M&A und das Synergieversprechen. Wen interessiert's? Entwicklung eines Ansatzes zur Analyse von Aktienkursreaktionen auf M&A-basierte Finanzkommunikation

Die Arbeit entwickelt einen Ansatz, mit dem Aktienkursreaktionen auf Unternehmensmeldungen untersucht werden können. Die Vorgehensweise entstammt der Forschungsfrage, ob Investoren im Sinne einer Kontrollfunktion des Kapitalmarktes angemessen auf Unternehmensmeldungen reagieren, die auf den Stand einer M&A-Integration hinweisen. Vermutet wird, dass Synergieeffekte vom Management im Vorfeld versprochen werden, um M&A-Transaktionen zu rechtfertigen. Anschließend würdigen bzw. kontrollieren Investoren die Entwicklung der Integration jedoch nicht ausreichend. Dies soll bewiesen werden, indem gezeigt wird, dass Kursreaktionen in Form von bereinigten Tagesrenditen und -volatilitäten, Handelsvolumen und Hoch-Tief-Spannen auf M&A-Meldungen vergleichsweise geringer ausfallen. Um eine Vergleichbarkeit von Unternehmensmeldungen verschiedener Gruppen (M&A, Produkte usw.) herstellen zu können, werden die Handlungsanreize der Meldungen mittels der qualitativen Inhaltsanalyse kategorisiert. Im Rahmen einer exemplarischen Anwendung zeigte sich, dass der Ansatz, dessen Besonderheit in der systematischen Auswahl probater Beobachtungen liegt, nicht für eine praktische Übertragung geeignet ist. Demnach konnte die Vermutung weder verworfen noch bestätigt werden. Theoretisch kann aufgrund der Betrachtung eines einzelnen Ereignistages, an dem neben der zu untersuchenden Meldung keine weiteren Informationen über das Unternehmen veröffentlicht worden sind, ein relativ starker Kausalitätsbezug zwischen Meldung und Reaktion hergestellt werden. Allerdings bestehen immer noch zu viele Störereignisse und Überlagerungseffekte, die eine kritische Validierung der Ergebnisse verhindern.

Strategic Human Resource Management of Volunteers and the Link to Hospital Patient Satisfaction

This article uses strategic human resource management theory to consider the ways in which volunteers can potentially enhance hospital patient satisfaction. Results of a structural equation modeling analysis of multi-source data on 107 U.S. hospitals show positive associations between hospital strategy, volunteer management practices, volunteer workforce attributes, and patient satisfaction. Although no causality can be assumed, the results shed light on the volunteer–patient satisfaction relationship and have important implications for hospital leaders, volunteer administrators, and future research.

A luz na pintura de representação : mito, representação e luz na prática pictórica : (1550-1650)

Tese de doutoramento, Belas-Artes (Pintura), Universidade de Lisboa, Faculdade de Belas-Artes, 2014

The causal relationship between private and public investment in Zimbabwe

Aims: The study examines the relationship between private and public investment in Zimbabwe utilizing yearly time series data for the period 1967 to 2004. Study Design: Time Series Study. Place and Duration of Study: Zimbabwe, May 2011 to July 2011. Methodology: Emphasis is placed on the direction of causality and the long run and short run effect of the two types of investment on each other. The paper constructs empirical models for both private and public investment, based on the flexible accelerator theory. Private investment is found to be cointegrated with public investment. A cointergration and VEC models are employed to assess the long and short run relationship existing between public and private investment. Conclusion: The relationship between private and public investment is found to be insignificant and the direction of causality found to be unidirectional. The results support the notion that private investment precedes public investment.

Does Daily Sunshine make you Happy? Subjective Measures of Well-being and the Weather

This paper examines to what extent individual measures of well-being are correlated with daily weather patterns in the United Kingdom. Merging daily weather data with data from the British Household Panel Survey (BHPS) allows us to test whether measures of well-being are correlated with temperature, sunshine, rainfall and wind speed. We are able to make a strong case for causality due to ‘randomness’ of weather in addition to using regression methods that eliminate time-invariant individual level heterogeneity. Results suggest that some weather parameters (such as sunshine) are correlated with some measures of well-being (job satisfaction); however, in general the effect of weather on subjective measures of well-being is very small.

Growth Accounting: How institutions affect Portugal's Growth

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Economics from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

How to monitor and improve Unilever JM Supply Chain processes to become the best of Portugal’s sector in 2015?

Unilever Jerónimo Martins is a Portuguese joint-venture leading firm in what concerns the supply chain industry of fast-moving consumer goods in Portugal. The scope of analysis of this Work Project is focusing on Unilever-JM operations and services in the Portuguese market regarding quality, efficiency and effectiveness over B2B customers. It will be analysed the possibility of development and implementation of a performance measurement system, Tableau de Bord, which will be crucial for the identification of potential opportunities of improvement with impact in the supply chain processes. This will be completed through the establishment of KPI’s to monitor and manage periodically logistics, planning and customer service processes’ performance, which are the ones where the bottlenecks are impacting more in the supply chain. In this work project the nexus causality for the problems will also be discussed and some recommendations will be prepared to tackle the inefficiencies found through the monitoring of the previous core processes, in order to improve efficacy and quality service of the supply chain.

Migrant networks and migrant intentions to return

Social ties are potentially an important determinant of migrants’ intention to return to their home country, and yet this topic has not been addressed in the existing economics literature on international migration. This study examines the absolute and relative importance of migrant social networks both at destination and at origin. We base our research on experimental data from Batista and Narciso (2013)1. By defining networks according to different characteristics of their members and migrant return intentions with respect to three different time horizons, we are able to dissect the network effect into its components. After controlling for unobserved heterogeneity and reverse causality biases we find that network at home seems to be the most important determinant of the migrant’s intention to return home within five and ten years.

The impact of credit conditions on market liquidity – a case for European stock markets

The recent financial crisis has drawn the attention of researchers and regulators to the importance of liquidity for stock market stability and efficiency. The ability of market-makers and investors to provide liquidity is constrained by the willingness of financial institutions to supply funding capital. This paper sheds light on the liquidity linkages between the Central Bank, Monetary Financial Institutions and market-makers as crucial elements to the well-functioning of markets. Results suggest the existence of causality between credit conditions and stock market liquidity for the Eurozone between 2003 and 2015. Similar evidence is found for the UK during the post-crisis period. Keywords: stock

Stepwise evaluation of unexplained syncope in a large ambulatory population.

BACKGROUND: Up to 60% of syncopal episodes remain unexplained. We report the results of a standardized, stepwise evaluation of patients referred to an ambulatory clinic for unexplained syncope. METHODS AND RESULTS: We studied 939 consecutive patients referred for unexplained syncope, who underwent a standardized evaluation, including history, physical examination, electrocardiogram, head-up tilt testing (HUTT), carotid sinus massage (CSM) and hyperventilation testing (HYV). Echocardiogram and stress test were performed when underlying heart disease was initially suspected. Electrophysiological study (EPS) and implantable loop recorder (ILR) were used only in patients with underlying structural heart disease or major unexplained syncope. We identified a cause of syncope in 66% of patients, including 27% vasovagal, 14% psychogenic, 6% arrhythmias, and 6% hypotension. Noninvasive testing identified 92% and invasive testing an additional 8% of the causes. HUTT yielded 38%, CSM 28%, HYV 49%, EPS 22%, and ILR 56% of diagnoses. On average, patients with arrhythmic causes were older, had a lower functional capacity, longer P-wave duration, and presented with fewer prodromes than patients with vasovagal or psychogenic syncope. CONCLUSIONS: A standardized stepwise evaluation emphasizing noninvasive tests yielded 2/3 of causes in patients referred to an ambulatory clinic for unexplained syncope. Neurally mediated and psychogenic mechanisms were behind >50% of episodes, while cardiac arrhythmias were uncommon. Sudden syncope, particularly in older patients with functional limitations or a prolonged P-wave, suggests an arrhythmic cause.

Targeting burn prevention in the paediatric population : a prospective study of children's burns in the Lausanne area.

QUESTION UNDER STUDY: Domestic accidents are an important problem in paediatric medicine. This study was designed to gain a better understanding of burn mechanisms and target prevention. METHODS: Children treated for burn lesions in the Department of Paediatric Surgery between August 2004 and August 2005 were included in this prospective study. The burn mechanisms, the children's ages and the circumstances in which children were burned as well as their home environment variables were analyzed. RESULTS: The current study included eighty-nine patients, aged between 2 months and 15 years. Seventy-eight percent were less than 5 years old. More than half were boys. Hot liquid scalding was the most frequent mechanism. There does not seem to be an increased risk in the immigrant population or in low economic status families. In most cases, an adult person was present at time of injury. CONCLUSIONS: If we were to describe the highest "at risk" candidate for a burn in our region, it would be a boy aged 15 months to 5 years who is burned by a cup of hot liquid on his hand, at home, around mealtime, in the presence of one or both parents. Reduced attention in the safe domestic setting is probably responsible.

Hyperhomocysteinemia is independently associated with albuminuria in the population-based CoLaus study.

Increased serum levels of homocysteine and uric acid have each been associated with cardiovascular risk. We analyzed whether homocysteine and uric acid were associated with glomerular filtration rate (GFR) and albuminuria independently of each other. We also investigated the association of MTHFR polymorphisms related to homocysteine with albuminuria to get further insight into causality. This was a cross-sectional population-based study in Caucasians (n = 5913). Hyperhomocysteinemia was defined as total serum homocysteine ≥ 15 μmol/L. Albuminuria was defined as urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio > 30 mg/g. Uric acid was associated positively with homocysteine (r = 0.246 in men and r = 0.287 in women, P < 0.001). The prevalence of albuminuria increased across increasing homocysteine categories (from 6.4% to 17.3% in subjects with normal GFR and from 3.5% to 14.5% in those with reduced GFR, P for trend < 0.005). Hyperhomocysteinemia (OR = 2.22, 95% confidence interval: 1.60-3.08, P < 0.001) and elevated serum uric acid (OR = 1.27, 1.08-1.50, per 100 μmol/L, P = 0.004) were significantly associated with albuminuria, independently of hypertension and type 2 diabetes. The 2-fold higher risk of albuminuria associated with hyperhomocysteinemia was similar to the risk associated with hypertension or diabetes. MTHFR alleles related to higher homocysteine were associated with increased risk of albuminuria. In the general adult population, elevated serum homocysteine and uric acid were associated with albuminuria independently of each other and of renal function.

Estimating the net contribution of interleukin-28B variation to spontaneous hepatitis C virus clearance.

The identification of associations between interleukin-28B (IL-28B) variants and the spontaneous clearance of hepatitis C virus (HCV) raises the issues of causality and the net contribution of host genetics to the trait. To estimate more precisely the net effect of IL-28B genetic variation on HCV clearance, we optimized genotyping and compared the host contributions in multiple- and single-source cohorts to control for viral and demographic effects. The analysis included individuals with chronic or spontaneously cleared HCV infections from a multiple-source cohort (n = 389) and a single-source cohort (n = 71). We performed detailed genotyping in the coding region of IL-28B and searched for copy number variations to identify the genetic variant or haplotype carrying the strongest association with viral clearance. This analysis was used to compare the effects of IL-28B variation in the two cohorts. Haplotypes characterized by carriage of the major alleles at IL-28B single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) were highly overrepresented in individuals with spontaneous clearance versus those with chronic HCV infections (66.1% versus 38.6%, P = 6 × 10(-9) ). The odds ratios for clearance were 2.1 [95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.6-3.0] and 3.9 (95% CI = 1.5-10.2) in the multiple- and single-source cohorts, respectively. Protective haplotypes were in perfect linkage (r(2) = 1.0) with a nonsynonymous coding variant (rs8103142). Copy number variants were not detected. We identified IL-28B haplotypes highly predictive of spontaneous HCV clearance. The high linkage disequilibrium between IL-28B SNPs indicates that association studies need to be complemented by functional experiments to identify single causal variants. The point estimate for the genetic effect was higher in the single-source cohort, which was used to effectively control for viral diversity, sex, and coinfections and, therefore, offered a precise estimate of the net host genetic contribution.

Counterfactuals and causal inference: Methods and principles for social research

"Most quantitative empirical analyses are motivated by the desire to estimate the causal effect of an independent variable on a dependent variable. Although the randomized experiment is the most powerful design for this task, in most social science research done outside of psychology, experimental designs are infeasible. (Winship & Morgan, 1999, p. 659)." This quote from earlier work by Winship and Morgan, which was instrumental in setting the groundwork for their book, captures the essence of our review of Morgan and Winship's book: It is about causality in nonexperimental settings.

Tackling Societal Challenges Related to Ageing and Transport Transition: An Introduction to Philosophical Principles of Causation Adapted to the Biopsychosocial Model

In geriatrics, driving cessation is addressed within the biopsychosocial model. This has broadened the scope of practitioners, not only in terms of assessing fitness to drive, but also by helping to maintain social engagements and provide support for transport transition. Causes can be addressed at different levels by adapting medication, improving physical health, modifying behaviour, adapting lifestyle, or bringing changes to the environment. This transdisciplinary approach requires an understanding of how different disciplines are linked to each other. This article reviews the philosophical principles of causality between fields and provides a framework for understanding causality within the biopsychosocial model. Understanding interlevel constraints should help practitioners overcome their differences, and favor transversal approaches to driving cessation.