Simulating SOC changes in 11 land use change chronosequences from the Brazilian Amazon with RothC and Century models

Land use and land cover changes in the Brazilian Amazon have major implications for regional and global carbon (C) cycling. Cattle pasture represents the largest single use (about 70%) of this once-forested land in most of the region. The main objective of this study was to evaluate the accuracy of the RothC and Century models at estimating soil organic C (SOC) changes under forest-to-pasture conditions in the Brazilian Amazon. We used data from 11 site-specific 'forest to pasture' chronosequences with the Century Ecosystem Model (Century 4.0) and the Rothamsted C Model (RothC 26.3). The models predicted that forest clearance and conversion to well managed pasture would cause an initial decline in soil C stocks (0-20 cm depth), followed in the majority of cases by a slow rise to levels exceeding those under native forest. One exception to this pattern was a chronosequence in Suia-Missu, which is under degraded pasture. In three other chronosequences the recovery of soil C under pasture appeared to be only to about the same level as under the previous forest. Statistical tests were applied to determine levels of agreement between simulated SOC stocks and observed stocks for all the sites within the 11 chronosequences. The models also provided reasonable estimates (coefficient of correlation = 0.8) of the microbial biomass C in the 0-10 cm soil layer for three chronosequences, when compared with available measured data. The Century model adequately predicted the magnitude and the overall trend in delta C-13 for the six chronosequences where measured 813 C data were available. This study gave independent tests of model performance, as no adjustments were made to the models to generate outputs. Our results suggest that modelling techniques can be successfully used for monitoring soil C stocks and changes, allowing both the identification of current patterns in the soil and the projection of future conditions. Results were used and discussed not only to evaluate soil C dynamics but also to indicate soil C sequestration opportunities for the Brazilian Amazon region. Moreover, modelling studies in these 'forest to pasture' systems have important applications, for example, the calculation of CO, emissions from land use change in national greenhouse gas inventories. (0 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Predicted soil organic carbon stocks and changes in the Brazilian Amazon between 2000 and 2030

Currently we have little understanding of the impacts of land use change on soil C stocks in the Brazilian Amazon. Such information is needed to determine impacts'6n the global C cycle and the sustainability of agricultural systems that are replacing native forest. The aim of this study was to predict soil carbon stocks and changes in the Brazilian Amazon during the period between 2000 and 2030, using the GEFSOC soil carbon (C) modelling system. In order to do so, we devised current and future land use scenarios for the Brazilian Amazon, taking into account: (i) deforestation, rates from the past three decades, (ii) census data on land use from 1940 to 2000, including the expansion and intensification of agriculture in the region, (iii) available information on management practices, primarily related to well managed pasture versus degraded pasture and conventional systems versus no-tillage systems for soybean (Glycine max) and (iv) FAO predictions on agricultural land use and land use changes for the years 2015 and 2030. The land use scenarios were integrated with spatially explicit soils data (SOTER database), climate, potential natural vegetation and land management units using the recently developed GEFSOC soil C modelling system. Results are presented in map, table and graph form for the entire Brazilian Amazon for the current situation (1990 and 2000) and the future (2015 and 2030). Results include soil organic C (SOC) stocks and SOC stock change rates estimated by three methods: (i) the Century ecosystem model, (ii) the Rothamsted C model and (iii) the intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC) method for assessing soil C at regional scale. In addition, we show estimated values of above and belowground biomass for native vegetation, pasture and soybean. The results on regional SOC stocks compare reasonably well with those based on mapping approaches. The GEFSOC system provided a means of efficiently handling complex interactions among biotic-edapho-climatic conditions (> 363,000 combinations) in a very large area (similar to 500 Mha) such as the Brazilian Amazon. All of the methods used showed a decline in SOC stock for the period studied; Century and RothC simulated values for 2030 being about 7% lower than those in 1990. Values from Century and RothC (30,430 and 25,000 Tg for the 0-20 cm layer for the Brazilian Amazon region were higher than those obtained from the IPCC system (23,400 Tg in the 0-30 cm layer). Finally; our results can help understand the major biogeochemical cycles that influence soil fertility and help devise management strategies that enhance the sustainability of these areas and thus slow further deforestation. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Effect of dietary supplementation with selenium-enriched yeast or sodium selenite on selenium tissue distribution and meat quality in beef cattle

The objective was to determine the concentration of total selenium (Se) and the proportion of total Se comprised as selenomethionine (SeMet) and selenocysteine (SeCys) in post mortem tissues of beef cattle offered diets containing graded additions of selenized enriched yeast (SY) [Saccharomyces cerevisae CNCM I-3060]), or sodium selenite (SS). Oxidative stability and tissue glutathione peroxidase (GSH-Px) activity of edible muscle tissue were assessed 10 d post-mortem. Thirty two beef cattle were offered, for a period of 112 d, a total mixed ration which had either been supplemented with SY (0, 0.15 or 0.35 mg Se/kg DM) or SS (0.15 mg Se/kg DM). At enrollment (0 d) and at 28, 56, 84 and 112 d following enrollment, blood samples were taken for Se and Se species determination, as well as whole blood GSH-Px activity. At the end of the study beef cattle were euthanized and samples of heart, liver, kidney, and skeletal muscle (LM and psoas major) were retained for Se and Se species determination. Tissue GSH-Px activity and thiobarbituric acid reactive substances (TBARS) were determined in skeletal muscle tissue (LM only). The incorporation into the diet of ascending concentrations of Se as SY increased whole blood total Se and the proportion of total Se comprised as SeMet, as well as GSH-Px activity. There was also a dose dependant response to the graded addition of SY on total Se and proportion of total Se as SeMet in all tissues and GSH-Px activity in skeletal muscle tissue. Furthermore, total Se concentration of whole blood and tissues was greater in those animals offered SY when compared with those receiving a comparable dose of SS, indicating an improvement in Se availability and tissue Se retention. Likewise, GSH-Px activity in whole blood and LM was greater in those animals offered SY when compared with those receiving a comparable dose of SS. However, these increases in tissue total Se and GSH-Px activity appeared to have little or no effect in meat oxidative stability.

Threshold effects in price transmission: The case of Brazilian wheat, maize, and soya prices

Recent studies into price transmission have recognized the important role played by transport and transaction costs. Threshold models are one approach to accommodate such costs. We develop a generalized Threshold Error Correction Model to test for the presence and form of threshold behavior in price transmission that is symmetric around equilibrium. We use monthly wheat, maize, and soya prices from the United States, Argentina, and Brazil to demonstrate this model. Classical estimation of these generalized models can present challenges but Bayesian techniques avoid many of these problems. Evidence for thresholds is found in three of the five commodity price pairs investigated.

An economic decision support tool for simulating paratuberculosis control strategies in a UK suckler beef herd

A dynamic, deterministic, economic simulation model was developed to estimate the costs and benefits of controlling Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (Johne's disease) in a suckler beef herd. The model is intended as a demonstration tool for veterinarians to use with farmers. The model design process involved user consultation and participation and the model is freely accessible on a dedicated website. The 'user-friendly' model interface allows the input of key assumptions and farm specific parameters enabling model simulations to be tailored to individual farm circumstances. The model simulates the effect of Johne's disease and various measures for its control in terms of herd prevalence and the shedding states of animals within the herd, the financial costs of the disease and of any control measures and the likely benefits of control of Johne's disease for the beef suckler herd over a 10-year period. The model thus helps to make more transparent the 'hidden costs' of Johne's in a herd and the likely benefits to be gained from controlling the disease. The control strategies considered within the model are 'no control', 'testing and culling of diagnosed animals', 'improving management measures' or a dual strategy of 'testing and culling in association with improving management measures'. An example 'run' of the model shows that the strategy 'improving management measures', which reduces infection routes during the early stages, results in a marked fall in herd prevalence and total costs. Testing and culling does little to reduce prevalence and does not reduce total costs over the 10-year period.

Apparent digestibility and nitrogen utilisation of diets based on maize and grass silage fed to beef steers

Substituting grass silage with maize silage in forage mixtures may result in one forage influencing the nutritive value of another in terms of whole tract nutrient digestibility and N utilisation. This experiment investigated effects of four forage combinations being, grass silage (G); 67 g/100 g grass silage + 33 g/100 g maize silage (GGM); 67 g/100 g maize silage + 33 g/100 g grass silage (MMG); maize silage (M). All diets were formulated to be isonitrogenous (22.4 g N/kg dry matter [DM]) using a concentrate mixture. Ration digestibility and N balance was determined using 7 Holstein Friesian steers (mean body weight 411.0 +/- 120.9 kg) in a cross-over design. Inclusion of maize silage in the diet had a positive linear effect on forage and total DM intake (P = 0.001), and on apparent DM and organic matter digestibility (both P = 0.048). Regardless of the silage ratio used, the metabolisable energy concentration of maize silage was calculated to be higher than that of grass silage (P = 0.058), and linearly related to the relative proportions of the two silages in the forage mixture. Inclusion of maize silage in the diet resulted in a linear decline in the apparent digestibility of starch (P = 0.022), neutral detergent fibre (P < 0.001) and acid detergent fibre (P = 0.003). Nitrogen retention, expressed as amount retained per day or in terms of body weight (g/100 kg) increased linearly with maize inclusion (P = 0.047 and 0.046, respectively). Replacing grass silage with maize silage caused linear responses according to the proportions of each forage in the diet, and that there were no associative effects of combining forages. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Intake, live-weight gain and carcass characteristics of beef cattle given diets based on forage maize silage harvested at different stages of maturity

Advancing maturity of forage maize is associated with increases in the proportion of dry matter (DM) and starch, and decreases in the proportions of structural carbohydrates in the ensiled crop. This experiment investigated the effects of three maize silages of 291 (low), 339 (medium) and 393 (high) g DM per kg fresh weight on the performance of 48 Simmental. Holstein-Friesian cattle. Equal numbers of steers (mean start weight = 503 (s.d. 31.3) kg) and heifers (mean start weight = 378 (s.d. 11.2) kg) were offered individually isonitrogenous diets composed of the three silages plus a protein supplement with minerals once daily until slaughter at the target live weight of 575 and 475 kg for steers and heifers, respectively. Intake was reduced on the low diet (P < 0.01) compared with the other two treatments. Dietary starch intake increased by a total of 1 kg/day between low and medium diets but by only 0.2 kg/day between medium and high diets. Unlike starch intake, total neutral-detergent fibre intake showed no significant difference (P > 0.05) between diets. There were no differences in live-weight gain between treatments but differences (P < 0.05) in food conversion efficiency indicated relative gains of 115, 100 and 102 g gain per kg DM intake for diets low, medium and high, respectively. There were no differences between diets in carcass weights, fat score and overall conformation.

Unravelling the rationale of 'overgrazing' and stocking rates in the beef production systems of Central Brazil using a bi-criteria compromise programming model

In Central Brazil, the long-term sustainability of beef cattle systems is under threat over vast tracts of farming areas, as more than half of the 50 million hectares of sown pastures are suffering from degradation. Overgrazing practised to maintain high stocking rates is regarded as one of the main causes. High stocking rates are deliberate and crucial decisions taken by the farmers, which appear paradoxical, even irrational given the state of knowledge regarding the consequences of overgrazing. The phenomenon however appears inextricably linked with the objectives that farmers hold. In this research those objectives were elicited first and from their ranking two, ‘asset value of cattle (representing cattle ownership)' and ‘present value of economic returns', were chosen to develop an original bi-criteria Compromise Programming model to test various hypotheses postulated to explain the overgrazing behaviour. As part of the model a pasture productivity index is derived to estimate the pasture recovery cost. Different scenarios based on farmers' attitudes towards overgrazing, pasture costs and capital availability were analysed. The results of the model runs show that benefits from holding more cattle can outweigh the increased pasture recovery and maintenance costs. This result undermines the hypothesis that farmers practise overgrazing because they are unaware or uncaring about overgrazing costs. An appropriate approach to the problem of pasture degradation requires information on the economics, and its interplay with farmers' objectives, for a wide range of pasture recovery and maintenance methods. Seen within the context of farmers' objectives, some level of overgrazing appears rational. Advocacy of the simple ‘no overgrazing' rule is an insufficient strategy to maintain the long-term sustainability of the beef production systems in Central Brazil.

Unravelling the rationale of 'overgrazing' and stocking rates in the beef production systems of Central Brazil using a bi-criteria compromise programming model

In Central Brazil, the long-term, sustainability of beef cattle systems is under threat over vast tracts of farming areas, as more than half of the 50 million hectares of sown pastures are suffering from. degradation. Overgrazing practised to maintain high stocking rates is regarded as one of the main causes. High stocking rates are deliberate and crucial decisions taken by the farmers, which appear paradoxical, even irrational given the state of knowledge regarding the consequences of overgrazing. The phenomenon however appears inextricably linked with the objectives that farmers hold. In this research those objectives were elicited first and from their ranking two, 'asset value of cattle (representing cattle ownership and 'present value of economic returns', were chosen to develop an original bi-criteria Compromise Programming model to test various hypotheses postulated to explain the overgrazing behaviour. As part of the model a pasture productivity index is derived to estimate the pasture recovery cost. Different scenarios based on farmers' attitudes towards overgrazing, pasture costs and capital availability were analysed. The results of the model runs show that benefits from holding more cattle can outweigh the increased pasture recovery and maintenance costs. This result undermines the hypothesis that farmers practise overgrazing because they are unaware or uncaring caring about overgrazing costs. An appropriate approach to the problem of pasture degradation requires information on the economics,and its interplay with farmers' objectives, for a wide range of pasture recovery and maintenance methods. Seen within the context of farmers' objectives, some level of overgrazing appears rational. Advocacy of the simple 'no overgrazing' rule is an insufficient strategy to maintain the long-term sustainability of the beef production systems in Central Brazil. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.