Comparison of deterministic, stochastic and fuzzy logic uncertainty modelling for capacity extension projects of DI/WFI pharmaceutical plant utilities with variable/dynamic demand

The last 30 years have seen Fuzzy Logic (FL) emerging as a method either complementing or challenging stochastic methods as the traditional method of modelling uncertainty. But the circumstances under which FL or stochastic methods should be used are shrouded in disagreement, because the areas of application of statistical and FL methods are overlapping with differences in opinion as to when which method should be used. Lacking are practically relevant case studies comparing these two methods. This work compares stochastic and FL methods for the assessment of spare capacity on the example of pharmaceutical high purity water (HPW) utility systems. The goal of this study was to find the most appropriate method modelling uncertainty in industrial scale HPW systems. The results provide evidence which suggests that stochastic methods are superior to the methods of FL in simulating uncertainty in chemical plant utilities including HPW systems in typical cases whereby extreme events, for example peaks in demand, or day-to-day variation rather than average values are of interest. The average production output or other statistical measures may, for instance, be of interest in the assessment of workshops. Furthermore the results indicate that the stochastic model should be used only if found necessary by a deterministic simulation. Consequently, this thesis concludes that either deterministic or stochastic methods should be used to simulate uncertainty in chemical plant utility systems and by extension some process system because extreme events or the modelling of day-to-day variation are important in capacity extension projects. Other reasons supporting the suggestion that stochastic HPW models are preferred to FL HPW models include: 1. The computer code for stochastic models is typically less complex than a FL models, thus reducing code maintenance and validation issues. 2. In many respects FL models are similar to deterministic models. Thus the need for a FL model over a deterministic model is questionable in the case of industrial scale HPW systems as presented here (as well as other similar systems) since the latter requires simpler models. 3. A FL model may be difficult to "sell" to an end-user as its results represent "approximate reasoning" a definition of which is, however, lacking. 4. Stochastic models may be applied with some relatively minor modifications on other systems, whereas FL models may not. For instance, the stochastic HPW system could be used to model municipal drinking water systems, whereas the FL HPW model should or could not be used on such systems. This is because the FL and stochastic model philosophies of a HPW system are fundamentally different. The stochastic model sees schedule and volume uncertainties as random phenomena described by statistical distributions based on either estimated or historical data. The FL model, on the other hand, simulates schedule uncertainties based on estimated operator behaviour e.g. tiredness of the operators and their working schedule. But in a municipal drinking water distribution system the notion of "operator" breaks down. 5. Stochastic methods can account for uncertainties that are difficult to model with FL. The FL HPW system model does not account for dispensed volume uncertainty, as there appears to be no reasonable method to account for it with FL whereas the stochastic model includes volume uncertainty.

Techniques for multiple-set synchronous islanding control

Power system islanding can improve the continuity of power supply. Synchronous islanded operation enables the islanded system to remain in phase with the main power system while not electrically connected, so avoiding out-of-synchronism re-closure. Specific consideration is required for the multiple-set scenario. In this paper a suitable island management system is proposed, with the emphasis being on maximum island flexibility by allowing passive islanding transitions to occur, facilitated by intelligent control. These transitions include: island detection, identification, fragmentation, merging and return-to-mains. It can be challenging to detect these transitions while maintaining syn-chronous islanded operation. The performance of this control system in the presence of a variable wind power in-feed is also examined. A Mathworks SimPowerSystems simulation is used to investigate the performance of the island management system. The benefit and requirements for energy storage, com-munications and distribution system protection for this application are considered.

The Biospheric Project - Manchester International Festival 2013:Technical food systems

The Biospheric Project is a nested multi-scalar urban agriculture project that aims to develop sustainable food systems in disadvantaged communities, though not only physical interventions, such as the urban masterplan and neighbourhood design to the building and its roof and façade, but also through social and commercial interventions, such as community involvement, businesses and a distribution system.

The project is focused around the Biospheric Foundation, a community interest company and research think-tank whose aim is to hasten our transition to a closed cycle, low-carbon economy. Its home is Irwell house, that houses a large-scale aquaponic-based food production system, which is directly linked to a whole-food shop (78 Steps, named after the distance from the productive system) and a whole food distribution system (the Whole Box). The building sits within a post-industrial landscape which is being developed into a new productive landscape, utilizing the the technologies developed by the Biospheric Foundation and Prof Greg Keeffe of Queens University Belfast. The collaboration links designer, academics and activists across the disciplines of Urban design, Architecture, Permaculture, landscape design, environmental science and business and community.

Computational scheduling methods for integrating plug-in electric vehicles with power systems: a review

Traditional internal combustion engine vehicles are a major contributor to global greenhouse gas emissions and other air pollutants, such as particulate matter and nitrogen oxides. If the tail pipe point emissions could be managed centrally without reducing the commercial and personal user functionalities, then one of the most attractive solutions for achieving a significant reduction of emissions in the transport sector would be the mass deployment of electric vehicles. Though electric vehicle sales are still hindered by battery performance, cost and a few other technological bottlenecks, focused commercialisation and support from government policies are encouraging large scale electric vehicle adoptions. The mass proliferation of plug-in electric vehicles is likely to bring a significant additional electric load onto the grid creating a highly complex operational problem for power system operators. Electric vehicle batteries also have the ability to act as energy storage points on the distribution system. This double charge and storage impact of many uncontrollable small kW loads, as consumers will want maximum flexibility, on a distribution system which was originally not designed for such operations has the potential to be detrimental to grid balancing. Intelligent scheduling methods if established correctly could smoothly integrate electric vehicles onto the grid. Intelligent scheduling methods will help to avoid cycling of large combustion plants, using expensive fossil fuel peaking plant, match renewable generation to electric vehicle charging and not overload the distribution system causing a reduction in power quality. In this paper, a state-of-the-art review of scheduling methods to integrate plug-in electric vehicles are reviewed, examined and categorised based on their computational techniques. Thus, in addition to various existing approaches covering analytical scheduling, conventional optimisation methods (e.g. linear, non-linear mixed integer programming and dynamic programming), and game theory, meta-heuristic algorithms including genetic algorithm and particle swarm optimisation, are all comprehensively surveyed, offering a systematic reference for grid scheduling considering intelligent electric vehicle integration.

Managing Future offshore wind power variability in a European Supergrid

The future European power system will have a hierarchical structure created by layers of system control from a Supergrid via regional high-voltage transmission through to medium and low-voltage distribution. Each level will have generation sources such as large-scale offshore wind, wave, solar thermal, nuclear directly connected to this Supergrid and high levels of embedded generation, connected to the medium-voltage distribution system. It is expected that the fuel portfolio will be dominated by offshore wind in Northern Europe and PV in Southern Europe. The strategies required to manage the coordination of supply-side variability with demand-side variability will include large scale interconnection, demand side management, load aggregation and storage in the context of the Supergrid combined with the Smart Grid. The design challenge associated with this will not only include control topology, data acquisition, analysis and communications technologies, but also the selection of fuel portfolio at a macro level. This paper quantifies the amount of demand side management, storage and so-called 'back-up generation' needed to support an 80% renewable energy portfolio in Europe by 2050. © 2013 IEEE.

A regulatory framework for short-term stochastic maintenance outage scheduling in smart grids

The current regulatory framework for maintenance outage scheduling in distribution systems needs revision to face the challenges of future smart grids. In the smart grid context, generation units and the system operator perform new roles with different objectives, and an efficient coordination between them becomes necessary. In this paper, the distribution system operator (DSO) of a microgrid receives the proposals for shortterm (ST) planned outages from the generation and transmission side, and has to decide the final outage plans, which is mandatory for the members to follow. The framework is based on a coordination procedure between the DSO and other market players. This paper undertakes the challenge of optimization problem in a smart grid where the operator faces with uncertainty. The results show the effectiveness and applicability of the proposed regulatory framework in the modified IEEE 34- bus test system.

Increase of the delivered energy probability in DES using a fuzzy probabilistic modeling

The paper proposes a methodology to increase the probability of delivering power to any load point by identifying new investments in distribution energy systems. The proposed methodology is based on statistical failure and repair data of distribution components and it uses a fuzzy-probabilistic modeling for the components outage parameters. The fuzzy membership functions of the outage parameters of each component are based on statistical records. A mixed integer nonlinear programming optimization model is developed in order to identify the adequate investments in distribution energy system components which allow increasing the probability of delivering power to any customer in the distribution system at the minimum possible cost for the system operator. To illustrate the application of the proposed methodology, the paper includes a case study that considers a 180 bus distribution network.

Virtual power players dealing with excessive wind power situations using real time pricing

The increasing importance given by environmental policies to the dissemination and use of wind power has led to its fast and large integration in power systems. In most cases, this integration has been done in an intensive way, causing several impacts and challenges in current and future power systems operation and planning. One of these challenges is dealing with the system conditions in which the available wind power is higher than the system demand. This is one of the possible applications of demand response, which is a very promising resource in the context of competitive environments that integrates even more amounts of distributed energy resources, as well as new players. The methodology proposed aims the maximization of the social welfare in a smart grid operated by a virtual power player that manages the available energy resources. When facing excessive wind power generation availability, real time pricing is applied in order to induce the increase of consumption so that wind curtailment is minimized. The proposed method is especially useful when actual and day-ahead wind forecast differ significantly. The proposed method has been computationally implemented in GAMS optimization tool and its application is illustrated in this paper using a real 937-bus distribution network with 20310 consumers and 548 distributed generators, some of them with must take contracts.

Smart meters as a tool for energy efficiency

Gradually smart grids and smart meters are closer to the home consumers. Several countries has developed studies focused in the impacts arising from the introduction of these technologies and one of the main advantages are related to energy efficiency, observed through the awareness of the population on behalf of a more efficient consumption. These benefits are felt directly by consumers through the savings on electricity bills and also by the concessionaires through the minimization of losses in transmission and distribution, system stability, smaller loading during peak hours, among others. In this article two projects that demonstrate the potential energy savings through smart meters and smart grids are presented. The first performed in Korea, focusing on the installation of smart meters and the impact of use of user interfaces. The second performed in Portugal, focusing on the control of loads in a residence with distributed generation.

Sistema de apoio à decisão na localização de peças

A globalização, nas suas diversas dimensões, está a tornar o mundo cada vez mais pequeno, alterando as nossas vidas e transformando a forma como as empresas fazem negócios. Estamos cada vez mais expostos aos traços e práticas das outras culturas à medida que a tecnologia diminui os custos da comunicação global e das viagens. A globalização está a obrigar as empresas a serem mais competitivas ao mesmo tempo que os países reduzem as barreiras ao comércio internacional e ao investimento estrangeiro. A competitividade das empresas obriga-as a serem mais eficientes e eficazes, logo a pensarem os seus processos internos de forma a procurarem a sua otimização e melhorarem a sua produtividade, com a notória consequência na satisfação do cliente. Para a satisfação do cliente é necessário que as operações dentro do sistema de distribuição, nomeadamente as realizadas no armazém, sejam otimizadas. Esta otimização é atingida quando as encomendas dos clientes estiverem completas e prontas a serem despachadas em tempo útil e todos os processos necessários para o efeito tenham ocorrido no menor espaço de tempo possível e com o mínimo de recursos. O planeamento das operações no armazém tem de determinar o tempo e a ordem das operações bem como os recursos necessários de forma a não acontecerem congestionamentos. A Caetano Parts, uma empresa de revenda de peças de substituição automóvel, identificou um congestionamento na localização de peças que chegavam pela primeira vez ao seu armazém, o que suscitou a necessidade do desenvolvimento de uma ferramenta que permitisse proceder à localização destas peças de uma forma mais expedita, permitindo ganhos significativos de tempo na arrumação das peças e consequentemente no tempo gasto na sua procura/separação e posterior envio para os clientes. A ferramenta desenvolvida consiste num programa em Visual Basic for Applications (VBA) cuja conceção, desenvolvimento e descrição das funcionalidades serão abordados ao longo do trabalho. Os testes realizados ao longo do desenvolvimento validaram o correto funcionamento da ferramenta.

Le poteau d’utilité publique, icône d’un autre siècle?

Le réseau de distribution aérien, ou plus simplement le réseau de poteaux de bois et ses câbles, est encore aujourd’hui omniprésent dans la majorité des villes du Québec. Pour plusieurs, le réseau de poteaux d’utilité publique semble appartenir à une autre époque. Pourtant, les poteaux et câbles ne sont pas près de disparaître, au contraire, ils ne cessent de se transformer. Depuis peu, de plus en plus d’équipements s’ajoutent sur le réseau: boîtiers techniques, nombre de câbles, appareillages au sommet des poteaux, antennes de communication, etc. Bien que les équipements du réseau de distribution aérien soient des éléments produits industriellement, ceux-ci intègrent rarement les services du design industriel au moment de leur conception initiale. Cette recherche étudie le système de distribution aérien sous l’angle de la « pensée design ». L’intention de cette étude est d’analyser les impacts de la présence du réseau aérien en milieux urbains et a pour objectif d’orienter les pratiques de conception de ce type d’équipements. Pour ce faire, dans une optique transdisciplinaire, diverses approches ont été sollicitées dont: l’approche systémique, l’approche paysage et les approches des partenaires des réseaux. Au moyen d’une recherche documentaire et d’observations faites sur le terrain, la recherche vise à dresser un portrait général du réseau de distribution aérien et les défis qui y sont associés. La recherche expose, dans un état des lieux, les résultats issus des questions analytiques de recherche suivantes: de quoi est composé le réseau de distribution aérien, quels sont les intervenants sur le réseau, quelles sont leurs interactions, quels sont les points de vue des différentes catégories d’acteurs en relation avec le réseau, quels sont les impacts reliés à la présence du réseau en milieux urbains et quelle a été son évolution au fil des années. Dans la perspective de l’approche design, chercher à comprendre une problématique de façon plus large permet de s’assurer que l’on répond au bon problème, que l’on considère tous les facteurs en cause visant ainsi à réduire les répercussions négatives sur les contextes de vie actuels et futurs. Les principaux constats de cette recherche démontrent que la composition du réseau de distribution, avant même de considérer les nouveaux usages et l’ajout de nouveaux équipements, présente des lacunes importantes. La gestion entre les divers partenaires du réseau de distribution pose aussi problème. L’ajout de nouveaux équipements sur le réseau, combiné aux multiples équipements apparaissant sur les voies publiques laisse entrevoir l’atteinte d’un niveau de saturation des milieux urbains. Les façons de faire hermétiques et «cristallisées» des partenaires du réseau ne collent pas avec les initiatives et aspirations générales en matière d’aménagement. En étudiant la problématique du réseau de distribution par le biais de la pensée design, l’approche design cherche à déceler, de façon proactive, les opportunités de design qui permettront de mieux gérer l’apparition et l’intégration des nouveaux équipements sur les poteaux. Cette démarche permet d’envisager des solutions qui visent à limiter les répercussions collatérales une fois en contexte et qui, du même coup, adressent des problématiques connexes. Finalement, à la lumière de l’état des lieux, cette recherche propose des critères de conception de futurs réseaux de distribution, élaborés dans l’esprit de l’approche design.

“Urban Water Supply Management: A Study Of Centralised And Community Based Systems In Calicut City

Studies in urban water supply system are few in the state of Kerala. It is a little researched area. In the case of water pricing a number of studies are available. In Kerala state, exception to Jacob John’s study on “Economics of Public Water Supply System”, which is a case study of Trivandrum Water Supply System in 1997, no exhaustive research work has so far come out in this field. loreover no indepth research study has come up, so far, relating to household ater demand analysis and the distribution system of urban piped water supply. he proposed study is first of its kind, which focuses on the distributional and Iailability problems of piped water supply in an urban centre in Kerala state. Hence there is a felt need for enquiring into the sufficiency of )table water supplied to people in urban areas and the efficiency maintained in roviding the scarce resource and preventing its misuse by the consumers. It is in llS backdrop that this study was undertaken and its empirical part was conducted |Calicut city in the state of Kerala. Study is confined to the water supply system ithe city of Calicut

Evaluación de un modelo de abastecimiento para el comercio internacional de carga masiva en Colombia sobre el sector maderero

Teniendo en cuenta el vertiginoso crecimiento que se ha presentado durante el periodo 2003- 2011 en las importaciones del sector maderero en el país, con el presente trabajo se buscara realizar una pertinente evaluación del sistema de distribución actual que tiene el sector, y a partir de dicho análisis proponer soluciones viables para lograr un aumento de la competitividad y productividad del sector. Este trabajo pretende analizar dos escenarios de distribución diferentes: despacho directo en contenedor puerto-centro de distribución, desconsolidar carga en puerto para su posterior distribución, con el objetivo de presentar al sector el modelo que se adapte a sus necesidades teniendo en cuenta diferentes factores como: a. Costos b. Ventajas y Desventajas c. Tiempos d. Distancias

Administración en la cadena de suministro y su relación con el desempeño de las PYME del sector agroindustrial

En la actualidad las organizaciones están en búsqueda de una mejora continua, esto lleva a que las empresas hagan una revisión de estrategias que permitan alcanzar una posición de líderes en los diferentes sectores en los que se desempeñan. Una de las estrategias para lograr un alto posicionamiento en las nuevas empresas es la adecuada gestión que hacen de la cadena de suministro. El sector agroindustrial tiene un amplia cadena de suministro desde la obtención de materias primas hasta la llegada al cliente final, por su gran magnitud requiere de una adecuada administración de procesos que permitan ser eficaces y eficientes para alcanzar logros propuestos, aprovechar los recursos limitados con los que cuentan para su cumplimiento y, por último, la capacidad propia para la transformación de sus recursos. Para lograr que las empresas obtengan ventajas competitivas, es necesario que los distintos eslabones de la cadena de suministros cuenten con una capacidad de interacción que les permita, tanto agilizar como asegurar el éxito durante la incorporación de los nuevos productos en el mercado. Por medio de esta investigación se busca esclarecer y analizar la importancia de la administración en la cadena de suministro y la relación con el desempeño, basándose en las Pymes del sector agroindustrial. La intención es evaluar la información de diversos autores quienes han hablado de la relación que existe entre la cadena de suministro y su desempeño, teniendo en cuenta variables como el sector agroindustrial y las Pymes.

Made in Italy. Made in Britain. Quality, brands and innovation in the European poultry market, 1950-1980.

This paper compares the development of the poultry industry in Italy with the UK. Earlier research has suggested that the UK poultry industry developed a symbiotic relationship with the emerging supermarket retailers. Italy had a retarded supermarket sector. Its distribution system favoured small-scale, independent butchers rather than chains of self-service supermarkets. Despite this the Italian poultry industry also modernised, adopting US technologies. The catalyst for this modernisation was technological innovation in refrigeration technologies that enabled Italian consumers and independent retailers to be persuaded of the merits of the new ‘technological’ chicken. While the Italian market has become dominated by AIA and Amadori in recent years, the key innovators were the entrepreneurs that created the company called Arena.