Evaluating the achievements and impacts of EC framework programme transport projects

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to present what kind of elements and evaluation methods should be included into a framework for evaluating the achievements and impacts of transport projects supported in EC Framework Programmes (FP). Further, the paper discusses the possibilities of such an evaluation framework in producing recommendations regarding future transport research and policy objectives as well as mutual learning for the basis of strategic long term planning. Methods The paper describes the two-dimensional evaluation methodology developed in the course of the FP7 METRONOME project. The dimensions are: (1) achievement of project objectives and targets in different levels and (2) research project impacts according to four impact groups. The methodology uses four complementary approaches in evaluation, namely evaluation matrices, coordinator questionnaires, lead user interviews and workshops. Results Based on the methodology testing, with a sample of FP5 and FP6 projects, the main results relating to the rationale, implementation and achievements of FP projects is presented. In general, achievement of objectives in both FPs was good. Strongest impacts were identified within the impact group of management and co-ordination. Also scientific and end-user impacts of the projects were adequate, but wider societal impacts quite modest. The paper concludes with a discussion both on the theoretical and practical implications of the proposed methodology and by presenting some relevant future research needs.

Considerations on the success rate in aeronautical engineering studies in Spain

The relationship between different learning evaluation methods and the academic success in an aeronautical engineering degree in Spain is analysed. The study is based on data about the evolution of academic achievement obtained along the last ten year, along which the evaluation and learning’s methods have suffered huge changes.

Efficient local unfolding with ancestor stacks for full prolog

The integration of powerful partial evaluation methods into practical compilers for logic programs is still far from reality. This is related both to 1) efficiency issues and to 2) the complications of dealing with practical programs. Regarding efnciency, the most successful unfolding rules used nowadays are based on structural orders applied over (covering) ancestors, i.e., a subsequence of the atoms selected during a derivation. Unfortunately, maintaining the structure of the ancestor relation during unfolding introduces significant overhead. We propose an efficient, practical local unfolding rule based on the notion of covering ancestors which can be used in combination with any structural order and allows a stack-based implementation without losing any opportunities for specialization. Regarding the second issue, we propose assertion-based techniques which allow our approach to deal with real programs that include (Prolog) built-ins and external predicates in a very extensible manner. Finally, we report on our implementation of these techniques in a practical partial evaluator, embedded in a state of the art compiler which uses global analysis extensively (the Ciao compiler and, specifically, its preprocessor CiaoPP). The performance analysis of the resulting system shows that our techniques, in addition to dealing with practical programs, are also significantly more efficient in time and somewhat more efficient in memory than traditional tree-based implementations.

Nutrition and physical activity programs for obesity treatment (PRONAF study). methodological approach of the project

Este trabajo aborda la metodología seguida para llevar a cabo el proyecto de investigación PRONAF (Clinical Trials Gov.: number NCT01116856.) Background: At present, scientific consensus exists on the multifactorial etiopatogenia of obesity. Both professionals and researchers agree that treatment must also have a multifactorial approach, including diet, physical activity, pharmacology and/or surgical treatment. These two last ones should be reserved for those cases of morbid obesities or in case of failure of the previous ones. The aim of the PRONAF study is to determine what type of exercise combined with caloric restriction is the most appropriate to be included in overweigth and obesity intervention programs, and the aim of this paper is to describe the design and the evaluation methods used to carry out the PRONAF study. Methods/design: One-hundred nineteen overweight (46 males) and 120 obese (61 males) subjects aged 18–50 years were randomly assigned to a strength training group, an endurance training group, a combined strength + endurance training group or a diet and physical activity recommendations group. The intervention period was 22 weeks (in all cases 3 times/wk of training for 22 weeks and 2 weeks for pre and post evaluation). All subjects followed a hypocaloric diet (25-30% less energy intake than the daily energy expenditure estimated by accelerometry). 29–34% of the total energy intake came from fat, 14–20% from protein, and 50–55% from carbohydrates. The mayor outcome variables assesed were, biochemical and inflamatory markers, body composition, energy balance, physical fitness, nutritional habits, genetic profile and quality of life. 180 (75.3%) subjects finished the study, with a dropout rate of 24.7%. Dropout reasons included: personal reasons 17 (28.8%), low adherence to exercise 3 (5.1%), low adherence to diet 6 (10.2%), job change 6 (10.2%), and lost interest 27 (45.8%). Discussion: Feasibility of the study has been proven, with a low dropout rate which corresponds to the estimated sample size. Transfer of knowledge is foreseen as a spin-off, in order that overweight and obese subjects can benefit from the results. The aim is to transfer it to sports centres. Effectiveness on individual health-related parameter in order to determine the most effective training programme will be analysed in forthcoming publications.

Seismic Activity Rates in the Iberian Peninsula

Evaluating the seismic hazard requires establishing a distribution of the seismic activity rate, irrespective of the methodology used in the evaluation. In practice, how that activity rate is established tends to be the main difference between the various evaluation methods. The traditional procedure relies on a seismogenic zonation and the Gutenberg-Richter (GR) hypothesis. Competing zonations are often compared looking only at the geometry of the zones, but the resulting activity rate is affected by both geometry and the values assigned to the GR parameters. Contour plots can be used for conducting more meaningful comparisons, providing the GR parameters are suitably normalised. More recent approaches for establishing the seismic activity rate forego the use of zones and GR statistics and special attention is paid here to such procedures. The paper presents comparisons between the local activity rates that result for the complete Iberian Peninsula using kernel estimators as well as two seismogenic zonations. It is concluded that the smooth variation of the seismic activity rate produced by zoneless methods is more realistic than the stepwise changes associated with zoned approaches; moreover, the choice of zonation often has a stronger influence on the results than its fairly subjective origin would warrant. It is also observed that the activity rate derived from the kernel approach, related with the GR parameter “a”, is qualitatively consistent with the epicentres in the catalogue. Finally, when comparing alternative zonations it is not just their geometry but the distribution of activity rate that should be compared.

Systematic Approach for the selection of monitoring technologies in CO2 geological storage projects. Application of multicriteria decision making

Geologic storage of carbon dioxide (CO2) has been proposed as a viable means for reducing anthropogenic CO2 emissions. Once injection begins, a program for measurement, monitoring, and verification (MMV) of CO2 distribution is required in order to: a) research key features, effects and processes needed for risk assessment; b) manage the injection process; c) delineate and identify leakage risk and surface escape; d) provide early warnings of failure near the reservoir; and f) verify storage for accounting and crediting. The selection of the methodology of monitoring (characterization of site and control and verification in the post-injection phase) is influenced by economic and technological variables. Multiple Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) refers to a methodology developed for making decisions in the presence of multiple criteria. MCDM as a discipline has only a relatively short history of 40 years, and it has been closely related to advancements on computer technology. Evaluation methods and multicriteria decisions include the selection of a set of feasible alternatives, the simultaneous optimization of several objective functions, and a decision-making process and evaluation procedures that must be rational and consistent. The application of a mathematical model of decision-making will help to find the best solution, establishing the mechanisms to facilitate the management of information generated by number of disciplines of knowledge. Those problems in which decision alternatives are finite are called Discrete Multicriteria Decision problems. Such problems are most common in reality and this case scenario will be applied in solving the problem of site selection for storing CO2. Discrete MCDM is used to assess and decide on issues that by nature or design support a finite number of alternative solutions. Recently, Multicriteria Decision Analysis has been applied to hierarchy policy incentives for CCS, to assess the role of CCS, and to select potential areas which could be suitable to store. For those reasons, MCDM have been considered in the monitoring phase of CO2 storage, in order to select suitable technologies which could be techno-economical viable. In this paper, we identify techniques of gas measurements in subsurface which are currently applying in the phase of characterization (pre-injection); MCDM will help decision-makers to hierarchy the most suitable technique which fit the purpose to monitor the specific physic-chemical parameter.

Validación de sistemas constructivos de los cerramientos de la edificación mediante la aplicación de los métodos de decisión multicriterio : aplicación al catálogo de elementos constructivos del Código Técnico de la Edificación

Como punto de partida para el desarrollo de la Tesis, se mantiene la hipótesis de que es posible establecer métodos de evaluación global sobre el grado de utilidad de los sistemas constructivos correspondientes a los cerramientos de la edificación. Tales métodos habrían de posibilitar, de entre una serie finita de sistemas alternativos, cuáles de ellos son los objetivamente más adecuados para su selección en un entorno de decisión concreto, y habrían de permitir fundamentar la justificación objetiva de tal decisión. Paralelamente a esta hipótesis de carácter general, se planteó desde el inicio la necesidad de comprobación de una hipótesis de partida particular según la cual los sistemas constructivos basados en la utilización de componentes prefabricados, o procesos de puesta en obra con un alto grado de industrialización arrojarían valores de utilidad mayores que los sistemas tradicionales basados en la albañilería. Para la verificación de estas dos hipótesis de partida se ha procedido inicialmente a la selección de un conjunto coherente de doce sistemas de cerramientos de la edificación que pudiese servir como testigo de su diversidad potencial, para proceder a su valoración comparativa. El método de valoración propuesto ha entrado a considerar una serie de factores de diversa índole que no son reducibles a un único parámetro o magnitud que permitiese una valoración de tipo lineal sobre su idoneidad relativa, ni que permitiese establecer un grado de prelación entre los distintos sistemas constructivos alternativos de manera absoluta. Para resolver este tour de force o desafío metodológico se ha acudido a la aplicación de metodologías de valoración que nos permitiesen establecer de forma racional dicha comparativa. Nos referimos a una serie de metodologías provenientes en primera instancia de las ciencias exactas, que reciben la denominación de métodos de ayuda a la decisión multicriterio, y en concreto el denominado método ELECTRE. Inicialmente, se ha planteado la aplicación del método de análisis sobre doce sistemas constructivos seleccionados de tal forma que representasen de forma adecuada las tres categorías establecidas para caracterizar la totalidad de sistemas constructivos posibles; por peso, grado de prefabricación y grado de ventilación. Si bien la combinación de las tres categorías básicas anteriormente señaladas produce un total de 18 subcategorías conceptuales, tomamos finalmente doce subcategorías dado que consideramos que es un número operativo suficiente por extenso para el análisis propuesto y elimina tipos no relevantes. Aplicado el método propuesto, a estos doce sistemas constructivos “testigo”, se constata el mayor grado de utilidad de los sistemas prefabricados, pesados y no ventilados. Al hilo del análisis realizado en la Parte II de la Tesis sobre los doce sistemas constructivos “testigo”, se ha realizado un volcado de los sistemas constructivos incluidos en el Catalogo de Elementos Constructivos del CTE (versión 2010) sobre las dieciocho subcategorías definidas en dicha Parte II para caracterizar los sistemas constructivos “testigo”. Posteriormente, se ha procedido a una parametrización de la totalidad de sistemas constructivos para cerramientos de fachadas incluidos en este Catálogo. La parametrización sistemática realizada ha permitido establecer, mediante el cálculo del valor medio que adoptan los parámetros de los sistemas pertenecientes a una misma familia de las establecidas por el Catálogo, una caracterización comparativa del grado de utilidad de dichas familias, tanto en lo relativo a cada uno de los parámetros como en una valoración global de sus valores, de carácter indicativo. Una vez realizada una parametrización completa de la totalidad de sistemas constructivos incluidos en el Catálogo, se ha realizado una simulación de aplicación de la metodología de validación desarrollada en la Parte II de la presente Tesis, con el objeto de comprobar su adecuación al caso. En conclusión, el desarrollo de una herramienta de apoyo a la decisión multicriterio aplicada al Catálogo de Elementos constructivos del CTE se ha demostrado técnicamente viable y arroja resultados significativos. Se han diseñado dos sistemas constructivos mediante la aplicación de la herramienta desarrollada, uno de fachada no ventilada y otro de fachada ventilada. Comparados estos dos sistemas constructivos mejorados con otros sistemas constructivos analizados Se comprueba el alto grado de utilidad objetiva de los dos sistemas diseñados en relación con el resto. La realización de este ejercicio de diseño de un sistema constructivo específico, que responde a los requerimientos de un decisor concreto viene a demostrar, así pues, la utilidad del algoritmo propuesto en su aplicación a los procesos de diseño de los sistemas constructivos. La tesis incorpora dos innovaciones metodológicas y tres innovaciones instrumentales. ABSTRACT The starting point for the thesis is the hypothesis that it is possible to devise suitability degree evaluation methods of building enclosure systems. Such methods should allow optimizing appraisal, given a specific domain of decision, among a finite number of alternative systems, and provide objective justification of such decision. Along with the above mentioned general assumption, a second hypothesis whereby constructive systems based on the use of prefabricated components, or high industrialization degree work processes, would throw efficiency values higher than traditional masonry systems needed to be tested. In order to validate these two hypothesis a coherent set of twelve enclosure systems that could serve as a reference sample of their potential diversity was selected and a comparative evaluation was carried out. The valuation method proposed has considered several different factors that are neither reducible to a single parameter or magnitude that would allow a linear evaluation of their relative suitability nor allow to establishing an absolute priority ranking between different alternative constructive systems. In order to resolve this tour de force or methodological challenge, valuation methodologies that enable use establishing rational assessments were used. We are referring to a number of methodologies taken from the exact sciences field, usually known as aid methods for multi-criteria decision, in particular the so-called ELECTRE method. Even though the combination of the mentioned three basic categories result in eighteen conceptual sub categories, we are finally considering just twelve since we deem it adequately extended for the our intended purpose and eliminates non relevant instances. The method of analysis was initially applied to the set of twelve selected constructive systems is a way that they could represent adequately the three previously established categories set out to characterize all possible enclosure systems, namely weight, prefabrication degree and ventilation degree. Once the proposed method is applied to the sample systems, the higher efficiency of the prefabricated, heavy and not ventilated systems was confirmed. In line with the analysis in Part II of the thesis on the twelve chosen enclosure systems, it has done an uploading data of construction systems listed in the Catalogue of constructive elements of the CTE (version 2010) according the eighteen subcategories used in this part II to characterize the construction systems taken as sample. Subsequently, a parameterization of all enclosure facade systems included in this catalog has been undertaken. The systematic parameterization has allowed to set, by means of calculating the average values of the parameters of the systems belonging to the same family of those established by the Catalog, a comparative characterization of the efficiency degree of these families, both in relation to each parameter as to an overall evaluation of its values, in a indicative way. After the parameterization of all enclosure systems included in the Catalog, a simulation of validation methodology application developed in Part II of this Thesis has been made, in order to assess its consistency to the referred case. In conclusion, the development of a multi-criteria decision aid tool, applied to the CTE Catalog of constructive elements, has proved to be technically feasible and yields significant results. Two building systems through the application of the developed tool, a non-ventilated façade and a ventilated façade have been designed. Comparing these two improved construction systems with other building systems analyzed, we were able to assess the high degree of objective efficiency of the two systems designed in relation to the rest. The exercise of designing a specific enclosure system that meets the requirements of a particular decision-maker hence shows the suitability of the proposed algorithm applied to the process of enclosure systems design. This Thesis includes two methodological innovations and three instrumental innovations.

Toward the ultimate synthesis/recognition system.

This paper predicts speech synthesis, speech recognition, and speaker recognition technology for the year 2001, and it describes the most important research problems to be solved in order to arrive at these ultimate synthesis and recognition systems. The problems for speech synthesis include natural and intelligible voice production, prosody control based on meaning, capability of controlling synthesized voice quality and choosing individual speaking style, multilingual and multidialectal synthesis, choice of application-oriented speaking styles, capability of adding emotion, and synthesis from concepts. The problems for speech recognition include robust recognition against speech variations, adaptation/normalization to variations due to environmental conditions and speakers, automatic knowledge acquisition for acoustic and linguistic modeling, spontaneous speech recognition, naturalness and ease of human-machine interaction, and recognition of emotion. The problems for speaker recognition are similar to those for speech recognition. The research topics related to all these techniques include the use of articulatory and perceptual constraints and evaluation methods for measuring the quality of technology and systems.

Análise de métodos de avaliação de eco eficiência.

Para que a sustentabilidade seja gerenciada e praticada de maneira efetiva, ela deve ser mensurada, utilizando-se de métodos de avaliação da sustentabilidade. Estão disponíveis diferentes métodos de avaliação, que geralmente reduzem o resultado desse levantamento à indicadores de desempenho ambiental, econômico e social (POPEA; ANNANDALE; MORISON-SAUNDERSB, 2004). Uma das denominações mais bem aceitas e difundidas para a conjunção da dimensão ambiental e econômica é conhecida por avaliação de eco eficiência (AEE). Eco eficiência é o \"aspecto da sustentabilidade que relaciona o desempenho ambiental de um sistema de produto ao valor do sistema de produto\" (ISO, 2012). Estão disponíveis diferentes métodos de AEE, porém sem evidência das suas semelhanças e particularidades e como essas características influenciam na escolha do método mais adequado de AEE em relação às potenciais aplicações O objetivo desta pesquisa é, portanto, analisar e indicar os tipos de métodos de avaliação de eco eficiência (AEE) mais adequados para ações gerenciais nas quais caibam tais abordagens. Foram selecionados onze métodos de AEE, a partir do estabelecimento de critérios de caracterização desses métodos, a saber: BASF, Bayer, EcoWater, Hahn et al., Kuosmanen e Kortelainen, MIPS, NRTEE, UN ESCAP, UN, TU Delft, e WBCSD. Identificaram-se, ainda, quatro potenciais aplicações: (i) Monitoramento de processo com vistas à melhoria contínua; (ii) Selecção e classificação de produtos; (iii) Atendimento a requisitos legais e outros requisitos; e, (iv) Marketing, rotulagem de produtos e comunicação ambiental. A partir dos elementos metodológicos estabelecidos pela norma ISSO 14045 (2012) e do conhecimento obtido dos métodos de AEE, determinaram-se quatro requisitos pelos quais os métodos e os potenciais aplicações foram avaliados: (i) Tipo de indicador de desempenho ambiental; (ii) Tipo de indicador de valor de sistema de produto; (iii) Abrangência de aplicação; e, (iv) Tipo de indicador de eco eficiência. Aplicando-se estes requisitos nos métodos de AEE e nos potenciais usos, concluiu-se que quanto à aplicações em termos de monitoramento de processos com vistas à melhoria continua os métodos de AEE recomendados foram Bayer, NRTEE, WBCSD e UN. Para situações de seleção e classificação de produtos os métodos BASF, EcoWater, Kuosmanen e Kortelainen, MIPS, Hahn et al., TU Delft, UN ESCAP e UN demonstraram ter boa aderência. No que se refere a usos voltados ao atendimento de requisitos legais e/ou de outras naturezas, os métodos NRTEE, WBCSD e UN são os mais indicados. Em aplicações de marketing, rotulagem e comunicação foram indicados os métodos BASF, EcoWater e MIPS. Finalmente, concluiu-se que, para a escolha adequada da metodologia para uma AEE, conhecimento prévio das características de cada abordagem é necessário.

Machine Translation: Translators' Friend or Foe?

This paper discusses the impact of machine translation on the language industry, specifically addressing its effect on translators. It summarizes the history of the development of machine translation, explains the underlying theory that ties machine translation to its practical applications, and describes the different types of machine translation as well as other tools familiar to translators. There are arguments for and against its use, as well as evaluation methods for testing it. Internet and real-time communication are featured for their role in the increase of machine translation use. The potential that this technology has in the future of professional translation is examined. This paper shows that machine translation will continue to be increasingly used whether translators like it or not.

Random exams using Sweave

The adaptation of the Spanish University to the European Higher Education Area (EEES in Spanish) demands the integration of new tools and skills that would make the teaching- learning process easier. This adaptation involves a change in the evaluation methods, which goes from a system where the student was evaluated with a final exam, to a new system where we include a continuous evaluation in which the final exam may represent at most 50% in the vast majority of the Universities. Devising a new and fair continuous evaluation system is not an easy task to do. That would mean a student’s’ learning process follow-up by the teachers, and as a consequence an additional workload on existing staff resources. Traditionally, the continuous evaluation is associated with the daily work of the student and a collection of the different marks partly or entirely based on the work they do during the academic year. Now, small groups of students and an attendance control are important aspects to take into account in order to get an adequate assessment of the students. However, most of the university degrees have groups with more than 70 students, and the attendance control is a complicated task to perform, mostly because it consumes significant amounts of staff time. Another problem found is that the attendance control would encourage not-interested students to be present at class, which might cause some troubles to their classmates. After a two year experience in the development of a continuous assessment in Statistics subjects in Social Science degrees, we think that individual and periodical tasks are the best way to assess results. These tasks or examinations must be done in classroom during regular lessons, so we need an efficient system to put together different and personal questions in order to prevent students from cheating. In this paper we provide an efficient and effective way to elaborate random examination papers by using Sweave, a tool that generates data, graphics and statistical calculus from the software R and shows results in PDF documents created by Latex. In this way, we will be able to design an exam template which could be compiled in order to generate as many PDF documents as it is required, and at the same time, solutions are provided to easily correct them.

Ensemble prediction distribution maps of macroalgae for current conditions and four climate change scenarios and high resultion bathymetry for Potter Cove, WAP, Antarctica

Species distribution models (SDM) predict species occurrence based on statistical relationships with environmental conditions. The R-package biomod2 which includes 10 different SDM techniques and 10 different evaluation methods was used in this study. Macroalgae are the main biomass producers in Potter Cove, King George Island (Isla 25 de Mayo), Antarctica, and they are sensitive to climate change factors such as suspended particulate matter (SPM). Macroalgae presence and absence data were used to test SDMs suitability and, simultaneously, to assess the environmental response of macroalgae as well as to model four scenarios of distribution shifts by varying SPM conditions due to climate change. According to the averaged evaluation scores of Relative Operating Characteristics (ROC) and True scale statistics (TSS) by models, those methods based on a multitude of decision trees such as Random Forest and Classification Tree Analysis, reached the highest predictive power followed by generalized boosted models (GBM) and maximum-entropy approaches (Maxent). The final ensemble model used 135 of 200 calculated models (TSS > 0.7) and identified hard substrate and SPM as the most influencing parameters followed by distance to glacier, total organic carbon (TOC), bathymetry and slope. The climate change scenarios show an invasive reaction of the macroalgae in case of less SPM and a retreat of the macroalgae in case of higher assumed SPM values.

Fitness assessment of document model

Document classification is a supervised machine learning process, where predefined category labels are assigned to documents based on the hypothesis derived from training set of labelled documents. Documents cannot be directly interpreted by a computer system unless they have been modelled as a collection of computable features. Rogati and Yang [M. Rogati and Y. Yang, Resource selection for domain-specific cross-lingual IR, in SIGIR 2004: Proceedings of the 27th annual international conference on Research and Development in Information Retrieval, ACM Press, Sheffied: United Kingdom, pp. 154-161.] pointed out that the effectiveness of document classification system may vary in different domains. This implies that the quality of document model contributes to the effectiveness of document classification. Conventionally, model evaluation is accomplished by comparing the effectiveness scores of classifiers on model candidates. However, this kind of evaluation methods may encounter either under-fitting or over-fitting problems, because the effectiveness scores are restricted by the learning capacities of classifiers. We propose a model fitness evaluation method to determine whether a model is sufficient to distinguish positive and negative instances while still competent to provide satisfactory effectiveness with a small feature subset. Our experiments demonstrated how the fitness of models are assessed. The results of our work contribute to the researches of feature selection, dimensionality reduction and document classification.

A reflexive course for Masters students to understand and plan their own continuing professional development

Continuing Professional Development (CPD) is seen as a vital part of a professional engineer’s career, by professional engineering institutions as well as individual engineers. Factors such as ever-changing workforce requirements and rapid technological change have resulted in engineers no longer being able to rely just on the skills they learnt at university or can pick up on the job; they must undergo a structured professional development with clear objectives to develop further professional knowledge, values and skills. This paper presents a course developed for students undertaking a Master of Engineering or Master of Project Management at the University of Queensland. This course was specifically designed to help students plan their continuing professional development, while developing professional skills such as communication, ethical reasoning, critical judgement and the need for sustainable development. The course utilised a work integrated learning pedagogy applied within a formal learning environment, and followed the competency based chartered membership program of Engineers Australia, the peak professional body of engineers in Australia. The course was developed and analysed using an action learning approach. The main research question was “Can extra teaching and learning activities be developed that will simulate workplace learning?” The students continually assessed and reflected upon their current competencies, skills and abilities, and planed for the future attainment of specific competencies which they identified as important to their future careers. Various evaluation methods, including surveys before and after the course, were used to evaluate the action learning intervention. It was found that the assessment developed for the course was one of the most important factors, not only in driving student learning, as is widely accepted, but also in changing the students’ understandings and acceptance of the need for continuous professional development. The students also felt that the knowledge, values and skills they developed would be beneficial for their future careers, as they were developed within the context of their own professional development, rather than to just get through the course. © 2005, American Society for Engineering Education

Evaluating productive efficiency:comparative study of commercial banks in Gulf countries

Financial institutes are an integral part of any modern economy. In the 1970s and 1980s, Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries made significant progress in financial deepening and in building a modern financial infrastructure. This study aims to evaluate the performance (efficiency) of financial institutes (banking sector) in GCC countries. Since, the selected variables include negative data for some banks and positive for others, and the available evaluation methods are not helpful in this case, so we developed a Semi Oriented Radial Model to perform this evaluation. Furthermore, since the SORM evaluation result provides a limited information for any decision maker (bankers, investors, etc...), we proposed a second stage analysis using classification and regression (C&R) method to get further results combining SORM results with other environmental data (Financial, economical and political) to set rules for the efficient banks, hence, the results will be useful for bankers in order to improve their bank performance and to the investors, maximize their returns. Mainly there are two approaches to evaluate the performance of Decision Making Units (DMUs), under each of them there are different methods with different assumptions. Parametric approach is based on the econometric regression theory and nonparametric approach is based on a mathematical linear programming theory. Under the nonparametric approaches, there are two methods: Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) and Free Disposal Hull (FDH). While there are three methods under the parametric approach: Stochastic Frontier Analysis (SFA); Thick Frontier Analysis (TFA) and Distribution-Free Analysis (DFA). The result shows that DEA and SFA are the most applicable methods in banking sector, but DEA is seem to be most popular between researchers. However DEA as SFA still facing many challenges, one of these challenges is how to deal with negative data, since it requires the assumption that all the input and output values are non-negative, while in many applications negative outputs could appear e.g. losses in contrast with profit. Although there are few developed Models under DEA to deal with negative data but we believe that each of them has it is own limitations, therefore we developed a Semi-Oriented-Radial-Model (SORM) that could handle the negativity issue in DEA. The application result using SORM shows that the overall performance of GCC banking is relatively high (85.6%). Although, the efficiency score is fluctuated over the study period (1998-2007) due to the second Gulf War and to the international financial crisis, but still higher than the efficiency score of their counterpart in other countries. Banks operating in Saudi Arabia seem to be the highest efficient banks followed by UAE, Omani and Bahraini banks, while banks operating in Qatar and Kuwait seem to be the lowest efficient banks; this is because these two countries are the most affected country in the second Gulf War. Also, the result shows that there is no statistical relationship between the operating style (Islamic or Conventional) and bank efficiency. Even though there is no statistical differences due to the operational style, but Islamic bank seem to be more efficient than the Conventional bank, since on average their efficiency score is 86.33% compare to 85.38% for Conventional banks. Furthermore, the Islamic banks seem to be more affected by the political crisis (second Gulf War), whereas Conventional banks seem to be more affected by the financial crisis.