Adaptív döntéshozatal a beszállítóválasztásban = Adaptive Decision-making in Supplier Selection

Herbert Simon, a korlátozott racionalitás elméletének megalkotója szerint a döntéshozatalunk hatékonyságát az határozza meg, hogy korlátozott kognitív kapacitásaink birtokában milyen stratégiákkal birkózunk meg a komplex környezet kihívásaival. Az erre az elméletre építő kutatások egyik alapvetése, hogy az egyéni problémamegoldási folyamat helyzetspecifikus és ez az idomulás kulcsfontosságú az eredményességben és hatékonyságban. A döntéshozó rendelkezik egy „adaptív szerszámosládával”, amelyből a megfelelő helyzetekben a megfelelő döntési eljárásokat választja. A tanulmányban a szerző egy kvalitatív kutatás eredményeire építve, a beszállítóválasztás példáján keresztül mutat be lehetséges válaszokat a keveset kutatott kérdésre: hogyan működik az adaptivitás folyamata? A tanulmány a döntési helyzethez való alkalmazkodás kialakulását vizsgálja a döntési folyamatok kognitív szintjén. ______ Herbert Simon, the author of theory of bounded rationality claimed that the results of our decision-making is defined by the approprietness of strategies with which we handle the complexity of the environment with our bounded cognitive capacities. One of the main issues or research programs building on this theory is that problem solving is situation-specific, and the adjustment of strategies to actual situational factors is crucial for the effectiveness and efficiency of decision-making. The decision-maker possesses an „adaptive toolbox”, from which he chooses the right decision tools in the right situations. The author, based on the findnings of a qualitative study, presents possible answers to the not well-elaborated question: how does the process of adaptivity work? Forming of an adaptive mechanism is in the focus.

Effects of structured writing versus nonstructured writing as an effective and efficient teaching and learning strategy

This research investigated the effectiveness and efficiency of structured writing as compared to traditional nonstructured writing as a teaching and learning strategy in a training session for teachers.^ Structured writing is a method of identifying, interrelating, sequencing, and graphically displaying information on fields of a page or computer. It is an alternative for improving training and educational outcomes by providing an effective and efficient documentation methodology.^ The problem focuses upon the contradiction between: (a) the supportive research and theory to modify traditional methods of written documents and information presentation and (b) the existing paradigm to continue with traditional communication methods.^ A MANOVA was used to determine significant difference between a control and an experimental group in a posttest only experimental design. The experimental group received the treatment of structured writing materials during a training session. Two variables were analyzed. They were: (a) effectiveness; correct items on a posttest, and (b) efficiency; time spent on test.^ The quantitative data showed a difference for the experimental group on the two dependent variables. The experimental group completed the posttest in 2 minutes less time while scoring 1.5 more items correct. An interview with the training facilitators revealed that the structured writing materials were "user friendly." ^

Fostering the development of identity and intimacy during late adolescence

This dissertation tested the effectiveness of a psychosocial intervention, the Personal Development in the Context of Relationships (PDCR) program. The aim of the PDCR seeks to foster the development (or enhancement) of a sense of identity and intimacy among adolescents who participate in the program. The PDCR is a psychosocial group intervention which utilizes interpersonal relationship issues as a context to foster personal development in identity formation and facilitate the development of an individual's capacity for intimacy. The PDCR uses intervention strategies which include skills and knowledge development, experiential group exercises, and exploration for insight. Participants consisted of 110 late adolescents. A mixed-subjects design (pre-post-follow up) was used to assess the effectiveness, efficacy and utility of the PDCR on the experimental condition relative to a content/social contact control group and a time control condition. Identity exploration and identity commitment were measured by the Ego Identity Process Questionnaire (EIPQ). Total intimacy and identity role satisfaction were measured by the Erikson Psychosocial Stage Inventory (EPSI). Relationship quality and closeness were measured by the Relationship Quality Scale (RQS) and the Relationship Closeness Inventory (RCI) in an effort to assess whether any potential impact on interpersonal relationships occurs. Mixed MANOVAs were used to analyze the data with results yielding significant values for increased total identity exploration from pre to post test and decreases in total identity commitment from pre to post to follow-up test in the experimental group relative to the control conditions on the EIPQ. Further results indicated increases in total intimacy from pre to post to follow-up test in the experimental group relative to the control conditions on the EPSI. No clear trends emerged from pre to post to follow-up test for the Relationship measures. Results are discussed in terms of both practical and theoretical implications. ^

Determinants of confidence and their effect on epistemic judgments: Implications for auditor calibration bias

Auditor decisions regarding the causes of accounting misstatements can have an audit effectiveness and efficiency. Specifically, overconfidence in one's decision can lead to an ineffective audit, whereas underconfidence in one's decision can lead to an inefficient audit. This dissertation explored the implications of providing various types of information cues to decision-makers regarding an Analytical Procedure task and investigated the relationship between different types of evidence cues (confirming, disconfirming, redundant or non-redundant) and the reduction in calibration bias. Information was collected using a laboratory experiment, from 45 accounting students participants. Research questions were analyzed using a 2 x 2 x 2 between-subject and within-subject analysis of covariance (ANCOVA). ^ Results indicated that presenting subjects with information cues dissimilar to the choice they made is an effective intervention in reducing the common overconfidence found in decision-making. In addition, other information characteristics, specifically non-redundant information can help in reducing a decision-maker's overconfidence/calibration bias for difficulty (compared to easy) decision-tasks. ^

Real-time scheduling of embedded applications on multi-core platforms

For the past several decades, we have experienced the tremendous growth, in both scale and scope, of real-time embedded systems, thanks largely to the advances in IC technology. However, the traditional approach to get performance boost by increasing CPU frequency has been a way of past. Researchers from both industry and academia are turning their focus to multi-core architectures for continuous improvement of computing performance. In our research, we seek to develop efficient scheduling algorithms and analysis methods in the design of real-time embedded systems on multi-core platforms. Real-time systems are the ones with the response time as critical as the logical correctness of computational results. In addition, a variety of stringent constraints such as power/energy consumption, peak temperature and reliability are also imposed to these systems. Therefore, real-time scheduling plays a critical role in design of such computing systems at the system level. We started our research by addressing timing constraints for real-time applications on multi-core platforms, and developed both partitioned and semi-partitioned scheduling algorithms to schedule fixed priority, periodic, and hard real-time tasks on multi-core platforms. Then we extended our research by taking temperature constraints into consideration. We developed a closed-form solution to capture temperature dynamics for a given periodic voltage schedule on multi-core platforms, and also developed three methods to check the feasibility of a periodic real-time schedule under peak temperature constraint. We further extended our research by incorporating the power/energy constraint with thermal awareness into our research problem. We investigated the energy estimation problem on multi-core platforms, and developed a computation efficient method to calculate the energy consumption for a given voltage schedule on a multi-core platform. In this dissertation, we present our research in details and demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of our approaches with extensive experimental results.

Spam campaign detection, analysis, and formalization

Les courriels Spams (courriels indésirables ou pourriels) imposent des coûts annuels extrêmement lourds en termes de temps, d’espace de stockage et d’argent aux utilisateurs privés et aux entreprises. Afin de lutter efficacement contre le problème des spams, il ne suffit pas d’arrêter les messages de spam qui sont livrés à la boîte de réception de l’utilisateur. Il est obligatoire, soit d’essayer de trouver et de persécuter les spammeurs qui, généralement, se cachent derrière des réseaux complexes de dispositifs infectés, ou d’analyser le comportement des spammeurs afin de trouver des stratégies de défense appropriées. Cependant, une telle tâche est difficile en raison des techniques de camouflage, ce qui nécessite une analyse manuelle des spams corrélés pour trouver les spammeurs. Pour faciliter une telle analyse, qui doit être effectuée sur de grandes quantités des courriels non classés, nous proposons une méthodologie de regroupement catégorique, nommé CCTree, permettant de diviser un grand volume de spams en des campagnes, et ce, en se basant sur leur similarité structurale. Nous montrons l’efficacité et l’efficience de notre algorithme de clustering proposé par plusieurs expériences. Ensuite, une approche d’auto-apprentissage est proposée pour étiqueter les campagnes de spam en se basant sur le but des spammeur, par exemple, phishing. Les campagnes de spam marquées sont utilisées afin de former un classificateur, qui peut être appliqué dans la classification des nouveaux courriels de spam. En outre, les campagnes marquées, avec un ensemble de quatre autres critères de classement, sont ordonnées selon les priorités des enquêteurs. Finalement, une structure basée sur le semiring est proposée pour la représentation abstraite de CCTree. Le schéma abstrait de CCTree, nommé CCTree terme, est appliqué pour formaliser la parallélisation du CCTree. Grâce à un certain nombre d’analyses mathématiques et de résultats expérimentaux, nous montrons l’efficience et l’efficacité du cadre proposé.

A Sense of Wonder: Enhancing Access to Folktales through Task and Facet Analysis

Discusses the approach taken in Phase 1 of a three-phase project Folktales, Facets and FRBR [funded by a grant from OCLC/ALISE]. This project works with the special collection of folktales at the Center for Children’s Books (CCB) at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, and the scholars who use this collection. The project aims to enhance the effectiveness and efficiency of folktale access through deep understanding of user needs. Phase 1 included facet analysis of the bibliographic records for a sample of 100 folktale books in the CCB, and task analysis of interviews with four CCB-affiliated faculty. Describes the information tasks, information seeking obstacles, and desired features for a discovery and access tool related to folktales for this initial group of scholarly users of folktales.

Trajetórias de inserção e RSI : impactos dos trabalhos da instituição Salvaterra

Dissertação de Mestrado, Ciências Sociais, 30 de Setembro de 2016, Universidade dos Açores.

Clima psicológico e desempenho organizacional nas secções de uma autarquia local

Dissertação de Mestrado apresentada ao Instituto Superior de Psicologia Aplicada para a obtenção do grau de Mestre na especificidade de Psicologia Social e das Organizações

Relatório de estágio na GESTAMP Aveiro: a melhoria contínua aplicada à gestão de processos logísticos

O presente Relatório de Estágio procura fornecer uma visão global das atividades realizadas ao longo do estágio no Departamento de Logística, na Gestamp Aveiro. O relatório inicia-se com uma apresentação da empresa acolhedora, bem como do departamento de logística. Após esta apresentação é feito um enquadramento teórico que se debruça sobre o conceito de logística e as filosofias de melhoria contínua na eliminação de desperdícios (Kaizen e Lean), seguindo-se a apresentação das tarefas desenvolvidas ao longo dos seis meses de estágio. Considerando que todas as atividades desenvolvidas são resultado de implementações e/ou sugestões de melhoria aplicadas à empresa, este relatório realça a importância do espírito crítico na procura incessante pela melhoria da eficácia e eficiência em todas as áreas empresariais.

Manual de Controlo Interno no Âmbito da Contratação Pública: Uma Proposta para a Direção de Navios

A contratação pública, enquanto universo de formação dos contratos públicos, ao ser abordada numa perspetiva adequada pode ser considerada como um mecanismo para alcançar um crescimento inteligente e sustentável e, para assegurar, simultaneamente, uma utilização eficiente dos fundos públicos. A aplicação de um Sistema de controlo interno, para além de ser um instrumento de auxílio na tomada de decisão, permite incrementar a eficácia e eficiência das operações, uma maior fiabilidade da informação financeira e a garantia do cumprimento dos diplomas legais que a estas se aplicam. Neste sentido, pelo facto de um valor considerável do Orçamento de Estado atribuído à Marinha estar alocado à atividade de manutenção, cuja entidade responsável é a Direção de Navios, é de todo o interesse criar ferramentas que permitam uma melhor gestão dos fundos públicos, bem como, garantir a máxima operacionalidade dos meios que concorrem para o cumprimento da missão da Marinha. O presente estudo tem como objetivos identificar quais os elementos relativos à formação e execução dos contratos públicos que podem ser melhorados de modo a incrementar o controlo interno no âmbito da atividade procedimental referente à aquisição, construção e reparação de meios navais e unidades de apoio à Marinha. De forma a alcançar este desiderato utilizou-se o método do ´estudo de caso´, servindo a Direção de Navios como unidade de estudo, conjugando diferentes técnicas de recolha de dados. Com este estudo conclui-se que é necessário incrementar o controlo interno nesta unidade. De modo a colmatar esta problemática, foi elaborado um manual de controlo interno que tem por principal finalidade garantir um elevado desempenho na área da contratação pública e a salvaguarda do interesse público, se implementado por esta unidade.

Robust solutions of bi-blend recipe optimization with quadratic constraints

Production companies use raw materials to compose end-products. They often make different products with the same raw materials. In this research, the focus lies on the production of two end-products consisting of (partly) the same raw materials as cheap as possible. Each of the products has its own demand and quality requirements consisting of quadratic constraints. The minimization of the costs, given the quadratic constraints is a global optimization problem, which can be difficult because of possible local optima. Therefore, the multi modal character of the (bi-) blend problem is investigated. Standard optimization packages (solvers) in Matlab and GAMS were tested on their ability to solve the problem. In total 20 test cases were generated and taken from literature to test solvers on their effectiveness and efficiency to solve the problem. The research also gives insight in adjusting the quadratic constraints of the problem in order to make a robust problem formulation of the bi-blend problem.

Evaluación de la eficiencia del ozonificador en el tratamiento de agua utilizada para consumo humano en la fundación María Amor de la parroquia Sayausí

En la Fundación “María Amor” de la parroquia de Sayausí, se utiliza un equipo de ozonificación para el proceso de desinfección para obtener agua inocua. En este trabajo, se realizó la evaluación de la eficiencia del ozonificador cuya función es disminuir la carga bacteriana del agua, para lo cual se efectuó el análisis microbiológico de la misma, mediante la determinación de la presencia de coliformes totales y fecales que son empleados como parámetros indicadores de calidad sanitaria del agua. Para la evaluación de la eficiencia del ozonificador se determinó coliformes totales y fecales mediante el método del NMP (número más probable). Se analizaron64 muestras, tomadas en la Fundación María Amor, de las cuales 32 corresponden al agua entubada (antes de ser ozonificada) y 32 corresponden al agua ozonificada con este equipo, en ellas se procedió a realizar el análisis microbiológico mediante el método indicada, verificando el cumplimiento de los parámetros establecidos en la normativa ecuatoriana INEN 1108:2014 en cuanto a la calidad microbiológica del agua. Con los resultados obtenidos de la reducción de la carga microbiana se evaluó la eficiencia del equipo de ozonizaciónestablecido en la norma mexicana NOM-1809-SSA1-1998. En los resultados de los parámetros microbiológicos se realizó un análisis descriptivo y de varianza con un nivel de significancia del 5%, en el cual se determinó que los valores de eficiencia estaban por debajo de lo establecido para cumplir con un proceso de ozonificación eficiente.

Quantum kernels for unattributed graphs using discrete-time quantum walks

In this paper, we develop a new family of graph kernels where the graph structure is probed by means of a discrete-time quantum walk. Given a pair of graphs, we let a quantum walk evolve on each graph and compute a density matrix with each walk. With the density matrices for the pair of graphs to hand, the kernel between the graphs is defined as the negative exponential of the quantum Jensen–Shannon divergence between their density matrices. In order to cope with large graph structures, we propose to construct a sparser version of the original graphs using the simplification method introduced in Qiu and Hancock (2007). To this end, we compute the minimum spanning tree over the commute time matrix of a graph. This spanning tree representation minimizes the number of edges of the original graph while preserving most of its structural information. The kernel between two graphs is then computed on their respective minimum spanning trees. We evaluate the performance of the proposed kernels on several standard graph datasets and we demonstrate their effectiveness and efficiency.

Treatment trials for neonatal seizures: the effect of design on sample size

Neonatal seizures are common in the neonatal intensive care unit. Clinicians treat these seizures with several anti-epileptic drugs (AEDs) to reduce seizures in a neonate. Current AEDs exhibit sub-optimal efficacy and several randomized control trials (RCT) of novel AEDs are planned. The aim of this study was to measure the influence of trial design on the required sample size of a RCT. We used seizure time courses from 41 term neonates with hypoxic ischaemic encephalopathy to build seizure treatment trial simulations. We used five outcome measures, three AED protocols, eight treatment delays from seizure onset (Td) and four levels of trial AED efficacy to simulate different RCTs. We performed power calculations for each RCT design and analysed the resultant sample size. We also assessed the rate of false positives, or placebo effect, in typical uncontrolled studies. We found that the false positive rate ranged from 5 to 85% of patients depending on RCT design. For controlled trials, the choice of outcome measure had the largest effect on sample size with median differences of 30.7 fold (IQR: 13.7–40.0) across a range of AED protocols, Td and trial AED efficacy (p<0.001). RCTs that compared the trial AED with positive controls required sample sizes with a median fold increase of 3.2 (IQR: 1.9–11.9; p<0.001). Delays in AED administration from seizure onset also increased the required sample size 2.1 fold (IQR: 1.7–2.9; p<0.001). Subgroup analysis showed that RCTs in neonates treated with hypothermia required a median fold increase in sample size of 2.6 (IQR: 2.4–3.0) compared to trials in normothermic neonates (p<0.001). These results show that RCT design has a profound influence on the required sample size. Trials that use a control group, appropriate outcome measure, and control for differences in Td between groups in analysis will be valid and minimise sample size.