Determinants of local government pension funding: Empirical evidence from Florida

The financial community is well aware that continued underfunding of state and local government pension plans poses many public policy and fiduciary management concerns. However, a well-defined theoretical rationale has not been developed to explain why and how public sector pension plans underfund. This study uses three methods: a survey of national pension experts, an incomplete covariance panel method, and field interviews.^ A survey of national public sector pension experts was conducted to provide a conceptual framework by which underfunding could be evaluated. Experts suggest that plan design, fiscal stress, and political culture factors impact underfunding. However, experts do not agree with previous research findings that unions actively pursue underfunding to secure current wage increases.^ Within the conceptual framework and determinants identified by experts, several empirical regularities are documented for the first time. Analysis of 173 local government pension plans, observed from 1987 to 1992, was conducted. Findings indicate that underfunding occurs in plans that have lower retirement ages, increased costs due to benefit enhancements, when the sponsor faces current year operating deficits, or when a local government relies heavily on inelastic revenue sources. Results also suggest that elected officials artificially inflate interest rate assumptions to reduce current pension costs, consequently shifting these costs to future generations. In concurrence with some experts there is no data to support the assumption that highly unionized employees secure more funding than less unionized employees.^ Empirical results provide satisfactory but not overwhelming statistical power, and only minor predictive capacity. To further explore why underfunding occurs, field interviews were carried out with 62 local government officials. Practitioners indicated that perceived fiscal stress, the willingness of policymakers to advance funding, bargaining strategies used by union officials, apathy by employees and retirees, pension board composition, and the level of influence by internal pension experts has an impact on funding outcomes.^ A pension funding process model was posited by triangulating the expert survey, empirical findings, and field survey results. The funding process model should help shape and refine our theoretical knowledge of state and local government pension underfunding in the future. ^

A comprehensive and integrative reconstruction of evolutionary history for Anomura (Crustacea: Decapoda)

Background The infraorder Anomura has long captivated the attention of evolutionary biologists due to its impressive morphological diversity and ecological adaptations. To date, 2500 extant species have been described but phylogenetic relationships at high taxonomic levels remain unresolved. Here, we reconstruct the evolutionary history—phylogeny, divergence times, character evolution and diversification—of this speciose clade. For this purpose, we sequenced two mitochondrial (16S and 12S) and three nuclear (H3, 18S and 28S) markers for 19 of the 20 extant families, using traditional Sanger and next-generation 454 sequencing methods. Molecular data were combined with 156 morphological characters in order to estimate the largest anomuran phylogeny to date. The anomuran fossil record allowed us to incorporate 31 fossils for divergence time analyses. Results Our best phylogenetic hypothesis (morphological + molecular data) supports most anomuran superfamilies and families as monophyletic. However, three families and eleven genera are recovered as para- and polyphyletic. Divergence time analysis dates the origin of Anomura to the Late Permian ~259 (224–296) MYA with many of the present day families radiating during the Jurassic and Early Cretaceous. Ancestral state reconstruction suggests that carcinization occurred independently 3 times within the group. The invasion of freshwater and terrestrial environments both occurred between the Late Cretaceous and Tertiary. Diversification analyses found the speciation rate to be low across Anomura, and we identify 2 major changes in the tempo of diversification; the most significant at the base of a clade that includes the squat-lobster family Chirostylidae. Conclusions Our findings are compared against current classifications and previous hypotheses of anomuran relationships. Many families and genera appear to be poly- or paraphyletic suggesting a need for further taxonomic revisions at these levels. A divergence time analysis provides key insights into the origins of major lineages and events and the timing of morphological (body form) and ecological (habitat) transitions. Living anomuran biodiversity is the product of 2 major changes in the tempo of diversification; our initial insights suggest that the acquisition of a crab-like form did not act as a key innovation.

The role of dietary breadth in national bumblebee (Bombus) declines: Simple correlation?

Bumblebee species declines have been reported in Europe, North America and Asia. Loss of suitable habitat to agricultural intensification is considered to be the main cause of declines in Europe. Differential impacts on species have been recorded but insufficient knowledge of species ecology means that effective conservation management prescriptions cannot be put into place with certainty. Dietary specialisation, specifically on flowers of Fabaceae, has been hypothesised as driving differential declines but the reliability of previous studies has been questioned. Here we present a three-year study of the foraging behaviour of two UK Biodiversity Action Plan bumblebee species. For the first time, analysis of nectar and pollen foraging was performed on sites where nationally rare UK bumblebees were as abundant as more nationally ubiquitous species. Results indicated that the nationally rare Bombus sylvarum collected the majority of its pollen from flowers of Odontites verna and had a significantly narrower mean nectar dietary breadth than ecologically similar species Bombus humilis and Bombus pascuorum (p = 0.004 and 0.008 respectively). In contrast, the dietary breadth of the nationally rare B. humilis was similar to the more nationally ubiquitous species B. pascuorum and Bombus lapidarius. Moreover, B. lapidarius was recorded as having the narrowest pollen dietary breadth, collected pollen from the least number of floral taxa and was the most specialised of the Bombus species on pollen of Fabaceae. Patterns of dietary specialization were inconsistent with national declines and results highlighted a need for further detailed investigation into the factors contributing to differential declines.

Indoor environment and the impact on the health of pre-exisiting asthmatics at work: the development of a risk management framework

This thesis examines the spatial and temporal variation in nitrogen dioxide (NO2) levels in Guernsey and the impacts on pre-existing asthmatics. Whilst air quality in Guernsey is generally good, the levels of NO2 exceed UK standards in several locations. The evidence indicates that people suffering from asthma have exacerbation of their symptoms if exposed to elevated levels of air pollutants including NO2, although this research has never been carried out in Guernsey before. In addition, exposure assessment of individuals is rarely carried out and research in this area is limited due to the complexity of undertaking such a study, which will include a combination of exposures in the home, the workplace and ambient exposures, which vary depending on the individual daily experience. For the first time in Guernsey, this research has examined NO2 levels in correlation with asthma patient admissions to hospital, assessment of NO2 exposures in typical homes and typical workplaces in Guernsey. The data showed a temporal correlation between NO2 levels and the number of hospital admissions and the trend from 2008-2012 was upwards. Statistical analysis of the data did not show a significant linear correlation due to the small size of the data sets. Exposure assessment of individuals showed a spatial variation in exposures in Guernsey and assessment in indoor environments showed that real-time analysis of NO2 levels needs to be undertaken if indoor micro environments for NO2 are the be assessed adequately. There was temporal and spatial variation in NO2 concentrations measured using diffusion tubes, which provide a monthly mean value, and analysers measuring NO2 concentrations in real time. The research shows that building layout and design are important factors for good air flow and ventilation and the dispersion of NO2 indoors. Environmental Health Officers have statutory responsibilities for ambient air quality, hygiene of buildings and workplace environments and this role needs to be co-ordinated with healthcare professionals to improve health outcomes for asthmatics. The outcome of the thesis was the development of a risk management framework for pre-existing asthmatics at work for use by regulators of workplaces and an information leaflet to assist in improving health outcomes for asthmatics in Guernsey.

Exploration of the dendritic cell algorithm with the duration calculus

As one of the newest members in Articial Immune Systems (AIS), the Dendritic Cell Algorithm (DCA) has been applied to a range of problems. These applications mainly belong to the eld of anomaly detection. However, real-time detection, a new challenge to anomaly detection, requires improvement on the real-time capability of the DCA. To assess such capability, formal methods in the research of real-time systems can be employed. The ndings of the assessment can provide guideline for the future development of the algorithm. Therefore, in this paper we use an interval logic based method, named the Duration Calcu- lus (DC), to specify a simplied single-cell model of the DCA. Based on the DC specications with further induction, we nd that each individual cell in the DCA can perform its function as a detector in real-time. Since the DCA can be seen as many such cells operating in parallel, it is potentially capable of performing real-time detection. However, the analysis process of the standard DCA constricts its real-time capability. As a result, we conclude that the analysis process of the standard DCA should be replaced by a real-time analysis component, which can perform periodic analysis for the purpose of real-time detection.

Use of fluorescence lifetime imaging microscopy (FLIM) as a timer of cell cycle S phase

Incorporation of thymidine analogues in replicating DNA, coupled with antibody and fluorophore staining, allows analysis of cell proliferation, but is currently limited to monolayer cultures, fixed cells and end-point assays. We describe a simple microscopy imaging method for live real-time analysis of cell proliferation, S phase progression over several division cycles, effects of anti-proliferative drugs and other applications. It is based on the prominent (~ 1.7-fold) quenching of fluorescence lifetime of a common cell-permeable nuclear stain, Hoechst 33342 upon the incorporation of 5-bromo-2’-deoxyuridine (BrdU) in genomic DNA and detection by fluorescence lifetime imaging microscopy (FLIM). We show that quantitative and accurate FLIM technique allows high-content, multi-parametric dynamic analyses, far superior to the intensity-based imaging. We demonstrate its uses with monolayer cell cultures, complex 3D tissue models of tumor cell spheroids and intestinal organoids, and in physiological study with metformin treatment.

Prevalencia e incidencia de cáncer en habitantes de Sibaté, y georeferenciación de casos 2010-2014

Introducción: El Cáncer es prevenible en algunos casos, si se evita la exposición a sustancias cancerígenas en el medio ambiente. En Colombia, Cundinamarca es uno de los departamentos con mayores incrementos en la tasa de mortalidad y en el municipio de Sibaté, habitantes han manifestado preocupación por el incremento de la enfermedad. En el campo de la salud ambiental mundial, la georreferenciación aplicada al estudio de fenómenos en salud, ha tenido éxito con resultados válidos. El estudio propuso usar herramientas de información geográfica, para generar análisis de tiempo y espacio que hicieran visible el comportamiento del cáncer en Sibaté y sustentaran hipótesis de influencias ambientales sobre concentraciones de casos. Objetivo: Obtener incidencia y prevalencia de casos de cáncer en habitantes de Sibaté y georreferenciar los casos en un periodo de 5 años, con base en indagación de registros. Metodología: Estudio exploratorio descriptivo de corte transversal,sobre todos los diagnósticos de cáncer entre los años 2010 a 2014, encontrados en los archivos de la Secretaria de Salud municipal. Se incluyeron unicamente quienes tuvieron residencia permanente en el municipio y fueron diagnosticados con cáncer entre los años de 2010 a 2104. Sobre cada caso se obtuvo género, edad, estrato socioeconómico, nivel académico, ocupación y estado civil. Para el análisis de tiempo se usó la fecha de diagnóstico y para el análisis de espacio, la dirección de residencia, tipo de cáncer y coordenada geográfica. Se generaron coordenadas geográficas con un equipo GPS Garmin y se crearon mapas con los puntos de la ubicación de las viviendas de los pacientes. Se proceso la información, con Epi Info 7 Resultados: Se encontraron 107 casos de cáncer registrados en la Secretaria de Salud de Sibaté, 66 mujeres, 41 hombres. Sin división de género, el 30.93% de la población presento cáncer del sistema reproductor, el 18,56% digestivo y el 17,53% tegumentario. Se presentaron 2 grandes casos de agrupaciones espaciales en el territorio estudiado, una en el Barrio Pablo Neruda con 12 (21,05%) casos y en el casco Urbano de Sibaté con 38 (66,67%) casos. Conclusión: Se corroboro que el análisis geográfico con variables espacio temporales y de exposición, puede ser la herramienta para generar hipótesis sobre asociaciones de casos de cáncer con factores ambientales.

Survival Analysis of Patients with Heart Failure: Implications of Time-Varying Regression Effects in Modeling Mortality

Background: Several models have been designed to predict survival of patients with heart failure. These, while available and widely used for both stratifying and deciding upon different treatment options on the individual level, have several limitations. Specifically, some clinical variables that may influence prognosis may have an influence that change over time. Statistical models that include such characteristic may help in evaluating prognosis. The aim of the present study was to analyze and quantify the impact of modeling heart failure survival allowing for covariates with time-varying effects known to be independent predictors of overall mortality in this clinical setting. Methodology: Survival data from an inception cohort of five hundred patients diagnosed with heart failure functional class III and IV between 2002 and 2004 and followed-up to 2006 were analyzed by using the proportional hazards Cox model and variations of the Cox's model and also of the Aalen's additive model. Principal Findings: One-hundred and eighty eight (188) patients died during follow-up. For patients under study, age, serum sodium, hemoglobin, serum creatinine, and left ventricular ejection fraction were significantly associated with mortality. Evidence of time-varying effect was suggested for the last three. Both high hemoglobin and high LV ejection fraction were associated with a reduced risk of dying with a stronger initial effect. High creatinine, associated with an increased risk of dying, also presented an initial stronger effect. The impact of age and sodium were constant over time. Conclusions: The current study points to the importance of evaluating covariates with time-varying effects in heart failure models. The analysis performed suggests that variations of Cox and Aalen models constitute a valuable tool for identifying these variables. The implementation of covariates with time-varying effects into heart failure prognostication models may reduce bias and increase the specificity of such models.

Analysis of recurrent failure times: A time-dependent Yule process approach

Analysis of recurrent events has been widely discussed in medical, health services, insurance, and engineering areas in recent years. This research proposes to use a nonhomogeneous Yule process with the proportional intensity assumption to model the hazard function on recurrent events data and the associated risk factors. This method assumes that repeated events occur for each individual, with given covariates, according to a nonhomogeneous Yule process with intensity function λx(t) = λ 0(t) · exp( x′β). One of the advantages of using a non-homogeneous Yule process for recurrent events is that it assumes that the recurrent rate is proportional to the number of events that occur up to time t. Maximum likelihood estimation is used to provide estimates of the parameters in the model, and a generalized scoring iterative procedure is applied in numerical computation. ^ Model comparisons between the proposed method and other existing recurrent models are addressed by simulation. One example concerning recurrent myocardial infarction events compared between two distinct populations, Mexican-American and Non-Hispanic Whites in the Corpus Christi Heart Project is examined. ^

Failure analysis of low velocity impact on thin composite laminates: Experimental and numerical approaches

The dynamic behavior of composite laminates is very complex because there are many concurrent phenomena during composite laminate failure under impact load. Fiber breakage, delaminations, matrix cracking, plastic deformations due to contact and large displacements are some effects which should be considered when a structure made from composite material is impacted by a foreign object. Thus, an investigation of the low velocity impact on laminated composite thin disks of epoxy resin reinforced by carbon fiber is presented. The influence of stacking sequence and energy impact was investigated using load-time histories, displacement-time histories and energy-time histories as well as images from NDE. Indentation tests results were compared to dynamic results, verifying the inertia effects when thin composite laminate was impacted by foreign object with low velocity. Finite element analysis (FEA) was developed, using Hill`s model and material models implemented by UMAT (User Material Subroutine) into software ABAQUS (TM), in order to simulate the failure mechanisms under indentation tests. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Survival Analysis Employed in Predicting Corporate Failure: A Forecasting Model Proposal

In face of the current economic and financial environment, predicting corporate bankruptcy is arguably a phenomenon of increasing interest to investors, creditors, borrowing firms, and governments alike. Within the strand of literature focused on bankruptcy forecasting we can find diverse types of research employing a wide variety of techniques, but only a few researchers have used survival analysis for the examination of this issue. We propose a model for the prediction of corporate bankruptcy based on survival analysis, a technique which stands on its own merits. In this research, the hazard rate is the probability of ‘‘bankruptcy’’ as of time t, conditional upon having survived until time t. Many hazard models are applied in a context where the running of time naturally affects the hazard rate. The model employed in this paper uses the time of survival or the hazard risk as dependent variable, considering the unsuccessful companies as censured observations.

Aplicação do Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) na demolição, movimento de terras e execução da estrutura em edifícios

Mestrado em Engenharia Civil - Ramo Tecnologia e gestão das Construções

Towards realistic core-failure-resilient scheduling and analysis

Presented at IEEE Real-Time Systems Symposium (RTSS 2015). 1 to 4, Dec, 2015. San Antonio, U.S.A..

Towards realistic core-failure-resilient scheduling and analysis

Presented at IEEE Real-Time Systems Symposium (RTSS 2015). 1 to 4, Dec, 2015. San Antonio, U.S.A..

Effects of bisoprolol fumarate on left ventricular size, function, and exercise capacity in patients with heart failure: analysis with magnetic resonance myocardial tagging.

BACKGROUND: Recent data suggest that beta-blockers can be beneficial in subgroups of patients with chronic heart failure (CHF). For metoprolol and carvedilol, an increase in ejection fraction has been shown and favorable effects on the myocardial remodeling process have been reported in some studies. We examined the effects of bisoprolol fumarate on exercise capacity and left ventricular volume with magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and applied a novel high-resolution MRI tagging technique to determine myocardial rotation and relaxation velocity. METHODS: Twenty-eight patients (mean age, 57 +/- 11 years; mean ejection fraction, 26 +/- 6%) were randomized to bisoprolol fumarate (n = 13) or to placebo therapy (n = 15). The dosage of the drugs was titrated to match that of the the Cardiac Insufficiency Bisoprolol Study protocol. Hemodynamic and gas exchange responses to exercise, MRI measurements of left ventricular end-systolic and end-diastolic volumes and ejection fraction, and left ventricular rotation and relaxation velocities were measured before the administration of the drug and 6 and 12 months later. RESULTS: After 1 year, heart rate was reduced in the bisoprolol fumarate group both at rest (81 +/- 12 before therapy versus 61 +/- 11 after therapy; P <.01) and peak exercise (144 +/- 20 before therapy versus 127 +/- 17 after therapy; P <.01), which indicated a reduction in sympathetic drive. No differences were observed in heart rate responses in the placebo group. No differences were observed within or between groups in peak oxygen uptake, although work rate achieved was higher (117.9 +/- 36 watts versus 146.1 +/- 33 watts; P <.05) and exercise time tended to be higher (9.1 +/- 1.7 minutes versus 11.4 +/- 2.8 minutes; P =.06) in the bisoprolol fumarate group. A trend for a reduction in left ventricular end-diastolic volume (-54 mL) and left ventricular end-systolic volume (-62 mL) in the bisoprolol fumarate group occurred after 1 year. Ejection fraction was higher in the bisoprolol fumarate group (25.0 +/- 7 versus 36.2 +/- 9%; P <.05), and the placebo group remained unchanged. Most changes in volume and ejection fraction occurred during the latter 6 months of treatment. With myocardial tagging, insignificant reductions in left ventricular rotation velocity were observed in both groups, whereas relaxation velocity was reduced only after bisoprolol fumarate therapy (by 39%; P <.05). CONCLUSION: One year of bisoprolol fumarate therapy resulted in an improvement in exercise capacity, showed trends for reductions in end-diastolic and end-systolic volumes, increased ejection fraction, and significantly reduced relaxation velocity. Although these results generally confirm the beneficial effects of beta-blockade in patients with chronic heart failure, they show differential effects on systolic and diastolic function.