The impact of Medicare, Medicaid and Schip Extension Act of 2007 (MMSEA) on the long term acute care hospitals

The Long Term Acute Care Hospitals (LTACH), which serve medically complex patients, have grown tremendously in recent years, by expanding the number of Medicare patient admissions and thus increasing Medicare expenditures (Stark 2004). In an attempt to mitigate the rapid growth of the LTACHs and reduce related Medicare expenditures, Congress enacted Section 114 of P.L. 110-173 (§114) of the Medicare, Medicaid and SCHIP Extension Act (MMSEA) in December 29, 2007 to regulate the LTCAHs industry. MMSEA increased the medical necessity reviews for Medicare admissions, imposed a moratorium on new LTCAHs, and allowed the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) to recoup Medicare overpayments for unnecessary admissions. ^ This study examines whether MMSEA impacted LTACH admissions, operating margins and efficiency. These objectives were analyzed by comparing LTACH data for 2008 (post MMSEA) and data for 2006-2007 (pre-MMSEA). Secondary data were utilized from the American Hospital Association (AHA) database and the American Hospital Directory (AHD).^ This is a longitudinal retrospective study with a total sample of 55 LTACHs, selected from 396 LTACHs facilities that were fully operational during the study period of 2006-2008. The results of the research found no statistically significant change in total Medicare admissions; instead there was a small but not statistically significant reduction of 5% in Medicare admissions for 2008 in comparison to those for 2006. A statistically significant decrease in mean operating margins was confirmed between the years 2006 and 2008. The LTACHs' Technical Efficiency (TE), as computed by Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA), showed significant decrease in efficiency over the same period. Thirteen of the 55 LTACHs in the sample (24%) in 2006 were calculated as “efficient” utilizing the DEA analysis. This dropped to 13% (7/55) in 2008. Longitudinally, the decrease in efficiency using the DEA extension technique (Malmquist Index or MI) indicated a deterioration of 10% in efficiency over the same period. Interestingly, however, when the sample was stratified into high efficient versus low efficient subgroups (approximately 25% in each group), a comparison of the MIs suggested a significant improvement in Efficiency Change (EC) for the least efficient (MI 0.92022) and reduction in efficiency for the most efficient LTACHs (MI = 1.38761) over same period. While a reduction in efficiency for the most efficient is unexpected, it is not particularly surprising, since efficiency measure can vary over time. An improvement in efficiency, however, for the least efficient should be expected as those LTACHs begin to manage expenses (and controllable resources) more carefully to offset the payment/reimbursement pressures on their margins from MMSEA.^

MEASURING THE EFFECT OF ILLNESS ON THE EXPECTED REMAINING SERVICE TIME FOR THE ACTIVE DUTY ARMY: A LIFE TABLE APPROACH

A life table methodology was developed which estimates the expected remaining Army service time and the expected remaining Army sick time by years of service for the United States Army population. A measure of illness impact was defined as the ratio of expected remaining Army sick time to the expected remaining Army service time. The variances of the resulting estimators were developed on the basis of current data. The theory of partial and complete competing risks was considered for each type of decrement (death, administrative separation, and medical separation) and for the causes of sick time.^ The methodology was applied to world-wide U.S. Army data for calendar year 1978. A total of 669,493 enlisted personnel and 97,704 officers were reported on active duty as of 30 September 1978. During calendar year 1978, the Army Medical Department reported 114,647 inpatient discharges and 1,767,146 sick days. Although the methodology is completely general with respect to the definition of sick time, only sick time associated with an inpatient episode was considered in this study.^ Since the temporal measure was years of Army service, an age-adjusting process was applied to the life tables for comparative purposes. Analyses were conducted by rank (enlisted and officer), race and sex, and were based on the ratio of expected remaining Army sick time to expected remaining Army service time. Seventeen major diagnostic groups, classified by the Eighth Revision, International Classification of Diseases, Adapted for Use In The United States, were ranked according to their cumulative (across years of service) contribution to expected remaining sick time.^ The study results indicated that enlisted personnel tend to have more expected hospital-associated sick time relative to their expected Army service time than officers. Non-white officers generally have more expected sick time relative to their expected Army service time than white officers. This racial differential was not supported within the enlisted population. Females tend to have more expected sick time relative to their expected Army service time than males. This tendency remained after diagnostic groups 580-629 (Genitourinary System) and 630-678 (Pregnancy and Childbirth) were removed. Problems associated with the circulatory system, digestive system and musculoskeletal system were among the three leading causes of cumulative sick time across years of service. ^

AN INVESTIGATION OF THE IMPACT OF CHILDREN WITH BIRTH DEFECTS ON STRESS IN THEIR FAMILIES

A child with a birth defect places physical, financial and emotional stress upon the family. The purpose of this study was to assess the impact of a mildly handicapped child on the family's coping abilities.^ Two groups, 101 mothers of children with birth defects and 107 mothers of intact children, completed the Holroyd Questionnaire on Resources and Stress and the Luborsky Social Assets Scale. From these groups, 86 pairs were matched on four factors: the age (two to eight years) and sex of the study child and the mother's education and marital status.^ The children with birth defects had completed the diagnostic evaluation at the Meyer Center for Developmental Pediatrics, Texas Children's Hospital. Children with severe defects were excluded. The mean I.Q of the group was 88, s.d. 17; 17 children were mildly retarded and 35 had an I.Q. of 100 or above; areas of dysfunction included motor abnormalities, behavior disturbance, speech problems, and sensory impairments.^ The expected direction and statistically significant differences were obtained from the data for the matched pairs on the Q.R.S. scales. The mothers of children with a birth defect reported poor health, a negative attitude toward the child, being over-protective, financial problems and feeling a lack of social support and family integration. They perceived the child as socially obtrusive, limited as to occupational opportunities, and as having a difficult personality.^ The functioning levels of the handicapped children contributed to the respondent's problems. The child with behavior and speech problems but adequate intelligence was a situation which resulted in a poor health/mood of the mother. The mother's pessimism was related to the child's low intelligence.^ The social assets of the respondents with intact children were significantly higher than those of respondents of handicapped children. There was no relationship between the total social assets score and the scores on the Q.R.S. for mothers of handicapped children. These mothers did report poorer physical conditions, more smoking, and quarreling of their parents as they grew up. ^

Assessing the impact of electronic health record technology adoption on hospital labor efficiency

Information technology (IT) in the hospital organization is fast becoming a key asset, particularly in light of recent reform legislation in the United States calling for expanding the role of IT in our health care system. Future payment reductions to hospitals included in current health reform are based on expected improvements in hospital operating efficiency. Since over half of hospital expenses are for labor, improved efficiency in use of labor resources can be critical in meeting this challenge. Policy makers have touted the value of IT investments to improve efficiency in response to payment reductions. ^ This study was the first to directly examine the relationship between electronic health record (EHR) technology and staffing efficiency in hospitals. As the hospital has a myriad of outputs for inpatient and outpatient care, efficiency was measured using an industry standard performance metric – full time equivalent employees per adjusted occupied bed (FTE/AOB). Three hypotheses were tested in this study.^ To operationalize EHR technology adoption, we developed three constructs to model adoption, each of which was tested by separate hypotheses. The first hypothesis that a larger number of EHR applications used by a hospital would be associated with greater staffing efficiency (or lower values of FTE/AOB) was not accepted. Association between staffing efficiency and specific EHR applications was the second hypothesis tested and accepted with some applications showing significant impacts on observed values for FTE/AOB. Finally, the hypothesis that the longer an EHR application was used in a hospital would be associated with greater labor efficiency was not accepted as the model showed few statistically significant relationships to FTE/AOB performance. Generally, there does not appear a strong relationship between EHR usage and improved labor efficiency in hospitals.^ While returns on investment from EHR usage may not come from labor efficiencies, they may be better sought using measures of quality, contribution to an efficient and effective local health care system, and improved customer satisfaction through greater patient throughput.^

The impact of a cooking and gardening summer camp experience on the fruit and vegetable consumption of elementary school-aged children

Childhood obesity is a significant public health problem. Over 15 percent of children in the United States are obese, and about 25 percent of children in Texas are overweight (CDC NHANES). Furthermore, about 30 percent of elementary school aged children in Harris County, Texas are overweight or obese (Children at Risk Institute 2010). In addition to actions such as increasing physical activity, decreasing television watching and video game time, decreasing snacking on low nutrient calorie dense foods and sugar sweetened beverages, children need to consume more fruits and vegetables. According to the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) from 2002, about 26 percent of U.S. children are meeting the recommendations for daily fruit intake and about 16 percent are meeting the recommendations for daily vegetable intake (CDC NHANES). In 2004, the average total intake of vegetables was 0.9 cups per day and 1.1 cups of fruit per day by children ages four to nine years old in the U.S. (CDC NHANES). Not only do children need effective nutrition education to learn about fruits and vegetables, they also need access and repeated exposure to fruits and vegetables (Anderson 2009, Briefel 2009). Nutrition education interventions that provide a structured, hands-on curriculum such as school gardens have produced significant changes in child fruit and vegetable intake (Blair 2009, McAleese 2007). To prevent childhood obesity from continuing into adolescence and adulthood, effective nutrition education interventions need to be implemented immediately and for the long-term. However, research has shown short-term nutrition education interventions such as summer camps to be effective for significant changes in child fruit and vegetable intake, preferences, and knowledge (Heim 2009). ^ A four week summer camp based on cooking and gardening was implemented at 6 Multi-Service centers in a large, urban city. The participants included children ranging in age from 7 to 14 years old (n=64). The purpose of the camp was to introduce children to their food from the seed to the plate through the utilization of gardening and culinary exercises. The summer camp activities were aimed at increasing the children's exposure, willingness to try, preferences, knowledge, and intake of fruits and vegetables. A survey was given on the first day of camp and again on the last day of camp that measured the pre- and post differences in knowledge, intake, willingness to try, and preferences of fruits and vegetables. The present study examined the short-term effectiveness of a cooking and garden-based nutrition education program on the knowledge, willingness, preferences, and intake among children aged 8 to 13 years old (n=40). The final sample of participants (n=40) was controlled for those who completed pre- and post-test surveys and who were in or above the third grade level. Results showed a statistically significant increase in the reported intake of vegetables and preferences for vegetables, specifically green beans, and fruits. There was also a significant increase in preferences for fruits among boys and participants ages 11 to 13 years. The results showed a change in the expected direction of willingness to try, preferences for vegetables, and intake of fruit, however these were not statistically significant. Interestingly, the results also showed a decrease in the intake of low nutrient calorie dense foods such as sweets and candy.^

Exploring the Impact of Decreased AMPK Pathway Activity on Brain Injury Outcome

Each year, 150 million people sustain a Traumatic Brain Injury (TBI). TBI results in life-long cognitive impairments for many survivors. One observed pathological alteration following TBI are changes in glucose metabolism. Altered glucose uptake occurs in the periphery as well as in the nervous system, with an acute increase in glucose uptake, followed by a prolonged metabolic suppression. Chronic, persistent suppression of brain glucose uptake occurs in TBI patients experiencing memory loss. Abberant post-injury activation of energy-sensing signaling cascades could result in perturbed cellular metabolism. AMP-activated kinase (AMPK) is a kinase that senses low ATP levels, and promotes efficient cell energy usage. AMPK promotes energy production through increasing glucose uptake via glucose transporter 4 (GLUT4). When AMPK is activated, it phosphorylates Akt Substrate of 160 kDa (AS160), a Rab GTPase activating protein that controls Glut4 translocation. Additionally, AMPK negatively regulates energy-consumption by inhibiting protein synthesis via the mechanistic Target of Rapamycin (mTOR) pathway. Given that metabolic suppression has been observed post-injury, we hypothesized that activity of the AMPK pathway is transiently decreased. As AMPK activation increases energy efficiency of the cell, we proposed that increasing AMPK activity to combat the post-injury energy crisis would improve cognitive outcome. Additionally, we expected that inhibiting AMPK targets would be detrimental. We first investigated the role of an existing state of hyperglycemia on TBI outcome, as hyperglycemia correlates with increased mortality and decreased cognitive outcome in clinical studies. Inducing hyperglycemia had no effect on outcome; however, we discovered that AMPK and AS160 phosphorylation were altered post-injury. We conducted vii work to characterize this period of AMPK suppression and found that AMPK phosphorylation was significantly decreased in the hippocampus and cortex between 24 hours and 3 days post-injury, and phosphorylation of its downstream targets was consistently altered. Based on this period of observed decreased AMPK activity, we administered an AMPK activator post-injury, and this improved cognitive outcome. Finally, to examine whether AMPK-regulated target Glut4 is involved in post-injury glucose metabolism, we applied an inhibitor and found this treatment impaired post-injury cognitive function. This work is significant, as AMPK activation may represent a new TBI therapeutic target.

The impact of ocean acidification and warming on the skeletal mechanical properties of the sea urchin Paracentrotus lividus from laboratory and field observations

Increased atmospheric CO2 concentration is leading to changes in the carbonate chemistry and the temperature of the ocean. The impact of these processes on marine organisms will depend on their ability to cope with those changes, particularly the maintenance of calcium carbonate structures. Both a laboratory experiment (long-term exposure to decreased pH and increased temperature) and collections of individuals from natural environments characterized by low pH levels (individuals from intertidal pools and around a CO2 seep) were here coupled to comprehensively study the impact of near-future conditions of pH and temperature on the mechanical properties of the skeleton of the euechinoid sea urchin Paracentrotus lividus. To assess skeletal mechanical properties, we characterized the fracture force, Young's modulus, second moment of area, material nanohardness, and specific Young's modulus of sea urchin test plates. None of these parameters were significantly affected by low pH and/or increased temperature in the laboratory experiment and by low pH only in the individuals chronically exposed to lowered pH from the CO2 seeps. In tidal pools, the fracture force was higher and the Young's modulus lower in ambital plates of individuals from the rock pool characterized by the largest pH variations but also a dominance of calcifying algae, which might explain some of the variation. Thus, decreases of pH to levels expected for 2100 did not directly alter the mechanical properties of the test of P. lividus. Since the maintenance of test integrity is a question of survival for sea urchins and since weakened tests would increase the sea urchins' risk of predation, our findings indicate that the decreasing seawater pH and increasing seawater temperature expected for the end of the century should not represent an immediate threat to sea urchins vulnerability

Seaweed fails to prevent ocean acidification impact on foraminifera along a shallow-water CO2 gradient

Ocean acidification causes biodiversity loss, alters ecosystems, and may impact food security, as shells of small organisms dissolve easily in corrosive waters. There is a suggestion that photosynthetic organisms could mitigate ocean acidification on a local scale, through seagrass protection or seaweed cultivation, as net ecosystem organic production raises the saturation state of calcium carbonate making seawater less corrosive. Here, we used a natural gradient in calcium carbonate saturation, caused by shallow-water CO2 seeps in the Mediterranean Sea, to assess whether seaweed that is resistant to acidification (Padina pavonica) could prevent adverse effects of acidification on epiphytic foraminifera. We found a reduction in the number of species of foraminifera as calcium carbonate saturation state fell and that the assemblage shifted from one dominated by calcareous species at reference sites (pH 8.19) to one dominated by agglutinated foraminifera at elevated levels of CO2 (pH 7.71). It is expected that ocean acidification will result in changes in foraminiferal assemblage composition and agglutinated forms may become more prevalent. Although Padina did not prevent adverse effects of ocean acidification, high biomass stands of seagrass or seaweed farms might be more successful in protecting epiphytic foraminifera.

Could the acid-base status of Antarctic sea urchins indicate a better-than-expected resilience to near-future ocean acidification?

Increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration alters the chemistry of the oceans towards more acidic conditions. Polar oceans are particularly affected due to their low temperature, low carbonate content and mixing patterns, for instance upwellings. Calcifying organisms are expected to be highly impacted by the decrease in the oceans' pH and carbonate ions concentration. In particular, sea urchins, members of the phylum Echinodermata, are hypothesized to be at risk due to their high-magnesium calcite skeleton. However, tolerance to ocean acidification in metazoans is first linked to acid-base regulation capacities of the extracellular fluids. No information on this is available to date for Antarctic echinoderms and inference from temperate and tropical studies needs support. In this study, we investigated the acid-base status of 9 species of sea urchins (3 cidaroids, 2 regular euechinoids and 4 irregular echinoids). It appears that Antarctic regular euechinoids seem equipped with similar acid-base regulation systems as tropical and temperate regular euechinoids but could rely on more passive ion transfer systems, minimizing energy requirements. Cidaroids have an acid-base status similar to that of tropical cidaroids. Therefore Antarctic cidaroids will most probably not be affected by decreasing seawater pH, the pH drop linked to ocean acidification being negligible in comparison of the naturally low pH of the coelomic fluid. Irregular echinoids might not suffer from reduced seawater pH if acidosis of the coelomic fluid pH does not occur but more data on their acid-base regulation are needed. Combining these results with the resilience of Antarctic sea urchin larvae strongly suggests that these organisms might not be the expected victims of ocean acidification. However, data on the impact of other global stressors such as temperature and of the combination of the different stressors needs to be acquired to assess the sensitivity of these organisms to global change.

Modelling the Impact of Built Environment, Geographical Scales and Latent Constructs On Individual Travel Behaviour

La relación entre la estructura urbana y la movilidad ha sido estudiada desde hace más de 70 años. El entorno urbano incluye múltiples dimensiones como por ejemplo: la estructura urbana, los usos de suelo, la distribución de instalaciones diversas (comercios, escuelas y zonas de restauración, parking, etc.). Al realizar una revisión de la literatura existente en este contexto, se encuentran distintos análisis, metodologías, escalas geográficas y dimensiones, tanto de la movilidad como de la estructura urbana. En este sentido, se trata de una relación muy estudiada pero muy compleja, sobre la que no existe hasta el momento un consenso sobre qué dimensión del entorno urbano influye sobre qué dimensión de la movilidad, y cuál es la manera apropiada de representar esta relación. Con el propósito de contestar estas preguntas investigación, la presente tesis tiene los siguientes objetivos generales: (1) Contribuir al mejor entendimiento de la compleja relación estructura urbana y movilidad. y (2) Entender el rol de los atributos latentes en la relación entorno urbano y movilidad. El objetivo específico de la tesis es analizar la influencia del entorno urbano sobre dos dimensiones de la movilidad: número de viajes y tipo de tour. Vista la complejidad de la relación entorno urbano y movilidad, se pretende contribuir al mejor entendimiento de la relación a través de la utilización de 3 escalas geográficas de las variables y del análisis de la influencia de efectos inobservados en la movilidad. Para el análisis se utiliza una base de datos conformada por tres tipos de datos: (1) Una encuesta de movilidad realizada durante los años 2006 y 2007. Se obtuvo un total de 943 encuestas, en 3 barrios de Madrid: Chamberí, Pozuelo y Algete. (2) Información municipal del Instituto Nacional de Estadística: dicha información se encuentra enlazada con los orígenes y destinos de los viajes recogidos en la encuesta. Y (3) Información georeferenciada en Arc-GIS de los hogares participantes en la encuesta: la base de datos contiene información respecto a la estructura de las calles, localización de escuelas, parking, centros médicos y lugares de restauración. Se analizó la correlación entre e intra-grupos y se modelizaron 4 casos de atributos bajo la estructura ordinal logit. Posteriormente se evalúa la auto-selección a través de la estimación conjunta de las elecciones de tipo de barrio y número de viajes. La elección del tipo de barrio consta de 3 alternativas: CBD, Urban y Suburban, según la zona de residencia recogida en las encuestas. Mientras que la elección del número de viajes consta de 4 categorías ordinales: 0 viajes, 1-2 viajes, 3-4 viajes y 5 o más viajes. A partir de la mejor especificación del modelo ordinal logit. Se desarrolló un modelo joint mixed-ordinal conjunto. Los resultados indican que las variables exógenas requieren un análisis exhaustivo de correlaciones con el fin de evitar resultados sesgados. ha determinado que es importante medir los atributos del BE donde se realiza el viaje, pero también la información municipal es muy explicativa de la movilidad individual. Por tanto, la percepción de las zonas de destino a nivel municipal es considerada importante. En el contexto de la Auto-selección (self-selection) es importante modelizar conjuntamente las decisiones. La Auto-selección existe, puesto que los parámetros estimados conjuntamente son significativos. Sin embargo, sólo ciertos atributos del entorno urbano son igualmente importantes sobre la elección de la zona de residencia y frecuencia de viajes. Para analizar la Propensión al Viaje, se desarrolló un modelo híbrido, formado por: una variable latente, un indicador y un modelo de elección discreta. La variable latente se denomina “Propensión al Viaje”, cuyo indicador en ecuación de medida es el número de viajes; la elección discreta es el tipo de tour. El modelo de elección consiste en 5 alternativas, según la jerarquía de actividades establecida en la tesis: HOME, no realiza viajes durante el día de estudio, HWH tour cuya actividad principal es el trabajo o estudios, y no se realizan paradas intermedias; HWHs tour si el individuo reaiza paradas intermedias; HOH tour cuya actividad principal es distinta a trabajo y estudios, y no se realizan paradas intermedias; HOHs donde se realizan paradas intermedias. Para llegar a la mejor especificación del modelo, se realizó un trabajo importante considerando diferentes estructuras de modelos y tres tipos de estimaciones. De tal manera, se obtuvieron parámetros consistentes y eficientes. Los resultados muestran que la modelización de los tours, representa una ventaja sobre la modelización de los viajes, puesto que supera las limitaciones de espacio y tiempo, enlazando los viajes realizados por la misma persona en el día de estudio. La propensión al viaje (PT) existe y es específica para cada tipo de tour. Los parámetros estimados en el modelo híbrido resultaron significativos y distintos para cada alternativa de tipo de tour. Por último, en la tesis se verifica que los modelos híbridos representan una mejora sobre los modelos tradicionales de elección discreta, dando como resultado parámetros consistentes y más robustos. En cuanto a políticas de transporte, se ha demostrado que los atributos del entorno urbano son más importantes que los LOS (Level of Service) en la generación de tours multi-etapas. la presente tesis representa el primer análisis empírico de la relación entre los tipos de tours y la propensión al viaje. El concepto Propensity to Travel ha sido desarrollado exclusivamente para la tesis. Igualmente, el desarrollo de un modelo conjunto RC-Number of trips basado en tres escalas de medida representa innovación en cuanto a la comparación de las escalas geográficas, que no había sido hecha en la modelización de la self-selection. The relationship between built environment (BE) and travel behaviour (TB) has been studied in a number of cases, using several methods - aggregate and disaggregate approaches - and different focuses – trip frequency, automobile use, and vehicle miles travelled and so on. Definitely, travel is generated by the need to undertake activities and obtain services, and there is a general consensus that urban components affect TB. However researches are still needed to better understand which components of the travel behaviour are affected most and by which of the urban components. In order to fill the gap in the research, the present dissertation faced two main objectives: (1) To contribute to the better understanding of the relationship between travel demand and urban environment. And (2) To develop an econometric model for estimating travel demand with urban environment attributes. With this purpose, the present thesis faced an exhaustive research and computation of land-use variables in order to find the best representation of BE for modelling trip frequency. In particular two empirical analyses are carried out: 1. Estimation of three dimensions of travel demand using dimensions of urban environment. We compare different travel dimensions and geographical scales, and we measure self-selection contribution following the joint models. 2. Develop a hybrid model, integrated latent variable and discrete choice model. The implementation of hybrid models is new in the analysis of land-use and travel behaviour. BE and TB explicitly interact and allow richness information about a specific individual decision process For all empirical analysis is used a data-base from a survey conducted in 2006 and 2007 in Madrid. Spatial attributes describing neighbourhood environment are derived from different data sources: National Institute of Statistics-INE (Administrative: municipality and district) and GIS (circular units). INE provides raw data for such spatial units as: municipality and district. The construction of census units is trivial as the census bureau provides tables that readily define districts and municipalities. The construction of circular units requires us to determine the radius and associate the spatial information to our households. The first empirical part analyzes trip frequency by applying an ordered logit model. In this part is studied the effect of socio-economic, transport and land use characteristics on two travel dimensions: trip frequency and type of tour. In particular the land use is defined in terms of type of neighbourhoods and types of dwellers. Three neighbourhood representations are explored, and described three for constructing neighbourhood attributes. In particular administrative units are examined to represent neighbourhood and circular – unit representation. Ordered logit models are applied, while ordinal logit models are well-known, an intensive work for constructing a spatial attributes was carried out. On the other hand, the second empirical analysis consists of the development of an innovative econometric model that considers a latent variable called “propensity to travel”, and choice model is the choice of type of tour. The first two specifications of ordinal models help to estimate this latent variable. The latent variable is unobserved but the manifestation is called “indicators”, then the probability of choosing an alternative of tour is conditional to the probability of latent variable and type of tour. Since latent variable is unknown we fit the integral over its distribution. Four “sets of best variables” are specified, following the specification obtained from the correlation analysis. The results evidence that the relative importance of SE variables versus BE variables depends on how BE variables are measured. We found that each of these three spatial scales has its intangible qualities and drawbacks. Spatial scales play an important role on predicting travel demand due to the variability in measures at trip origin/destinations within the same administrative unit (municipality, district and so on). Larger units will produce less variation in data; but it does not affect certain variables, such as public transport supply, that are more significant at municipality level. By contrast, land-use measures are more efficient at district level. Self-selection in this context, is weak. Thus, the influence of BE attributes is true. The results of the hybrid model show that unobserved factors affect the choice of tour complexity. The latent variable used in this model is propensity to travel that is explained by socioeconomic aspects and neighbourhood attributes. The results show that neighbourhood attributes have indeed a significant impact on the choice of the type of tours either directly and through the propensity to travel. The propensity to travel has a different impact depending on the structure of each tour and increases the probability of choosing more complex tours, such as tours with many intermediate stops. The integration of choice and latent variable model shows that omitting important perception and attitudes leads to inconsistent estimates. The results also indicate that goodness of fit improves by adding the latent variable in both sequential and simultaneous estimation. There are significant differences in the sensitivity to the latent variable across alternatives. In general, as expected, the hybrid models show a major improvement into the goodness of fit of the model, compared to a classical discrete choice model that does not incorporate latent effects. The integrated model leads to a more detailed analysis of the behavioural process. Summarizing, the effect that built environment characteristics on trip frequency studied is deeply analyzed. In particular we tried to better understand how land use characteristics can be defined and measured and which of these measures do have really an impact on trip frequency. We also tried to test the superiority of HCM on this field. We can concluded that HCM shows a major improvement into the goodness of fit of the model, compared to classical discrete choice model that does not incorporate latent effects. And consequently, the application of HCM shows the importance of LV on the decision of tour complexity. People are more elastic to built environment attributes than level of services. Thus, policy implications must take place to develop more mixed areas, work-places in combination with commercial retails.

¿Impact from road transport of radioactive wastes in Spain?

Transports of radioactive wastes in Spain are becoming issues of renewed interest, due to the increased mobility of these materials which can be expected after the building and operation of the planned central repository for this country in a near future. Such types of residues will be mainly of the medium and high activity classes and have raised concerns on the safety of the operations, the radiological protection of the individuals, the compliance with the legal regulations and their environmental consequences of all kind. In this study, relevant information for the assessment of radiological risk of road transport were taken into account, as the sources and destination of the radioactive transports, the amount of traveling to be done, the preferred routes and populations affected, the characterization of the residues and containers, their corresponding testing, etc. These data were supplied by different organizations fully related with these activities, like the nuclear power stations, the companies in charge of radioactive transports, the enterprises for inspection and control of the activities, etc., as well as the government institutions which are responsible for the selection and location of the storage facility and other decisions on the nuclear policies of the country. Thus, we have developed a program for computing the data in such a form that by entering the radiation levels at one meter of the transport loads and by choosing a particular displacement, the computer application is capable to calculate the corresponding radiological effects, like the global estimated impact, its relevance to the population in general or on those people living and driving near the main road routes, the doses received by the most exposed individuals (e.g. the workers for loading or driving the vehicle), or the probability of detrimental on the human health. The results of this work could be of help for a better understanding and management of these activities and their related impacts; at the same time that the generated reports of the computer application are considered of particular interest as innovative and complementary information to the current legal documentation, which is basically required for transporting radioactive wastes in the country, according with the international safety rules (like IAEA and ADR).Though main studies are still in progress, as the definite location for the Spanish storage facility has not been decided yet, preliminary results with the existing transports of residues of medium activity indicate that the radiological impact is very low in conventional operations. Nevertheless, the management of these transports is complex and laborious, making it convenient to progress further in the analysis and quantification of this kind of events, which constitutes one of the main objectives of the present study for the radioactive road mobility in Spain.

World fleet vs. Spanish bunkering. Its impact on ECAS areas

On December 17 came into force on community standard marine fuels. Bunker prices are expected to increase, recent statistics support this argument and the difference between the high sulphur (HS) and the low sulphur (LS) marine bunkers will be sustained. Considering also the price difference between the basis-market of Rotterdam with the rest European ports, the expected bunker prices will be higher in the Mediterranean. This paper begins with a review of the current situation in ECAS areas, highlighting the rules to be implemented shortly. The aim of the paper is known the current situation bunkering determine the estimated short term in Spain from world fleet.

Development of an Elevated Temperature Loop Heat Pipe for Space Applications and Investigation of Non Condensable Gas Impact on its Performance

Un caloducto en bucle cerrado o Loop Heat Pipe (LHP) es un dispositivo de transferencia de calor cuyo principio de operación se basa en la evaporación/condensación de un fluido de trabajo, que es bombeado a través de un circuito cerrado gracias a fuerzas de capilaridad. Gracias a su flexibilidad, su baja masa y su mínimo (incluso nulo) consumo de potencia, su principal aplicación ha sido identificada como parte del subsistema de control térmico de vehículos espaciales. En el presente trabajo se ha desarrollado un LHP capaz de funcionar eficientemente a temperaturas de hasta 125 oC, siguiendo la actual tendencia de los equipos a bordo de satélites de incrementar su temperatura de operación. En la selección del diseño optimo para dicho LHP, la compatibilidad entre materiales y fluido de trabajo se identificó como uno de los puntos clave. Para seleccionar la mejor combinación, se llevó a cabo una exhaustiva revisión del estado del arte, además de un estudio especifico que incluía el desarrollo de un banco de ensayos de compatibilidad. Como conclusión, la combinación seleccionada como la candidata idónea para ser integrada en el LHP capaz de operar hasta 125 oC fue un evaporador de acero inoxidable, líneas de titanio y amoniaco como fluido de trabajo. En esa línea se diseñó y fabricó un prototipo para ensayos y se desarrolló un modelo de simulación con EcosimPro para evaluar sus prestaciones. Se concluyó que el diseño era adecuado para el rango de operación definido. La incompatibilidad entre el fluido de trabajo y los materiales del LHP está ligada a la generación de gases no condensables. Para un estudio más detallado de los efectos de dichos gases en el funcionamiento del LHP se analizó su comportamiento con diferentes cantidades de nitrógeno inyectadas en su cámara de compensación, simulando un gas no condensable formado en el interior del dispositivo. El estudio se basó en el análisis de las temperaturas medidas experimentalmente a distintos niveles de potencia y temperatura de sumidero o fuente fría. Adicionalmente, dichos resultados se compararon con las predicciones obtenidas por medio del modelo en EcosimPro. Las principales conclusiones obtenidas fueron dos. La primera indica que una cantidad de gas no condensable más de dos veces mayor que la cantidad generada al final de la vida de un satélite típico de telecomunicaciones (15 años) tiene efectos casi despreciables en el funcionamiento del LHP. La segunda es que el principal efecto del gas no condensable es una disminución de la conductancia térmica, especialmente a bajas potencias y temperaturas de sumidero. El efecto es más significativo cuanto mayor es la cantidad de gas añadida. Asimismo, durante la campaña de ensayos se observó un fenómeno no esperado para grandes cantidades de gas no condensable. Dicho fenómeno consiste en un comportamiento oscilatorio, detectado tanto en los ensayos como en la simulación. Este efecto es susceptible de una investigación más profunda y los resultados obtenidos pueden constituir la base para dicha tarea. ABSTRACT Loop Heat Pipes (LHPs) are heat transfer devices whose operating principle is based on the evaporation/condensation of a working fluid, and which use capillary pumping forces to ensure the fluid circulation. Thanks to their flexibility, low mass and minimum (even null) power consumption, their main application has been identified as part of the thermal control subsystem in spacecraft. In the present work, an LHP able to operate efficiently up to 125 oC has been developed, which is in line with the current tendency of satellite on-board equipment to increase their operating temperatures. In selecting the optimal LHP design for the elevated temperature application, the compatibility between the materials and working fluid has been identified as one of the main drivers. An extensive literature review and a dedicated trade-off were performed, in order to select the optimal combination of fluids and materials for the LHP. The trade-off included the development of a dedicated compatibility test stand. In conclusion, the combination of stainless steel evaporator, titanium piping and ammonia as working fluid was selected as the best candidate to operate up to 125 oC. An LHP prototype was designed and manufactured and a simulation model in EcosimPro was developed to evaluate its performance. The first conclusion was that the defined LHP was suitable for the defined operational range. Incompatibility between the working fluid and LHP materials is linked to Non Condensable Gas (NCG) generation. Therefore, the behaviour of the LHP developed with different amounts of nitrogen injected in its compensation chamber to simulate NCG generation, was analyzed. The LHP performance was studied by analysis of the test results at different temperatures and power levels. The test results were also compared to simulations in EcosimPro. Two additional conclusions can be drawn: (i) the effects of an amount of more than two times the expected NCG at the end of life of a typical telecommunications satellite (15 years) is almost negligible on the LHP operation, and (ii) the main effect of the NCG is a decrease in the LHP thermal conductance, especially at low temperatures and low power levels. This decrease is more significant with the progressive addition of NCG. An unexpected phenomenon was observed in the LHP operation with large NCG amounts. Namely, an oscillatory behaviour, which was observed both in the tests and the simulation. This effect provides the basis for further studies concerning oscillations in LHPs.

Air quality modeling and mortality impact of fine particles reduction policies in Spain

Background: In recent years, Spain has implemented a number of air quality control measures that are expected to lead to a future reduction in fine particle concentrations and an ensuing positive impact on public health. Objectives: We aimed to assess the impact on mortality attributable to a reduction in fine particle levels in Spain in 2014 in relation to the estimated level for 2007. Methods: To estimate exposure, we constructed fine particle distribution models for Spain for 2007 (reference scenario) and 2014 (projected scenario) with a spatial resolution of 16x16 km2. In a second step, we used the concentration-response functions proposed by cohort studies carried out in Europe (European Study of Cohorts for Air Pollution Effects and Rome longitudinal cohort) and North America (American Cancer Society cohort, Harvard Six Cities study and Canadian national cohort) to calculate the number of attributable annual deaths corresponding to all causes, all non-accidental causes, ischemic heart disease and lung cancer among persons aged over 25 years (2005-2007 mortality rate data). We examined the effect of the Spanish demographic shift in our analysis using 2007 and 2012 population figures. Results: Our model suggested that there would be a mean overall reduction in fine particle levels of 1mg/m3 by 2014. Taking into account 2007 population data, between 8 and 15 all-cause deaths per 100,000 population could be postponed annually by the expected reduction in fine particle levels. For specific subgroups, estimates varied from 10 to 30 deaths for all non-accidental causes, from 1 to 5 for lung cancer, and from 2 to 6 for ischemic heart disease. The expected burden of preventable mortality would be even higher in the future due to the Spanish population growth. Taking into account the population older than 30 years in 2012, the absolute mortality impact estimate would increase approximately by 18%. Conclusions: Effective implementation of air quality measures in Spain, in a scenario with a short-term projection, would amount to an appreciable decline infine particle concentrations, and this, in turn, would lead to notable health-related benefits. Recent European cohort studies strengthen the evidence of an association between long-term exposure to fine particles and health effects, and could enhance the health impact quantification in Europe. Air quality models can contribute to improved assessment of air pollution health impact estimates, particularly in study areas without air pollution monitoring data.

Mid-term impact estimation on evaluations of rural development programs

Mid-term evaluations are carried out during the implementation of the program and shall indicate whether it is necessary to redirect and make corrections before the ex-post evaluation, or for the next programming period. One of the core elements within these evaluations is the estimation of programs expected impacts. This is especially important for the Commission in order to support sound decision making, but also a very challenging task, as many evaluators have pointed out, mainly due to the lack of available data at the time the study had to be carried out. The aim of this study is therefore to analyze how impact estimation has been done in all European Union regions, as well as the problems encountered by evaluators.