A macroeconomic analysis of adaptation to climate change impacts on forests in India

We examine the potential for adaptation to climate change in Indian forests, and derive the macroeconomic implications of forest impacts and adaptation in India. The study is conducted by integrating results from the dynamic global vegetation model IBIS and the computable general equilibrium model GRACE-IN, which estimates macroeconomic implications for six zones of India. By comparing a reference scenario without climate change with a climate impact scenario based on the IPCC A2-scenario, we find major variations in the pattern of change across zones. Biomass stock increases in all zones but the Central zone. The increase in biomass growth is smaller, and declines in one more zone, South zone, despite higher stock. In the four zones with increases in biomass growth, harvest increases by only approximately 1/3 of the change in biomass growth. This is due to two market effects of increased biomass growth. One is that an increase in biomass growth encourages more harvest given other things being equal. The other is that more harvest leads to higher supply of timber, which lowers market prices. As a result, also the rent on forested land decreases. The lower prices and rent discourage more harvest even though they may induce higher demand, which increases the pressure on harvest. In a less perfect world than the model describes these two effects may contribute to an increase in the risk of deforestation because of higher biomass growth. Furthermore, higher harvest demands more labor and capital input in the forestry sector. Given total supply of labor and capital, this increases the cost of production in all the other sectors, although very little indeed. Forestry dependent communities with declining biomass growth may, however, experience local unemployment as a result.

Evaluation and improvement of generators reactive power margins in interconnected power systems

The amount of reactive power margin available in a system determines its proximity to voltage instability under normal and emergency conditions. More the reactive power margin, better is the systems security and vice-versa. A hypothetical way of improving the reactive margin of a synchronous generator is to reduce the real power generation within its mega volt-ampere (MVA) ratings. This real power generation reduction will affect its power contract agreements entered in the electricity market. Owing to this, the benefit that the generator foregoes will have to be compensated by paying them some lost opportunity cost. The objective of this study is three fold. Firstly, the reactive power margins of the generators are evaluated. Secondly, they are improved using a reactive power optimization technique and optimally placed unified power flow controllers. Thirdly, the reactive power capacity exchanges along the tie-lines are evaluated under base case and improved conditions. A detailed analysis of all the reactive power sources and sinks scattered throughout the network is carried out in the study. Studies are carried out on a real life, three zone, 72-bus equivalent Indian southern grid considering normal and contingency conditions with base case operating point and optimised results presented.

Los Modelos Implícitos de Valoración de Opciones

[ES] Los modelos implícitos constituyen uno de los enfoques de valoración de opciones alternativos al modelo de Black-Scholes que ha conocido un mayor desarrollo en los últimos años. Dentro de este planteamiento existen diferentes alternativas: los árboles implícitos, los modelos con función de volatilidad determinista y los modelos con función de volatilidad implícita. Todos ellos se construyen a partir de una estimación de la distribución de probabilidades riesgo-neutral del precio futuro del activo subyacente, congruente con los precios de mercado de las opciones negociadas. En consecuencia, los modelos implícitos proporcionan buenos resultados en la valoración de opciones dentro de la muestra. Sin embargo, su comportamiento como instrumento de predicción para opciones fuera de muestra no resulta satisfactorio. En este artículo se analiza la medida en la que este enfoque contribuye a la mejora de la valoración de opciones, tanto desde un punto de vista teórico como práctico.

An austerity-driven energy reform

In July 2013, the government approved a major overhaul of the Spanish electricity sector to correct existing imbalances that have led to an exponential increase of regulated electricity costs and a huge tariff deficit. The reform addresses the problem of financial sustainability of the sector, severely affected by weak demand and overcapacity. Previous regulation introduced in 2012 and early 2013, also aimed at restoring financial stability of the sector, failed to correct the tariff shortfall and new regulatory measures were needed to reduce the 4.5 billion euros forecasted deficit for 2013. The frequent change of the rules of the game in the sector has created regulatory uncertainty, more so as it is not clear that the present reform will be sufficient to eliminate the deficit. Moreover, the government has left the door open to new regulation that would deal with the price formation system. In general, short run financial criteria have prevailed, while efficiency principles and a long run perspective have little weight in the reform.

Extractive institutions in colonial Africa

A common explanation for African current underdevelopment is the extractive character of institutions established during the colonial period. Yet, since colonial extraction is hard to quantify and its exact mechanisms are not well understood, we still do not know precisely how colonial institutions affect economic growth today. In this project, I study this issue by focusing on the peculiar structure of trade and labor policies employed by the French colonizers.

First, I analyze how trade monopsonies and coercive labor institutions reduced African gains from trade during the colonial period. By using new data on prices to agricultural producers and labor institutions in French Africa, I show that (1) the monopsonistic character of colonial trade implied a reduction in prices to producers far below world market prices; (2) coercive labor institutions allowed the colonizers to reduce prices even further; (3) as a consequence, colonial extraction cut African gains from trade by over 60%.

Given the importance of labor institutions, I then focus on their origin by analyzing the colonial governments' incentives to choose between coerced and free labor. I argue that the choice of institutions was affected more by the properties of exported commodities, such as prices and economies of scale, than by the characteristics of colonies, such indigenous population density and ease of settlement for the colonizers.

Finally, I study the long-term effects of colonial trade monopsonies and coercive labor institutions. By combining archival data on prices in the French colonies with maps of crop suitability, I show that the extent to which prices to agricultural producers were reduced with respect to world market prices is strongly negatively correlated with current regional development, as proxied by luminosity data from satellite images. The evidence suggests that colonial extraction affected subsequent growth by reducing development in rural areas in favor of a urban elite. The differential impact in rural and urban areas can be the reason why trade monopsonies and extractive institutions persisted long after independence.

Una aproximación al sector eléctrico

Español:Este TFG pretende exponer de un modo sencillo el mercado eléctrico español. Se trata de un tema de elevada complejidad y gran extensión. Con el fin de alcanzar una idea clara, hemos decidido centrarnos en los puntos de mayor relevancia. En las secciones siguientes abordamos cuestiones relativas al mercado mayorista (pool) y minorista español así como la incipiente reforma eléctrica llevada a cabo por el Gobierno. Después de una breve Introducción, la sección 2 enumera una serie de términos que se utilizan con frecuencia en esta área. La sección 3 proporciona algunos antecedentes sobre el sector eléctrico. La sección 4 se refiere al mercado mayorista, en el cual se realiza la compra-venta diaria de electricidad. En él participan los productores, los distribuidores y los comercializadores de electricidad, así como los consumidores cualificados de energía eléctrica. Dentro de éste nos encontramos el mercado a plazo (o forward), el mercado diario (o spot) y el mercado a corto plazo (o de ajuste). La sección 5 trata del mercado minorista, su diseño y composición. Aquí, las empresas encargadas de comercializar energía (que compran en el mercado mayorista a las empresas generadoras) se la venden a los consumidores finales. En la sección 6 se aborda la Reforma Eléctrica, aclarando los cambios sufridos desde su implantación. Los hechos más llamativos a este respecto son: la eliminación de las subastas CESUR y el cambio de la Tarifa de Último Recurso (TUR) a un Precio Voluntario para el Pequeño Consumidor (PVPC). Por último, hay una sección final con las principales conclusiones.

Essays in revealed preference theory and behavioral economics

Time, risk, and attention are all integral to economic decision making. The aim of this work is to understand those key components of decision making using a variety of approaches: providing axiomatic characterizations to investigate time discounting, generating measures of visual attention to infer consumers' intentions, and examining data from unique field settings.

Chapter 2, co-authored with Federico Echenique and Kota Saito, presents the first revealed-preference characterizations of exponentially-discounted utility model and its generalizations. My characterizations provide non-parametric revealed-preference tests. I apply the tests to data from a recent experiment, and find that the axiomatization delivers new insights on a dataset that had been analyzed by traditional parametric methods.

Chapter 3, co-authored with Min Jeong Kang and Colin Camerer, investigates whether "pre-choice" measures of visual attention improve in prediction of consumers' purchase intentions. We measure participants' visual attention using eyetracking or mousetracking while they make hypothetical as well as real purchase decisions. I find that different patterns of visual attention are associated with hypothetical and real decisions. I then demonstrate that including information on visual attention improves prediction of purchase decisions when attention is measured with mousetracking.

Chapter 4 investigates individuals' attitudes towards risk in a high-stakes environment using data from a TV game show, Jeopardy!. I first quantify players' subjective beliefs about answering questions correctly. Using those beliefs in estimation, I find that the representative player is risk averse. I then find that trailing players tend to wager more than "folk" strategies that are known among the community of contestants and fans, and this tendency is related to their confidence. I also find gender differences: male players take more risk than female players, and even more so when they are competing against two other male players.

Chapter 5, co-authored with Colin Camerer, investigates the dynamics of the favorite-longshot bias (FLB) using data on horse race betting from an online exchange that allows bettors to trade "in-play." I find that probabilistic forecasts implied by market prices before start of the races are well-calibrated, but the degree of FLB increases significantly as the events approach toward the end.

Valuation of Wind Energy Projects: A Real Options Approach

We address the valuation of an operating wind farm and the finite-lived option to invest in it under different reward/support schemes: a constant feed-in tariff, a premium on top of the electricity market price (either a fixed premium or a variable subsidy such as a renewable obligation certificate or ROC), and a transitory subsidy, among others. Futures contracts on electricity with ever longer maturities enable market-based valuations to be undertaken. The model considers up to three sources of uncertainty: the electricity price, the level of wind generation, and the certificate (ROC) price where appropriate. When analytical solutions are lacking, we resort to a trinomial lattice combined with Monte Carlo simulation; we also use a two-dimensional binomial lattice when uncertainty in the ROC price is considered. Our data set refers to the UK. The numerical results show the impact of several factors involved in the decision to invest: the subsidy per MWh generated, the initial lump-sum subsidy, the maturity of the investment option, and electricity price volatility. Different combinations of variables can help bring forward investments in wind generation. One-off policies, e.g., a transitory initial subsidy, seem to have a stronger effect than a fixed premium per MWh produced.

Review of the California Trawl Fishery for Pacific Ocean Shrimp, Pandalus jordani, from 1992 to 2007

The commercial bottom trawl fishery for Pacific ocean shrimp, Pandalus jordani, or pink shrimp, operates mostly off the west coast of the contiguous United States. The California portion of the fishery has not been thoroughly documented or reviewed since the 1991 fishing season, despite its fluctuating more during the last 16 years (1992–2007) than at any other period in its 56-year history. We used fishery-dependent data, California Department of Fish and Game commercial landing receipts and logbook data, to analyze trends and review the California pink shrimp trawl fishery from 1992 to 2007. In particular, we focus on the most recent years of the fishery (2001–07) to highlight the gear developments and key management measures implemented in the fishery. The fishery is primarily driven by market conditions and is highly regulated by both state and Federal management agencies. Several key regulatory measures implemented during this decade have had significant effects on the fishery. For example, the requirement of a Bycatch Reduction Device on trawl nets targeting pink shrimp was approved in 2001 and has greatly reduced levels of finfish bycatch. Fishery production has declined, particularly in recent years, and may be attributed to decreased market prices, followed by reduced fishermen participation; both of which are related to changes in the processing sector and demand for the product.

O mercado da tilápia - 4º trimestre de 2015.

Comportamento do mercado de varejo nacional. Evolução dos preços. A abertura do mercado brasileiro à tilápia chinesa. O setor externo.

Improving the performance of a Mediterranean demersal fishery towards societal objectives beyond MSY

Mediterranean demersal fisheries are highly multispecific and many of their target stocks are overexploited. In addition, rocketing fuel costs and low market prices of traditionally high-value species are challenging the viability of fisheries. Here, based on the numeric results of a simulation model, we conclude that this situation can be remedied by reducing both fishing mortality and fishing costs. According to our model results, fishing effort reductions of 48–71% would improve the health of fish stocks while increasing the economic profits of Mallorca islands bottom trawl fishery to as much as 1.9 M€ (146% higher than current profits). If all fish stocks were exploited at their MSY (or below) level, the reduction in fishing effort would have to be of 71% from current values. If equilibrium profits from the fishery were to be maximized (MEY), fishing effort would need to be reduced by 48%. These results must be taken with caution due the many sources of uncertainty of our analysis. The modeling tools used to estimate these values are conditional to the adequate treatment of two sources of uncertainty that are particularly problematic in Mediterranean fisheries: insufficiently known recruitment variability and lack of periodic evaluations of the state of many species. Our results show that fishing effort reductions would produce economic yield gains after a period of transition. Further studies on the benefits of changing the size-selection pattern of fisheries, on better estimation of stock–recruitment relationships and on better quantifications of the contribution of secondary species to these fisheries, are expected to improve the scientific recommendations for Mediterranean demersal fisheries toward sustainability principles.

Improving the performance of a Mediterranean demersal fishery toward economic objectives beyond MSY

Mediterranean demersal fisheries are highly multispecific and many of their target stocks are overexploited. In addition, rocketing fuel costs and low market prices of traditionally high-value species are challenging the viability of fisheries. Here, based on the numeric results of a simulation model, we conclude that this situation can be remedied by reducing both fishing mortality and fishing costs. According to our model results, fishing effort reductions of 48-71% would improve the health of fish stocks while increasing the economic profits of Mallorca islands bottom trawl fishery to as much as 1.9 M(sic) (146% higher than current profits). If all fish stocks were exploited at their MSY (or below) level, the reduction in fishing effort would have to be of 71% from current values. If equilibrium profits from the fishery were to be maximized (MEY), fishing effort would need to be reduced by 48%. These results must be taken with caution due the many sources of uncertainty of our analysis. The modeling tools used to estimate these values are conditional to the adequate treatment of two sources of uncertainty that are particularly problematic in Mediterranean fisheries: insufficiently known recruitment variability and lack of periodic evaluations of the state of many species. Our results show that fishing effort reductions would produce economic yield gains after a period of transition. Further studies on the benefits of changing the size-selection pattern of fisheries, on better estimation of stock recruitment relationships and on better quantifications of the contribution of secondary species to these fisheries, are expected to improve the scientific recommendations for Mediterranean demersal fisheries toward sustainability principles.

Can traditional harvesting methods for cockles be accommodated in a Special Area of Conservation?

The European Natura 2000 project attempts to balance conservation and exploitation by permitting activities that do not affect the conservation status of designated sites. Given the scale of Natura 2000, guidelines are needed to facilitate the drafting of simple site management plans. This need is particularly acute for traditional harvesting methods for which there is usually strong local opposition to the imposition of controls. These issues were examined in Strangford Lough, a special area of conservation where cockles have traditionally been harvested by hand-raking. Raking was found not to affect the ability of cockles to rebury. There were significant reductions in Zostera biomass when raking was carried out within eelgrass beds (a 90% reduction in biomass available to winter migrant birds from summer raking). Traditional harvesting methods could therefore be accepted in Strangford as long as Zostera beds are avoided. A relatively low intensity of harvesting activity in Strangford Lough probably reflects low cockle densities (average 91.8 m(-2)), with the most economically valuable individuals at some distance from points of access to the shore. An economically feasible management plan could sanction traditional harvesting and result in the implementation of more resource-intensive management only if increases in cockle stocks and market prices stimulate large increases in harvesting activity.

Methods in wind power prediction & forecasting

Globally on-shore wind power has seen considerable growth in all grid systems. In the coming decade off-shore wind power is also expected to expand rapidly. Wind power is variable and intermittent over various time scales because it is weather dependent. Therefore wind power integration into traditional grids needs additional power system and electricity market planning and management for system balancing. This extra system balancing means that there is additional system costs associated with wind power assimilation. Wind power forecasting and prediction methods are used by system operators to plan unit commitment, scheduling and dispatch and by electricity traders and wind farm owners to maximize profit. Accurate wind power forecasting and prediction has numerous challenges. This paper presents a study of the existing and possible future methods used in wind power forecasting and prediction for both on-shore and off-shore wind farms.

Electrical energy storage and Smart Grid technologies to integrate the next generation of Renewable Power Systems

The growth of renewable power sources, distributed generation and the potential for alternative fuelled modes of transport such as electric vehicles has led to concerns over the ability of existing grid systems to facilitate such diverse portfolio mixes in already congested power systems. Internationally the growth in renewable energy sources is driven by government policy targets associated with the uncertainties of fossil fuel supplies, environmental issues and a move towards energy independence. Power grids were traditionally designed as vertically integrated centrally managed entities with fully dispatchable generating plant. Renewable power sources, distributed generation and alternative fuelled vehicles will place these power systems under additional stresses and strains due to their different operational characteristics. Energy storage and smart grid technologies are widely proposed as the tools to integrate these future diverse portfolio mixes within the more conventional power systems. The choice in these technologies is determined not only by their location on the grid system, but by the diversification in the power portfolio mix, the electricity market and the operational demands. This paper presents a high level technical and economic overview of the role and relevance of electrical energy storage and smart grid technologies in the next generation of renewable power systems.