand-supply imbalances, as found in Singapore and Bangkok.

Motivational factors impacting the productivity of construction master craftsmen in Kuwait

In today's global economic conditions, improving the productivity of the construction industry is becoming more pressing than ever. Several factors impact the efficiency of construction operatives, but motivation is among the most important. Since low productivity is one of the significant challenges facing the construction industry in the State of Kuwait, the objective of this case study is to identify, explore, and rank the relative importance of the factors perceived to impact the motivational level of master craftsmen involved in primary construction trades. To achieve this objective, a structured questionnaire survey comprising 23 factors, which were shortlisted based on relevant previous research on motivation, the input of local industry experts, and numerous interviews with skilled operatives, was distributed to a large number of master craftsmen. Using the “Relative Importance Index” technique, the following prominent factors are identified: (1) payment delay; (2) rework; (3) lack of a financial incentive scheme; (4) the extent of change orders during execution; (5) incompetent supervisors; (6) delays in responding to Requests For Information (RFI); (7) overcrowding and operatives interface; (8) unrealistic scheduling and performance expectation; (9) shortage of materials on site; and (10) drawings quality level. The findings can be used to provide industry practitioners with guidance for focusing, acting upon, and controlling the critical factors influencing the performance of master craftsmen, hence, assist in achieving an efficient utilization of the workforce, and a reasonable level of competitiveness and cost effective operation.

Reaching the underbanked and unbanked in subsistence markets at the nexus of the formal and informal economy

It is estimated that globally over 2 billion people do not have a bank account, with many more in the developed and developing worlds ‘under-banked’, meaning they have limited access to financial services. Reaching the unbanked and underbanked with appropriate financial services is widely recognised as critical for future global economic growth and prosperity. Drawing upon multidimensional understandings of poverty, and framed by literature on poverty pools, traps and cycles, this paper explores the use of financial products and services in the developing world and critically reflects on their potential role in poverty alleviation and wider sustainable development. Discussions are illustrated with reference to qualitative empirical research undertaken in East and Southern Africa, and a sense-making of the lived financial experiences of low income individuals, households and communities.

Neonicotinoid pesticide exposure impairs crop pollination services provided by bumblebees

Recent concern over global pollinator declines has led to considerable research on the effects of pesticides on bees1, 2, 3, 4, 5. Although pesticides are typically not encountered at lethal levels in the field, there is growing evidence indicating that exposure to field-realistic levels can have sublethal effects on bees, affecting their foraging behaviour1, 6, 7, homing ability8, 9 and reproductive success2, 5. Bees are essential for the pollination of a wide variety of crops and the majority of wild flowering plants10, 11, 12, but until now research on pesticide effects has been limited to direct effects on bees themselves and not on the pollination services they provide. Here we show the first evidence to our knowledge that pesticide exposure can reduce the pollination services bumblebees deliver to apples, a crop of global economic importance. Bumblebee colonies exposed to a neonicotinoid pesticide provided lower visitation rates to apple trees and collected pollen less often. Most importantly, these pesticide-exposed colonies produced apples containing fewer seeds, demonstrating a reduced delivery of pollination services. Our results also indicate that reduced pollination service delivery is not due to pesticide-induced changes in individual bee behaviour, but most likely due to effects at the colony level. These findings show that pesticide exposure can impair the ability of bees to provide pollination services, with important implications for both the sustained delivery of stable crop yields and the functioning of natural ecosystems.

Anticipatory governance for social-ecological resilience

Anticipation is increasingly central to urgent contemporary debates, from climate change to the global economic crisis. Anticipatory practices are coming to the forefront of political, organizational, and citizens’ society. Research into anticipation, however, has not kept pace with public demand for insights into anticipatory practices, their risks and uses. Where research exists, it is deeply fragmented. This paper seeks to identify how anticipation is defined and understood in the literature and to explore the role of anticipatory practice to address individual, social, and global challenges. We use a resilience lens to examine these questions. We illustrate how varying forms of anticipatory governance are enhanced by multi-scale regional networks and technologies and by the agency of individuals, drawing from an empirical case study on regional water governance of Mälaren, Sweden. Finally, we discuss how an anticipatory approach can inform adaptive institutions, decision making, strategy formation, and societal resilience.

Narrowing socioeconomic inequality in child stunting: the Brazilian experience, 1974-2007

Objective To assess trends in the prevalence and social distribution of child stunting in Brazil to evaluate the effect of income and basic service redistribution policies implemented in that country in the recent past. Methods The prevalence of stunting (height-for-age z score below 2 using the Child Growth Standards of the World Health Organization) among children aged less than 5 years was estimated from data collected during national household surveys carried out in Brazil in 1974-75 (n = 34 409), 1989 (n = 7374), 1996 (n = 4149) and 2006-07 (n = 4414). Absolute and relative socioeconomic inequality in stunting was measured by means of the slope index and the concentration index of inequality, respectively. Findings Over a 33-year period, we documented a steady decline in the national prevalence of stunting from 37.1% to 7.1%. Prevalence dropped from 59.0% to 11.2% in the poorest quintile and from 12.1% to 3.3% among the wealthiest quintile. The decline was particularly steep in the last 10 years of the period (1996 to 2007), when the gaps between poor and wealthy families with children under 5 were also reduced in terms of purchasing power; access to education, health care and water and sanitation services; and reproductive health indicators. Conclusion In Brazil, socioeconomic development coupled with equity-oriented public policies have been accompanied by marked improvements in living conditions and a substantial decline in child undernutrition, as well as a reduction of the gap in nutritional status between children in the highest and lowest socioeconomic quintiles. Future studies will show whether these gains will be maintained under the current global economic crisis.

Is neoliberalism a Liberalism, or a strange kind of bird? On Hayek and our discontents

This paper examines the theoretical ideas of Friedrich von Hayek, arguably the key progenitor of the global economic orthodoxy of the past two decades. It assesses Hayek's thought as he presents it: namely as a form of liberalism. Section I argues that Hayek's thought, if liberal, is hostile to participatory democracy. Section II then argues the more radical thesis that neoliberalism is also in truth an illiberal doctrine. Founded not in any social contract doctrine, but a form of constructivism, neoliberal thought at its base accepts the paradoxical need to "discipline subjects for freedom", however this might contravene peoples' natural, social inclinations. The argument is framed by reference to Aristophanes' great comedy, The Birds, whose off shore borderless empire ironically prefigures the dream of neoliberal social engineers, and their corporate supporters.