Rethinking economy-wide rebound measures: an unbiased proposal

In spite of having been first introduced in the last half of the ninetieth century, the debate about the possible rebound effects from energy efficiency improvements is still an open question in the economic literature. This paper contributes to the existing research on this issue proposing an unbiased measure for economy-wide rebound effects. The novelty of this economy-wide rebound measure stems from the fact that not only actual energy savings but also potential energy savings are quantified under general equilibrium conditions. Our findings indicate that the use of engineering savings instead of general equilibrium potential savings downward biases economy-wide rebound effects and upward-biases backfire effects. The discrepancies between the traditional indicator and our proposed measure are analysed in the context of the Spanish economy.

Misallocation of capital in a model of endogenous financial intermediation and insurance

In this paper we analyze productivity and welfare losses from capital misallocation in a general equilibrium model of occupational choice and endogenous financial intermediation. We study the effects of borrowing and lending, insurance, and risk sharing on the optimal allocation of resources. We find that financial markets together with general equilibrium effects have large impact on entrepreneurs' entry and firm-size decisions. Efficiency gains are increasing in the quality of financial markets, particularly in their ability to alleviate a financing constraint by providing insurance against idiosyncratic risk.

A never-ending debate: Demand versus supply water policies. A CGE analysis for Catalonia

Water scarcity is a long-standing problem in Catalonia, as there are significant differences in the spatial and temporal distribution of water through the territory. There has consequently been a debate for many years about whether the solution to water scarcity must be considered in terms of efficiency or equity, the role that the public sector must play and the role that market-based instruments should play in water management. The aim of this paper is to use a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model to analyze the advantages and disadvantages associated with different policy instruments, from both a supply and a demand viewpoint, which can be applied to water management in Catalonia. We also introduce an ecological sector in our CGE model, allowing us to analyze the environmental impact of the alternative policies simulated. The calibration of the exogenous variables of the CGE model is performed by using a Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) for the Catalan economy with 2001 data. The results suggest that taking into account the principle of sustainability of the resource, the policy debate between supply and demand in water policies is obsolete, and a new combination of policies is required to respect the different values associated with water. Keywords: Water Policies; Computable General Equilibrium Model; Economic Effects; Environmental Effects.

Simulating the Impact of Sectorial Productivity Gains on Two Regional Economies: Key Sectors from a Supply Side Perspective

In this paper we simulate and analyse the economic impact that sectorial productivity gains have on two regional Spanish economies (Catalonia and Extremadura). In particular we study the quantitative effect that each sector’s productivity gain has on household welfare (real disposable income and equivalent variation), on the consumption price indices and factor relative prices, on real production (GDP) and on the government’s net income (net taxation revenues of social transfers to households). The analytical approach consists of a computable general equilibrium model, in which we assume perfect competition and cleared markets, including factor markets. All the parameters and exogenous variables of the model are calibrated by means of two social accounting matrices, one for each region under study. The results allow us to identify those sectors with the greatest impact on consumer welfare as the key sectors in the regional economies. Keywords: Productivity gains, key sectors, computable general equilibrium

Agriculture, technological change and environmental sustainability: Looking for a win-win water policy strategy

This paper analyses the effects that technological changes in agriculture would have on environmental, social and economic indicators. Specifically, our study is focused on two alternative technological improvements: the modernization of water transportation systems versus the increase in the total factor productivity of agriculture. Using a computable general equilibrium model for the Catalan economy, our results suggest that a water policy that leads to greater economic efficiency is not necessarily optimal if we consider social or environmental criteria. Moreover, improving environmental sustainability depends less on the type of technological change than on the institutional framework in which technological change occurs. Keywords: agricultural technological changes, computable general equilibrium model, economic impact, water policy

Supply Multipliers in Two Regional Economies

This paper focuses on the analysis of the economic impact that sectorial total factor productivity – or valued added - gains have on two regional Spanish economies (Catalonia and Extremadura). In particular it is studied the quantitative effect that each sector’s valued added injections has on household welfare (real disposable income), on the consumption price indices and factor relative prices, on real production (GDP) and on the government and foreign net income. To do that, we introduce the concept of supply multiplier. The analytical approach consists of a computable general equilibrium model, in which it is assumed perfect competition and cleared markets of goods and factors. All the parameters and exogenous variables of the model are calibrated by means of two social accounting matrices, one for each region under study. The results allow identifying those sectors with the greatest multipliers impact on consumer welfare as the key sectors in the regional economies. Keywords: efficiency gains, supply multipliers, key sectors, computable general equilibrium. JEL Classification: C68, R13.

Procompetitive Losses from Trade

We argue that the procompetitive effect of international trade may bring about significant welfare costs that have not been recognized. We formulate a stylized general equilibrium model with a continuum of imperfectly competitive industries to show that, under plausible conditions, a trade-induced increase in competition can actually amplify monopoly distortions. This happens because trade, while lowering the average level of market power, may increase its cross-sectoral dispersion. Using data on US industries, we document a dramatic increase in the dispersion of market power overtime. We also show evidence that trade might be responsible for it and provide some quantifications of the induced welfare cost. Our results suggest that, to avoid some unpleasant effects of globalization, trade integration should be accompanied by procompetitive reforms (i.e., deregulation) in the nontraded sectors.

Entry regulation and intersectoral reallocation

We study how restrictions on firm entry affect intersectoral factor reallocation when openeconomies experience global economic shocks. In our theoretical framework, countries trade freelyin a range of differentiated sectors that are subject to country-specific and global shocks. Entryrestrictions are modeled as an upper bound on the introduction of new differentiated goods followingshocks. Prices and quantities adjust to clear international goods markets, and wages adjustto clear national labor markets. We show that in general equilibrium, countries with tighter entryrestrictions see less factor reallocation compared to the frictionless benchmark. In our empiricalwork, we compare sectoral employment reallocation across countries in the 1980s and 1990s withproxies for frictionless benchmark reallocation. Our results indicate that the gap between actualand frictionless reallocation is greater in countries where it takes longer to start a firm.

Monetary policy misspecification in VAR models

We examine the effects of extracting monetary policy disturbances with semi-structural and structural VARs, using data generated bya limited participation model under partial accommodative and feedback rules. We find that, in general, misspecification is substantial: short run coefficients often have wrong signs; impulse responses and variance decompositions give misleadingrepresentations of the dynamics. Explanations for the results and suggestions for macroeconomic practice are provided.

Corporate finance and the monetary transmission mechanism

This paper analyzes the transmission mechanisms of monetarypolicy in a general equilibrium model of securities marketsand banking with asymmetric information. Banks' optimal asset/liability policy is such that in equilibrium capital adequacy constraints are always binding. Asymmetric information about banks' net worth adds a cost to outside equity capital, which limits the extent to which banks can relax their capital constraint. In this context monetarypolicy does not affect bank lending through changes in bank liquidity. Rather, it has the effect of changing theaggregate composition of financing by firms. The model also produces multiple equilibria, one of which displays all the features of a "credit crunch". Thus, monetary policy can also have large effects when it induces a shift from one equilibrium to the other.

Aggregate consequences of limited contract enforceability

We study a general equilibrium model in which entrepreneurs finance investment with optimal financial contracts. Because of enforceability problems, contracts are constrained efficient. We show that limited enforceability amplifies the impact of technological innovations on aggregate output. More generally, we show that lower enforceability of contracts will be associated with greater aggregate volatility. A key assumption for this result is that defaulting entrepreneurs are not excluded from the market.

Stabilization versus insurance: Welfare effects of procyclical taxation under incomplete markets

We construct and calibrate a general equilibrium business cycle model with unemployment and precautionary saving. We compute the cost of business cycles and locate the optimum in a set of simple cyclical fiscal policies. Our economy exhibits productivity shocks, giving firms an incentive to hire more when productivity is high. However, business cycles make workers' income riskier, both by increasing the unconditional probability of unusuallylong unemployment spells, and by making wages more variable, and therefore they decrease social welfare by around one-fourth or one-third of 1% of consumption. Optimal fiscal policy offsets the cycle, holding unemployment benefits constant but varying the tax rate procyclically to smooth hiring. By running a deficit of 4% to 5% of output in recessions, the government eliminates half the variation in the unemployment rate, most of the variation in workers'aggregate consumption, and most of the welfare cost of business cycles.

Trade, markup heterogeneity and misallocations

We argue that the procompetitive effect of international trade may bring about significant welfare costs that have not been recognized. We formulate a stylized general equilibrium model with a continuum of imperfectly competitive industries to show that, under plausible conditions, a trade-induced increase in competition can actually amplify monopoly distortions. This happens because trade, while lowering the average level of market power, may increase its cross-sectoral dispersion. Using data on US industries, we document a dramatic increase in the dispersion of market power overtime. We also show evidence thattrade might be responsible for it and provide some quantifications of the induced welfare cost. Our results suggest that, to avoid some unpleasant effects of globalization, trade integration should be accompanied by procompetitive reforms (i.e., deregulation) in the nontraded sectors.

The intra-generational redistributive effects of social security

This paper provides a quantitative evaluation of the intra--cohortredistributive elements of the United States social security system in thecontext of a computable general equilibrium model. I determine how thewell--being of individuals that differ across {\sl gender, race} and {\sl education}is affected by government social security policy. I find that females, whitesand non--college graduates stand less to gain (lose) from reductions(increases) in the size of social security than males, non--whites andcollege graduates, respectively. Differences in mortality risk and laborproductivity translate into differences in the magnitudes of capitalaccumulation and labor supply distortions, that are responsible for theobserved welfare difference between types. Results imply that the currentprogram is lifetime progressive across gender and education, yet lifetimeregressive across race.

On Rothschild-Stiglitz as competitive pooling

Dubey and Geanakoplos [2002] have developed a theory of competitive pooling, which incorporates adverse selection and signaling into general equilibrium. By recasting the Rothschild-Stiglitz model of insurance in this framework, they find that a separating equilibrium always exists and is unique.We prove that their uniqueness result is not a consequence of the framework, but rather of their definition of refined equilibria. When other types of perturbations are used, the model allows for many pooling allocations to be supported as such: in particular, this is the case for pooling allocations that Pareto dominate the separating equilibrium.