Morbilidade global das colostomias derivativas temporárias na abordagem cirúrgica do cancro do recto

Trabalho Final do Curso de Mestrado Integrado em Medicina, Faculdade de Medicina, Universidade de Lisboa, 2014

Dois ensaios em finanças

In the first chapter, we test some stochastic volatility models using options on the S&P 500 index. First, we demonstrate the presence of a short time-scale, on the order of days, and a long time-scale, on the order of months, in the S&P 500 volatility process using the empirical structure function, or variogram. This result is consistent with findings of previous studies. The main contribution of our paper is to estimate the two time-scales in the volatility process simultaneously by using nonlinear weighted least-squares technique. To test the statistical significance of the rates of mean-reversion, we bootstrap pairs of residuals using the circular block bootstrap of Politis and Romano (1992). We choose the block-length according to the automatic procedure of Politis and White (2004). After that, we calculate a first-order correction to the Black-Scholes prices using three different first-order corrections: (i) a fast time scale correction; (ii) a slow time scale correction; and (iii) a multiscale (fast and slow) correction. To test the ability of our model to price options, we simulate options prices using five different specifications for the rates or mean-reversion. We did not find any evidence that these asymptotic models perform better, in terms of RMSE, than the Black-Scholes model. In the second chapter, we use Brazilian data to compute monthly idiosyncratic moments (expected skewness, realized skewness, and realized volatility) for equity returns and assess whether they are informative for the cross-section of future stock returns. Since there is evidence that lagged skewness alone does not adequately forecast skewness, we estimate a cross-sectional model of expected skewness that uses additional predictive variables. Then, we sort stocks each month according to their idiosyncratic moments, forming quintile portfolios. We find a negative relationship between higher idiosyncratic moments and next-month stock returns. The trading strategy that sells stocks in the top quintile of expected skewness and buys stocks in the bottom quintile generates a significant monthly return of about 120 basis points. Our results are robust across sample periods, portfolio weightings, and to Fama and French (1993)’s risk adjustment factors. Finally, we identify a return reversal of stocks with high idiosyncratic skewness. Specifically, stocks with high idiosyncratic skewness have high contemporaneous returns. That tends to reverse, resulting in negative abnormal returns in the following month.

A dinâmica da taxa de câmbio no Brasil face às operações swap (2002-2015)

This dissertation investigates, based on the Post-Keynesian theory and on its concept of monetary economy of production, the exchange rate behavior of the Brazilian Real in the presence of Brazilian Central Bank's interventions by means of the so-called swap transactions over 2002-2015. Initially, the work analyzes the essential properties of an open monetary economy of production and, thereafter, it presents the basic propositions of the Post-Keynesian view on the exchange rate determination, highlighting the properties of foreign exchange markets and the peculiarities of the Brazilian position into the international monetary and financial system. The research, thereby, accounts for the various segments of the Brazilian foreign exchange market. To accomplish its purpose, we first do a literature review of the Post-Keynesian literature about the topic. Then, we undertake empirical exams of the exchange rate determination using two statistical methods. On the one hand, to measure the volatility of exchange rate, we estimate Auto-regressive Conditional Heteroscedastic (ARCH) and Generalized Auto-regressive Conditional Heteroscedastic (GARCH) models. On the other hand, to measure the variance of the exchange rate in relation to real, financial variables, and the swaps, we estimate a Vector Auto-regression (VAR) model. Both experiments are performed for the nominal and real effective exchange rates. The results show that the swaps respond to exchange rate movements, trying to offset its volatility. This reveals that the exchange rate is, at least in a certain magnitude, sensitive to swaps transactions conducted by the Central Bank. In addition, another empirical result is that the real effective exchange rate responds more to the swaps auctions than the nominal rate.

Avaliação da soldagem GMAW mecanizada e automatizada para união de dutos utilizando fontes convencional e com controle de curto- circuito

Welding is one of the most employed process for joining steel pipes. Although, manual welding is still the most used one, mechanized version and even automatized one have increased its demand. Thus, this work deals with girth welding of API 5L X65 pipes with 8” of nominal diameter and 8.0 mm thickness, beveled with V-30º narrow gap. Torch is moved by a bug carrier (mechanized welding) and further the parameters are controlled as a function of angular position (automatized welding). Welding parameters are presented for filling the joint with two-passes (root and filling/capping passes). Parameters for the root pass were extracted from previous author´s work with weldments carried out in plates, but validated in this work for pipe welding. GMAW processes were assessed with short-circuit metal transfer in both conventional and derivative modes using different technologies (RMD, STT and CMT). After the parameter determination, mechanical testing was performed for welding qualification (uniaxial tension, face and root bending, nick break, Charpy V-notch impact, microhardness and macrograph). The initially obtained results for RMD and CMT were acceptable for all testing and, in a second moment, also for the STT. However, weld beads carried out by using the conventional process failed and revealed the existence of lack of fusion, which required further parametrization. Thus, a Parameter-Variation System for Girth Welding (SVP) was designed and built to allow varying the welding parameters as a function of angular position by using an inclinometer. The parameters were set for each of the three angular positions (flat, vertical downhill and overhead). By using such equipment and approach, the conventional process with parameter variation allowed reducing the welding time for joint accomplishment of the order of 38% for the root pass and 30% for the filling/capping pass.

Política de promoção da exportação : um olhar sobre a evolução da cultura de melão do Rio Grande do Norte

Some sectors in Brazil are earning notoriety in the international market, configuring itself in dynamic areas for the Country. The most typical case is the agribusiness. Rio Grande do Norte state has important role, because 90% of the output of the melon exported by Brazil is produced at Assu/Mossoró. The present work planned to verify the evolution of the culture of the melon produced at Assu/Mossoró area, from 1990 to 2003. Through descriptive research, utilizing the case study and documentary analysis of secondary data this work showed the evolution of the area reaped of melon in the pole Assu/Mossoró, the quantity produced of melon and of the value of the output of the melon between 1990 and 2003. The research verified that all of the factors studied show growth during the analyzed period, showing up the importance of the agribusiness for the region. However the analysis shows the vulnerability of the sector concerning external macroeconomics factors, such as the exchange rates. Showing the importance and/or dependence of the producers for public actions to development of the culture, that might be on areas like infrastructure, economics or taxes

Enzymatic upgrading of eucalypt paper-grade kraft pulp within dissolving pulp production

Dissolving-grade pulps are commonly used for the production of cellulose derivatives and regenerated cellulose. High cellulose content, low content of non-cellulosic material, high brightness, a uniform molecular weight distribution and high cellulose reactivity are the key features that determine the quality of a dissolving pulp. The first part of this work was an optimization study regarding the application of selected enzymes in different stages of a new purification process recently developed in Novozymes for purifying an eucalypt Kraft pulp into dissolving pulp, as an alternative to the pre-hydrolysis kraft (PHK) process. In addition, a viscosity reduction was achieved by cellulase (endoglucanase) treatment in the beginning of the sequence, while the GH11 and GH10 xylanases contributed to boost the brightness of the final pulp. The second part of the work aimed at exploring different auxiliary enzyme activities together with a key xylanase towards further removal of recalcitrant hemicelluloses from a partially bleached Eucalypt Kraft pulp. The resistant fraction (ca. 6% xylan in pulp) was not hydrolysable by the different combinations of enzymes tested. Production of a dissolving pulp was successful when using a cold caustic extraction (CCE) stage in the end of the sequence O-X-DHCE-X-HCE-D-CCE. The application of enzymes improved process efficiency. The main requirements for the production of a dissolving pulp (suitable for viscose making) were fulfilled: 2,7% residual xylan, 92,4% of brightness, a viscosity within the values of a commercial dissolving pulp and increased reactivity.

Incidencia de ventriculitis relacionada a sistemas de derivación externa en el servicio de neurocirugía del Hospital General del Instituto Salvadoreño del Seguro Social. Enero 2013 a Diciembre 2014

El presente trabajo de investigación tiene como finalidad evaluar la incidencia de ventriculitis así como los agentes patógenos asociados en aquellos pacientes con ventriculostomía ingresados en el servicio de neurocirugía del Instituto Salvadoreño del Seguro Social (ISSS) durante el periodo de enero de 2013 a diciembre 2014. La metodología será la recopilación de datos a través de la revisión de expedientes clínicos de pacientes ingresados en el servicio de neurocirugía que hayan sido ingresados durante el periodo de enero 2013 a diciembre 2014; y que además se les haya realizado ventriculostomía dentro de las instalaciones de la institución. Con los datos obtenidos se podrá establecer la incidencia de paciente con dicha infección, así como la flora bacteriana asociada. Será de suma importancia el resultado de datos para poder contribuir al registro estadístico de la institución, ya que la previa instrumentalización y la aplicación de sistemas derivativos ventriculares expone al paciente a correr riesgos inherentes al procedimiento quirúrgico, a saber: daño hipotalámico, sangrado, infecciones, déficit neurológico, convulsiones, obstrucción del sistema y hasta la muerte. Al finalizar la investigación se podrá contribuir con la incidencia y conocer la flora bacteriana más común asociada, para ulteriormente poder recomendar que medidas preventivas para evitar dichas infecciones deben ser fortalecidas y la actualización en el cuidado del paciente con derivaciones ventriculares externas.

Política de promoção da exportação : um olhar sobre a evolução da cultura de melão do Rio Grande do Norte

Some sectors in Brazil are earning notoriety in the international market, configuring itself in dynamic areas for the Country. The most typical case is the agribusiness. Rio Grande do Norte state has important role, because 90% of the output of the melon exported by Brazil is produced at Assu/Mossoró. The present work planned to verify the evolution of the culture of the melon produced at Assu/Mossoró area, from 1990 to 2003. Through descriptive research, utilizing the case study and documentary analysis of secondary data this work showed the evolution of the area reaped of melon in the pole Assu/Mossoró, the quantity produced of melon and of the value of the output of the melon between 1990 and 2003. The research verified that all of the factors studied show growth during the analyzed period, showing up the importance of the agribusiness for the region. However the analysis shows the vulnerability of the sector concerning external macroeconomics factors, such as the exchange rates. Showing the importance and/or dependence of the producers for public actions to development of the culture, that might be on areas like infrastructure, economics or taxes

O que é uma crise financeira? Breve contribuito para a tipificação do conceito

As crises financeiras ocorridas entre finais do século XX e o início do século XXI atingiram proporções diversas que afetaram, de modo particular, o sistema bancário. Porém, as diversas crises consideradas revelaram ritmos desiguais, emergindo em pontos diferentes do globo e gerando impactos também desiguais. O objetivo do presente trabalho é o de discutir os diversos conceitos de crise financeira presentes na literatura. Tendo por base as crises financeiras recentes, pretendemos detetar os seus elementos constitutivos, na senda da tipificação de um conceito de crise financeira. Desde logo, o conceito de crise financeira é, por excelência, um conceito inacabado, onde concorrem múltiplas vertentes, nomeadamente de natureza bancária, monetária e cambial, que obstam à delimitação das suas fronteiras conceptuais. É certo que cada crise difere da que a antecedeu, consequência direta do tempo histórico que promove a sua particularidade. Porém, alguns elementos estão sempre presentes e que estão na base da sua ignificação. Este trabalho encontra-se organizado do seguinte modo: no capítulo 1, apresentam-se alguns contributos explicativos das causas subjacentes às crises financeiras; no capítulo 2, discutem-se os episódios de crise mais relevantes, ocorridos entre finais do século XX até ao presente; no Capítulo 3, procuraremos detetar um fio condutor entre as crises observadas, tendo em vista a tipificação de um conceito de crise, bem como discutir os seus mecanismos de previsão e de prevenção. Por fim, apresenta-se uma breve conclusão.

Exchange market pressure and incidence of currency crises in Norway

Mestrado em Economia Monetária e Financeira