The BRICS: some historical experiences, growth challenges and opportunities

The acronym BRICS was a fad among the media and global investors. Now, the acronym sounds passé. However, the group of countries remains important, from both political and economic reasons. They have a large aggregate size, 28% of the global GDP and 42% of the world’s population, high growth potential due to the current significant misallocation of resources and relatively low stock of human capital, structural transformation is in progress and one of them, China, is taking steps to become a global power and a challenger to the US dominance. This paper provides a brief overview of the five economies, Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. We focus on some aspects of their history, the Chinese initiatives in international finance and geopolitical strategic moves, their growth experience and structural transformation over the last 35 years, trade and investment integration into the global economy and among themselves, the growth challenges faced by their economies and the potential gains to the Brazilian economy from a stronger integration with the other BRICS. In association with its efforts to be a global power, China aims to become a major player in global finance and to achieve the status of global currency for the renminbi, which would be the first currency of an emerging economy to attain such position. Despite the similarities, the BRICS encompass very diverse economies. In the recent decades, China and India showed stellar growth rates. On the other hand, Brazil, Russia and South Africa have expanded just in line with global output growth with the Russian economy exhibiting high volatility. China is by far the largest economy, and South Africa the smallest, the only BRICS economy with a GDP lower than US$ 1 trillion. Russia abandoned communism almost 25 years ago, but reversed many of the privatizations of 90’s. China is still ruled by communism, but has a vibrant private sector and recently has officially declared market forces to play a dominant role in its economy. Brazil, Russia and South Africa are global natural resources powerhouses and commodity exporters while China and India are large commodity importers. Brazil is relatively closed to international trade of goods and services, in marked contrast to the other four economies. Brazil, India and South Africa are dependent on external capital flows whereas China and Russia are capital exporters. India and South Africa have younger populations and a large portion living below the poverty line. Despite its extraordinary growth experience that lifted many millions from poverty, China still has 28% of its population classified as poor. Russia and China have much older populations and one of their challenges is to deal with the effects of a declining labor force in the near future. India, China and South Africa face a long way to urbanization, while Brazil and Russia are already urbanized countries. China is an industrial economy but its primary sector still absorbs a large pool of workers. India is not, but the primary sector employs also a large share of the labor force. China’s aggregate demand structure is biased towards investment that has been driving its expansion. Brazil and South Africa have an aggregate demand structure similar to the developed economies, with private consumption accounting for approximately 70%. The same similarity applies to the supply side, as in both economies the share of services nears 70%. The development problem is a productivity problem, so microeconomic reforms are badly needed to foster long-term growth of the BRICS economies since they have lost steam due a variety of factors, but fundamentally due to slower total factor productivity growth. China and India are implementing ambitious reform programs, while Brazil is dealing with macroeconomic disequilibria. Russia and South Africa remain mute about structural reforms. There are some potential benefits to Brazil to be extracted from a greater economic integration with the BRICS, particularly in natural resources intensive industries and services. Necessary conditions to the materialization of those gains are the removal of the several sources of resource misallocation and strong investment in human capital.

Representações identitárias e projeção internacional : a diplomacia cultural brasileira (2003-2009)

Neste trabalho, propomos uma análise sobre as estratégias de rearticulação identitária do Brasil na primeira década do século XXI, tendo em vista a projeção internacional do país via Diplomacia Cultural. Para tanto, definimos como objeto de nossa análise as relações entre o Brasil e a França, a partir de dois eventos principais: (i) O ano do Brasil na França e (ii) o Ano da França no Brasil. A partir das contribuições teórico-metodológicas originárias da vertente francesa sobre a História Cultural, bem como da Escola Inglesa de Relações Internacionais e do campo da Historiografia das Relações Culturais Internacionais, buscamos verificar como a Diplomacia Cultural, no caso brasileiro, deve ser compreendida enquanto uma política de governo, favorecida pelo ethos articulado e disponibilizado do país e de seus representantes em alguns momentos de sua história – em nosso caso, durante o governo de Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (2003-2010). Nesse sentido, buscamos perceber como a discursividade sobre múltiplas identidades brasileiras se insere nesse contexto enquanto mecanismo de projeção do Brasil no cenário internacional.

Impacto dos países desenvolvidos e emergentes na economia brasileira

A proposta desta dissertação é analisar o comportamento econômico brasileiro em relação às demais economias de países emergentes e desenvolvidos, utilizando-se como metodologia a análise de componentes principais com variáveis de crescimento econômico e macroeconômicas como inflação, bolsa, moeda e juros. Visando obter uma robustez maior nos resultados foram realizados dois exercícios, primeiro buscou-se comparar o resultado obtido para o Brasil com outros países. No segundo exercício a comparação foi realizada para diferentes períodos de tempo, de maneira de separar o período em pré e pós-crise de 2009.

Assessing global economic activity linkages: an empirical exercise based on global autoregressive regression

Economic performance increasingly relies on global economic environment due to the growing importance of trade and nancial links among countries. Literature on growth spillovers shows various gains obtained by this interaction. This work aims at analyzing the possible e ects of a potential economic growth downturn in China, Germany and United States on the growth of other economies. We use global autoregressive regression approach to assess interdependence among countries. Two types of phenomena are simulated. The rst one is a one time shock that hit these economies. Our simulations use a large shock of -2.5 standard deviations, a gure very similar to what we saw back in the 2008 crises. The second experiment simulate the e ect of a hypothetical downturn of the aforementioned economies. Our results suggest that the United States play the role of a global economy a ecting countries across the globe whereas Germany and China play a regional role.

Contra as Secas: a engenharia e as origens de um planejamento regional no nordeste brasileiro

Droughts surfaced in 1877 as a crucial problem for the birthing Brazilian nation. Engineers, who formed the country's technical and scientific elite, took it upon themselves to study, understand and fight the problem through planned actions of intervention on space. This work, based on proposals and discussions contained in engineering magazines and reports, aims to provide elements for the comprehension of how these systematized actions against droughts, in the Iate nineteenth and early twentieth century, contributed to spatial analysis and the formation of a (then-inexistent) regional and territorial planning discipline in Brazi!. Engineers, by taking up the position of masterminds in the country's modernization, guaranteed for themselves personal economic stability, social prestige and political power. By understanding nature, either as a resource to be exploited or an adversary to national progress, they contributed to the delimitation of the region now known as the Northeast. By seeking to understand the drought phenomenon, they created knowledge about the space they sought to intervene on; by constructing their projects amid political and economical difficulty, they changed the organizational structures of cities and country in the northeast. The proposals for açudes (Iarge water reservoirs) allowed the fixation of population and the resistance against droughts; the roads - railroads and automotive roadways - connected the sertão to the capitais and the coast, speeding up help to the affected populations during droughts and allowing the circulation of goods so as to strengthen the local economies in normal rimes. The adopted practices and techniques, adapted from foreign experience and developed through trial and improvement, were consolidated as an eminently spatial intervention course, even if a theoretical body of regional or territorial planning wasn't formed in Brazil. Regional Planning proper was first applied in the country in the Northeast itself, in the 1950s, based off an economical view of reality in order to achieve development. The engineer's work prior tothat date, however, cannot be dlsconsldered. It was proved that, despite facing financial and political hurdles, engineers had a profound commitment to the problem and intended to act systematically to transform the economical and social relations in the region, in order to be victorious in their struggle against droughts

O progama empregador de última instância: Sua relevância em tempos de crises financeiras e sua aplicabilidade ao Brasil.

This dissertation aims to continue the work developed previously concerning the properties of the employer of last resort program (ELR) that would be able to promote a complete elimination of the involuntary unemployment from the economy, so much of the unemployment generated by structural problems as for problems of the conjuncture, as the present world financial crisis. Besides, it intends to deepen the study concerning the applicability of that program to the Brazilian economy, estimating their potential target population in the country and the cost with the workers' remuneration. It was presented the ELR theoretical-conceptual structure and a debate concerning their economic viability; the program properties that turn it more efficient than the onetary and fiscal policies (PMFs) in the fight against involuntary unemployment in times of financial crises; a study on its applicability to the Brazilian socioeconomic specificities and an estimate of their potential target population and of the annual wage cost in the country, as a whole, and in the specific case of the Northeast region and of the state of Rio Grande do Norte.

O sertão vai para o Além-Mar : a relação centro e periferia e as fábricas de couro em Pernambuco nos setecentos

This thesis focuses on the economic relations in the interior of the Portuguese America, more specifically in Pernambuco Captancy in the 17th Century, concerning the discussion about center-periphery relationship and also the context of Brazilian colonial history. In addition, it portrays the exportations of leather to Portugal, their consequences in the Captaincy of Pernambuco and the businessmen involved in the trade and manufacturing of that product. In order to accomplish this work, manuscripts of Arquivo Histórico Ultramarino (Ultramarine Historical Archives), colonial narratives and maps of the mercantile loads have been used so that one can visualize that the manufacturing of leather and other products have provided a social and economical connection among Pernambuco, Recife as trade center, Olinda as administrative municipality and Portugal

Violência Sexual Infanto-Juvenil em Natal: uma avaliação do Programa Sentinela

Analyze the problem of sexual violence suffered by children and adolescents in the city of Natal / Rio Grande do Norte (RN), attended by the Programa Sentinela, a service aimed at combating sexual violence children and teenagers who serves on the council of Natal. Thus aims to review the implementation of the Programa Sentinela in Natal / RN, in the period 2001 to 2006, verifying that the program has contributed to the access of children and adolescents who are victims of abuse and sexual exploitation to fundamental rights under the Statute Children and adolescents (ECA) and the Local Plan and the National gainst Infanto-Youth Sexual Violence. It has a theoretical and methodological approach quantitative and qualitative, covering the issue of sexual violence against children and adolescents, as one of the expressions of economic relationships, gender, race and culture that make up the material and symbolic structure of society. It methodological procedure: review of literature on the subject and conducting interviews with professionals and families of children and adolescent victims of sexual violence. Investigate as the unit of analysis the Sentinel Program. The analysis on the governmental actions of this period on this social problem points to the continuity and little change in the care of victims of sexual violence: despite maintain features and palliative assistencialistas, favoring the "Network of Sexual Tourism", go through some innovations in terms of securing rights from the ECA, which is the need for transparency and democratization in the management of government policies. In research undertaken, Brazil will only be combating this type of crime when each of the social actors are actually doing their share, down taboos, facing corruption and strengthening a system of guarantee of rights, which target children and adolescents are unprotected, and often ignored by Brazilian society

A mineração artesanal e de pequena escala em pegmatitos e cerâmica no município de Parelhas, região do Seridó/Rio Grande do Norte

The working conditions, occupational health, occupational illness and workers quality of life, usually referring to the artisanal activities and the workers with a poor professional support. Because this reality is still present in locals without good infrastructure of social and economic attention, there is a need for a broad knowledge of problems related to the productive processes that include features of unsanitary and unhealthy. Despite the intense process of industrialization promoted by globalization and the growth of developing nations like Brazil, the activities of artisanal and small-scale mining are still suffering from the marginalization of their production processes and their workers. This dissertation deals with the description of mineral-based activities (MBA), especially the activities related to production processes of extraction and processing of red pottery and minerals in pegmatites in Parelhas city, Seridó, Rio Grande do Norte, which are conducted by small mining companies or artisanal miners. The study of the work process was based on direct observation, photographic documentation, ergonomics, health and occupational safety analysis, interviews and structured questionnaire with workers of the two activities. The results indicate the need for improvement in both workplaces (red pottery and pegmatites), adaptation of workers to safety standards specific to the workplace, more attention and care related to ergonomics and occupational safety, greater importance to economic and social relations among performed activities, workers and firms of mineral branch and better and greater integration of social policies, supported by different sectors of society with the intention of transforming the current social, cultural, labor and education situation

Panorama da inserçao internacional da América Latina e Caribe 2009-2010: Crise originada no centro e recuperação impulsionada pelas economias emergentes. Documento informativo

Incluye Bibliografía

Internacionalização de empresas produtoras de insumos básicos de países em desenvolvimento: análise das indústrias de aço e de cimento

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Taxa de câmbio: uma abordagem integrada - teoria e história econômica

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Reestructuracao industrial: reflexoes sobre autonomia tecnológica e relacoes económicas internacionais

Incluye Bibliografía

Vozes do Império: Estados Unidos e Argentina no debate político da imprensa brasileira (1875 – 1889)

Pós-graduação em História - FCLAS